Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

Graces7 · 25-11-2019 1:26am

Gonzo wrote: »

I'm hoping the forecast is wrong again this year. Wasn't really his fault that the forecast didn't go according to plan last year. The long term models had a winter mostly dominated by northern blocking, very cold conditions and the January SSW event, of course we all know how last winter went pear shaped to say the least.

His forecast today is based on similar models, but they are going for an endless run of wet and mild conditions, not just for the UK and Ireland, but much of Europe too with some very mild anomalies, these could be overcooked.

Winter is still a week away, so plenty of time for these long range predictions to change. If the conditions of the past 3 months were to persist all the way to March, I think i'd lose my marbles.

For many non Irish and non-meteorols we have been in winter a while already which is why I post here these days. This protracted chill is very hard on many of us , so mild would be greatly welcomed, frankly.

Always the weather will suit some but not others! Just the way it is. This cold is torture .

Oneiric 3 · 25-11-2019 10:02am

Long range/seasonal model forecasts are fun to look at but are essentially crap, and I include the ECMWF output in this. Great ensemble model up to about 12 or 15 days but anything after that, useless, and more especially for the N. Atlantic & Europe region. I really wonder why they, or any other NWP output organisation bother spending money on, running and releasing such useless data.

Mortelaro · 25-11-2019 11:00am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Long range/seasonal model forecasts are fun to look at but are essentially crap, and I include the ECMWF output in this. Great ensemble model up to about 12 or 15 days but anything after that, useless, and more especially for the N. Atlantic & Europe region. I really wonder why they, or any other NWP output organisation bother spending money on, running and releasing such useless data.

Agree
Gavs look ahead at winter for those models is just for fun,its not a winter forecast

ninebeanrows · 25-11-2019 12:02pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Long range/seasonal model forecasts are fun to look at but are essentially crap, and I include the ECMWF output in this. Great ensemble model up to about 12 or 15 days but anything after that, useless, and more especially for the N. Atlantic & Europe region. I really wonder why they, or any other NWP output organisation bother spending money on, running and releasing such useless data.

Demand, people/industry want those forecasts and they are valuable whether right or wrong.

There are lots of people making huge money on these forecasts even though their skill beyond week 3 is minimal.

Longing · 25-11-2019 12:05pm

We can only dream. Someday!

https://twitter.com/buitengebieden_/status/1198724670662557697

DOCARCH · 25-11-2019 12:13pm

Longing wrote: »

We can only dream. Someday!

I'd be happy enough at 10 seconds!

Gonzo · 25-11-2019 12:17pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

I'd be happy enough at 10 seconds!

most of Ireland didn't even get 10 seconds last winter! Can we do better this year!

Reckless Abandonment · 25-11-2019 12:24pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

I'd be happy enough at 10 seconds!

At this point all I want is the sunshine at the end of the video

Gonzo · 25-11-2019 12:25pm

this mornings GFS runs have changed quite significantly.

The cool/chilly spell is now looking more certain and prolonged lasting from about the 29th of November to the 4th of December. The main thing that caught my eye is the lack of precipitation spikes, it's been a long time since I've seen a run this dry. Looks like we could finally have decent drying with this cool spell. High pressure could sit over or near for us a few days, a very welcome relief for most of us.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-11-25&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-11-25&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

Slashermcguirk · 25-11-2019 12:39pm

Gonzo wrote: »

most of Ireland didn't even get 10 seconds last winter! Can we do better this year!

Some great snow at the end of January this year. I was up around Leitrim / Roscommon and was snowed in at the hotel I was staying

fryup · 25-11-2019 12:41pm

nevermind snow...will we even get any severe frost?? last year i don't think we got any substantial period of zub sero temperatures ?

Monkeynut · 25-11-2019 1:20pm

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Demand, people/industry want those forecasts and they are valuable whether right or wrong.

There are lots of people making huge money on these forecasts even though their skill beyond week 3 is minimal.

Just to add.
You have to keep outputting them. That's how they progress. The more time it gets outputted the more a machine can learn and try amend. If you stop, well then it can't get better.

My 2 cents

Logan Roy · 25-11-2019 1:40pm

Monkeynut wrote: »

Just to add.
You have to keep outputting them. That's how they progress. The more time it gets outputted the more a machine can learn and try amend. If you stop, well then it can't get better.

My 2 cents

They don't have to be published for the public to view though.

Monkeynut · 25-11-2019 1:46pm

Logan Roy wrote: »

They don't have to be published for the public to view though.

Yes they don't. But why not. Take them like a grain of salt or ignore them. Also the more eyes on them being publicly published, the more input people could help. Whether its in the public domain is irrelevant. The papers will make up their own weather then. Lol
I don't understand them nor do want too. But as I said just a thought.

Oneiric 3 · 26-11-2019 2:36pm

On this day back in 2010, Winter began. Started snowing here about 3pm or thereabouts and it settled quickly. Will never forget the wintry scene as I drove home from work that late afternoon. A full, unabashed whiteout.

Loughc · 26-11-2019 3:29pm

If anyone has a spare week or so check out the 2009/10 Winter threads, they make for great reading!

A long long way away from the past few winters.

Graces7 · 26-11-2019 4:23pm

Loughc wrote: »

If anyone has a spare week or so check out the 2009/10 Winter threads, they make for great reading!

A long long way away from the past few winters.

for which many of us are deeply thankful! Once every decade is more than enough.. I came to Ireland from the North Sea to get away from deep snow and bitter cold every winter... for some warmth in my declining years :rolleyes:

Logan Roy · 28-11-2019 12:06am

Very quiet on all the threads the past few days, must not be any interesting weather on the horizon.

Goldfinch8 · 28-11-2019 1:04am

Dry and frosty is interesting enough for me Logan Roy. Beats the grey murky stuff hands down!

Monkeynut · 29-11-2019 11:20pm

highdef wrote: »

I'm going on holiday a week before Christmas so a nice cold and snowy spell just before that would make holidays seem all the better.... Bring it on! Knowing my luck it'll get delayed and there'll be the blizzard of the century the day after I go away.

We're all banking on your luck for the winter now highdef.

Don't let us down!!

Rebelbrowser · 30-11-2019 12:16am

Plenty signs of cold on 18z gfs from 11 Dec onwards. Miles away and not particularly severe, but intrigued to think the significance this could have in the UK if it came to pass given the election on 12 Dec. Lots of older tories in particular mightnt be able to vote if it was snowy Id imagine.....

alentejo · 01-12-2019 10:10am

Still can't believe there is still some rain lingering around in Dublin this morning. Forcasts since Wednesday have been indicating a cold but dry day for Sunday.

appledrop · 01-12-2019 10:39am

Well the rain is back surprise surprise.

Ah well it's a day for staying at home+ getting the house in order.

So glad we decided on yesterday for the park.

DOCARCH · 01-12-2019 10:39am

alentejo wrote: »

Still can't believe there is still some rain lingering around in Dublin this morning. Forcasts since Wednesday have been indicating a cold but dry day for Sunday.

Yip! Winter has started in Dublin as Autumn left off....light rain.

appledrop · 01-12-2019 10:42am

You would have to laugh at Met eireann app + sunshine for North County Dublin while it's raining.

Surely they would look out the window in Glasnevin be mortified + change it?

Goldfinch8 · 01-12-2019 10:53am

Clear skies and a touch of frost still about the place in central Mayo. Third respectable day in a row down these parts. The East certainly seems to have been drawing the short straw weather wise in recent weeks.

ongarite · 01-12-2019 10:58am

More rain this morning in Kildare.
Overcast, grey wet morning.
Was hoping it could stay dry for few more days to dry the place & keep my car somewhat clean!

highdef · 01-12-2019 12:20pm

Had wet snow in North Kildare around dawn this morning. Was very surprised as I was expecting frost this morning.

Meteorite58 · 01-12-2019 12:23pm

Been a few nondescript days here in Kerry, a lot of cloud cover and feeling cool when there is no sunlight but predominantly dry at least. Good for the shoppers and the Christmas parades I suppose. Looking mostly dry until Wednesday with the Atlantic counties soaking up most of the rain as the expected front weakens moving inland, probably very little once it reaches the midlands. Thurs rain looks to mostly stick to the W and N followed by rain sweeping down the country early Fri.

Been a very welcome dry spell, must get a few jobs done in the garden today.

Windy along W/ NW coasts Thurs and breezy overland. Temps getting up over 10 to 12C on Thurs / Fri

Signals of unsettled weather for next weekend and possibly stormy next Sunday but better kept in the FI thread for now as a bit off yet.

Cork Boy 53 · 01-12-2019 12:49pm

Winter 2019/20 has started dry and sunny here in west Cork. It won`t last beyond today if the forecast is accurate so it`s a case of making the most of it while it`s here.

Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

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