November 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 27-10-2014 11:52am #1

1. Predict the IMT for November, the 1981-2010 average was 7.3 C (up from 7.0 in 1971-2000 and 6.6 in 1961-1990).

2. Predict the maximum temperature for November at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for November at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for however many (seems to be holding at six) met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus questions (two parts)

6-1 > Predict the date of the first snow report on official met.ie stations, the usual false automated reports will be discarded, we'll look for some kind of verification to declare the first snowfall (on the hourly reports). no member reports, peaks covered with snow, pictures from Lapland, etc. As explained in the form, the date must be in the range 1 Nov to 31 Dec, yes all of Dec in play, bonus will be settled when the snow happens. But if no snow at all by end of 2014 is your call, predict 31 Dec. In this case, question 6-2 will not count for any points, otherwise, both questions are worth 5 apiece.

6-2 > Predict the wind direction associated with that first snowfall (at the relevant location and hour). Your choices are ninefold, namely S, SW, W, NW, N, NE, E, SE or calm. These are the wind directions we see on hourly reports. If somebody gives a more precise direction such as NNE, it will be rotated clockwise so that one would be NE.

Be so kind as to do all of this at the form provided here or if necessary in this thread:

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1BC4I-Ls3Bz5iGhJMzMpQb61miqw8Pmxj_4fPB5SRLAI/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ

and by the usual deadline which this time around will be 0300h Sunday 2 Nov, with 5 pt penalties each half day thereafter.

Good luck.

Rikand · 28-10-2014 1:56am

Are there a list of stations by elevation above sea level?

M.T. Cranium · 28-10-2014 3:11pm

Not sure, probably none are high enough

We have some possible issues with the form, could some reader just go through the motions of posting a forecast and tell me if you can see your forecast as well as mine just submitted? You can change it later if you don't want to enter it, or just enter with a non-contest name and put in random numbers. I can see the form and so can my partner in crime but we are admins, you should be able to see it (by clicking on a link in the form that you see before entering and also by following a link after entering). Thanks

omicron · 28-10-2014 6:44pm

Rikand wrote: »

Are there a list of stations by elevation above sea level?

Knock Airport is prob the highest at 203m.

pauldry · 28-10-2014 11:26pm

done as away next week

Bsal · 29-10-2014 1:55am

Done.

lostinashford · 29-10-2014 9:19pm

Done

pauldry · 30-10-2014 12:43am

can i change my snow prediction to Nov 5

next week looks bitter

M.T. Cranium · 30-10-2014 8:04am

yes, anyone can change any details of their forecasts either by noting it here or entering again. I only count the latest (on time) forecasts and if somebody wanted to change with a time penalty we said once upon a time that would be okay except that the penalty would then apply to the entire forecast.

Could somebody confirm that they are able to see all the entries made so far and not just their own? thanks. (I can but you should be able to do so as well).

omicron · 30-10-2014 10:07am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

yes, anyone can change any details of their forecasts either by noting it here or entering again. I only count the latest (on time) forecasts and if somebody wanted to change with a time penalty we said once upon a time that would be okay except that the penalty would then apply to the entire forecast.

Could somebody confirm that they are able to see all the entries made so far and not just their own? thanks. (I can but you should be able to do so as well).

Yeah they're all visible.

pauldry · 30-10-2014 2:26pm

omicron wrote: »

Yeah they're all visible.

Doesnt look as cold now next week more like 7 to 10 than 5 to 8c but ill leave mine at nov 5

dasa29 · 31-10-2014 3:38am

Done, just checked I put down 19 for the bonus question did not think to put a month so I mean 19 nov if you can change it.

omicron · 31-10-2014 9:19pm

Done.

Joe Public · 31-10-2014 11:22pm

Done

delw · 31-10-2014 11:36pm

done

Harps · 01-11-2014 12:15am

Done

Rikand · 01-11-2014 5:21am

Done

John mac · 01-11-2014 10:57am

Done

dacogawa · 01-11-2014 2:17pm

Done

Fr_Dougal · 01-11-2014 5:24pm

Done

Tae laidir · 01-11-2014 5:43pm

Done

okla · 01-11-2014 10:02pm

Done

rameire · 01-11-2014 10:47pm

Done

mickger844posts · 01-11-2014 10:59pm

done

M.T. Cranium · 03-11-2014 6:16am

Table of entries for November 2014

FORECASTER _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ first snow

pauldry __________________ 8.0__16.9__-5.8__100__102___5 Nov__ N
waterways ________________7.8__16.7__-4.0__123__077__16 Nov__ E
Bsal _____________________7.8__16.5__-3.7__109__099__21 Dec__NE
omicron __________________7.7__16.0__-3.0__095__105___8 Dec__ N
Harps ____________________7.6__16.9__-3.4__140__090___6 Dec__NW
DOCARCH ______ (-20) _____ 7.5__18.1__-2.8__110__097__26 Nov__NW
Rikand ___________________ 7.5__17.0__-4.0__110__101__22 Nov__NW
kindred spirit ____ (-20) _____7.5__16.6__-3.5__120__090__28 Dec__NE
Okla _____________________ 7.5__16.4__-2.8__110__091___5 Dec__ N
Tae laidir _________________ 7.5__15.8__-3.5__135__095__13 Dec__NW
dasa29 ___________________7.4__18.0__-3.0__095__110__19 Nov__NE
rameire __________________ 7.4__15.3__-3.1__103__096__31 Dec__NE

Consensus ________________ 7.4__16.0__-3.4__106__095__ 1 Dec__NE

200motels ________________7.4__14.5__-2.9__116__070___4 Nov__ N
The Zohan ________________7.2__17.0__-3.1__090__085__26 Nov__NE
lostinashford ______________ 7.1__16.7__-4.6__090__090___5 Nov__NW
john mac _________________ 7.1__15.2__-2.4__107__100__28 Nov__ N
jd ____ (-10) ______________7.0__16.9__-3.1__092__ 111___4 Dec__NE
joepublic _________________ 6.9__15.9__-3.9__110__090__21 Nov__NW
M.T. Cranium _____________ 6.9__15.5__-5.0__100__100___5 Nov__NW
sunflower3 ________________6.9__15.4__-5.8__092__089___5 Dec__NE
Dacogawa ________________ 6.8__15.7__-3.2__120__095__24 Nov__NE
Jpmarn ___________________6.7__16.8__-3.8__125__095__28 Nov__NE
mickger844posts ___________ 6.5__14.8__-2.3__118__095__10 Dec__NE
delw _____________________ 4.5__14.0__-1.0__110__095__10 Dec__NE

_____________________________________________

Consensus may change if we get further entries, currently at 15 pts late penalty, going to 20 pts at 1500h and 25 pts at 0300h Tuesday 4th.

kindredspirit · 03-11-2014 9:00pm

Forgot this in November. Tried a couple of times at the end of October but boards.ie is so slow that I gave up each time waiting for it to load. This site and also Photobucket are PAINFUL. Every other site I use is fine. Tonight, though, it took only 15 minutes to load.

DOCARCH · 03-11-2014 10:40pm

Done...a tad late!

Joe Public · 04-11-2014 12:39am

kindredspirit wrote: »

Forgot this in November. Tried a couple of times at the end of October but boards.ie is so slow that I gave up each time waiting for it to load. This site and also Photobucket are PAINFUL. Every other site I use is fine. Tonight, though, it took only 15 minutes to load.

Works fine for me.

M.T. Cranium · 08-11-2014 6:47pm

After seven days ...

IMT was 8.4 C

PRC at 196% of normal

SUN at 116% of normal

MAX 15.4 (Phoenix Park 6th)

MIN -1.1 (Markree 5th)

no snow bonus yet

M.T. Cranium · 18-11-2014 4:32am

Well then, I forgot the end of week two but this is where we stand after a bit of extra calculation ...

IMT on 8.1 C

PRC about 220% of normal

SUN continues to exceed normal also, probably close to 115% as before

I have not noticed any new extremes and no snow in the bonus department yet.

Rikand · 19-11-2014 4:45pm

I think I'm starting to hope we get no snow at all for 2014

November 2014 Boards forecast contest

Comments