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05-04-2020, 17:15   #61
Ozark707
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A general downward push on rents may be counteracted by a further reduction in supply if LLs sell off investment properties.
Even if they do it is unlikely to massively change the supply/demand dynamic...if the place for sale ends up being bought as an investment then no net change, if it purchased by someone who was renting then it is one less place to rent but also one less person looking to rent.
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05-04-2020, 17:20   #62
AlmightyCushion
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https://www.hospitalityireland.com/h...eptember-94385

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McCann said that he believes that 2020 is the year to "make you survive", 2021 will be about beginning to "build back the business" and 2022 will likely be the year when "some levels of normality" are regained "in terms of visitor traffic and numbers".
The CEO of Dalata Hotel Group said that he expected it would be 2022 before some levels of normality come back. If that is the case then you would imagine it would be the same for short term lets over the next 2 years as well.
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05-04-2020, 17:22   #63
Dav010
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I suspect many AirBnB hosts are the same.

I'd guess many of those haven't cancelled yet as the extenuating circumstances cancellation policy only applies to stays up to May 31st (for now).

I don't envy any hosts dependant on a handful of bookings 6 months from now, most couldn't survive as evidenced by the sudden rush back to long-term rentals.
Horses for courses. We’ll know in 6 months.

Last edited by Dav010; 05-04-2020 at 17:26.
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05-04-2020, 17:24   #64
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Even if they do it is unlikely to massively change the supply/demand dynamic...if the place for sale ends up being bought as an investment then no net change, if it purchased by someone who was renting then it is one less place to rent but also one less person looking to rent.
Do you think there are a lot of investors buying one off properties for rental?
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05-04-2020, 17:45   #65
Ozark707
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Do you think there are a lot of investors buying one off properties for rental?
If an avalanche of them come on the market then the sale price will plummet thereby making them more attractive to one off investors (even though rents are dropping).

I doubt anyone will buy to leave them empty so wherever they ultimately end up will not massively change the dynamic.
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05-04-2020, 17:49   #66
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If I owned an airbnb/STL property I would 100% be looking to get tenants in on a 12 month contract right now. The tourist market might bounce back somewhat by August this year. But its likely to be destroyed again in October/November for 6 months when Corona comes back for the winter. You're looking at at most 2~ months of probably nowhere near normal summer occupancy, and then possibly nothing else until April/May 2021.

At least with tenants on a 12 month contract theres guaranteed income coming in every month. And the property would free up again just in time for summer 2021, if the tourism market is swinging back to normal by then.
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05-04-2020, 17:53   #67
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.
At least with tenants on a 12 month contract theres guaranteed income coming in every month. And the property would free up again just in time for summer 2021, if the tourism market is swinging back to normal by then.
Nope. The property would not be free as the tenants would have Part IV rights entitling them to live there for 5 more years with limited termination options.
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05-04-2020, 17:56   #68
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If an avalanche of them come on the market then the sale price will plummet thereby making them more attractive to one off investors (even though rents are dropping).

I doubt anyone will buy to leave them empty so wherever they ultimately end up will not massively change the dynamic.
That’s a lot of assumptions.

You understand, that at a time when rents were at a historic high, lots of LLs were selling?
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05-04-2020, 17:58   #69
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Nope. The property would not be free as the tenants would have Part IV rights entitling them to live there for 5 more years with limited termination options.
absent many realistic or palatable alternatives, I suspect that's the most likely scenario for most previous STL properties.
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05-04-2020, 17:59   #70
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If I owned an airbnb/STL property I would 100% be looking to get tenants in on a 12 month contract right now. The tourist market might bounce back somewhat by August this year. But its likely to be destroyed again in October/November for 6 months when Corona comes back for the winter. You're looking at at most 2~ months of probably nowhere near normal summer occupancy, and then possibly nothing else until April/May 2021.

At least with tenants on a 12 month contract theres guaranteed income coming in every month. And the property would free up again just in time for summer 2021, if the tourism market is swinging back to normal by then.
Free up again in time for the summer? Do you know how difficult it could be to get your property back for the summer market?
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05-04-2020, 18:00   #71
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You understand, that at a time when rents were at a historic high, lots of LLs were selling?
Property prices were also doing well which made that decision easier at the time.
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05-04-2020, 18:04   #72
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Free up again in time for the summer? Do you know how difficult it could be to get your property back for the summer market?
Rather less difficult than trying to maintain any sort of tourist occupancy rates for the next 12 months I'd imagine.

My family has rented out properties where I told any prospective incoming tenants the property would be changing use in 12/18/X months, and I would be expecting them to leave then. The tenants in every case were thankful for the advanced notice, planned around it because they had plenty of time to, and moved out on the forewarned date no problem.

The vast majority of tenants are reasonable adults, if you treat them that way they'll treat you the same.
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05-04-2020, 18:10   #73
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I have an Airbnb house that I am just going to wait it out with, and put it up on Airbnb again when things open again later in the year. If rents are falling, the benefits of Airbnb will be even more obvious.
There won't be any airbnb market this year, maybe towards the end if next year.
Travel & holidays will be very different for the next 18 months at least.
Good for you if you can leave it empty
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05-04-2020, 18:30   #74
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Rather less difficult than trying to maintain any sort of tourist occupancy rates for the next 12 months I’d imagine.
Evicting a tenant can take up to a year, and you can only terminate a Part 4 tenancy under certain circumstances. So you would be wrong, I would prefer a property to be empty than spend a year and thousands of Euro evicting a tenant. I would suspect there is a heightened risk of rents not being paid at the moment, and we are going to have to see what way payment of the rolled up rents during the freeze work out, so evictions could go up in the latter half of the year.

Last edited by Dav010; 05-04-2020 at 18:35.
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05-04-2020, 18:35   #75
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surely if we only allow 4% increases we should be only allowing 4% reductions.

or are laws only ok when landlords get shafted ?
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