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13-01-2019, 11:12   #16
Meteorite58
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The change to a colder air mass after the front begins to clear early Wed introducing a more unstable airmass with the passage of upper troughs aiding convection with the possibility of wintry showers on elevated ground and hail and thunder more so in Atlantic Coastal counties. Getting much colder as the day goes on.








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13-01-2019, 22:07   #17
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Pub Run GFS keeping the low as not sliding under currently, only model to do so atm so out on its own and has been for quite a few runs. Will be interesting now to see if it backs down, which hopefully is the case or will the Euro's follow it? (which sometimes happens but usually the other way around if I read everything correctly!).. (Again im still only learning model watching so can't be sure if what I am saying is correct ).. Of course the main stuff isn't until later



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15-01-2019, 18:59   #18
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Colder air arriving behind the cold front, heavy showers with hail and sporadic thunder tomorrow , wintry on higher ground possible.







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15-01-2019, 19:16   #19
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Rainbelts advancing into the cold air mass early Fri morning and looks like producing some snow if somewhat wet and sleety perhaps . Looks like getting up to around 6c in general.Will get a better picture closer to the time.

Looking windy on coast and quite breezy overland giving a substantial windchill.













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15-01-2019, 19:34   #20
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ECM showing some snowfall for Fri, will be interesting to see if any sticks, probably some on hills / mountaians for a time.


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15-01-2019, 22:59   #21
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18Z HIRLAM (short range) calling for some light snow showers/flurries in places on Thursday morning.

It's even better than GFS for the same time range in terms of reaching all levels. Just very little precip around.

Will be very interesting to see what it throws up for Friday this time tomorrow. Only 48hr range on this model.

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15-01-2019, 23:56   #22
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Euro 4 ,AROME and ICON showing it to be gusty tomorrow and possibly squally at times especially in the SW and W. Could be some big downdrafts out of those big clouds.







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16-01-2019, 23:11   #23
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HIRLAM still going for a possibility of very light flurries later tonight into tomorrow. Now followed by more significant "snow" for the west and midlands on Thursday night, but followed immediately by sleet and rain, under -6 and warming uppers. Hard to see anything sticking with both Temp and DP likely to be above zero.

A mess, basically.

Probably safe to say that mountains over 400m or so will look pretty good by Friday though.






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17-01-2019, 21:15   #24
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All Irish airports except Cork and Waterford are forecasting various combinations or probabilities of sleet overnight.
High ground will see snow almost certainly, northwest of a line roughly from Limerick to Dublin to Derry.

Quote:
EIDW (Dublin) 171700Z 1718/1818 22004KT 9999 FEW020 BECMG 1721/1723 17007KT BECMG 1804/1806 16017G29KT -RA BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 1804/1806 -RASN TEMPO 1806/1810 -RA BKN010 BECMG 1808/1810 15022G36KT BECMG 1811/1813 16006KT BKN020
Quote:
EIME (Casement) 172000Z 1721/1806 18006KT 9999 SCT018 BKN040 TEMPO 1802/1806 5000 -RASN BKN010
Quote:
EINN (Shannon) 171700Z 1718/1818 15010KT 9999 FEW030 BECMG 1722/1724 14017G29KT -RA BKN010 TEMPO 1722/1724 -RASN TEMPO 1800/1810 4000 RADZ BKN008 BECMG 1805/1807 16008KT
Quote:
EIKY (Kerry) 171700Z 1718/1721 15007KT 9999 BKN030 TEMPO 1720/1721 -RASN BKN010
Quote:
EISG (Sligo) 172000Z 1721/1806 14005KT 9999 BKN030 BECMG 1723/1801 14015G30KT BECMG 1801/1803 5000 -RA BKN010 TEMPO 1802/1805 -RASN
Quote:
EIKN (Knock) 171700Z 1718/1818 18007KT 9999 BKN030 BECMG 1722/1724 14016G27KT BECMG 1723/1802 3000 -RASN BKN008 TEMPO 1802/1807 1200 RASN BKN002 BECMG 1806/1808 15010KT BECMG 1810/1812 9999 BKN015
Decoded at: https://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/u....php?icao=EIWF


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17-01-2019, 23:08   #25
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The WRF quite representative of the other models giving the first true taste of winter overnight and into the morning this year. Wouldn't be surprised to see reports of some lieing snow on hilly locations in the W and NW early tomorrow. Windy as the front crosses the country in the early hours. Plenty of mountains covered in snow tomorrow morning I would reckon. Good chance to see the accuracy of the model predictions.















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20-01-2019, 15:29   #26
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Ohh a post for under T120

Icon is starting to show a difference towards colder on the 12z run with the high not as far east at 114h, which really means nothing but interesting. Still no confirmation on anything though because the models are all over the place.

12z:


6z:
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20-01-2019, 16:00   #27
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The next hunt for cold coming into range. A northerly for next weekend. Ecm and gfs also have one but not till Sunday. Perhaps the models will firm up on this during the week.
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23-01-2019, 23:38   #28
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Area of LP set to track over Ireland this weekend and later to merge with another area of LP . Set to get very windy through Sat and quite wet under the passage of a cold front . To go from relatively mild temps early Sat to very cold by night as winds switch to a NW'ly direction dragging down Polar airs over the country in a blustery airflow feeding in wintry showers with hail and thunder possible by evening.

Winds will need to be monitored with a deepening low like this . Rough looking day Saturday.











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23-01-2019, 23:50   #29
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WRF 18Z just rolling out

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24-01-2019, 00:47   #30
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This low has come from nowhere yes?

A jet amplified one
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