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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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    #4412
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »
    For me the most interesting aspect of today was the news that Liam Fox, the International Trade secretary, is seemingly supporting this agreement. If the UK were to find itself in a customs arrangement for the long term then he wouldn't be able to do many of the international deals he's been pushing for years now, notably the US one.

    The fact he doesn't seem alarmed about this suggests to me that the Tory leadership would now be prepared to leave NI even tighter within the EU's orbit at some stage down the line in order to strike those deals abroad; and I understand this is permissible under the flexibility of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    So perhaps the DUP have eroded all goodwill. The sniping at May, and throwing their weight around towards the Tories, have had consequences as Arlene Foster would say.

    I've always suspected if it came down to a choice between trade, and solidarity with NI unionists, that the latter would be shafted. It's the Tory way.

    Thats it. Find agreement and buy some time, then jettison NI down the line - trigger the backstop to the backstop.


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    #4413
    Folkstonian
    Closed Accounts Posts: 421 ✭✭Folkstonian


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Still interesting though that instead of the 2 scenarios oft repeated: ‘a deal or no deal’, we now have a 3rd: ‘no Brexit’ straight out of TM’s mouth. Apparently those that want a 2nd referendum have got a big lift from it. Meanwhile Fiona Mitchell, RTE’s London correspondent, in a debate on BBC’s Newsnight doesn’t believe this deal will make it through the HoC.

    I think most interpreted the ‘staying inside the EU’ line as more of a thinly veiled threat to her own Eurosceptic MPs that it’s either her way or no Brexit at all.

    Desperate times for her, I just think she’s in her final hours as PM.


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    #4414
    BoatMad
    Registered Users Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    It goes back to the underlying concept of the EEC/EU as a force for peace and stability on the continent, letting them change their mind and welcoming them back into the club is consistent with that. Being a net contributor is also a help.

    I think the 'names' in the EU (and the prime ministers of the big countries) have generally been united in a 'no-one actually wants you to leave' message over the last 2 years.

    I agree, if the UK woke up and said , opps sorry about that anytime during what will be most likely a very long transition period, I think the 27 would happily allow them to not exit and remain in the EU


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    #4415
    BoatMad
    Registered Users Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    Folkstonian wrote: »
    I think most interpreted the ‘staying inside the EU’ line as more of a thinly veiled threat to her own Eurosceptic MPs that it’s either her way or no Brexit at all.

    Desperate times for her, I just think she’s in her final hours as PM.

    if you read the draft agreement , the UK is in effect staying within the EU for all practical purposes during the transition period, it remains in the SM and CU and pays into the budget etc and it allows EU citizens right to reside and work in the UK ( permanently ) once they are resident during the transition period ! ( so no control over EU nationals migrating )


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    #4416
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,868 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    With NIRL access to EU and UK markets with this deal does that not give business up there massive advantage over those down here as they can source goods with less or no tariffs?


    Like us they will be in the CU and the SM, so no advantage over us.
    The advantage they could get is as faik not being in the euro zone there would be no EU budget oversight, (unlikely as England Scotland and Wales would raise hell), Westminster could reduce taxes in NI to make it not just attractive for businesses to set up but also for shoppers to go north.
    Not sure if the EU could do anything about that if they did ?


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    #4417
    Hurrache
    Registered Users Posts: 10,148 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Patricia McKenna on The Tonight Show was fairly animated and angry at the Irish government for what she says was taking a hard-line stance against Britain and for making life difficult for them and not facilitating an easy negotiation between them and the EU.


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    #4418
    s3rtvdbwfj81ch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭s3rtvdbwfj81ch


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Like us they will be in the CU and the SM, so no advantage over us.
    The advantage they could get is as faik not being in the euro zone there would be no EU budget oversight, (unlikely as England Scotland and Wales would raise hell), Westminster could reduce taxes in NI to make it not just attractive for businesses to set up but also for shoppers to go north.
    Not sure if the EU could do anything about that if they did ?

    one of the first paragraphs in the agreement is that both parties will act in "good faith" - doing the above could be construed to be going against that


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    #4419
    BoatMad
    Registered Users Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Like us they will be in the CU and the SM, so no advantage over us.
    The advantage they could get is as faik not being in the euro zone there would be no EU budget oversight, (unlikely as England Scotland and Wales would raise hell), Westminster could reduce taxes in NI to make it not just attractive for businesses to set up but also for shoppers to go north.
    Not sure if the EU could do anything about that if they did ?

    you are forgetting something , this current deal really only deals with the transition period , what happens after that is completely unclear. Given the UK needs a trade deal with the EU , such deals could take many years to put together ( 10+ ?) , hence in effect the UK will have to extend the transition period until such a deal is concluded as the alternative is a no trade deal with the EU

    Hence for the transition period both NI and GB are in the SM/CU , hence the status quo prevails


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    #4420
    daheff
    Registered Users Posts: 5,833 ✭✭✭daheff


    Folkstonian wrote: »

    Desperate times for her, I just think she’s in her final hours as PM.
    She was always only going to be PM until the brexit negotiations were done. Shes been the patsy for Brexit deal from the day she got elected PM.


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    #4421
    BoatMad
    Registered Users Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    Originally Posted by Folkstonian View Post

    Desperate times for her, I just think she’s in her final hours as PM.

    Yes but there is no alternative , changing leader would achieve nothing , the UKs cards are on the table and have been revealed to have nothing , its clear they desperately want a deal with the EU and thats leaves the EU with the whip hand


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    #4422
    daheff
    Registered Users Posts: 5,833 ✭✭✭daheff


    BoatMad wrote: »
    I agree, if the UK woke up and said , opps sorry about that anytime during what will be most likely a very long transition period, I think the 27 would happily allow them to not exit and remain in the EU

    Not sure they would. Theres a sizeable sentiment in EU that are fed up with the UK attitude to EU. I think at this point if the UK want to stay, then they are going to have to go all in....including accepting the EURO.


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    #4423
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,868 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »
    For me the most interesting aspect of today was the news that Liam Fox, the International Trade secretary, is seemingly supporting this agreement. If the UK were to find itself in a customs arrangement for the long term then he wouldn't be able to do many of the international deals he's been pushing for years now, notably the US one.

    The fact he doesn't seem alarmed about this suggests to me that the Tory leadership would now be prepared to leave NI even tighter within the EU's orbit at some stage down the line in order to strike those deals abroad; and I understand this is permissible under the flexibility of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    So perhaps the DUP have eroded all goodwill. The sniping at May, and throwing their weight around towards the Tories, have had consequences as Arlene Foster would say.

    I've always suspected if it came down to a choice between trade, and solidarity with NI unionists, that the latter would be shafted. It's the Tory way.


    If that was his thinking then I don`t see why they would not have done it as part of this agreement.
    Same outcome as far as DUP support goes and there would have been no need to tie themselves into this CU which is looking like the straw that will break this deal as far as the Tory`sat least are concerned.


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    #4424
    BoatMad
    Registered Users Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    daheff wrote: »
    Not sure they would. Theres a sizeable sentiment in EU that are fed up with the UK attitude to EU. I think at this point if the UK want to stay, then they are going to have to go all in....including accepting the EURO.

    The large countries dont want the UK to leave and they would hold sway , I see no issue in allowing the UK to scrape the process, particulkary within what might be a very long transition period ( and in which according to this deal , very little would change anyway )


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    #4425
    Headshot
    Registered Users Posts: 53,836 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    I'm ****ing delighted to seeing DUP getting burnt


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    #4426
    Anthracite
    Closed Accounts Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Anthracite


    Hurrache wrote: »
    Patricia McKenna on The Tonight Show was fairly animated and angry at the Irish government for what she says was taking a hard-line stance against Britain and for making life difficult for them and not facilitating an easy negotiation between them and the EU.

    She's a contrarian. It's hard to believe she's really that naive.


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    #4427
    s3rtvdbwfj81ch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭s3rtvdbwfj81ch


    Anthracite wrote: »
    She's a contrarian. It's hard to believe she's really that naive.

    a contrarian on an Ivan Yates show!?!?!?! :eek:


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    #4428
    Hurrache
    Registered Users Posts: 10,148 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Anthracite wrote: »
    She's a contrarian. It's hard to believe she's really that naive.

    I think you're right there.


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    #4429
    BoatMad
    Registered Users Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    whats entirely bizarre , is the referendum never mandated the UK to leave the CU/SM, the transition deal largely keeps them inside these scenarios , Its very unclear just exactly what the UK have "negotiated " , it reads like ( you will pay into the budget , you'll stay in the SM/CU, allow EU citizens to live and work etc )

    Bizarre


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    #4430
    daheff
    Registered Users Posts: 5,833 ✭✭✭daheff


    BoatMad wrote: »
    The large countries dont want the UK to leave and they would hold sway , I see no issue in allowing the UK to scrape the process, particulkary within what might be a very long transition period ( and in which according to this deal , very little would change anyway )

    They only want access to the UK market. Not the rest of the baggage the UK bring....otherwise they'd bend over to give them a good deal leaving.


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    #4431
    For Forks Sake
    Registered Users Posts: 11,471 ✭✭✭✭For Forks Sake


    Hurrache wrote: »
    Patricia McKenna on The Tonight Show was fairly animated and angry at the Irish government for what she says was taking a hard-line stance against Britain and for making life difficult for them and not facilitating an easy negotiation between them and the EU.

    She's a blithering idiot, thankfully she only rears her head very five years or so with some nonsensical viewpoint or other.


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    #4432
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,189 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »
    I've always suspected if it came down to a choice between trade, and solidarity with NI unionists, that the latter would be shafted. It's the Tory way.

    That is always the way. If there was a hard Brexit and it came down for us to staying in the EU or keeping solidarity with NI nationalists and leave the EU, we would shaft the NI nationalists and put in a hard border.

    Anyone who thinks otherwise is naive.


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    #4433
    BoatMad
    Registered Users Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    daheff wrote: »
    They only want access to the UK market. Not the rest of the baggage the UK bring....otherwise they'd bend over to give them a good deal leaving.

    in General the EU establishment dont want the UK to leave , they are actually regarded as " Good Europeans " at EU commission level. There would be considerable goodwill , if they wanted to reverse the process, and it has already been decided that Article 50 could be reversed


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    #4434
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    With NIRL access to EU and UK markets with this deal does that not give business up there massive advantage over those down here as they can source goods with less or no tariffs?


    There is an EU UK customs union. There will not, in general, be different tariffs. Nor can NI businesses import dodgy goods even if Britain allows it.



    However NI should remain within both the EU and UK VAT systems and that would help.


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    #4435
    BoatMad
    Registered Users Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    There is an EU UK customs union. There will not, in general, be different tariffs. Nor can NI businesses import dodgy goods even if Britain allows it.



    However NI should remain within both the EU and UK VAT systems and that would help.

    Actually during the transition period the UK is abiding by, in essence all the directives establishing the CU/SM ( including the VAT directive ) .it is in essence not actually leaving the current SM/CU

    remember this agreement is solely concerned with the transition period , it does not detail what will happen if ( ever) the transition period ends !


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    #4436
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,868 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    BoatMad wrote: »
    you are forgetting something , this current deal really only deals with the transition period , what happens after that is completely unclear. Given the UK needs a trade deal with the EU , such deals could take many years to put together ( 10+ ?) , hence in effect the UK will have to extend the transition period until such a deal is concluded as the alternative is a no trade deal with the EU

    Hence for the transition period both NI and GB are in the SM/CU , hence the status quo prevails


    This deal only leaves NI in both the CU and the SM. GB would only be in the CU. Not really mentioned so far but in reality there would be a border in the Irish Sea.

    NI will still be territorially British so like any other country the can set whatever tax rates they like faik.


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    #4437
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭McGiver


    gunny123 wrote:
    Maybe, but i was happy with the old eec, i do not want to live in the "united states of europe", thanks. I would hate to see ireland as a mere county in the massive country called europe.

    And County Kerry in massive country called Republic of Ireland is alright I guess.

    United States of Europe is quite far away.

    The EU "federal" budget is <1% EU GDP.
    The US federal budget is 40% US GDP.
    The Canadian federal budget is 20% Canadian GDP.
    The Swiss federal budget is 10% Swiss GDP.
    Long way to go.

    I wouldn't be against a lean con-federation modelled on Swiss federation, or something in between the Canadian and Swiss version, where each state/canton can set their income and corporate tax rates and has high degree of autonomy in other matters. Given the circumstances and fundamentals Swiss type federation is much more likely than the US excessive federal government and powers.


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    #4438
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    blanch152 wrote: »
    That is always the way. If there was a hard Brexit and it came down for us to staying in the EU or keeping solidarity with NI nationalists and leave the EU, we would shaft the NI nationalists and put in a hard border.

    Anyone who thinks otherwise is naive.

    More likely you would follow a complicated procedure to absolve yourself of the NI 'problem' and rid yourself of it.


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    #4439
    BoatMad
    Registered Users Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    charlie14 wrote: »
    This deal only leaves NI in both the CU and the SM. GB would only be in the CU. Not really mentioned so far but in reality there would be a border in the Irish Sea.

    NI will still be territorially British so like any other country the can set whatever tax rates they like faik.

    This is not correct , read the draft agreement , the UK will abide by the VAT directive , and will be treated as a territory with goods in circulation , in essence thats the key aspect of the SM. There is NO differentiation between NI and UK until ( and unless ) the backstop is activated , which it will NOT be during the transition period , because the UK is in essence remaining within the SM and the CU

    The backstop if activated contains provisions that force the UK to in effect keep NI in the SM, however in the context of a final trade deal , which may take years and years , who knows what will actually happen


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    #4440
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,868 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    For Forks Sake wrote: »
    She's a blithering idiot, thankfully she only rears her head very five years or so with some nonsensical viewpoint or other.


    Did some business with her in her school teaching years. Politest I can say, she hasn`t changed a bit since.


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    #4441
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,868 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    BoatMad wrote: »
    This is not correct , read the draft agreement , the UK will abide by the VAT directive , and will be treated as a territory with goods in circulation , in essence thats the key aspect of the SM. There is NO differentiation between NI and UK until ( and unless ) the backstop is activated , which it will NOT be during the transition period , because the UK is in essence remaining within the SM and the CU


    The agreement is that GB plus NI stay in the CU, but effectively only NI remains in the SM. Should GB leave the CU then the backstop comes into play where NI remains "until and unless" there is some other mechanism to keep an open north/south border as per the GFA. In other words even if GB exits the CU NI will remain in the SM.


This discussion has been closed.
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