10th Annual White Christmas Thread!

Its changed to slightly colder on latest guidance. 8c would be likely from that. Far from set in stone yet.

Whatever the models are showing now, there is likely to be a strong disturbance somewhere near Ireland around the 25th or 26th. It's a very tightly supported new moon energy peak. This sort of pattern where there are frequent mixings of old arctic air in a fast westerly usually lend themselves to model confusion and a generally milder outcome than you might expect from thickness patterns alone. The air may have low thicknesses but it has been over the Atlantic for days and has to adapt to that near the surface at least.

Output past ten days in this set-up isn't very likely to verify well, as energy cycles are short and small changes upstream will ripple into larger changes downstream.

Would expect it to be mild and then rain and strong southwesterly winds will arrive at some point during the 25th.

This morning's ensembles offerings for Christmas Eve Night:

EPS:



GEFS:


No real clear signal yet for Ireland, though both models seem to be increasing the odds for a average to slightly warmer to about 60%/40%. All swings and roundabouts at this stage. Seems to be a clearer trend for Europe, with warmer than average over much of the central belt, but some signs of something cooler for the northern and eastern extremities.

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

MT is speculating on whether 11 days away using his expertise and experience. He may well be right. Im just saying what the models say. What the models say is fact, whether they are right is a whole different ball game...

Bold statement that,
Saying what the models say is fact.
Models are not facts ,they are as in there name modeling what the weather could do

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Reread what I said. I said it is a statement of fact what the models actually say, whether what they say is right or completely wrong.

Rebellbrowser you stated in your post
"What the models say is fact"

Logan Roy wrote: »

Doesn't make him any more correct. Computers can't predict the weather 11 days accurately, ridiculous to think a person can.

This is absolutely correct.

There are no mystic megs.

We can only go on trends presented to us by the raw data at time zero which is run through the models which in turn gives the predictions.

Nobody can forecast with any reasonable accuracy more than 7 - 10 days ahead. The very best you can do is extrapolate some vague trend and that can only be done through consistency of output across all models - a rare event in itself at that range.

In my view everyone should be sticking within the 12 day time frame (and even that is pushing it) at the very maximum.

But, look, different strokes and all that. If some want to give it a go more power to them and sometimes it will come off but it will always be very vague at that range.

I don't see the merit at all except maybe under extreme circumstance such as a sudden strat warming or something like that otherwise it a futile exercise.

Met eireann said the cold conditions would continue for the early part of the coming week and then there would be a slight temporary reprieve,wonder are they seeing something along the lines Kermit is alluding to in the above chart