FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

UKMO 12z is teasing an easterly to take place. High pressure is forming to the east of Europe trying to go up to Scandinavia as the low pressure stalls over Ireland.



GFS 12z gets here too by +240hrs.





Low pressure stalling over Ireland, Scandinavian High forming. Two precursors to an easterly, let's see how she goes.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I
I’d expect that by the time further artic leakage occurs that the jet will be back hopefully before

Hopefully not. As when the zonal winds reverse it will take some time for the jet to return to normal. Bring on a late Match or April snow storm, ala 1917:D
If the possibility of an Easterly is mentioned in the latest UKMO update then it might be time to take notice.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The jet isn’t going to stay barreling into Morocco for 4 or 5 weeks on the trot,it would be unprecedented ,the Sahara would flood
No nature I expect will say enough is enough and the jet will move more north
You’d need the jet down there for at least another fortnight for Siberian balls to be played
Highly unlikely,it’s a scientists fantasy in my opinion and it better be only that
I never rule out anything

While it's unlikely, as you say can't we rule anything out. Nature has been flipped on its head at the moment.
We are in unprecedented territory with the major straospheric warming followed by an even more extreme Canadian warming(which has never happened before in February) - without which our easterly would likely have failed.
As a result we have seen bizzare charts in the last couple of weeks.
Also as i mentioned in the other thread after December 2010, you'd have probably said it was highly unlikely you'd see an event akin to 1982 within 8 years.
Whatever happens strat experts will be studying the year 2018 for years to come. It seems we have a long way to go in fully understanding what goes on up there.

nacho libre wrote: »

Close to round 2, albeit not as severe, if this verifies.


Also I notice the UKMO are in fact hinting at the possibility.

Yeah I always thought that 2-3 weeks after the initial blast we would see some sort of reload, how severe that may be is anyone's guess. It would be very unusual to see another potent blast but given the unusual strat developments I wouldn't rule it out. The Jet is all over the place still.

Paddy's weekend/following week to turn cold to very cold under a flow somehwere North of East is my call. Winter to have atleast one more go at us.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

They may be studying rare events but they’re also studying normality
I haven’t had a 1982 since 1982
Long time

2010 was fine it happened in winter at the start of winter
I see no evidence that this episode will continue into summer as some fringe lunatics (none here) would like
So expect me to look for signs of spring in this thread tbh and only comment on wintry weather if it’s at greater than 50% probability
Currently I’d put it at 10

Yeah to be fair I would also enjoy warmer weather at this stage but I never turn my back on snow. I would go for a 50% chance of a colder spell before months end and a 10-15% chance of it being severe. Only basing this on our highly unusual current setup from a northern Hemisphere point of view and also I'm expecting this blank sun to really start to show its hand in the coming months.
It would not surprise me if we end the month with An IMT close to March 2013.

Anyway time will tell, hopefully our summer ends up dry and sunny and not like every other recent summer of years ending with the number 8.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Why were they smaller drifts?

Because the snow was wetter? Here in West Clare all drifts stopped when the temperature snook a little above 0c.

Judah Cohen @judah47

It is late in the winter but this latest #PolarVortex forecast is supportive of yet another drainage of #cold air from Siberia towards Europe. #BeastFromTheEast, the sequel.

Ding. Ding.

Getting Closer.

Hopefully M.T. Cranium is wrong, and it makes its way to Ireland in time for Easter:D

With April snowfall in mind, here is an article from the late Philip Eden about a snowfall in April 1908:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/The-1908-snowstorm.htm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I've noticed that we could have a very cold second half of March but I'm not sure if I have the energy or interest for another chase.
The SSW and the most exciting charts we've seen in years had this forum buzzing and all for what? - a three day cold snap. Time for a break and here's hoping for next winter.

I just don't get where you are coming from. A three day cold snap that delivered the snowfall of a life time for many, yet you are still not happy. You should have known with a west based nao the chances of the cold spell being sustained was long odds. Scandi highs don't tend to stay around long, but at least with an east based nao it would more than likely have retrogressed to Greenland, rather than Canada. No snowy episode will be perfect- either it's too late in the year for some, not long enough, or too early in the year to deliver proper convective snow. We are a tiny island surrounded by a vast ocean, that brings mild currents our way, we have to
take what we can get. I'd love if we had a prolonged freeze with copious amounts of snow every winter, but they are exceedingly rare, sadly.

ECM 168 hrs






So eh, yeah...things are looking more and more interesting.

ECM has a child of the beast knocking on our door - Could this really happen again? I'm thinking maybe...

A slight shift north and we get a direct hit... Now haven't we been here before?

My confidence will increase if the next UKMO run shows something similar. This must be the Canadian warming coming into play,but as Sryan said the zonal wind reversal will not be as pronounced as last time so perhaps the odds against it happening are higher this time.