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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    I love storms too. Absolutely love them. The more powerful the better.
    They make the Earth seem wildly alive and remind me how wonderful and mighty nature is. I find them very grounding actually.

    Spare a prayer for the 11 crewmembers of the tug that sank after getting caught up in Lorenzo still missing since Friday only 3 survived




  • 7 of the 20 6Z ensembles show the system coming over the country in varying degree of intensity. The others keep it out west.

    gens-16-1-84_oma8.png


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,622 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Mod Note: For everyone who wants to know....will it be windy in X or will I have to cancel Y? Please refer to....

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055579971

    or

    https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast

    Please do not derail the thread with questions nobody can answer!


  • Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    Hurricane Lorenzo remains powerful and large at this time, and will only grow in size in the run up to the storm's closest pass to the Azores on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The storm could impact the region with winds of 90mph or higher, with hurricane force winds possible on multiple islands. Lorenzo is then expected to push further northeast, with models not yet sure whether it will affect the British Isles and western Europe, or turn back towards Greenland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,322 ✭✭✭m17


    AgD0TmK.jpg


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,172 ✭✭✭emo72


    Hard to believe it will make that distance by Thursday. Will it speed up as it travels further north?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,322 ✭✭✭m17


    LywEme8.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭aisling86


    11am advisory will be interesting


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,322 ✭✭✭m17


    ZYbTgLX.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,354 ✭✭✭irishgeo


    m17 wrote: »
    LywEme8.jpg

    What time zone is AST and how far behind Irish time is that?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 744 ✭✭✭topcat77


    irishgeo wrote: »
    What time zone is AST and how far behind Irish time is that?

    -4 hrs


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    topcat77 wrote: »
    -4 hrs

    Interesting. This could be like Storm Ali which was very strong in Galway/Mayo. It hit hard between 8am and 11am.
    The damage was made worse by the fact the trees still had leaves. I saw 2 trees uprooted on the 20 min drive to work but there were many more already fallen.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,331 ✭✭✭OneEightSeven


    emo72 wrote: »
    Hard to believe it will make that distance by Thursday. Will it speed up as it travels further north?


    Just like Orphelia, when it transitions into an extratropical storm, it will interact will another system, rapidly pick up the pace and head northward. Below is a satellite video of Ophelia.






    The transition occurred off of the coast of the Iberian Peninsula.



  • Registered Users Posts: 583 ✭✭✭aisling86


    11am update


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,088 ✭✭✭stevek93


    There was a very good website that showed a live map of hurricanes mentioned here last year but I cannot find it now.

    Edit:

    Never mind https://www.ventusky.com


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,290 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Latest discussion :

    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 301502
    TCDAT3

    Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 33
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
    1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

    Lorenzo continues to maintain its strength. A cloud filled eye is
    evident in infrared satellite imagery, while convection is
    attempting to wrap around a break in the southern portion of the
    hurricane. This is indicating that for the time being, the cyclone
    is fighting off some of the dry air entraining into it from the
    southwest. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and
    SAB remain at 90 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this
    advisory.

    Lorenzo continues north-northeastward, now at 13 kt, around the
    northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Over the next couple
    of days Lorenzo will be accelerated northeastward by increasing
    southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough amplifying across
    the central Atlantic. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo
    near or just west of the western Azores late Tuesday and early
    Wednesday. The forecast track confidence is high through 72 hours,
    but decreases significantly thereafter, as forecast models continue
    to differ on their handling of the steering flow. By that time, the
    steering flow may break down as the trough to the west of Lorenzo
    de-amplifies, while an extratropical low quickly approaches from the
    west. Some of the forecast models turn Lorenzo north ahead of the
    approaching low as they begin to interact, other solutions turn
    Lorenzo or its remnants to the east in the westerlies, with
    limited interaction with this low. The official forecast track is
    very close to the previous one and to the consensus aids, which lies
    in between these two scenarios.

    Lorenzo should gradually weaken over the next couple of days while
    drier air continues to get pulled into the circulation and the
    system moves over progressively cooler waters. After 48 hours, the
    interaction with the approaching trough, an associated cold front,
    and very strong southwesterly shear will help transition Lorenzo
    into an extratropical low. This transition is expected to be
    complete by 72 hours. The low is then expected to either dissipate
    or become absorbed by another extratropical low by day 5. The
    official forecast intensity is very similar to the previous one,
    and is in good agreement with the consensus aids.

    Key Messages:

    1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
    winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions
    will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
    are now in effect for the Azores.

    2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
    much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
    swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 30/1500Z 30.0N 42.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
    12H 01/0000Z 31.7N 41.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
    24H 01/1200Z 34.5N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
    36H 02/0000Z 38.1N 34.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
    48H 02/1200Z 43.3N 28.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
    72H 03/1200Z 53.5N 17.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 04/1200Z 58.2N 11.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Latto

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 76,209 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    stevek93 wrote: »
    There was a very good website that showed a live map of hurricanes mentioned here last year but I cannot find it now.

    Edit:

    Never mind https://www.ventusky.com

    This (also mentioned earlier) was very good, too.

    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-33.67,49.10,695/loc=-75.000,-39.684


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,088 ✭✭✭stevek93


    New Home wrote: »

    Oh that looks nice, I will put on my wall board in work and scare my colleagues. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Latest ECM has it closing in on the NW coast as a strong system, but not exceptionally so.

    xRXkLQz.png


    And the latest GFS, a bit further north, but both models seem to be picking up on a possible new trend in having the storm taking a more easterly route thereafter.

    ZeRG3N3.png

    Until they probably drop it again in the next set of runs.:rolleyes:

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,322 ✭✭✭m17


    SJJCP62.jpg


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain




  • Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    If the storm did hit overnight, would be interesting to see the damage the next morning on both the West and East coast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 717 ✭✭✭limericklad87


    TTLF wrote: »
    If the storm did hit overnight, would be interesting to see the damage the next morning on both the West and East coast.

    In what way?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,284 ✭✭✭dublinman1990


    UKMET Weather for the Week ahead forecast has Lorenzo on three tracks in the British Isles. One of the paths could directly hit Ireland & Northern Scotland.



    The weather update on Today on RTÉ One is still uncertain as to where it could go after Wednesday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    In what way?

    Mainly just where it affected the country more, since the latest run has a foul swoop throughout the West coast, and straight down the middle into the east coast. (Stuff like falling trees etc)

    Obviously though the West coast would most likely get it worse, considering they’re by the Atlantic.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,354 ✭✭✭irishgeo


    TTLF wrote: »
    Mainly just where it affected the country more, since the latest run has a foul swoop throughout the West coast, and straight down the middle into the east coast. (Stuff like falling trees etc)

    Obviously though the West coast would most likely get it worse, considering they’re by the Atlantic.

    The west is more used to these storms though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,795 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    irishgeo wrote: »
    The west is more used to these storms though.

    Very true. I often work outdoors & had no problem working during the previous storms. I will be by the sea on Thurday & Friday. It's a totally different mentality even between rural Galway & the City.

    It's a big benefit if storms arrive at night, especially late when most people are home. The biggest hazard are the power failures & the fact that people don't secure trampolines, wheelie bins etc.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    m17 wrote: »
    LywEme8.jpg

    Just a reminder for people who might be worried, in NHC-speak, "Storm Force" means anything from gale-force (34 knots) up, so storm force on a chart does not necessarily mean something very strong and may not include what we would call Storm Force 10 or 11. Plus their numbers are 1-minute averages, which are about 10% higher than the standard 10-minute averages that we would be used to and that Met Éireann use. Bottom line, don't panic when you see the chart.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    irishgeo wrote: »
    The west is more used to these storms though.

    Does not make them any less devastating or dangerously damaging though . Fewer trees out here though ;)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Was wondering how a deep low could remain deep when it hits the colder waters of our Atlantic

    Its the jet

    So Lorenzo leaves the warm waters of the Azores and heads North into the cold Atlantic but the jet picks it up then and it loses less of its intensity. So look at the jet forecast and thats a likely track for Lorenzo

    Whats more likely though it that no one will know for 60 to 70 hours


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