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22-12-2019, 12:38   #91
ZX7R
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FI is starting to trend very wet again with high pressure looking less lightly with each run. high pressure staying more to our south allowing the westerlies to continue feeding in spells of rain over us. We finish up on the 7th of January with a very stormy looking scene with the Atlantic unleashing deep areas of low pressure over us. The Atlantic refusing to let go. We appear to have no ingredients for a cold and settled setup any time soon.

I remember a couple of years ago the eagle did an interview,he was talking about a long run of very wet wether during a summer 96 I think I can be corrected on this, but in the interview he stated if the weather has been the same for so long it doesn't matter what the charts are trending you could bet your house that the weather will continue the same.
That interview and what he said has always stuck in my mind and he always seems to be correct.
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22-12-2019, 12:47   #92
 
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The only consolation is it won’t continue above average wet forever and we might get a better spring summer as a result! Nice day today but as you’ve alluded to on a few occasions, we really need some dry weather to allow the saturated ground to dry up a bit. Endless rain combined with the weak sun and short days has everywhere sodden.
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22-12-2019, 13:43   #93
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I remember a couple of years ago the eagle did an interview,he was talking about a long run of very wet wether during a summer 96 I think I can be corrected on this, but in the interview he stated if the weather has been the same for so long it doesn't matter what the charts are trending you could bet your house that the weather will continue the same.
That interview and what he said has always stuck in my mind and he always seems to be correct.
he could well be correct. If the CFS is anything to go by in their long term outlook, they are signaling this pattern to stick with us right through to June 2020. I really hope this is not the case but it wouldn't surprise me if it did. Once the Atlantic is fully powered up and there is nothing preventing it from running out of steam, it will just go on and on. Most of the long term models in the Autumn were signaling a very zonal and Atlantic driven winter. They have certainly been right so far.
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22-12-2019, 14:48   #94
 
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The cfs is shoite
There is no technology that can predict weather out that far
As a programme out that far is just for academia looking at probability theory
It has no practical forecasting use AT ALL
Piers Corbyn might be more accurate and his record is up there with stopped clocks

Nature is a wonderful thing,patterns do get stuck,we had it in 95,2013,2010 and more recently 2018
The Eagle is right on that
But stuck patterns eventually change too and when they do,you see it sub 7 days in the models
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22-12-2019, 15:05   #95
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The cfs is shoite
There is no technology that can predict weather out that far
As a programme out that far is just for academia looking at probability theory
It has no practical forecasting use AT ALL
Piers Corbyn might be more accurate and his record is up there with stopped clocks
Gavs weather was going to discontinue using the CFS Long Range but decided a mixture of the CFS and Beijing CC going forward. Of course most models more than 7 days ahead aren't really worth much, they give insights into what possibly might happen. The past 2 weeks has shown that even 3 days ahead is difficult.

I will say tho that the long range for Winter is bang on so far, then again the probability of a mild zonal winter outlook has a much higher chance of working out compared to a wintry winter forecast, and last winter was one of those and failed spectacularly.
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22-12-2019, 15:06   #96
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I agree the CFS is near useless ^ but it doesn't quite show a continuation of the current pattern on its latest output - Jan 2020 looks cold and easterly driven -



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22-12-2019, 15:24   #97
 
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Gavs weather was going to discontinue using the CFS Long Range but decided a mixture of the CFS and Beijing CC going forward.
just for site content tbh

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I will say tho that the long range for Winter is bang on so far, then again the probability of a mild zonal winter outlook has a much higher chance of working out compared to a wintry winter forecast, and last winter was one of those and failed spectacularly.
Some of these LRF's are forecasting our climactic norm
It's easier to be right when you do that.
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22-12-2019, 23:34   #98
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Only predict a cold snowy winter if you wish to be laughed at ten times* and congratulated once.


*could be 15 or 20!
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25-12-2019, 22:35   #99
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A way off but the models similar in showing areas of LP deepening close to Ireland around next Weds. Lively Jet.












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25-12-2019, 22:39   #100
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Look at that jet. Bound to be a storm sometime next week.
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25-12-2019, 22:52   #101
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Look at that jet. Bound to be a storm sometime next week.
Looks like a sharp Temperature gradient. Something to keep an eye on.







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27-12-2019, 12:55   #102
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so far no end in sight of the mild spell. It just goes on and on. The one positive thing is that it doesn't look nearly as wet as the 4 months leading up to Christmas. Prospects of a cold spell look slim to none over the next few weeks unless there is a serious and sudden change. Low pressure deepening over the pole, Greenland and Scandinavia for first 2 weeks of January. We stay on the warm side of the jet for the entirety of the run.

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27-12-2019, 19:47   #103
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More under HP influence out to +240 hrs from the main models and GFS goes on in that vein well out into FI . Not all mild , a few colder incursions also but not lasting long more than a couple of days and mostly NW'ly sourced. Around next Fri might be briefly cool going by the ECM and GFS before the SW'lys return.

HP doing it's job blocking weather systems moving in over us. Strong airflow where the isobars tighten off the W coasts and where the Jet mostly tracks North of the country around the HP.

ECM going for a remarkable low amount of rainfall the last few runs.





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27-12-2019, 23:24   #104
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Looks a bit like last December at a glance. Mild, dry, fitful amounts of sun. I'll take it after the splooge that has been the last two months.
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29-12-2019, 16:19   #105
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Is there anything to be said for another Mass?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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