European Parliament Elections 2019

Kingdom wrote: »

I don't post (ever) on politics forums, so please go easy on me, I've read a few of the pages back and most of you seen very clued in. I'm an amateur politics fan, so have a big interest in electoral results, and also with predictions. In light of the latter, I've got to say I'm astounded at some of the "polling". It would be important to point out that I've no ties to any political party, or to a politician.
Dublin would be my constituency this time around, whereas previously it would have been Midlands-North-West.

In Dublin, in my opinion there isn't a hope of Lynn Boylan not being elected. The Shinners have canvassed hard, and there support base in Dublin is huge. That the polls would have Barry Andrews - no offence to him- at such at a high percentage compared to Lynn Boylan immediately makes me sceptical. Bar the two bays, there isn't an area of Dublin where Fianna Fail would outvote SF. And the Shinners have been excellent in getting people to turn out to the polls.

Everyone knows Francis Fitz will do well. She's the biggest name on the ballot paper.

She is corrupted to the core MMC and her recent doggy thing.. Yet alone her overphotoshopped posters

Deirdre Clune will be disappointed, a wall of money in posturing and that is all she scores

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

CIE have suspended all advertising for political parties, just as a bus with Irexit branding was about to enter service and days after ACI banners for Gemma O D

Really dislike their politics. But changing the rules midway through the campaign is taking a position in the campaign. Everyone has a right to run and be judged, and media and campaign plans for spending are set in advance. A company bowing to pressure after the campaign period has launched and deciding to stop certain types of advertising (happened with Google I believe also during the abortion ref) is by its very nature going to then have an impact on the visibility of campaigns that could have spent their money elsewhere. Democracy is like justice, it only works properly when even the most vile types get a fair trial.

I agree. It's time political advertising was seriously curtailed. If people want to be informed they should go to the websites of the various parties themselves and read their manifestos before voting. Buzzword one line posters are a joke, regardless of the party or cause. A list of all candidates websites could be listed on a central website. It's just too easy to sway people with utter garbage these days.

murphaph wrote: »

I agree. It's time political advertising was seriously curtailed. If people want to be informed they should go to the websites of the various parties themselves and read their manifestos before voting. Buzzword one line posters are a joke, regardless of the party or cause. A list of all candidates websites could be listed on a central website. It's just too easy to sway people with utter garbage these days.

I actually agree. But doing it with a week left in the campaign on particular platforms is not the right way to do it.

c_murph wrote: »

The lads at the @IrexitP twitter have done some digging on these questions.
It's at least as bad as you'd imagine.

https://medium.com/@irexitparody/british-far-right-extremism-manipulating-ireland-1e863cea0267

Fascinating. I wonder does Carole Cadwalladr know about this too. They are not even very good at covering their tracks. No real Irish person would ever use that logo on the Munitir na hEireann website.

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

CIE have suspended all advertising for political parties, just as a bus with Irexit branding was about to enter service and days after ACI banners for Gemma O D

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/cie-bars-political-advertising-on-trains-and-buses-05ndzqjnz

https://twitter.com/IrexitFreedom/status/1130074725043118080

Differently some meddling going on, Irexit registering as a party was held up as well. It will backfire and everybody knows the advertising on the bus would really help the vote given the narrative.

Meanwhile a Red Sea Poll has thrown up some interesting data.

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1130071580091015168

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1130065565580693504

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1130065562791342080

Interesting polls that should lead to an interesting election count.

Midlands North-West: 4 seats: Quota 20%

McGuinness on 27 will be elected first count with a surplus. Said surplus will then be distributed. If half goes to Walsh, she is neck-and neck with Carthy after second count.

There are 5 candidates - Carthy, Walsh, Flanagan, Casey, Smith - probably in that order after the second count - for the three seats. While Smith is behind, he has the advantage of a running mate. This will be interesting.

Dublin: 4 seats: Quota 20%

Fitzgerald will get in, but there aren't enough FG votes to elect Durkan as well. I think Cuffe will pick enough transfers to get in as well, with Boylan and Andrews favourite for the last. However, even a small swing to Daly from Boylan could see her get in as she is more transfer-friendly than SF.


South: 5 seats: Quota 16.6%

If FG had run 2 candidates, they would have got two seats. Kelly is certain, but second seat is at serious risk. FF seem to have their candidate split working and could take two seats. Ni Riada is close enough to the quota and won't miss out, even given SF's transfer toxicity. Last seat between Greens, Wallace and second FG.

blackwhite wrote: »

*cough* Clune *cough*

There are three FG candidates - Kelly, Clune and Doyle.

Kelly is way ahead of the other two, on the poll numbers, he will get in on the first count with little or no surplus. The other two are fairly even (6 and 7%) and behind others. They would need a very high transfer rate to get one of them elected. There would have been a much better chance if they had only run two.

Watching the eu debate now jaysus that Rita one is all soundbites, hasn't a notion what’s shes on about....

Tonight’s debate highlighting how poor the quality of candidate is in Dublin. Alice Mary Higgins probably coming off best so far, but none of them looking particularly good.

Thrashssacre wrote: »

Can’t see how the debate swayed anyone towards any candidate really... too many people on the stage and nobody really said anything

I’d say Higgins has won herself a few more transfers. Beyond that, they were all abismal

blanch152 wrote: »

There are three FG candidates - Kelly, Clune and Doyle.

Kelly is way ahead of the other two, on the poll numbers, he will get in on the first count with little or no surplus. The other two are fairly even (6 and 7%) and behind others. They would need a very high transfer rate to get one of them elected. There would have been a much better chance if they had only run two.

It would take Deirdre Clune, one of the only Fine Gael TDs to lose their Dáil seat in 2011, to lower her MEP seat thus time out. I think she should just about hang on to it, but it won't be as straight forward as hoped for FG and she'll be hoping Doyle is knocked out early.

blackwhite wrote: »

Tonight’s debate highlighting how poor the quality of candidate is in Dublin. Alice Mary Higgins probably coming off best so far, but none of them looking particularly good.

That's absurd...the debate was light years ahead of the South debate. It's never going to be a debate with 10 candidates but at least they had a chance to make soem points and engage a little.

The left candidates all performed well, Daly, Ryan, Higgins, Boylan, Harrold and Gannon all had excellent moments.

Casey will get elected, sadly - candidates playing into his hands by letting the debate revolve around him.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Casey will get elected, sadly - candidates playing into his hands by letting the debate revolve around him.

He is 2/1. It's frightening.