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Italexit. Proposals for new Italian currency gaining traction

13

Comments

  • #62
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,434 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I see the never ending clown car that is Italian politics continues with the PM resigning today.

    I wish they would leave the EU along with Greece personally. But I guess for the moment we are stuck with it.


  • #63
    Franz Von Peppercorn II
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    I see the never ending clown car that is Italian politics continues with the PM resigning today.

    I wish they would leave the EU along with Greece personally. But I guess for the moment we are stuck with it.

    Italy and Britain leaving would be a disaster for Europe.


  • #64
    Thrashssacre
    Registered Users Posts: 1,257 ✭✭✭Thrashssacre


    Be interesting to see how this plays out seems it’s either a 5 star/PD government or if elections were triggered a potential Lega/Forza Italia/brothers of Italy government with Salvini as pm. Mental stuff altogether.


  • #65
    micosoft
    Registered Users Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭micosoft


    meeeeh wrote: »
    The mess that is in Italy has a potential to cost us all dearly. If Italy needed a bailout it would be huge in comparison to Ireland and Greece. To me cheering something like that would be incredibly dumb but knock yourself out.

    Italy has allegedly been on the verge of collapse since 1947. There is nothing spectacularly new about it's debt nor is it particularly onerous. The thing is aside from the vast uncounting of the Italian black economy the fundamentals aren't bad. Unlike the UK Italy makes things and exports things that people want...
    - Second largest exporter in the EU.
    - 40 Billion per annum Trade Surplus.
    - HQ of absolute world leaders in manufacturing, food and textiles. Fiat owns Chrysler for example. Generali in insurance.
    - Higher growth than the UK - even Warren Buffet sees Italy as a long term investment.

    Not to say Italy does not have issues with North South divide and government weakness but that has been true since the unification of Italy in 1861.

    How many times do naysayers have to be proven wrong. The collapse of the Euro and EU and Italy have been promoted so many times since 2008 and yet it has not happened. Cherry picking some facts as being "new" to recast the story does not make it truer. To be honest the outlook of Italy is far more positive than the UK at this time.


  • #66
    micosoft
    Registered Users Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭micosoft


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    Except that that is not what is happening.

    Exactly. I wish people who take isolated "facts" that sound "truthy" from the internets and take the spin put around them as "the truth" would go off and do an online course in political economy to just get the basics right. The Internet and social media have delivered a fleet of Dunning Krugers that are easily think they can interpret complex things with a twitter post.


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  • #67
    meeeeh
    Registered Users Posts: 11,624 ✭✭✭✭meeeeh


    micosoft wrote: »
    Italy has allegedly been on the verge of collapse since 1947. There is nothing spectacularly new about it's debt nor is it particularly onerous. The thing is aside from the vast uncounting of the Italian black economy the fundamentals aren't bad. Unlike the UK Italy makes things and exports things that people want...
    - Second largest exporter in the EU.
    - 40 Billion per annum Trade Surplus.
    - HQ of absolute world leaders in manufacturing, food and textiles. Fiat owns Chrysler for example. Generali in insurance.
    - Higher growth than the UK - even Warren Buffet sees Italy as a long term investment.

    Not to say Italy does not have issues with North South divide and government weakness but that has been true since the unification of Italy in 1861.

    How many times do naysayers have to be proven wrong. The collapse of the Euro and EU and Italy have been promoted so many times since 2008 and yet it has not happened. Cherry picking some facts as being "new" to recast the story does not make it truer. To be honest the outlook of Italy is far more positive than the UK at this time.

    Ah come on, you can massage numbers whatever way you want but Italy was in recession 3 times in last 10 years and had f all growth in between. Their national debt is among the highest in EU, unemployment rate at around 10%, youth unemployment around 30 something percent, ageing population and problems with their banks. Their bonds are among more expensive for a reason.

    UK is in a political mess but I haven't got a clue where that will go and frankly UK being worse off wouldn't make Italy any better.


  • #68
    RandomName2
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭RandomName2


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    I see the never ending clown car that is Italian politics continues with the PM resigning today.

    I wish they would leave the EU along with Greece personally. But I guess for the moment we are stuck with it.

    Just letting you know that's 140 million of the EU's 510 million population that's just been floated as an idea for leaving (if you include the UK, which would be wise).
    pixelburp wrote: »
    what a list of conquests lol. Wasn't Ethiopia a bust? Fair enough, they weren't without designs on expansion, their colour was on the map of Africa true - the original point was that I don't feel that embedded presumption of primacy exists in the mindset of our continental neighbours as much as it does with the UK, whose proponents of Brexit seem to exist in a fantasy of empire now gone. And if they did, Brexit has been a cold shower to disabuse those of these notions.

    The Habsburg and Spanish Empires might want a word (both of which predate the UK). Granted they aren't really empires any more, but neither is the UK. Or if one says that the UK is an empire today (the word isn't exactly scientific) then France falls under the same category, and the French tried to conquer most of the world in the 19th century. You can say that all the nationalists in all the EU countries hark back to era of 'glory', from Vox to National Rally, and that nationalism gets tied up in feelings concerning national determination. That isn't in any way exclusive to the UK. Only in a couple of smaller countries (like Denmark, Netherlands, Ireland) do these sentiments not seem to exist.


  • #69
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭McGiver


    micosoft wrote: »
    meeeeh wrote: »
    The mess that is in Italy has a potential to cost us all dearly. If Italy needed a bailout it would be huge in comparison to Ireland and Greece. To me cheering something like that would be incredibly dumb but knock yourself out.

    Italy has allegedly been on the verge of collapse since 1947. There is nothing spectacularly new about it's debt nor is it particularly onerous. The thing is aside from the vast uncounting of the Italian black economy the fundamentals aren't bad. Unlike the UK Italy makes things and exports things that people want...
    - Second largest exporter in the EU.
    - 40 Billion per annum Trade Surplus.
    - HQ of absolute world leaders in manufacturing, food and textiles. Fiat owns Chrysler for example. Generali in insurance.
    - Higher growth than the UK - even Warren Buffet sees Italy as a long term investment.

    Not to say Italy does not have issues with North South divide and government weakness but that has been true since the unification of Italy in 1861.

    How many times do naysayers have to be proven wrong. The collapse of the Euro and EU and Italy have been promoted so many times since 2008 and yet it has not happened. Cherry picking some facts as being "new" to recast the story does not make it truer. To be honest the outlook of Italy is far more positive than the UK at this time.
    Exactly. Main issues are - corruption, poor governance, huge regional differences.

    Italy has had a huge public debt and budget deficits since the unification bar periods of hyperinflation. Not much change...

    Also interesting to find out how much of the public debt is held domestically. If its high % then it's much smaller issue. E.g. Japan debt is 200% GDP but almost all held domestically and hence it's not an issue.


  • #70
    Scoondal
    Registered Users Posts: 883 ✭✭✭Scoondal


    Italy should leave EU if they don't like it anymore.
    It's really that simple.
    And any Italians in Ireland who support Matteo Salvini really need to ask themselves questions about immigrating to Ireland.
    EU doesn't need this hassle.


  • #71
    Foghladh
    Registered Users Posts: 393 ✭✭Foghladh


    McGiver wrote: »
    Exactly. Main issues are - corruption, poor governance, huge regional differences.

    Italy has had a huge public debt and budget deficits since the unification bar periods of hyperinflation. Not much change...

    Also interesting to find out how much of the public debt is held domestically. If its high % then it's much smaller issue. E.g. Japan debt is 200% GDP but almost all held domestically and hence it's not an issue.

    There was a CEPS paper a couple of months ago that calculated that about 45% of Italian debt was held internationally


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  • #72
    Scoondal
    Registered Users Posts: 883 ✭✭✭Scoondal


    McGiver wrote: »
    Exactly. Main issues are - corruption, poor governance, huge regional differences.

    Italy has had a huge public debt and budget deficits since the unification bar periods of hyperinflation. Not much change...

    Also interesting to find out how much of the public debt is held domestically. If its high % then it's much smaller issue. E.g. Japan debt is 200% GDP but almost all held domestically and hence it's not an issue.

    Reading some of this thread suggests to me that Italians should be grateful of their EU membership.


  • #73
    Scoondal
    Registered Users Posts: 883 ✭✭✭Scoondal


    If the EU could kick countries out of EU, who should we start with ?
    For me it would be Poland, Italy, Greece and Hungary.


  • #74
    Darc19
    Registered Users Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭Darc19


    Scoondal wrote: »
    If the EU could kick countries out of EU, who should we start with ?
    For me it would be Poland, Italy, Greece and Hungary.

    The UK.


  • #75
    Scoondal
    Registered Users Posts: 883 ✭✭✭Scoondal


    Darc19 wrote: »
    The UK.

    We don't have to kick them out because they are leaving voluntarily.


  • #76
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Foghladh wrote: »
    McGiver wrote: »
    Exactly. Main issues are - corruption, poor governance, huge regional differences.

    Italy has had a huge public debt and budget deficits since the unification bar periods of hyperinflation. Not much change...

    Also interesting to find out how much of the public debt is held domestically. If its high % then it's much smaller issue. E.g. Japan debt is 200% GDP but almost all held domestically and hence it's not an issue.

    There was a CEPS paper a couple of months ago that calculated that about 45% of Italian debt was held internationally
    Not too bad actually but also not great, I expected it would be 80% held domestically. If it's only 55% they'll need to put their house in order, hyperinflation and devaluation ain't gonna happen this time round.


  • #77
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Scoondal wrote: »
    If the EU could kick countries out of EU, who should we start with ?
    For me it would be Poland, Italy, Greece and Hungary.
    Hungary, quasi fascist scum regime. Kicking out Poland isn't a good idea due to Russian interference, Russia would infiltrate them and use as proxy similarly as the Ukraine, we don't want that, it's in no one's interest give the Russian regime more cannon fodder.
    I'd probably wait it out even though the Polish clerofascist scum regime is probably even more alarming than the Hungarian one because they also use the Church as a proxy. Drawing religion into politics is always a big issue. But on the other hand, i believe the opposition and civic society is much stronger in Poland than in Hungary so I'd give them chance.
    Italy ain't problem unless fascist government becomes a norm. Given the dynamics of Italian politics, I'd be surprised if that happened. They are on a good way showing how incompetent fools they are, which will eliminate them in the end. Constitutional changes which Hungarian and Polish quasi fascist regimes attempted are impossible in the Italy due to perfect bicameral parliamentary system.
    Economic issues are an issue and the EU will need to keep pushing on them putting their governance into a good shape, and address corruption and regional issues.

    TLDR - Hungary probably out, Poland be really hard on them in the terms of commitment to democracy and human rights, push hard for economic and transparency reforms in Italy.


  • #78
    Scoondal
    Registered Users Posts: 883 ✭✭✭Scoondal


    McGiver wrote: »
    Hungary, quasi fascist scum regime. Kicking out Poland isn't a good idea due to Russian interference, Russia would infiltrate them and use as proxy similarly as the Ukraine, we don't want that, it's in no one's interest give the Russian regime more cannon fodder.
    I'd probably wait it out even though the Polish clerofascist scum regime is probably even more alarming than the Hungarian one because they also use the Church as a proxy. Drawing religion into politics is always a big issue. But on the other hand, i believe the opposition and civic society is much stronger in Poland than in Hungary so I'd give them chance.
    Italy ain't problem unless fascist government becomes a norm. Given the dynamics of Italian politics, I'd be surprised if that happened. They are on a good way showing how incompetent fools they are, which will eliminate them in the end. Constitutional changes which Hungarian and Polish quasi fascist regimes attempted are impossible in the Italy due to perfect bicameral parliamentary system.
    Economic issues are an issue and the EU will need to keep pushing on them putting their governance into a good shape, and address corruption and regional issues.

    TLDR - Hungary probably out, Poland be really hard on them in the terms of commitment to democracy and human rights, push hard for economic and transparency reforms in Italy.

    Okay, that is an informed opinion. Perhaps my ideas of EU commitment are a bit simplistic. I do believe that a smaller number of committed EU members would make our union stronger. ( counter intuitive, perhaps.)


  • #79
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Scoondal wrote: »
    McGiver wrote: »
    Hungary, quasi fascist scum regime. Kicking out Poland isn't a good idea due to Russian interference, Russia would infiltrate them and use as proxy similarly as the Ukraine, we don't want that, it's in no one's interest give the Russian regime more cannon fodder.
    I'd probably wait it out even though the Polish clerofascist scum regime is probably even more alarming than the Hungarian one because they also use the Church as a proxy. Drawing religion into politics is always a big issue. But on the other hand, i believe the opposition and civic society is much stronger in Poland than in Hungary so I'd give them chance.
    Italy ain't problem unless fascist government becomes a norm. Given the dynamics of Italian politics, I'd be surprised if that happened. They are on a good way showing how incompetent fools they are, which will eliminate them in the end. Constitutional changes which Hungarian and Polish quasi fascist regimes attempted are impossible in the Italy due to perfect bicameral parliamentary system.
    Economic issues are an issue and the EU will need to keep pushing on them putting their governance into a good shape, and address corruption and regional issues.

    TLDR - Hungary probably out, Poland be really hard on them in the terms of commitment to democracy and human rights, push hard for economic and transparency reforms in Italy.

    Okay, that is an informed opinion. Perhaps my ideas of EU commitment are a bit simplistic. I do believe that a smaller number of committed EU members would make our union stronger. ( counter intuitive, perhaps.)
    Who defines what committed is? RoI isn't in Schengen and is a global tax haven so some could argue isn't committed either.

    Very ambiguous and unclear definition. And who would assess the said commitment? Won't work. The EU is always going to be a unity in diversity.


  • #80
    Stephen15
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,907 ✭✭✭Stephen15


    Scoondal wrote: »
    If the EU could kick countries out of EU, who should we start with ?
    For me it would be Poland, Italy, Greece and Hungary.

    Kicking Italy out of the EU would be curtains for the EU. It's one of the largest economies within the EU and founding members.


  • #81
    Scoondal
    Registered Users Posts: 883 ✭✭✭Scoondal


    Stephen15 wrote: »
    Kicking Italy out of the EU would be curtains for the EU. It's one of the largest economies within the EU and founding members.

    A large but disfunctional economy. Italy is a weight that EU has to carry. Italy out of EU. Let's be part of a union of committed nations only. Poland and Hungary are not committed to EU law.


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  • #82
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Scoondal wrote: »
    A large but disfunctional economy. Italy is a weight that EU has to carry. Italy out of EU. Let's be part of a union of committed nations only. Poland and Hungary are not committed to EU law.

    Italy the 3rd biggest net contribitior once the Uk packs it's bags.
    Sure remove them (Italy) and the uk (already gone), and the V4 group, and be left with a very fragmented union of sorts.

    The V4 ( Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia ) are all proud nation states, that refuse to be bullied into a mass migraiton event/project.


  • #83
    Stephen15
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,907 ✭✭✭Stephen15


    Scoondal wrote: »
    A large but disfunctional economy. Italy is a weight that EU has to carry. Italy out of EU. Let's be part of a union of committed nations only. Poland and Hungary are not committed to EU law.

    It would be disastrous for the EU for Italy to be kicked believe me. In fact the EU would almost certainly suffer more if Italy was to be kicked out. Italy has the resources to be for the most part self sufficient. Italy is one of the largest markets if Italy was to be kicked it would almost certainly put trade restrictions on the EU member states who would not be able to sell their goods to the large Italian market. Either way it's not going to happen.


  • #84
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Scoondal wrote: »
    Stephen15 wrote: »
    Kicking Italy out of the EU would be curtains for the EU. It's one of the largest economies within the EU and founding members.

    A large but disfunctional economy. Italy is a weight that EU has to carry. Italy out of EU. Let's be part of a union of committed nations only. Poland and Hungary are not committed to EU law.

    Italy really isn't a huge problem. It is a problem but not as much as it is presented.

    Whereas a global tax haven which doesn't want to collect huge tax due and enables large scale tax evasion of monstrous proportions whilst being heavily indebted is much bigger issue IMHO.

    Ireland doesn't really export much on its own (what isn't through US owned entities at least), not much hi-tech high value added stuff and remains heavily indebted as much as Italy in fact but unlike Italy it has nothing to back the debt with. Also, it has unhealthy balance of economy, totally US dominated with relatively few domestic export companies compered to the peers. For example Denmark with the same population has 10 times more domestically owned export firms than Ireland. And exports high tech stuff.

    So better look under your bonnet first before looking at neighbour's car.


  • #85
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Foster Future Whistle wrote: »
    Scoondal wrote: »
    A large but disfunctional economy. Italy is a weight that EU has to carry. Italy out of EU. Let's be part of a union of committed nations only. Poland and Hungary are not committed to EU law.

    Italy the 3rd biggest net contribitior once the Uk packs it's bags.
    Sure remove them (Italy) and the uk (already gone), and the V4 group, and be left with a very fragmented union of sorts.

    The V4 ( Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia ) are all proud nation states, that refuse to be bullied into a mass migraiton event/project.
    I know V4 situation very well and the V4 don't agree on anything. Also, they are all different with different cultures.

    CZ and SK are more centre-left and the difference is attitude to euro (SK in euro, CZ very conservative currency attitude somewhat like Denmark/Sweden), religion plays no role in CZ politics and minor role in SK politics. PL and HU are clearly right of the centre, and generally more right than CZ and SK. They are similar only superficially in the sense that they both have quasi-fascist regimes which bend/mess up with the constitution and use propaganda for political purposes. They key difference is that the Polish sort are clero-fascists, religious bigots and socially regressive whereas the Hungarian ones don't really care about religion and social stuff that much.


  • #86
    FreudianSlippers
    Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    McGiver wrote: »

    Whereas a global tax haven which doesn't want to collect huge tax due and enables large scale tax evasion of monstrous proportions whilst being heavily indebted is much bigger issue IMHO.
    Abject mischaracterisation of the situation.
    Ireland doesn't really export much on its own (what isn't through US owned entities at least), not much hi-tech high value added stuff and remains heavily indebted as much as Italy in fact but unlike Italy it has nothing to back the debt with. Also, it has unhealthy balance of economy, totally US dominated with relatively few domestic export companies compered to the peers. For example Denmark with the same population has 10 times more domestically owned export firms than Ireland. And exports high tech stuff.
    Except this is blatantly untrue, Ireland's top 10 exports:

    Pharmaceuticals: US$53.3 billion (32.3% of total exports)
    Organic chemicals: $32.9 billion (19.9%)
    Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $15.3 billion (9.3%)
    Perfumes, cosmetics: $9.1 billion (5.5%)
    Machinery including computers: $8.9 billion (5.4%)
    Electrical machinery, equipment: $8.7 billion (5.3%)
    Aircraft, spacecraft: $5.6 billion (3.4%)
    Other chemical goods: $4.2 billion (2.6%)
    Meat: $3.7 billion (2.2%)
    Dairy, eggs, honey: $3 billion (1.8%)


  • #87
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    FreudianSlippers wrote:
    Abject mischaracterisation of the situation.

    Its also shows a lack of understanding of global economics in the 21st century. Ireland has an open economy where wealth is created, not extracted. Wealth is created by adding value and satisfying demand.

    In 100 years, global trade will be dominated by companies that don't exist today making things that have yet to be invented.

    Intellectual capital is much more valuable than physical assets.


  • #88
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,065 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Mod: Off topic posts deleted.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • #89
    micosoft
    Registered Users Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭micosoft


    meeeeh wrote: »
    Ah come on, you can massage numbers whatever way you want but Italy was in recession 3 times in last 10 years and had f all growth in between. Their national debt is among the highest in EU, unemployment rate at around 10%, youth unemployment around 30 something percent, ageing population and problems with their banks. Their bonds are among more expensive for a reason.

    UK is in a political mess but I haven't got a clue where that will go and frankly UK being worse off wouldn't make Italy any better.

    Again. What's changed? You could have written that many times over the last sixty years. And yet Italy stills continues on...


  • #90
    meeeeh
    Registered Users Posts: 11,624 ✭✭✭✭meeeeh


    micosoft wrote: »
    Again. What's changed? You could have written that many times over the last sixty years. And yet Italy stills continues on...

    Quite a lot changed. They are in Euro so country can't devalue it's currency or change central bank interest rates. From 2005 debt rose for about 30% which negated more or less all previous reductions through decades. Plus their GDP is under the level of GDP in 2000. So their economy is anything but solid.


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  • #91
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 9,981 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    meeeeh wrote: »
    They are in Euro so country can't devalue it's currency or change central bank interest rates. From 2005 debt rose for about 30% which negated more or less all previous reductions through decades.

    The debt levels has noting to do with whether they could revalue their currency and the reality is that they don't have the reserves necessary to manage a currency in the world today.

    People go on with a lot of nonsense about everything would be great if the could only revalue their currency, but they usually ignore the mechanics of how they could actually do it today. It has not been used for decades because it does not work and besides it is just one tool available to governments, they can use other alternatives such as taxes to impact the economy.

    To put it into perspective the SNB (Swiss National Bank) is the only European central bank apart from the ECB that has the resources required to even attempt this and they failed miserably last time around and in doing so, they ended up owning the deficit for the 7 biggest Euroland ecvmoinies....

    Claiming that being able to devalue a currency can solve economic problems in todays world is just BS.


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