FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

sryanbruen · 21-05-2018 8:57pm

Northern blocking idea by the ECM 0z is gone on its 12z run with the high pressure building over us again, so more in line with the GFS on this run now.

Not as warm as GFS 12z but still quite a warm Sunday by the ECM. Quite slack gradients to the south and west of both the UK and Ireland.

Meteorite58 · 21-05-2018 9:01pm

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies looking warm until the end of the month.

Meteorite58 · 21-05-2018 9:10pm

This is way out but with all that heat early next week and potential for humidity and moisture in the atmosphere coming in from Europe there are some massive CAPE readings showing up for Ireland and more so the UK. Interesting to see if it happens.

sdanseo · 21-05-2018 9:14pm

The GFS Para for next Wednesday (caveat: it's 9 days away) is absolutely stunning:

192-778PUK.GIF?21-12

Kermit.de.frog · 21-05-2018 9:18pm

ECM bringing temperatures up to the mid - high twenties next weekend in the midlands, west and northwest. Always cooler toward east and south coasts.

Looks pleasant but there is an increasing risk of thunderstorms with time.

In fact out to 240 hrs is real summer weather that i'm sure we'll all enjoy.

squarecircles · 21-05-2018 9:36pm

sdanseo wrote: »

I'm a tad confused, you don't want talk of Benelux but you talk about Benelux?

The post was light hearted, and the point was that everywhere is well above normal. We regularly point to anomalies further east during an easterly to give us an idea of what's coming.

im a tad confused too,
you talk of benelux,
i talk of benelux,
i never say dont talk of benelux.
you say i say you shudnt talk of Benelux
i take back that making such comparisons is pointless.
talk about whatever,and where ever you like.

you could have made the comparison without deriding the
temperatures forecast for the west next week.Its been a long cold winter and spring.
but as you say it was light hearted but in my humble opinion
its far from "freezing"!

sdanseo · 21-05-2018 10:17pm

squarecircles wrote: »

im a tad confused too,
you talk of benelux,
i talk of benelux,
i never say dont talk of benelux.
you say i say you shudnt talk of Benelux
i take back that making such comparisons is pointless.
talk about whatever,and where ever you like.

you could have made the comparison without deriding the
temperatures forecast for the west next week.Its been a long cold winter and spring.
but as you say it was light hearted but in my humble opinion
its far from "freezing"!

I'm just gonna thank think and let's move on

wakka12 · 21-05-2018 10:24pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

ECM bringing temperatures up to the mid - high twenties next weekend in the midlands, west and northwest. Always cooler toward east and south coasts.

Looks pleasant but there is an increasing risk of thunderstorms with time.

In fact out to 240 hrs is real summer weather that i'm sure we'll all enjoy.

Poor leaving cert students

gabeeg · 21-05-2018 10:31pm

It's a right of passage

Kermit.de.frog · 21-05-2018 11:59pm

sdanseo wrote: »

The GFS Para for next Wednesday (caveat: it's 9 days away) is absolutely stunning:

Meteorite58 · 22-05-2018 12:09am

Kermit.de.frog · 22-05-2018 12:18am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

spookwoman · 22-05-2018 12:32am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Am I reading that right as south east and waterford thunder storms?

highdef · 22-05-2018 1:08am

spookwoman wrote: »

Am I reading that right as south east and waterford thunder storms?

Probably most of the Eastern half of the country, assuming the charts play out and all the other ingredients required are in place.

Very early in the season for it though so I'll remain suspicious.

Meteorite58 · 22-05-2018 2:31pm

spookwoman wrote: »

Am I reading that right as south east and waterford thunder storms?

These set ups hard to predict untill a day or so before and even at that can be hard to pin point, the charts have been showing huge CAPE potential early days of next week, the ECM also showing Sun with potential for Thunderstorms.

I would have thought very rare to see a chart like the one above for Ireland.

Will be watching closely no doubt!

Storm 10 · 22-05-2018 3:04pm

meteroite58 Have we any chance of a storm in the West over the weekend

Meteorite58 · 22-05-2018 6:35pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

meteroite58 Have we any chance of a storm in the West over the weekend

Sticking my neck on the block here , could be wrong ( often am

) but I think yes. Looking at very warm temperatures and high humidity and rain bearing cloud coming from SE / E out of Europe. Huge amount of moisture in the atmosphere with potential for very heavy rain/ showers perhaps Sun/ Mon.

Sat more so in the Southern half perhaps but not ruling out the W
Sun perhaps widespread
Mon widespread ( potential for some severe thunderstorms breaking out perhaps )
Tues widespread ( perhaps but not too sure at this stage again potential for severe thunderstorms ).

Just my very amateur opinion. A very interesting spell of weather watching and learning coming up.

sryanbruen · 24-05-2018 5:54pm

Such an odd and unique pattern that I have not seen in my model watching years until now. Up to the first few days of June, it is just a slack easterly flow with rather lower pressure over Ireland, England and Wales but the north and Scotland staying very dry throughout. Through the first week of June, the high pressure from the north just ridges over us and to the east dragging up further warm temperatures. The jet stream is way to the north but the air is just too unstable over us until early June on the models for really settled weather to take place.

Still no sign of a breakdown in this.

The GFS 12z is cooler compared to the 0z especially out west interestingly enough.

sdanseo · 24-05-2018 9:02pm

That consistency I mentioned in the GFS isn't being borne out. Consistent downward high predictions in the last 2 or 3 days.

For the east all dampened significantly by the easterly breeeze and associated banks of cloud. 14 degrees and dull today.

For once, I wish this was coming from the west!

pauldry · 24-05-2018 10:52pm

it looks like Ireland just attracts cool temperate conditions. Now a cooler pool over whole country. still overall pattern warmer than normal but not as good as it looked a few days ago.

Even yesterday my phone had forecast the next 5 days 21 20 22 23 20 but today it says 17 16 19 18 17

sryanbruen · 25-05-2018 8:57pm

Warm and wet is the basic summary for the outlook. GEFS 12z for Dublin perfectly show it. Gradually becoming cooler but still staying on the warmer than average side of upper air temperatures.

Meanwhile, the GFS 12z today is still staying with the same solution of continued unstable easterlies for the rest of May into early June before an area of high pressure builds over top of the country (it briefly attempts to retrogress to Iceland on the 3rd/4th June).

pauldry · 26-05-2018 10:20am

yesterday met eireann said monday would be 25c or mid twenties today 15 to 19c "fresher than of late"

certainly all these thundery outbreaks at weekend look like signalling cooler weather in now

JCX BXC · 26-05-2018 10:39am

pauldry wrote: »

yesterday met eireann said monday would be 25c or mid twenties today 15 to 19c "fresher than of late"

certainly all these thundery outbreaks at weekend look like signalling cooler weather in now

Reading MT's forecast he certainly doesn't seem to think so!

sryanbruen · 26-05-2018 11:30am

GFS 0z still has no changes! Consistent easterly winds and high pressure keeps reforming itself too just to the north of us. Did somebody forget to tell the GFS that Summer is around the corner? :P

sryanbruen · 27-05-2018 10:05am

Finally some changes on the GFS model!

The retrogression of the high becomes more influential on the 0z than before and in fact, a northerly to northeasterly takes place for the first week of June. Becoming very cool and at times, unsettled too.

For those that don't want this, it's an outlier in the GFS ensembles.

SleetAndSnow · 27-05-2018 10:59am

Hopefully that's not what we get. Settled warm conditions please. It's an outlier for now but hopefully the next runs don't show unsettled weather.

sryanbruen · 27-05-2018 11:05am

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Hopefully that's not what we get. Settled warm conditions please. It's an outlier for now but hopefully the next runs don't show unsettled weather.

It's a huge change on yesterday's 0z and well, it seems the GFS ensembles have upgraded the warmth and dry spell regardless of the OP run this morning.

sryanbruen · 27-05-2018 7:33pm

And.... GFS 12z brings the settled solution back. Like yesterday's 0z now again with an initial attempt at retrogression of the high on the 3rd/4th but then comes back down over us. It weakens towards the end of that week before at the end of FI, we get another ridge from the Azores.

Still warm by next Saturday!

Meteorite58 · 28-05-2018 2:15pm

Warm outlook . The Jet taking a very Northely route for another week or so going by today's charts.

sryanbruen · 28-05-2018 7:35pm

GFS 12z is a very warm run again with lots of warm weather throughout. This chart at +312 hours is nice to look at. 564 dam line in through Ireland. I think the atmosphere has gone mad.

FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST