Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

sryanbruen wrote: »

Have to shake my head saying "if only it were December, or January" with this evening's GFS 12z for early to mid October.

A carbon copy of last October so!

And we all know what’s in store for us this December and January then.

At least I won’t be disappointed this winter because I am expecting a typical Irish mild winter.

What a waste. Tragic!

Sadists showing that now:mad:

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Big snowfalls in parts of Montana yesterday.

https://www.npr.org/2019/09/30/765694898/up-to-4-feet-of-snow-montana-hit-by-unprecedented-winter-storm?t=1569861004904

Lucky sods.
That's a place i've always wanted to visit. Thanks for the article. Regarding our winter, i hope the low solar activity plays a decisive factor this year.

nacho libre wrote: »

In other news, as sure as the sun rises in the east, our good friend Madden has predicted a cold and snowy winter. Its a genius strategy because every 10 years or so he will be right, and the press won't focus on the nine time he got it wrong. The Daily Express probably pay him a bonus to predict snowmageddon.

Wait for it - George Lee will be banging on about it on RTE next!

To think we have almost six months of this s***e ahead of us before northern blocking sets in next April is totally depressing.

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Elmer, you don't think 10 Oct is a bit early to be depressed about the coming winter even by your standards?

No real northern blocking during a winter month since December 2010 tells me all I need to know. I see no reason why Svalbard for example won't be up to 6-8 degrees above normal AGAIN this winter.
Even mild winters half a century ago could deliver a few snowy days from a potent northerly, northerlies now only last about a day and aren't even cold. I've given up!

NOAA are predicting the US will have higher than average temperatures for December.

Would this not be a good thing for us? Less chances of cold air going into the Atlantic firing up the jet stream and less chance of get hit with storm after storm?

Lucreto wrote: »

NOAA are predicting the US will have higher than average temperatures for December.

Would this not be a good thing for us? Less chances of cold air going into the Atlantic firing up the jet stream and less chance of get hit with storm after storm?

In theory, yes. But the Atlantic has other ways of spoiling the party for us. Just because N America may be unusually mild in winter does not guarantee prolonged cold for us unfortunately

Some parts of the US have been having quite a winter since September. Please give us your wintry conditions for the winter since you've had your fair share of winter weather!

bazlers wrote: »

So what is the general consensus for this winter? Are we looking at another mild and wet set up or something more akin to Narnia!

It's still too early to answer that and last winter taught us not to get excited! Personally, I feel it's going to be another 2013-14 but less extreme.

This is what I have come up with after the usual process. The mid-November update might be more than just a tweak this time, I could see this going several different ways as there are some unusual synoptics in various regions of the hemisphere. But the emphasis in my research study was on high-energy events. I don't think low pressure areas this winter will be fooling around, they are going to be packed with energy and moisture compared to some winters. Possibly 2013-14 is somewhat of an analogue, although I would say, shifted a bit south of that onslaught of storms. This is copied from my post on Net-weather which explains a Britain and Ireland focus in the wording.

The following is a preliminary long-range forecast for winter 2019-20, If it seems necessary, I will amend or update this forecast in mid-November.

This appears likely to be a season where high energy weather events will be grappling with a fairly robust supply of colder air at high latitudes.

Britain and Ireland can expect a very unsettled winter with frequent low pressure systems steered by a strong jet stream running a little south of its average position.

This favours a split north-south outcome where the south is often on the milder side of the storm track getting strong southwest winds and rain, while the north is more open to snow, ice and easterly winds.

The north-south divide may be enhanced by the likely appearance of strong blocking highs over eastern Scandinavia and western Russia. I don't think these are going to dominate the circulation but they will come into conflict with the zonal regime at times, forcing it to dive southeast around 5-10W and into France and the western Mediterranean. This may be another winter of heavy Alpine snowfalls and frequent severe cold spells in Germany and possibly Belgium and Netherlands into northeast France.

Battleground conditions seem likely at times across southeast England into Wales and central to northern Ireland. Frequent snow events may occur in northern and even central England, and southern Scotland, also Northern Ireland and some adjacent parts of the Republic of Ireland.

Some heavy precipitation is likely in this scenario, heavy rain in most cases in southern England, especially the southwest, and the southern third of Ireland (Munster and south Leinster).

A set-up like this may not remain steady-state, but could fluctuate north-south bringing the milder conditions further north at times, while setting the battleground further south at other times. However, the tendency will be for temperatures to average closer to normal or above in the southwest, and below normal in Scotland.

This pattern could evolve into a colder February or even March if the strong jet stream loses energy, then the blocking may be able to assert more control.

North America can expect a rather harsh winter in general, with severe cold waves at times, colliding with an active storm track from Texas northeast towards Virginia and southeastern New England. There could therefore be heavier than average snowfalls in the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and inland Mid-Atlantic to northeastern states. A pattern like this would not rule out one or two coastal blizzards in the mix. The west will be dominated by persistent cold high pressure trapped in valleys, and coastal areas will have a fairly average winter with a lot of rain, low cloud and moderate southeast winds. Snow on western mountains will be generally a bit above average but might be twice normal in the southern Rockies and northern Arizona around Flagstaff. Drought will break during the winter for California.

This may also be one of those winters where extreme cold moves south from Siberia into China, Korea and Japan.

I'll go against the grain and go for a cold winter with plentiful snow. Mild start, increasingly cold towards the end of December followed by one proper cold spell in early/mid January. Couple of one-day snows in February and early March.