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House Prices 2021

1235

Comments

  • #122
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    DubCount wrote: »
    The rental market is even more uncertain than the property sale market. Lots of short term rentals available with students not in college, workers working from home, and short term lets through Airbnb etc looking for short term deals until tourism returns. The rental market of 6 months time could be very different, especially as unemployment fuels more HAP approved tenants looking for rentals. Besides, luxury rentals in Grand Canal Docks is hardly a typical rental.

    I didnt say it was a typical rental. It was dropped from 3k a month to 1600 for a 2 bed. The data shows the volume of rental property is stockpiling at a rate of knots. I'd suggest the rental sector is a leading indicator. The fact that the top of the market is falling in price fastest is interesting point too.


  • #123
    polaco
    Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭polaco


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    I didnt say it was a typical rental. It was dropped from 3k a month to 1600 for a 2 bed. The data shows the volume of rental property is stockpiling at a rate of knots. I'd suggest the rental sector is a leading indicator. The fact that the top of the market is falling in price fastest is interesting point too.

    I checked all apartments in this area and none of them are cost 1600.
    I have been checking daft I have applied for few places but prices still strong is very hard to find something below 1900 mark.
    Looks to me like people still willing to pay 2k for apartments only today 15 apartments from my list (saved search) are gone.


  • #124
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    polaco wrote: »
    I checked all apartments in this area and none of them are cost 1600.
    I have been checking daft I have applied for few places but prices still strong is very hard to find something below 1900 mark.
    Looks to me like people still willing to pay 2k for apartments only today 15 apartments from my list (saved search) are gone.

    I PMd you the details. Obviously there is no guarantee it's still available...


  • #125
    jim-mcdee
    Registered Users Posts: 373 ✭✭jim-mcdee


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    Large amounts who would have been in a position to buy , havent lost their jobs and are currently likely to be able to save substantially more than pre virus.

    Haven't lost their jobs "yet" is what you mean


  • #126
    luckycat007
    Registered Users Posts: 36 ✭luckycat007


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    Excellent advice above, we started something similar several months back and it was very helpful (although not as detailed as above).

    We are signing hopefully early next week. Its quite nerve racking to be honest! We are sale agreed at well below asking (>50k), which should cushion the drop (if there is one?), and below what other properties have gone for recently in the area...... but I still have a niggling feeling there might be more to cut off it!

    Girlfriend happy to push ahead, we've been looking for nearly a year and the mortgage will be less than our current rent and ~20% combined income. All very affordable currently.

    I'll hopefully be in the new house in a few weeks, sipping on a beer in my garden and I can forget about this forum and the impending doom keeping me up at night :)

    Sheriff what % off asking does your 50K represent?


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  • #127
    antimatterx
    Registered Users Posts: 2,647 ✭✭✭antimatterx


    I actually feel hopeless. I only have 20K saved, and it feels like its taking forever to save. FML.


  • #128
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    It's now almost July and none of the apocalyptic predictions about price collapse have materialized. We are moving into the second half of the year when prices tend to slow down a bit regardless. I'm expecting to see a seasonal price decrease in Q4 just because it happens regularly.
    Jobs were lost months ago, lock down is nearly over, business are gong to reopen. Whatever was expected to happen didn't have the magnitude than most - including me - expected
    I'm planning to buy around Q4 because it's normally more convenient, I have zero expectations about the effect of Covid and economic crise on the house market


  • #129
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users Posts: 5,151 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    It's now almost July and none of the apocalyptic predictions about price collapse have materialized. We are moving into the second half of the year when prices tend to slow down a bit regardless. I'm expecting to see a seasonal price decrease in Q4 just because it happens regularly.
    Jobs were lost months ago, lock down is nearly over, business are gong to reopen. Whatever was expected to happen didn't have the magnitude than most - including me - expected
    I'm planning to buy around Q4 because it's normally more convenient, I have zero expectations about the effect of Covid and economic crise on the house market

    There's a major recession going to happen, budget deficit is massive so there will be expenditure cuts and taxes will increase. There are businesses closed for good in every village and town in the country, the price of houses is currently the highest it will be for a decade.


  • #130
    Pkiernan
    Registered Users Posts: 4,315 ✭✭✭Pkiernan


    The population is increasing.

    Building of new houses is at a standstill.

    Tell me why house prices (not rent) will fall?


  • #131
    antimatterx
    Registered Users Posts: 2,647 ✭✭✭antimatterx


    Pkiernan wrote: »
    The population is increasing.

    Building of new houses is at a standstill.

    Tell me why house prices (not rent) will fall?

    People have less money, and less access to credit than they did 3 months ago.

    If any who had mortgage approval was put on the wage subsidy scheme, approval was withdrawn. That means less people buying houses right now, and won't be for the next year or so.


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  • #132
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Widdensushi wrote: »
    There's a major recession going to happen, budget deficit is massive so there will be expenditure cuts and taxes will increase. There are businesses closed for good in every village and town in the country, the price of houses is currently the highest it will be for a decade.


    All of that has been around for months now and still no signs of trend changes. I have a feeling that most people have cash and are entering the market while other are exiting due to lack of credit from banks. As a result the market will stay unchanged


  • #133
    WeeCuppaCha
    Registered Users Posts: 96 ✭✭WeeCuppaCha


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    All of that has been around for months now and still no signs of trend changes. I have a feeling that most people have cash and are entering the market while other are exiting due to lack of credit from banks. As a result the market will stay unchanged

    I think that the market is being maintained at current/pre-Covid levels (with even higher asking prices in some instances) by Mortgage approvals which were granted pre lockdown. Not to mention EAs chancing their arms and expecting offers below asking.

    People are, I feel, trying to get purchases over the line before offers expire. Particularly if they feel their future earnings are in jeopardy. Those approvals will be running out in August at the latest. Then the market should be more realistic.

    Or I could be totally wrong and nothing will change! I just don’t logically see how that can be though. Exemptions are for the most part gone. People are still in receipt of the wage subsidy, making them unable to get mortgage approval. And, of course, true unemployment levels have yet to become apparent.

    I understand your frustration, I’m in a similar situation. However, patience in needed now. It’s very, very early days.


  • #134
    Walnut Salad
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 34 ✭Walnut Salad


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    It's now almost July and none of the apocalyptic predictions about price collapse have materialized. We are moving into the second half of the year when prices tend to slow down a bit regardless. I'm expecting to see a seasonal price decrease in Q4 just because it happens regularly.
    Jobs were lost months ago, lock down is nearly over, business are gong to reopen. Whatever was expected to happen didn't have the magnitude than most - including me - expected
    I'm planning to buy around Q4 because it's normally more convenient, I have zero expectations about the effect of Covid and economic crise on the house market

    I am not sure if you are serious but it much too early to predict the economic impact of Covid-19. There will always be a lag from the start of the shock and the government is pumping serious cash into the economy. If you do buy a house in Q4, the odds are that it will be worth a lot less by Q4 the following year. We could be in the middle of a 2nd wave in Q4 but fire ahead if you are feeling lucky.


  • #135
    bdmc5
    Closed Accounts Posts: 149 ✭✭bdmc5


    Walnut Salad wrote: »
    I am not sure if you are serious but it much too early to predict the economic impact of Covid-19. There will always be a lag from the start of the shock and the government is pumping serious cash into the economy. If you do buy a house in Q4, the odds are that it will be worth a lot less by Q4 the following year. We could be in the middle of a 2nd wave in Q4 but fire ahead if you are feeling lucky.

    I know you are basing your guess around off the uncertainty of Covid but you underestimate the demand for quality housing right now. Week by week the Reality is the uncertainty is clearing and thousands are going back to work as we accelerate through easing of restrictions.

    It’s strange people seem to leave out the other side of the coin there are literally hundreds of thousands of people not financially impacted by covd19. People working in a large Irish companies and multinationals companies are working from home continuing to save money.

    The people saying house prices will drop clearly are clearly not in the market now as if they were they would see how packed house viewings are and competitive bidding is here in the Cork market. There’s also many greed fuelled vested interest in this country keeping prices high (Developers , Banks etc ) so I think people praying for even minor price drops will be very disappointed. There is pent up demand and I think any price dips will reflect a very small pool of motivated sellers.


  • #136
    FernandoTorres
    Registered Users Posts: 647 ✭✭✭FernandoTorres


    There's some seriously naive posts on here. I've no issue with anyone who thinks that prices won't fall significantly but you have to have some reasoning behind it backed up with facts.



    There's a lot of posts saying that there hasn't been any affect yet and people who've lost their jobs are in hospitality etc who won't be buying houses anyway. I think that shows complete ignorance of the situation. The economy is on life support at the moment and only when that is withdrawn will we see the full effect. Businesses don't just throw in the towel at the first sign of trouble, they'll go on as long as they can but ultimately there is going to be mass corporate insolvencies. This isn't my opinion, it's backed up by the data and predictions from the likes of the IMF, ESRI, FED etc.


    The companies that go to the wall will not just be hotels and restaurants. There are big multinational companies too who have unsustainable debts and will have to cut down massively over the next few years which will impact Irish jobs in all sectors. Already in Australia last week Qantas announced it's cutting 20% of its workforce, Deloitte have laid off 700 with hundreds more gone in the rest of the Big 4 and these are just the first movers. No reason to think the same won't happen in Ireland.


    In terms of property, by all means buy if you have the money and know you want to live there for the long-term but I'd be very cautious around how much debt you take on.


  • #137
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    FernandoTorres wrote: »
    There's some seriously naive posts on here. I've no issue with anyone who thinks that prices won't fall significantly but you have to have some reasoning behind it backed up with facts.



    There's a lot of posts saying that there hasn't been any affect yet and people who've lost their jobs are in hospitality etc who won't be buying houses anyway. I think that shows complete ignorance of the situation. The economy is on life support at the moment and only when that is withdrawn will we see the full effect. Businesses don't just throw in the towel at the first sign of trouble, they'll go on as long as they can but ultimately there is going to be mass corporate insolvencies. This isn't my opinion, it's backed up by the data and predictions from the likes of the IMF, ESRI, FED etc.


    The companies that go to the wall will not just be hotels and restaurants. There are big multinational companies too who have unsustainable debts and will have to cut down massively over the next few years which will impact Irish jobs in all sectors. Already in Australia last week Qantas announced it's cutting 20% of its workforce, Deloitte have laid off 700 with hundreds more gone in the rest of the Big 4 and these are just the first movers. No reason to think the same won't happen in Ireland.


    In terms of property, by all means buy if you have the money and know you want to live there for the long-term but I'd be very cautious around how much debt you take on.

    There are lots fact based reasoning behind why Property Prices this time won't fall significantly. There was provided many around Supply/Demand. You need to look from both sides, instead picking only the ones that cause price decrease.
    More than that there are no any base case scenario predictions showing significant fall in Irish Property price.


  • #138
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭combat14


    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/no-free-lunch-on-coronavirus-cash-payments-1.4289771?mode=amp

    thousands owed back to the taxman for covid 19 to be paid back in 2021 and 2020 ..

    the pain has still to be felt yet


  • #139
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    combat14 wrote: »
    thousands owed back to the taxman for covid 19 to be paid back in 2021 and 2020 ..

    Not quite what the article says
    Revenue is still working out how to deal with it. Bills may be spread over the whole of 2021 and possibly also 2022.


  • #140
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,485 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Marius34 wrote:
    There are lots fact based reasoning behind why Property Prices this time won't fall significantly.
    In using the phrase "this time*, would you be of the opinion that current prices and rents are unsustainable.

    Supply demand imbalance can be resolved easily if the political will was there

    The most green policy the country could have is to have adequate housing close to places of work. This would allow workers to easily make their way to work via green methods. Where this proves too expensive, we could bring the workplace closer to where people live through the provision of work hubs in regional centres

    There are multiple solutions to supply demand imbalance. I look forward to pressing the green party should we continue with more of the same policies that have exacerbated the problem over the last 10 years


  • #141
    Steven81
    Registered Users Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭Steven81


    Due to most companies not having to pay their employees by claiming the TWSS the impact won’t be felt immediately but week by week I am hearing of places letting people go.

    There will certainly be a lot less money going around this time next year and a high unemployment rate but with regards to house prices I don’t think they will change too much, there are very few houses for sale and nothing being built, looking at numbers who are renting some will definitely be looking to buy if possible as it would be probably be cheaper than current rent.


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  • #142
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭combat14


    Graham wrote: »
    Not quite what the article says

    the vast majority of these one million-plus people will owe the Revenue Commissioners money for the cash bailout they got.

    Balancing statements carrying the bad news will drop through letter boxes across the State. And the sums will be significant – thousands of euro in many cases.


  • #143
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    combat14 wrote: »
    the vast majority of these one million-plus people will owe the Revenue Commissioners money for the cash bailout they got.

    Balancing statements carrying the bad news will drop through letter boxes across the State. And the sums will be significant – thousands of euro in many cases.

    So what’s your point? Personal responsibility to know this when they receive the subsidy. Do people think its free money?


  • #144
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Villa05 wrote: »
    In using the phrase "this time*, would you be of the opinion that current prices and rents are unsustainable.

    Supply demand imbalance can be resolved easily if the political will was there

    The most green policy the country could have is to have adequate housing close to places of work. This would allow workers to easily make their way to work via green methods. Where this proves too expensive, we could bring the workplace closer to where people live through the provision of work hubs in regional centres

    There are multiple solutions to supply demand imbalance. I look forward to pressing the green party should we continue with more of the same policies that have exacerbated the problem over the last 10 years

    How do you deal with the NIMBYs objecting to every single development deemed to be too “dense”? Even the clown Obrion objects. Irish people love to whine and moan and complain but at the same time play no part in the solutions. We are world class at it.


  • #145
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Villa05 wrote: »
    In using the phrase "this time*, would you be of the opinion that current prices and rents are unsustainable.

    Supply demand imbalance can be resolved easily if the political will was there

    The most green policy the country could have is to have adequate housing close to places of work. This would allow workers to easily make their way to work via green methods. Where this proves too expensive, we could bring the workplace closer to where people live through the provision of work hubs in regional centres

    There are multiple solutions to supply demand imbalance. I look forward to pressing the green party should we continue with more of the same policies that have exacerbated the problem over the last 10 years

    Rents looks very high in Ireland, which shows a lack of living space, supply, competition. But if there are no big emigration, and increase in residential construction, in my opinion the price might stay like this for long.

    Regarding the politics, it's just politics that i'm not in position to speculate what will happen. I believe there is more populism, than real solutions on the housing. The only real solutions for housing is something that is based for long term, which would lead to increase in construction supplies.


  • #146
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,555 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Marius34 wrote: »
    Regarding the politics, it's just politics that i'm not in position to speculate what will happen. I believe there is more populism, than real solutions on the housing. The only real solutions for housing is something that is based for long term, which would lead to increase in construction supplies.
    Any policy that properly addresses the housing problem will inevitably cause the price of existing stock to fall, so there will be political pressure against these policies. Remember seeing a 2014 video of Michael Noonan talking about getting house prices back up..


  • #147
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,485 ✭✭✭Villa05


    PommieBast wrote:
    Any policy that properly addresses the housing problem will inevitably cause the price of existing stock to fall, so there will be political pressure against these policies. Remember seeing a 2014 video of Michael Noonan talking about getting house prices back up..


    Its like a drug you know it will hurt you and especially your children, but you just want more and more

    John B Keane was bang on. Our relationship with land is disturbing


  • #148
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,331 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    PommieBast wrote: »
    Any policy that properly addresses the housing problem will inevitably cause the price of existing stock to fall, so there will be political pressure against these policies. Remember seeing a 2014 video of Michael Noonan talking about getting house prices back up..

    That's because there was a need to kick start the Irish housing market again. Developers couldn't afford to build and owners couldn't afford to sell.


  • #149
    Treppen
    Registered Users Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭Treppen


    Marius34 wrote: »
    Rents looks very high in Ireland, which shows a lack of living space, supply, competition. But if there are no big emigration, and increase in residential construction, in my opinion the price might stay like this for long.

    Regarding the politics, it's just politics that i'm not in position to speculate what will happen. I believe there is more populism, than real solutions on the housing. The only real solutions for housing is something that is based for long term, which would lead to increase in construction supplies.

    It's early to say yet , I think things will hit in September when hopefully the covid tide goes out, and who gets to go back to work, spends discretionary money in restaurants etc.

    Most recent Daft report for Dublin says that New For Sale Listings are down 73%... but at the same time supply is limited, so prices have barely seen a small dip!!! Of course people are definitely holding off, but supply in different areas is the key influencing factor, if that aint there then why would prices fall?

    I reckon the rental sector for the hospitality industry workers will dive and maybe we'll see that converted to sales for families etc. instead of rentals. Which might help the first time buyers in more stable jobs have a better selection than previously.

    Might not be so good for anyone trading up though as here the higher bracket homes will probably remain as is.

    Maybe?!?


  • #150
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,555 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    awec wrote: »
    That's because there was a need to kick start the Irish housing market again. Developers couldn't afford to build and owners couldn't afford to sell.
    Understandable in 2014 but I have seen no real change of direction since.


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  • #151
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    Might not be so good for anyone trading up though as here the higher bracket homes will probably remain as is.

    Maybe?!?[/quote]

    This is most unlikely! Higher bracket homes have struggled since the market peek in mid 2018. Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown fell 7.1% in 2019 and that’s one of the most expensive regions. Given the removal of exemptions I would expect sub 400k homes to hold relatively steady and above to struggle, especially anything above 600k

    https://www.irishtimes.com/1.4113172


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