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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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The NHC have strangely classified the ragged low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico a tropical storm (Nestor). At most it should be subtropical as it has never had any tropical structure and is primarily being fed by an upper trough. It's only just managed to develop a circulation centre.
It's just making landfall along the Florida panhandle this morning.
Water vapour
89 GHZ
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It's more like a typical MCS, but it has been producing a lot of lightning.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/768c7bbe645c0720bba9b5acc3f68cae0ee50456a3acb5e58886a051b645852d.gif
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Here we go again?
2. Shower activity has increased this morning near the center of a
large non-tropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of
the western Azores. Some additional development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it moves generally
east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Pablo should affect the main Azores eastern islands tomorrow afternoon and then become extratropical and fizzle out between there and here on Monday.
It's a really tiny storm, less than 100 miles across, and is under an area of very strong upper southwesterlies.
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Pablo is not really a true tropical storm but more like a medicane, only forming due to high CAPE from a cold upper trough that came down from eastern Canada during the week. SST are only around 23 C, way too low to sustaing a typical tropical system, but the cold upper air is enough to offset this and keep instability high enough to feed convection, aided by high windshear. Pablo is tiny and fairly shallow, with no real signature on microwave imagery. Its formation and is owed to totally non-tropical forces.
Ophelia had some similarities too in that it was also aided by a cold upper trough, boosting instability and also poleward outflow. But it developed more like a true tropical system and grew to be much larger and deeper.
Pablo sounding from today, showing the steep lapse rates and high windshear.
85 GHz Color
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In the Indian Ocean, Kyarr has intensified further to CAT 4, and could briefly reach CAT 5 later today. The models are completely split on its track. Some say in a couple of days it will take a sharp turn to the northeast, others (and the official JTWC track) say it will turn southwest towards south of Oman. It's an interesting one to watch.
It has a lovely structure after what looks like an eyewall replacement cycle.
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Very very unlikely to develop with any potency from that far North.Gaoth Laidir wrote: »That system has developed into Tropical Storm Pablo, after the other system in the western Gulf became Tropical Depression Olga a bit earlier. Both are tightly linked with extra-tropical systems and neither will amount to much.Gaoth Laidir wrote: »Pablo should affect the main Azores eastern islands tomorrow afternoon and then become extratropical and fizzle out between there and here on Monday.
Well we were both wrong!
That's two hurricanes now having taken an easterly route towards Ireland in the same year, even if only technically so.
056
WTNT43 KNHC 271450
TCDAT3
Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019
Satellite imagery shows that Pablo has continued to maintain a
small eye, and that the eyewall cloud tops have recently cooled.
In addition, early morning microwave satellite intensity estimates,
as well as the CIMSS satellite consensus, indicate that Pablo has
become a hurricane. The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt as
a blend between the subjective estimate from TAFB and the higher
SATCON estimate, and it is possible this is a little conservative.
The intensification has occurred while Pablo is over sea surface
temperatures of 19-20C, and it is likely that cold mid- to
upper-level air temperatures have allowed the cyclone to maintain
deep convection and strengthen over water temperatures where
tropical cyclones normally weaken.
The initial motion is now 030/28. The cyclone is expected to turn
northward and slow its forward motion as it approaches a frontal
system to the north during the next 12-24 h, and this will be
followed by a turn toward the northwest as a large mid-latitude low
over the north central Atlantic becomes the main steering mechanism.
The track guidance has again shifted a little to the east, and the
new forecast track is also nudged a little to the east of the
previous track. Like the previous forecast, it lies close to the
various consensus models.
Pablo should encounter even colder water along the forecast track,
and global model guidance suggests it should merge with the frontal
system between 12-24 h. This combination should cause Pablo to
weaken and become an extratropical cyclone. Thereafter, the system
should be absorbed by the much larger low to its west between 48-72
h.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 42.8N 18.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 45.3N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 46.9N 17.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 29/0000Z 47.9N 18.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 29/1200Z 49.5N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED0 -
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Haven't been following this but reading up a bit about it this evening and interesting how the cold uppers are keeping the instability going. Unusual to see named Hurricanes this far North . Staying well away from Ireland and set to merge with a large area of LP well off to the SW. It would appear that the rain due Tues evening into Weds comes from this system, could have heavy rain in parts of the SW and along Southern ccouties. . Will introduce a bit of windy weather onto the coasts later Tues into Weds , breezy overland and milder more humid conditions.
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1188488424300265472?s=20
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Pablo is practically gone this morning. Just the larger extratropical low in which it was embedded remains. Satellite winds are below 35 knots.
Pablo was never a true hurricane but more like a classical medicane. It was sustained not from warm waters below but more from cold upper air above, starting off from an extratropical depression that came south off New Foundland last week. There's a chance it may get reclassified as a subtropical storm in the seasonal summary.
There is another deep low to the west of the Azores that is being looked at (INVEST 99) as it too could spawn something as it moves over slightly warmer waters.
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Ok, the now North Atlantic is just taking the piss
1. A large non-tropical low pressure system located more than 400
miles west of the Azores is producing a broad area of gale-force
to hurricane-force winds. The low could gradually acquire
subtropical characteristics over the next few days while the
system moves slowly southward to southeastward over warmer water.
Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development by Friday when the low is forecast to move back over
colder water. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the NOAA National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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hatrickpatrick wrote: »Ok, the now North Atlantic is just taking the piss
1. A large non-tropical low pressure system located more than 400
miles west of the Azores is producing a broad area of gale-force
to hurricane-force winds. The low could gradually acquire
subtropical characteristics over the next few days while the
system moves slowly southward to southeastward over warmer water.
Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development by Friday when the low is forecast to move back over
colder water. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the NOAA National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Something is seriously off, or NOAA are just highlighting these cause they are bored.0 -
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hatrickpatrick wrote: »NHC are now monitoring yet another Tropical Wave off the coast of Africa. 10%/10% only, but still unusual to see an AOI in this area so late in the season.
There are obviously other factors going on this year to heighten Atlantic activity apart from the Modoki El Nino - wind shear is actually fairly high across the tropical Atlantic at the moment despite the ENSO setup and even if it wasn't, that doesn't explain an African Easterly Jet maintaining its northerly position and intensity so late into the year. The North Atlantic isn't that anomalously warm at the moment either, it's definitely a positive AMO but it's no more intense than in any of the +AMO years of the last two decades.
Can anyone with more knowledge of the teleconnections give an insight as to why this season has been throwing curve balls like this, late season MDR convection and disturbances forming very far North? Jeff Masters mentioned that part of the puzzle involves a colder than usual atmospheric setup which allows tropical systems to form with lower SSTs than usual by increasing instability, but what's giving rise to that atmospheric pattern, and is there anything else going on teleconnection-wise which would explain some of the unusual activity this year?
MJO and AMO. This year isn't that anomalous compared to some years, given that we have been in a positive AMO since the mid-'90s. The stats for the season show 17 named systems (average 11), but otherwise the numbers are broadly in line with the 1981-2010 climatology. ACE is above average, due to Dorian.
Stats so far (climatology in brackets)
Named systems: 17 (11.2)
Names storm days: 62.5 (54.2)
Hurricanes: 6 (5.8)
Hurricane days: 23.25 (22.5)
Major hurricanes: 3 (2.6)
Major hurricane days: 10.0 (6.0)
ACE: 123.9 (98.1)
The season started off very quiet, with nothing really happening until the last week in August, when Dorian formed. The MJO at this time was intense and in Phase 1, which enhanced activity in the western Atlantic and brought about a very active 6 weeks, with activity centred more eastwards into October as the MJO moved towards Phase 2 and 3.
The past couple of weeks has seen a few small systems of non-tropical origins (Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo and Rebekah), with the last two not tropical at all and so small that without satellites they would have gone undetected. They were really more akin to medicanes or even polar lows in how they formed and their appearance on satellite. How many of these have occured in the pre-satellite era and gone undetected, I wonder.
THe MJO is now strong again and in the Indian Ocean, which is why we've had Kyarr and now Maha.
The problem I have is the idiotic reporting in mainstream media. With Lorenzo we had George Lee, but not only him. Equally inept reports, such as the one about the Canary Island turtle that was "washed up on a Galway beach by hurricane Lorenzo" days before the then extratropical depression Lorenzo actually arrived. At the time it washed up the storm was still thousands of kms away, well south of the Azores, yet it the poor turtle was somehow teletransported here. Another one (I think on Mooney Goes Wild), spoke of some migrating geese that arrived here after being blown off their Iceland to Canada course by Lorenzo, again when Lorenzo was well south. I mean, how do these idiots get away with that? This same RTE will be running a climate week in a couple of weeks, so who knows what nonsense will be spouted without any discussion on things like AMO, etc., which is known to have the largest effect on hurricane activity, European temperatures, etc.
Only yesterday I see a BBC report of Kyarr affecting the "western coast" of Oman. Firstly, Oman doesn't have a west coast, secondly, it was off its southeast coast, and thirdly, it was 250-300 km offshore (see below. The red radius is 34-knot winds, well away from the coast). Now there are reports of how strange it is to see two systems in the Indian Ocean, which will no doubt be fully attributed to climate change and not a mention of the MJO and the current positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
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