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Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    MT warning his winter forecast may not be what we want to hear tomorrow. I do want to see a very mild November and early December, then by law of averages the pattern must change by mid to end December to much colder weather. And we're due a colder than average winter. Purely speculating here, no science involved.

    He mentions the word mild is going to get a decent workout this winter, it couldn't be even milder than last winter unless were talking about 12-15C days throughout the winter 3 month period and a record breaking Polar Vortex that beats last year's record breaking PV.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,958 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    Luckily MT is as accurate as every long range forecast :)

    Still, looking forward to hearing his thoughts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    MT warning his winter forecast may not be what we want to hear tomorrow. I do want to see a very mild November and early December, then by law of averages the pattern must change by mid to end December to much colder weather. And we're due a colder than average winter. Purely speculating here, no science involved.


    This is the impression i got from his post last week. As we see the polar vortex is now firing up, which could last months before we get a pattern change.
    However if systems start to run on a nw- se axis we could eek some snow days out of it in some parts of the country, but it will be short-lived before the Atlantic takes over again.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    the Atlantic is set to be unleashed and the PV is going to really power up over the next few weeks, however that is perfectly normal behavior for November. It's rare that we get a dry and cold November. November is typically one of the wettest months of the year as the PV usually kicks itself into gear by November. November 2018 and November 2019 were both incredibly wet here in Meath.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Gonzo wrote: »
    the Atlantic is set to be unleashed and the PV is going to really power up over the next few weeks, however that is perfectly normal behavior for November. It's rare that we get a dry and cold November. November is typically one of the wettest months of the year as the PV usually kicks itself into gear by November. November 2018 and November 2019 were both incredibly wet here in Meath.

    Yes it is, but once the Polar Vortex powers up it can last for months depending on how strong it is. We just have to hope it can be split or disrupted at some stage. It will be disappointing , with all the low solar activity in recent years, if we don't get something favourable this winter.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    I remember a work colleague of mine last year talking about how even in her native Estonia they had no snow that Christmas, and temperatures were about 15 degrees above average, seems to be the same depressing story elsewhere in Europe. The thing is that it would have be considered weird a decade ago, but at least in this part of the world its fully expected at this stage. Every consecutive winter seems to be guaranteed to be worse than the one that went before. As much as I dislike the term as it’s been used this year, this seems to be the new normal (and as with every year, I’d very much like to be proven wrong).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Well you might not find this too discouraging ... the winter outlook that I will be including in the morning forecast ...

    Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,477 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Well you might not find this too discouraging ... the winter outlook that I will be including in the morning forecast ...

    Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts.

    The cold usually gets pushed out to March/April,seems to be the trend more often than not the last 10 years


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Well you might not find this too discouraging ... the winter outlook that I will be including in the morning forecast ...

    Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts.

    that almost sounds like a repeat of last winter, not good news at all!


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,355 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Well you might not find this too discouraging ... the winter outlook that I will be including in the morning forecast ...

    Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts.

    I'll take it. I much rather cold weather at or after Christmas. There's not a lot else happening in January/February.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    I'll take it. I much rather cold weather at or after Christmas. There's not a lot else happening in January/February.


    So do I but according to MT January is a write off so we’re left with February which is a long time to wait. So hard to get a cold, snowy week in January these days. Last one was Jan 2010. 2013 was cold in parts but we got only got cold rain at lower levels.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    V much an amateur when it comes to all things forecasting. But is there a strong connection between full moons and wind storms?

    I believe there is yes. Not much of an expert to be honest. I’ll leave it for someone with more knowledge to answer this.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The scenario I outlined doesn't exclude all of January, wasn't there a pretty good snowfall event in late Jan 2009 that continued into first few days of February? Had there been much wintry action before that? I seem to recall Jan 2009 being a rather cold month generally at least in Britain. The signal I've come across in the analogue set is basically a transitional zonal to blocking signal. We have to hope it comes early and well-defined. Reminds me a bit of 2012-13 which was no blockbuster of a winter but have we seen a better one since? (late Feb 2018 excluded)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I'll take it. I much rather cold weather at or after Christmas. There's not a lot else happening in January/February.

    cold in the second half of winter usually gets delayed week by week and suddenly it's almost April, just when the PV start's to weaken.

    If MT's forecast proofs to be correct we better start hoping for a major SSW event in December or early January at the latest.

    But back to the present, we still have 6 weeks of Autumn left to go so winter is still quite a while away. The jetstream and the PV are powering up very quickly now, let's hope it doesn't stay relentless the entire way through the winter like it did last year!.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    It's very wintery this morning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,491 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Let it be cold and snowy jan Feb and March. But come April warmer weather is all I want to see on the charts.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,646 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    I'll take it. I much rather cold weather at or after Christmas. There's not a lot else happening in January/February.

    Most likely if we do see any wintery event it wouldn't be until March/April based off recent trends.
    It's very wintery this morning.

    Is it? It's 14degrees and very stuffy here in Dublin. Very very mild today. Forecast is mid-teens all week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    Let it be cold and snowy jan Feb and March. But come April warmer weather is all I want to see on the charts.

    I would plead to the weather gods to let it be snowy from November, if we could revel in the snow like we did a few years ago maybe it would give people a renewed sense of purpose during these trying times. It will already be a winter like no other.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Surely this has to be the coldest Winter ever since it is 2020.

    I dont think it will be mild till February. I see cold earlier than that.

    10 foot of snow and everyone stuck at home for 2 weeks and suddenly when its all gone we realise so too is the virus!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭antimatterx


    pauldry wrote: »
    Surely this has to be the coldest Winter ever since it is 2020.

    I dont think it will be mild till February. I see cold earlier than that.

    10 foot of snow and everyone stuck at home for 2 weeks and suddenly when its all gone we realise so too is the virus!

    Would be an amazing way to end the year.


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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,646 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Would be an amazing way to end the year.

    It really would be but anything other than a mild wet winter would prob be less odds than me winning the euromillions.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    next two weeks will have mild and cool interludes, a typical scenario with the Atlantic on steroids over the next few weeks.

    Today is one of the milder days with +8 uppers across the country and +10 not too far from the Wexford coastline. Overall the next 2 weeks will be milder than it has been for the past month in terms of temperature anomolies for the time of year. There will be very little if anything in the way of frost with too much wind and rain and fairly average temperatures.


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Im with Pauldry, 10 to 20 ft snow drifts at least...
    ��
    Its interesting MT sees it drier than average as well as milder... i would of thought that would indicate a south west direction with fronts lining up?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭nthclare


    pauldry wrote: »
    Surely this has to be the coldest Winter ever since it is 2020.

    I dont think it will be mild till February. I see cold earlier than that.

    10 foot of snow and everyone stuck at home for 2 weeks and suddenly when its all gone we realise so too is the virus!

    I've a feeling this could be a possibility.
    Never ever have I seen such clarity of stars and the night sky so different without the planes dispersing trails blocking or interfering with the views of the night sky.

    I don't know myself if air traffic disrupts the upper lairs of the atmosphere.
    But I think without the constant flow of planes in certain places the weather could be effected.
    I'm open to correction, because I don't have knowledge of the weather patterns.
    And all I follow is the forecast and the seasons effecting nature and the topography etc

    But as a guy who doesn't fly much, maybe once every 6 years.
    I love the clarity and crisp fresh air.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    bazlers wrote: »
    Im with Pauldry, 10 to 20 ft snow drifts at least...
    ��
    Its interesting MT sees it drier than average as well as milder... i would of thought that would indicate a south west direction with fronts lining up?

    Perhaps he think there will be a euro high much of the time, which draws milder air up over us for the early part of winter, the high then migrate to Greenland in January or possibly February:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    bazlers wrote: »
    Im with Pauldry, 10 to 20 ft snow drifts at least...
    ��
    Its interesting MT sees it drier than average as well as milder... i would of thought that would indicate a south west direction with fronts lining up?

    Not sure I see how it's "interesting". Mild and dry hasn't been unusual in winter here in past few years. Several examples:

    CFSR_1_2019122912_1.png

    CFSR_1_2018123006_1.png

    CFSR_1_2016123006_1.png

    2016-17 and 2018-19 were textbook mild and dry winters, 2018-19 being exceptionally mild.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.789

    We could do with a 1684 winter. Imagine if this happened in our times..


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.789

    We could do with a 1684 winter. Imagine if this happened in our times..

    It could prove to be the tipping point moment of the year for some people if that happened.


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Not sure I see how it's "interesting". Mild and dry hasn't been unusual in winter here in past few years. Several examples:

    CFSR_1_2019122912_1.png

    CFSR_1_2018123006_1.png

    CFSR_1_2016123006_1.png

    2016-17 and 2018-19 were textbook mild and dry winters, 2018-19 being exceptionally mild.

    I find all weather interesting thanks. Thats why its a weather forum.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    bazlers wrote: »
    I find all weather interesting thanks. Thats why its a weather forum.

    Fine, thought you were trying to indicate something along the lines of "unusual atmosphere" that we've seen many a time in recent years. Just my personal fatigue kicking in from all these reoccurring patterns like mild and dry winters, these extreme plumes, high latitude blocking in the autumns etc. It all gets old after a while.


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