US Presidential Election 2020

duploelabs · 09-11-2019 7:47pm

Misael Bewildered Sobriety wrote: »

Many of us are still counting the winning change from this type of 'bravado' from a few years ago, Backing Trump about 10/1 on election night was sweeeeet.

From memory another poster (Moneymad) I thinks, backed DT early at 25/1, that thread (closed now) is a real fun read.

Of course his continued success, leaves little room for big early profits any longer. The best price is short, around evens.

Success? how'd you quantify that?

Jesus effing Christ · 10-11-2019 2:37pm

Sanders is the only one on the dem side with an actual large base, who are motivated to get out and vote for his vision for the dem party and the country.
The "whoever beats trump gang" could leave overnight depending on which way the wind blows if you're always looking at independents/moderates, this state and that state, the rust belt, trying to size up what way things will go, all you're looking for is the appearance of a base.
Harris is a perfect example;
A grouping of informed Harris supporters like what they see are willing to overlook certain aspects of her political life and believe others should follow them, to rally around this candidate to beat trump,. Around this grouping gather a group of less informed Harris supporters who don't know all there is to know about the woman.
And in the blink of an eye, one question from Tulsi and it all goes up in smoke.
The exact same will happen with the establishments backup plan; mayor Pete. You might be happy with him, but are you sure your fellow mayor Pete supporters know all there is to know about him.
These are warnings, wait till trump gets hold of the mega phone and the scrutiny intensifies will people actually be motivated to stand in line for bidan
It's best to get it all out in the open now.

is_that_so · 10-11-2019 2:57pm

Jesus effing Christ wrote: »

Sanders is the only one on the dem side with an actual large base, who are motivated to get out and vote for his vision for the dem party and the country.
The "whoever beats trump gang" could leave overnight depending on which way the wind blows if you're always looking at independents/moderates, this state and that state, the rust belt, trying to size up what way things will go, all you're looking for is the appearance of a base.
Harris is a perfect example;
A grouping of informed Harris supporters like what they see are willing to overlook certain aspects of her political life and believe others should follow them, to rally around this candidate to beat trump,. Around this grouping gather a group of less informed Harris supporters who don't know all there is to know about the woman.
And in the blink of an eye, one question from Tulsi and it all goes up in smoke.
The exact same will happen with the establishments backup plan; mayor Pete. You might be happy with him, but are you sure your fellow mayor Pete supporters know all there is to know about him.
These are warnings, wait till trump gets hold of the mega phone and the scrutiny intensifies will people actually be motivated to stand in line for bidan
It's best to get it all out in the open now.

We are down to three realistically at this stage and having your own personal base counts for naught if you cannot get traction with people who are going to be suspicious of you, i.e. those in swing states. At this point, much as I applaud the democratic nature of all these debates, there are too many of them and there's a risk of overexposure that can lead to jaded voters. Oddly enough the "bland" Biden approach seems to be a better route than the increasing pressure to throw up ever more progressive and therefore divisive policies. By primary time they'll have nothing but crazy left and come election time that risk of a second Trump term could be better than evens.

Danzy · 10-11-2019 3:52pm

is_that_so wrote: »

We are down to three realistically at this stage and having your own personal base counts for naught if you cannot get traction with people who are going to be suspicious of you, i.e. those in swing states. At this point, much as I applaud the democratic nature of all these debates, there are too many of them and there's a risk of overexposure that can lead to jaded voters. Oddly enough the "bland" Biden approach seems to be a better route than the increasing pressure to throw up ever more progressive and therefore divisive policies. By primary time they'll have nothing but crazy left and come election time that risk of a second Trump term could be better than evens.

Agreed.

Also agree that many of the candidates are adapting policy positions to garner activist support that will bite them electorally in a Presidential race.

Bernie is not going to make it, he needs freshness to bump higher but is so well known, that will not happen.

Mayor Pete will do well in Iowa, may springboard off that, If he wins it.

Biden is now 3rd in Iowa, it's close but he is still 3rd.

If he loses Iowa, he may well he done.

Jesus effing Christ · 11-11-2019 2:44am

is_that_so wrote: »

We are down to three realistically at this stage .

Exactly

You have to take stock of a candidates "realistic" chance of winning the primary and amoung those with a realistic chance you make your pick who you believe is the best to run the country.
True! you must also consider a candidates electability in the general. But in the absence of any form of conclusive evidence that one candidate is more electable than another it's best just to consider who is the the best candidate.

I think Sanders is probably more electable based on a whole range of factors, I could go on about age groups, various swing states, mid-terms, points dropped, points gained,midterm candidates positions distrust of Washington, the number of factors to consider goes on forever. But for 2020 I wouldn't be able put any one of the 3 candidates above another on general election electabality to consider it a factor.

You along with most of the media are the ones making the jump, the claim, that moderates are automatically more electable . So its you who have to come up with something decent as to why. Nobody's looking for overwhelming evidence just something decent. Remember it was a moderate who lost in 2016.

The mainstream can shout about moderate electabality all day every day, funny how they will never compare progressives candidates to moderates in one o one match ups.
Less and Less people wanna know who has the nicest smile, how many languages do they speak, skin colour, sexual orientation and all that other bull****. people just wanna know what their for, their positions.

rossie1977 · 11-11-2019 8:01am

Couple of recent state polls:

North Carolina, Biden +14 from Warren
Michigan, Biden +9 from Warren
Arizona, Biden +8 from Sanders
Florida, Biden +8 from Warren
Pennsylvania, Biden +12 from Warren
Wisconsin, Warren +2 from Biden
Iowa, Warren +1 from Buttigieg
Nevada, Biden +10 from Warren/Sanders
Maine, Biden +5 from Warren
Texas, Biden +5 from Warren

Quin_Dub · 11-11-2019 11:22am

rossie1977 wrote: »

Couple of recent state polls:

North Carolina, Biden +14 from Warren
Michigan, Biden +9 from Warren
Arizona, Biden +8 from Sanders
Florida, Biden +8 from Warren
Pennsylvania, Biden +12 from Warren
Wisconsin, Warren +2 from Biden
Iowa, Warren +1 from Buttigieg
Nevada, Biden +10 from Warren/Sanders
Maine, Biden +5 from Warren
Texas, Biden +5 from Warren

These really don't mean a lot - It's who can beat Trump in the swing states and actually win the Electoral college.

Biden Sanders Warren
Michigan Evens Sanders +2 Trump +6
Pennsylvania Biden +3 Sanders +1 Even
Wisconsin Biden +3 Sander +2 Even
Florida Biden +2 Trump +1 Trump +4
Arizona Biden +5 Trump +1 Warren +2
North Carolina Trump +2 Trump +3 Trump +3

from here

Beating Trump in National polls is irrelevant , it's mostly driven by big populous blue states like California or New York.

All that matters are those 5 or 6 States and right now , Biden is the only one with anything like a chance there.

But - Bottom line , Trump is still very very competitive in those states so even though he'll lose California and NY etc. by probably record margins , it's still a very close race - But only if it's Biden**

Anybody else , Trump loses the popular vote by probably close to 5M votes but still gets back in because of the Electoral college.

** Based on current polls - hard to tell what happens to those Biden supporters if one of the others get the nomination.

Water John · 11-11-2019 11:57am

One has to factor in, if possible, that those not highly politically engaged would recognise Biden's name above the others. That could easily be 5-10%.

eagle eye · 11-11-2019 12:09pm

Water John wrote:

One has to factor in, if possible, that those not highly politically engaged would recognise Biden's name above the others. That could easily be 5-10%.

Correct, thing is they will tune into one of the debates and if Biden looks like he is struggling then it's over and Trump wins.

Quin_Dub · 11-11-2019 12:26pm

Water John wrote: »

One has to factor in, if possible, that those not highly politically engaged would recognise Biden's name above the others. That could easily be 5-10%.

I'd buy that argument for someone like Pete Buttegieg but Warren and Sanders?

You'd have to be living under a rock not to know them. I totally get the "low information voter" but not for those guys and certainly not 5-10%

eagle eye wrote: »

Correct, thing is they will tune into one of the debates and if Biden looks like he is struggling then it's over and Trump wins.

The difference in support for Biden over the other two isn't coming from Democrats , it's coming from Independents who have a serious problem with Trump but are centre/centre right (in US terms) so they cannot bring themselves to vote for Warren or Sanders. I don't think they give a damn about Biden particularly , for them - He's not Trump and he's not likely to introduce any major shift in Wealth taxes etc. That's all that matters.

I suspect that if Biden wasn't on the ballot, those swing voters don't vote at all , I don't see them going back to Trump.

Still gives Trump the win , but he doesn't gain their vote.

eagle eye · 11-11-2019 12:30pm

Quin_Dub wrote:

I suspect that if Biden wasn't on the ballot, those swing voters don't vote at all , I don't see them going back to Trump.

I don't think they vote for someone who doesn't look capable of doing the job and imo Biden is coming across like that.

Quin_Dub · 11-11-2019 12:38pm

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't think they vote for someone who doesn't look capable of doing the job and imo Biden is coming across like that.

But that's not what the polls are saying.

They are saying , if Biden is on the ballot he wins most of those swing states. If the others are there instead , Trump wins.

Bidens strengths and weaknesses are well known at this stage so his behavior is largely factored in at this stage.

I think Biden beats Trump in Head to Head debates as well as Trump is utterly awful one on one.

Don't get me wrong , Biden isn't great by any means , but he is the only candidate that picks up a decent share of the "Please give me a option other than Trump" Independent voters in the swing states.

Warren et al probably win the National Popular vote by a larger margin than Biden by picking up huge vote totals in super solid blue states , but that's meaningless in terms of actually winning the election.

The Democrats need to be comfortable with giving up a chunk of their huge margins of victory in places like California by choosing a centrist who can get over the line in the purple states.

The question remains though - Will they??

Rjd2 · 11-11-2019 2:38pm

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/11/joe-biden-2020-frontrunner/601720/?utm_content=edit-promo&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_term=2019-11-10T13%3A22%3A40&utm_source=twitter

Decent article on Biden and his current scenario.

He is in an odd position, the only candidate who would be strong fav to win the swing states v Trump but also has very little enthusiasm whether grass roots fund raising and especially online.

Bloomberg entering the race is also damning on him. Bloomberg is not an idiot, if he is worried about Biden then people should listen. The man knows the party better than most including many online "experts ".

Bloomberg won't take any votes from Warren or Bernie, but Biden and to a lesser extent Mayor Pete should be alarmed about him joining the race.

StringerBell · 11-11-2019 3:13pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Correct, thing is they will tune into one of the debates and if Biden looks like he is struggling then it's over and Trump wins.

Why? Trump lost every debate and still won v Clinton. It's not that time anymore where these debates actually even matter very much. Data suggests that 2/3 of voters have made up their minds one way or another and there is practically nothing that could change it.

What is important for the Dems, as always, is that they get the vote out. That whoever ends up with the nomination the party is fully behind them, the unsuccessful candidates throw full support behind them and the ultimate goal of removal of Trump stays strong among the voters in terms of motivation to get out and vote.

The Phantom Jipper · 11-11-2019 3:42pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

But that's not what the polls are saying.

They are saying , if Biden is on the ballot he wins most of those swing states. If the others are there instead , Trump wins.

Bidens strengths and weaknesses are well known at this stage so his behavior is largely factored in at this stage.

I think Biden beats Trump in Head to Head debates as well as Trump is utterly awful one on one.

Don't get me wrong , Biden isn't great by any means , but he is the only candidate that picks up a decent share of the "Please give me a option other than Trump" Independent voters in the swing states.

Warren et al probably win the National Popular vote by a larger margin than Biden by picking up huge vote totals in super solid blue states , but that's meaningless in terms of actually winning the election.

The Democrats need to be comfortable with giving up a chunk of their huge margins of victory in places like California by choosing a centrist who can get over the line in the purple states.

The question remains though - Will they??

I think you've used the Siena College polls in your post but these aren't the only only polls out there. Many other polls show Warren and Sanders ahead in swing states.

I think you're underestimating the extent to which people aren't engaged in the process right now. There was a leaked memo originating from the Buttigieg campaign recently that highlighted how much of Biden's support is based purely on name recognition. I agree he'd likely offer their best chance in the general but his support looks very soft to me.

eagle eye · 11-11-2019 4:18pm

StringerBell wrote:

Why?

Because he has looked like someone in the early throws of dementia at times.
If he comes across like that then he won't get elected.

StringerBell · 11-11-2019 4:25pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Because he has looked like someone in the early throws of dementia at times.
If he comes across like that then he won't get elected.

No I understand why you are saying he will perform poorly, I just don't fully agree or understand why you think it will hamper him when it doesn't hamper Trump.

eagle eye · 11-11-2019 5:02pm

StringerBell wrote:

No I understand why you are saying he will perform poorly, I just don't fully agree or understand why you think it will hamper him when it doesn't hamper Trump.

Trump doesn't come across like he isn't capable of doing the job. He is not a nice person, has retarded views on lots of things and is hated by many but I think many will feel that Biden is not capable of doing the job.
Since early on I've been saying that they need somebody in the 40-55 age bracket. History suggests a Democrat in that age bracket wins. The last Democratic president older than that was Truman in 1945 and that was different because he was the incumbent having taken office upon the death of Roosevelt.

Water John · 11-11-2019 5:51pm

Bell. agree with you. One of the problems HC had was Sanders held out a long time on her and his voters didn't wholly support her. Plus her fatal mistake of not giving attention to the Rust Belt States as her husband told her. She didn't even take his advice.

It's about turnout and unity of purpose for the Dems. They get their act together and they will beat Trump. It's their decision.

Danzy · 11-11-2019 7:01pm

Water John wrote: »

Bell. agree with you. One of the problems HC had was Sanders held out a long time on her and his voters didn't wholly support her. Plus her fatal mistake of not giving attention to the Rust Belt States as her husband told her. She didn't even take his advice.

It's about turnout and unity of purpose for the Dems. They get their act together and they will beat Trump. It's their decision.

There are sections of the Democrats who span every thing in between the Progressive Democrats to People before Profit.

Jesus effing Christ · 11-11-2019 7:59pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The Democrats need to be comfortable with giving up a chunk of their huge margins of victory in places like California by choosing a centrist who can get over the line in the purple states.

The question remains though - Will they??

This or some other version of "for the greater good" is what we hear all day every day from all corners of the mainstream.
No need for any debate or analysis on the best direction for country or party. As beating trump is all that matters, CNN and MSNBC have said so.
And now that's been established, their's no need for anyone to bother their head worring about who's best for the job, as Mika and Joe have already done the math and it just so happens that status quo candidate joe is the man.

If beating trump is the goal and unity it the way to get there, isn't a fair fight the best alround. For the centrist to stand ideally by as the media yet again put their hand on the scale isn't the best way to get the vote out .

Water John · 11-11-2019 8:01pm

Yes but at the end of the day, one must fall in and support, enthusiastically, the selected candidate, if the alt is someone like Trump. Now I understand how peeved Sanders and his supporters felt at how the DNC treated them.
They all should learn from it in the DNC.

Overheal · 11-11-2019 9:59pm

With candidates like these how do Democrats stand a chance?

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/nbc-interviews-pro-qanon-gop-congressional-candidates-pedophile-rings-are-running-d-c/

Jesus effing Christ · 13-11-2019 11:13am

Danzy wrote: »

Bernie is not going to make it, he needs freshness to bump higher but is so well known, that will not happen.

Mayor Pete will do well in Iowa, may springboard off that, If he wins it.

Biden is now 3rd in Iowa, it's close but he is still 3rd.

If he loses Iowa, he may well he done.

Bernie has just been endorsed by a major nurses union "national nurses United" because of his Medicare for all push.
Have you any idea why mayor Pete has flip flopped on "medicare for all" from his stated position last February.?
I do know his favourite book is Ulysses along with a whole bunch of other completely useless and random pieces of information on the man. He's just such a hard guy to track on policy maybe more pro buttigieg people let us know what they like about him.

The Phantom Jipper · 13-11-2019 12:11pm

Jesus effing Christ wrote: »

Bernie has just been endorsed by a major nurses union "national nurses United" because of his Medicare for all push.
Have you any idea why mayor Pete has flip flopped on "medicare for all" from his stated position last February.?
I do know his favourite book is Ulysses along with a whole bunch of other completely useless and random pieces of information on the man. He's just such a hard guy to track on policy maybe more pro buttigieg people let us know what they like about him.

I enjoyed his audacity when criticising Warren for not having a detailed healthcare plan when he himself had zero policies on anything until recently. He's a very talented politician but I agree, it's hard to figure out what he actually stands for.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/culture/2019/apr/24/trevor-noah-president-late-night-democrats-2020

13-11-2019 12:26pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

But that's not what the polls are saying.

What happened the polls that said HRC was a sure thing? That said Brexit would flop?

Anyone with half a brain can see Biden is like one of Grandpa Simpsons buddies in the retirement home.

I agree with others here who say the democrats need someone in their 40s or 50s to beat Trump. Andrew Yang would be a good option but the mainstream media ignores him even though he is polling over 10% in some polls. And he'd get votes from independents in droves and even from some never Trump republicans.

https://nextshark.com/andrew-yang-mainstream-media-snubs/

Danzy · 13-11-2019 2:18pm

Jesus effing Christ wrote: »

Bernie has just been endorsed by a major nurses union "national nurses United" because of his Medicare for all push.
Have you any idea why mayor Pete has flip flopped on "medicare for all" from his stated position last February.?
I do know his favourite book is Ulysses along with a whole bunch of other completely useless and random pieces of information on the man. He's just such a hard guy to track on policy maybe more pro buttigieg people let us know what they like about him.

I have no idea why Pete flipped or flopped or what he really believes.

I suspect he would be another Obama or Clinton.

Great to see Bernie get that endorsement, he is the one Democrat who I'd like to see win but he is not going to win.

He looks like coming third at best.

Bernie would have to compromise with the loony wing of his party, the squad on one side and the Wall St fan gang on the other.

They have a lot they agree on, they'd finish Bernie in one term but as I said he isn't going to
to win.

Jesus effing Christ · 13-11-2019 3:11pm

Danzy wrote: »

but he is not going to win.

as I said he isn't going to
to win.

Ok, I hear what you're saying

Now, why isn't Bernie Sanders going to win?

stefanovich · 13-11-2019 11:36pm

Jesus effing Christ wrote: »

Ok, I hear what you're saying

Now, why isn't Bernie Sanders going to win?

The stress of the campaign would probably kill him now.

stefanovich · 13-11-2019 11:37pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Anyone with half a brain can see Biden is like one of Grandpa Simpsons buddies in the retirement home.

The creepy one who can't keep his hands to himself.

US Presidential Election 2020

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