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12-03-2017, 11:38   #16
nuac
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Originally Posted by L1011 View Post
B&A polls aren't worth bogroll usually. However, if this is the case - and they have adjusted for the people who say they'll vote SF and never vote at all - they won't be able to run away from government again.
Why, pls?
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12-03-2017, 11:44   #17
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I'm your typical fairly well informed armchair political analyst and my taking is that if a GE were called tomorrow, Sinn Fein would gain another 10 seats with approx 19% of the vote. Polls always overestimate their support... I often wonder why this is the case? However for a party that only got its first TD in 1997 to potentially have between 30 and 35 seats in 2017 is a remarkable achievement given the fierce political and media campaign against them.

After the 2016 election many commentators bring up how SF wouldn't form a government. With who? FG and FF would not do business with them under any circumstances. I think SF played it clever by ruling out government unless they were the majority partner. They knew they would never be in a position to be a majority partner but by spinning it like that, they didn't categorically rule out a willingness to lead. Also, supposing they hadn't taken that stance, they weren't going to allow FG or FF humiliate them by being rejected if they did offer to talk about government creation. Martin in particular would have taken great pleasure in watching SF offer to go into talks and then being told go away.

I do however think that FF would at least talk to them this time. FF are desperate for power and despite Martin 's spin, grassroots FF are more open to SF than he let's on. I know many grassroots FFers who say they have no problem with SF and that it would be another way of uniting republicanism.

Would I vote SF? I would consider it. The troubles are in the past and every party has to move on. Our two biggest parties were born from a war which was just as savage as what went on in the North. So no that's not an issue fir me.

Economics? Seriously with the state of this country and what happened over the last decade is any party in a position to lecture about economics and what's the best policies etc?

One gripe I have with SF that may stop me voting for them... immigration and Travellers. To willing to open the floodgates. To willing to stand by Travellers when 99% of the problems Travellers face are their own doing.


Agreed
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12-03-2017, 11:45   #18
 
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But FF are way ahead despite everything?

So how are people disillusioned and how are SF filling the vacuum?
Sorry, badly phrased on my part.

I should have said people are becoming more and more disillusioned.
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12-03-2017, 11:47   #19
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To willing to stand by Travellers when 99% of the problems Travellers face are their own doing.
That's a feature rather than a fault to be fair.

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To willing to open the floodgates
Also a feature.

Last edited by Consonata; 12-03-2017 at 11:53.
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12-03-2017, 11:48   #20
 
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Sorry, badly phrased on my part.

I should have said people are becoming more and more disillusioned.
Yes agree there as we can see from the polls.
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12-03-2017, 12:47   #21
Fr Tod Umptious
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Originally Posted by fraxinus1 View Post
I'm your typical fairly well informed armchair political analyst and my taking is that if a GE were called tomorrow, Sinn Fein would gain another 10 seats with approx 19% of the vote. Polls always overestimate their support... I often wonder why this is the case? However for a party that only got its first TD in 1997 to potentially have between 30 and 35 seats in 2017 is a remarkable achievement given the fierce political and media campaign against them.

After the 2016 election many commentators bring up how SF wouldn't form a government. With who? FG and FF would not do business with them under any circumstances. I think SF played it clever by ruling out government unless they were the majority partner. They knew they would never be in a position to be a majority partner but by spinning it like that, they didn't categorically rule out a willingness to lead. Also, supposing they hadn't taken that stance, they weren't going to allow FG or FF humiliate them by being rejected if they did offer to talk about government creation. Martin in particular would have taken great pleasure in watching SF offer to go into talks and then being told go away.

I do however think that FF would at least talk to them this time. FF are desperate for power and despite Martin 's spin, grassroots FF are more open to SF than he let's on. I know many grassroots FFers who say they have no problem with SF and that it would be another way of uniting republicanism.

Would I vote SF? I would consider it. The troubles are in the past and every party has to move on. Our two biggest parties were born from a war which was just as savage as what went on in the North. So no that's not an issue fir me.

Economics? Seriously with the state of this country and what happened over the last decade is any party in a position to lecture about economics and what's the best policies etc?

One gripe I have with SF that may stop me voting for them... immigration and Travellers. To willing to open the floodgates. To willing to stand by Travellers when 99% of the problems Travellers face are their own doing.
It's because polls only give an indication of first preference and not transfers.

SF do not do well on transfers from other parties, unlike the others do.

So SF usually get someone elected early in the count and rarely bring in second or third candidates.

Smart vote management is required for them to maximize their seats, i.e fewer candidates in constituencies the better.
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12-03-2017, 12:57   #22
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Its inevitable they'll eventually get into power. Look at the gains they've made from the late 90s. They'll keep chipping away and in the near future, they'll be the ones calling the shots.
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12-03-2017, 12:58   #23
 
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yay.......little Irish flags and free money for everyone!!!!

Now, will it be one money tree per household or one per adult?
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12-03-2017, 13:00   #24
Fr Tod Umptious
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Its inevitable they'll eventually get into power. Look at the gains they've made from the late 90s. They'll keep chipping away and in the near future, they'll be the ones calling the shots.
And I also believe that if SF ever got an overall majority (far fetched as it is) then it would be our last election for a long time.

Adam's appreciation for Castro proves it IMO.
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12-03-2017, 13:02   #25
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Why, pls?
This is a polling firm that was showing the Workers Party - who have 2 councillors and basically no party organisation outside of Waterford and a tiny bit in Dublin - as a seperate party on about 3% a while ago. They have wild variations poll on poll also.

They'd be better than Quantum (the polls that added up to as high as 103% before the 2011 GE) but otherwise I'd consider them bottom of the stack for reliability.
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12-03-2017, 13:15   #26
 
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And I also believe that if SF ever got an overall majority (far fetched as it is) then it would be our last election for a long time.

Adam's appreciation for Castro proves it IMO.
I'm guessing we'd have our own version of the Reichstag fire
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12-03-2017, 13:25   #27
 
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Originally Posted by Fr Tod Umptious View Post
It's because polls only give an indication of first preference and not transfers.

SF do not do well on transfers from other parties, unlike the others do.

So SF usually get someone elected early in the count and rarely bring in second or third candidates.

Smart vote management is required for them to maximize their seats, i.e fewer candidates in constituencies the better.
They don't do well in transfers, but if Gerry steps down I'd imagine that would change quickly.
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12-03-2017, 13:27   #28
Fr Tod Umptious
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I'm guessing we'd have our own version of the Reichstag fire
Yep, something will be used.

Just look a Gerry Adams, how can he reamin party leader for over 30 years with so many scandals ?

SF are not a democratic organization, and neither will Ireland be if they were in charge.

Call it a warning for the future​.
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12-03-2017, 13:32   #29
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Yep, something will be used.

Just look a Gerry Adams, how can he reamin party leader for over 30 years with so many scandals ?

SF are not a democratic organization, and neither will Ireland be if they were in charge.

Call it a warning for the future​.
SF in government > Communist state seems sensationalist to say the absolute least.

Sinn Fein as a political party is just FF for slow learners, that's all really.
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12-03-2017, 13:34   #30
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It was similar during the last Dail. Sinn Fein went up to about 25% at one stage, fell to 15% once the discussions of government started and ended up with the usual no-show at the ballot box at 13%


One thing that bewilders me about FG is that there has been a blatant attempt to destroy the middle classes. Their most likely voting demographic destroyed just to try and get votes off the welfare and lower working classes (who will never vote for them any way). Strategy isn't FG's strongest point
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