Who thinks Trump will win?

WrenBoy · 01-09-2020 5:40pm

It'll all come down to whoever gets the cats votes.
https://apnews.com/fbcec393dc652a9ccdb2cc8aacb15895

Melanchthon · 01-09-2020 5:41pm

Donald Trump wrote: »

"I love the poorly educated"

This

Dear Sub-Human Filth,

I'm appealing to all of you stupid idiots to vote Democrat in 2020. That is if you have the basic education enough to read a ballot, anyway. I understand the majority of you racist rednecks can't even read this post, though. But those who can, please pass my message on to the rest of your inbred family.

We Democrats are morally, culturally and intellectually superior to you in every way. I will qualify myself by noting that I have a Liberal Arts degree from a college, which you obviously have never been to, if you even know what one is. I also have a black friend. I have been told by several professors that everything you hold dear is terrible. Therefore you, personally, are also terrible.

I don't know you, but I know that you're racist. I also know that you hate gay people and still get scared during lightning storms. The religion which you hold closely, greatly believe in, and which brings you comfort--you are wrong because I'm smarter than you and I'm telling you so. It is one of the many reasons why you are stupid and I'm better than you.

You see, us Democrats want a system which helps everyone in the world. Our system is designed around love and kindness to everyone. If you don't agree, I hate you.

It's not too late to change. If you knew your history, which of course you don't, you'll remember a time in America when Indians were dragged away from their homes and forced to assimilate into white society. Well, we want to change that kind of behaviour (sorry for my spelling, as I'm not from your country) by making sure you go to college and have a small apartment in a big, busy coastal city, where you belong. That will help you rid yourselves of your backward, incorrect culture and way of thinking. We'll do everything we can to make sure you agree with us and say all the right things and not be brainwashed against thinking the same way we do.

All of you stupid, backward, redneck, racist, homophobic, uneducated yokels need to realize we're trying to build a classless society where we all get to live in harmony with each other, where we're all equal. If you only understood that you wouldn't be so much worse of a person than I am. So please vote Democrat. Help me help you, you worthless mother****ers.

Sincerely,

r/Politics

Mantis Toboggan · 01-09-2020 5:42pm

Biden is a terrible candidate, Trump would buy and sell him in a second.

Hande hoche! · 01-09-2020 5:44pm

Could see it going either way, it's going to be very close. The urban unrest is definitely having an effect.
Imagine how the Covid 19 rates and deaths play out with have an impact. Feel less likely for Biden to take it than I did a month ago.

BattleCorp · 01-09-2020 5:46pm

I wouldn't believe the polls either.

I reckon Trump has a lot of voters who secretly vote for him but wouldn't admit to it openly.

The Raging Bile Duct · 01-09-2020 5:46pm

Melanchthon wrote: »

This

Dear Sub-Human Filth,

I'm appealing to all of you stupid idiots to vote Democrat in 2020. That is if you have the basic education enough to read a ballot, anyway. I understand the majority of you racist rednecks can't even read this post, though. But those who can, please pass my message on to the rest of your inbred family.

We Democrats are morally, culturally and intellectually superior to you in every way. I will qualify myself by noting that I have a Liberal Arts degree from a college, which you obviously have never been to, if you even know what one is. I also have a black friend. I have been told by several professors that everything you hold dear is terrible. Therefore you, personally, are also terrible.

I don't know you, but I know that you're racist. I also know that you hate gay people and still get scared during lightning storms. The religion which you hold closely, greatly believe in, and which brings you comfort--you are wrong because I'm smarter than you and I'm telling you so. It is one of the many reasons why you are stupid and I'm better than you.

You see, us Democrats want a system which helps everyone in the world. Our system is designed around love and kindness to everyone. If you don't agree, I hate you.

It's not too late to change. If you knew your history, which of course you don't, you'll remember a time in America when Indians were dragged away from their homes and forced to assimilate into white society. Well, we want to change that kind of behaviour (sorry for my spelling, as I'm not from your country) by making sure you go to college and have a small apartment in a big, busy coastal city, where you belong. That will help you rid yourselves of your backward, incorrect culture and way of thinking. We'll do everything we can to make sure you agree with us and say all the right things and not be brainwashed against thinking the same way we do.

All of you stupid, backward, redneck, racist, homophobic, uneducated yokels need to realize we're trying to build a classless society where we all get to live in harmony with each other, where we're all equal. If you only understood that you wouldn't be so much worse of a person than I am. So please vote Democrat. Help me help you, you worthless mother****ers.

Sincerely,

r/Politics

Christ almighty, it's this type of scutter that makes my eyes roll back so far that I start looking like yer wan from the Exorcist.

Melanchthon · 01-09-2020 6:16pm

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

Christ almighty, it's this type of scutter that makes my eyes roll back so far that I start looking like yer wan from the Exorcist.

Unlike high quality, thoughtfully considered, intellectual arguments posted like this :pac:

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

Because Americans are fúcking idiots?

:rolleyes:

Seriously though the internet is important to politics now, meme's and copypasta etc had an impact in the 2016 election, and perceived elitism by Democratic commentators and supporters had an even bigger influence.

Errashareesh · 01-09-2020 6:22pm

I'm certain that he will.

It'll be tight I think but I can't see him not winning. Things are too complex over there for it to be a case of "he messed up so he'll lose". It really isn't that simple.

Beechwoodspark · 01-09-2020 6:23pm

I keep seeing polls etc saying Biden has a huge lead over trump etc etc

I think a lot will depend on the debates.

Biden to me is an elderly nice old man whereas trump is like an attack dog, he lives for confrontation.

So that won’t be pretty.

I’d worry that this so called Biden lead will be whittled away.

Had the Dems gone for someone in their 40s/50s or even 60s I feel trump could’ve been destroyed but Biden....ffs he’s bet down only fit for the nursing home.

Also Russia will be working hard to get trump for another 4 years.

I hope I’m wrong as I’m sick to the teeth of trump and his corrupt family

Rockbeast2 · 01-09-2020 6:25pm

Trump will win. No doubt.

Only pity is I can't back him at 125/1 as I did last time.

drunkmonkey · 01-09-2020 6:41pm

Rockbeast2 wrote: »

Trump will win. No doubt.

Only pity is I can't back him at 125/1 as I did last time.

Thinking of going in now he's only going to storm ahead in the betting, looking at 2 nights half price in doonbeg on January 20th:)

BattleCorp · 01-09-2020 6:44pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Biden to me is an elderly nice old man whereas trump is like an attack dog, he lives for confrontation.

Ha ha. Nice old man. Good old Creepy Joe with his habit of sniffing women and kids. Just google Biden sniffing children. He's certainly odd.

Pa ElGrande · 01-09-2020 6:54pm

2016 Vs. 2012: How Trump's Win And Clinton's Votes Stack Up To Romney And Obama

This election has been rife with paradoxes, chief among them the discrepancy between the popular vote, which Hillary Clinton won by 2.8 million votes, and the electoral college, where Trump won 304-227. Despite the seeming magnitude of the latter, Cook Political Report has shown that just three counties, representing 77,759 voters in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, determined the outcome of the election.

source

Michael Moore at it again.

https://twitter.com/MMFlint/status/1299309425379901440

Ever heard of the Iron range?, me neither but Iron Range mayors pitch Trump with Pence.

Afterward, Doty explained he was a Democratic-Farmer-Labor office-holder in the state Legislature in the 1970s, but held a series of nonpartisan offices after that. He’s always prided himself on being independent, he said.

“I come from a DFL family and many of them still are,” Doty said. “My dad was the head of the Teamsters and the things he fought for — jobs, benefits and working men and women — the Democratic party has lost that. They’ve gone so far left I can’t support the Democratic ticket this year.”

Pence didn’t have to work hard to win the red, white and blue crowd, including Pat Hanson, 72, of Duluth, who wore red to match Pence’s tie.

“It was wonderful,” she said. “Especially the support he received from the Iron Range mayors. I think Minnesota may very well go red.”

source

In my opinion Trump has held his base, the identity politics pursued by the Democrats does not play well with the working and middle class voters in the United States. The DNC is split 3 ways (more if you count all the factions under their big tent) between various Clinton, Obama and Sanders factions. Clinton made a last attempt with Michael Bloomberg and that failed, Biden is Obamas man and used to keep the socialist wing of the party led by Sanders in check. I see a split in the future Democrat party after the election as the infighting over the loss gets bitter and they diverge towards the extreme left and middle of the road. I don't know why the Democrats are getting all worked up about postal votes (see CBRE), hardly any voters under 30 use the mail system, will they use it for the first time to vote for an old guy? and the older voters lean more towards the Republicans.
And it feels like the agitation driven by the riots coverage is forcing changes in Bidens campaign as internal polling shows the inaction by Democrat mayors in cities that have riots is losing Biden votes and he has been forced to speak up.

Some other tell tale signs of the general population is reacting:

1. Gun sales. So high that ammunition is in short supply and there are shortages of trainers as women buy guns. Social media does not just present a keyhole view of events like George Floyd, but it also shows little old ladies getting mugged by young thugs from the same racial background as Mr. Floyd and further amplifies the populations fears. Few are going to vote for a candidate whose party is seen to endorce "defund the police"

2. Internal movement of the population between states and from major cities that have higher taxes and regulations to lower cost states. It is essentially a tax revolt and it leaves behind the welfare class who are more limited in their options. Another aspect has been the migration of people with mental health issues and drug problems to states like California, Oregon and Colorado, the tent cities are a visible reminder in those states of serious underlying problems. There are a lot of problems that have been building for many years that have yet to be addressed, many of which are state level rather than federal level.

Brussels Sprout · 01-09-2020 7:01pm

Interesting to see the results of the poll so far. I think what happened in 2016 is having an outsize influence on people's opinions of what will happen in November.
People who dislike Trump remember the shock of 4 years ago and are resigned to it happening again, while people who like him think that he's a special case where the normal rules of political gravity do not apply.

Yes Biden is not a very inspiring candidate but he doesn't have to be. His unfavourable numbers are a lot better than Clinton's and at the end of the day I believe that will be enough to swing it for him barring some dirty tactics on a historic scale.

Melanchthon · 01-09-2020 7:09pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Interesting to see the results of the poll so far. I think what happened in 2016 is having an outsize influence on people's opinions of what will happen in November.
People who dislike Trump remember the shock of 4 years ago and are resigned to it happening again, while people who like him think that he's a special case where the normal rules of political gravity do not apply.

Yes Biden is not a very inspiring candidate but he doesn't have to be. His unfavourable numbers are a lot better than Clinton's and at the end of the day I believe that will be enough to swing it for him barring some dirty tactics on a historic scale.

Two or three months ago being certain that way made sense. Biden was selected presumably because at least in part he is a safe pair of hands in terms of not scaring of the voters needed in the swing states, he's been tough on crime, he's not radical, he's a white man, he's associated with Obama who was pretty popular across a lot of groups.
If the disorder continues it starts eating into those advantages though, it also keeps Covid out of the news cycle and thats good for Trump since he's at a minimum partially responsible for how badly america is dealing with it, supporting large protests and rallies also robs the Democrats of the ability to criticize Trumps attitudes to the virus.

Sarcozies · 01-09-2020 7:13pm

Two poor choices yet again for the American public. The country can produce the absolute best in many fields, people that change the world for the better yet it seems the presidency scares off these people.

Can see it going either way depending on the turnout.

Eric Cartman · 01-09-2020 7:19pm

mcsean2163 wrote: »

These democrats would beat Trump.

1. Any klobuchar- insulin for all
2. Tulsi Gabbard - unity
3. Bernie Sanders - fairness

Biden/ Kamala is a CNAS/ Clinton pick. It's a truly awful pick by the democrat party leaders. They cleared the way for Biden by asking buttigieg and klobuchar to step down so votes go to Biden and left Warren in to leech away liberal votes from Bernie.

To top it all, recent Belgium study shows hydroxychloroquinine reduces covid19 mortality by 30%. Dems excoriated Trump for promoting a drug which as it turns out if given in the correct dosage is hugely beneficial for covid19 patients. That story will run and run.

The worst thing is, both candidates are awful. What a world...

(Not a Trump fan in case anyone confused)

Tulsi and vernie couldnt win a US election, youre looking at this with euro eyes, too left for the US , Amys not much better than biden

c.p.w.g.w · 01-09-2020 7:32pm

Speaking as a left leaning person...I cannot believe how it's acceptable for folks on the left to suggest violence towards a sitting president...

All they are doing to making any unrest worst...take the high road, not stoop to a level that's apparently below you...

I do think Trump wins again, for his 2nd term

RandomViewer · 01-09-2020 7:38pm

Trump, Biden comes accross very poorly, Purge looking more like a documentary as each day goes by

JJayoo · 01-09-2020 7:43pm

Has a good chance, strange fact is that a very large % of black people don't vote.

I hope Biden wins so that maybe people will.shut up bitching about Trump, so fcuking annoying

Gruffalux · 01-09-2020 7:44pm

The Dems have been absolute lunatic knuts since they lost. Tyrannically anti-democratic in their inability to accept the result. Quite disturbing. I do not know who will win. They all look like parodies.

brentanrodgers · 01-09-2020 7:46pm

Sarcozies wrote: »

Two poor choices yet again for the American public. The country can produce the absolute best in many fields, people that change the world for the better yet it seems the presidency scares off these people.

Can see it going either way depending on the turnout.

The Presidency must scare people off for sure, any little secrets of your life will be unearthed and the pressure is surely immense. I also think the political class protect their own and don't want outsiders in - the media, the special interests, the donors etc. I think we seen evidence of that happening in 2016 with Bernie Sanders.

01-09-2020 7:48pm

Deffo Trump. White middle class America is “scared” - violence and unrest on the streets of America is nearly as good as a war for a Republican president to get re-elected. Also I don’t think the African American vote will poll high - they’ll stay away on the day as Biden is uninspiring to them.

mcmoustache · 01-09-2020 7:49pm

It's hard to say. He has a fairly good chance this time around too.

US politics is very tribal and Trump has about 30-40 percent of the population who'll vote for him no matter what.

Biden is old and boring but there's 40odd percent of the US population that want Trump out.

Then, there's various dirty tricks that'll come into play.

Anyone saying Trump will win by a landslide or Biden will win by a landslide is oversimplifying things.

bmc58 · 01-09-2020 7:50pm

whiskeyman wrote: »

Hope the mods don't mind a new thread, but I just want to see how many of us think Trump will beat Biden in Nov?
I think he just has so much of a populist ground swell and I wouldn't be surprised if 'external' participants get involved in the process.

Do you think he'll get reelected?
Where will that leave America?

He'll get in.The Rednecks will see to that.God help us all then.Four more years with Trump will probably lead to global cahos.

brentanrodgers · 01-09-2020 7:56pm

bmc58 wrote: »

He'll get in.The Rednecks will see to that.God help us all then.Four more years with Trump will probably lead to global cahos.

Been hearing that since the day of his election. I think he messed up the Covid response badly, that's the major stain on him going into the election. It's a valid complaint unlike the tribal cries of "The Russians are coming, The Russians are coming".

BobbyMalone · 01-09-2020 7:58pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Deffo Trump. White middle class America is “scared” - violence and unrest on the streets of America is nearly as good as a war for a Republican president to get re-elected. Also I don’t think the African American vote will poll high - they’ll stay away on the day as Biden is uninspiring to them.

It's an interesting paradox that people will vote for Trump as the 'law-and-order' candidate, but forget that he's been in power for the last three plus years and there's all this unrest.

Pawwed Rig · 01-09-2020 8:08pm

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

Pelosi says he shouldn't. She didn't say he won't. Biden responded straight away on MSNBC that he was going to debate him.

I accept that but that is what kite flying is

rtron · 01-09-2020 8:11pm

With Kanye West out of the race It's all Trump's now.

Wanderer78 · 01-09-2020 8:15pm

No I don't, but I think it could be close enough, then he ll go extra weird, when he refuses to leave the white house

Who thinks Trump will win?

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