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01-10-2019, 23:49   #136
Dodge
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Big weekend of Olympic qualifying (hopefully)

At the Nations Cup final in Showjumping, it’s effectively a three team fight for the final spot between Ireland, Italy and Spain. It’s about 45/45/10 in terms of percentage chances

At the world gymnastics championships, we could qualify up to 3 athletes. Effectively there’s 12 all around spots open to gymnasts from teams who don’t qualify. In the women’s the cut off point is expected to be about 48 points and Emma Slevin averages above that at the moment. There’s little wiggle room but she should make it. Ireland has sent 3 girls ages 15-16-17

In the men’s the same route is open to all rounders. If the same criteria was applied last year then Adam Steele would have qualified. There’s more athletes this year but he has a shot if he performs well

Rhys McClenaghan may not even attempt to qualify in the all around. He fell twice last year at worlds and it soon came out that he was injured. Last month he fell in Paris too. If he doesn’t fall, he’s almost a lock to make the final in the pommel horse and that may be enough to qualify. The top 3 (non qualified) at pommel will book a ticket to Rio. Rhys will be looking to medal in Stuttgart and if he qualifies, he’s certainly a medal contender in Tokyo
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03-10-2019, 13:30   #137
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Big weekend of Olympic qualifying (hopefully)

At the Nations Cup final in Showjumping, it’s effectively a three team fight for the final spot between Ireland, Italy and Spain. It’s about 45/45/10 in terms of percentage chances
Round one on facebook live now.

I hope I'm wrong but think you are being generous with the 45% assessment there. They absolutely crumbled when the pressure came on in the Europeans and it will be 10 times greater here.

What we want today is for as many of the non qualified teams besides us not to make the top 8 today who go on to the final on Sunday.
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03-10-2019, 14:28   #138
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Round one on facebook live now.

I hope I'm wrong but think you are being generous with the 45% assessment there. They absolutely crumbled when the pressure came on in the Europeans and it will be 10 times greater here.

What we want today is for as many of the non qualified teams besides us not to make the top 8 today who go on to the final on Sunday.

Italy jump a clear in Round 1. Same old problem for Irelands, we just dont get enough clear rounds. Pressure on us already.
It could be all over this evening. Italy make final and we dont.
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03-10-2019, 14:51   #139
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After 2 rounds the standings among the non-qualified teams is

Italy 0 (0/8)
Columbia 0 (9/0)
Spain 4 (4/4)
Ireland 5 (5/5)
Norway 5 (17/5)
Egypt 9 (9/ret)
Portugal 13 (13/wd)
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03-10-2019, 15:20   #140
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After 2 rounds the standings among the non-qualified teams is

Italy 0 (0/8)
Columbia 0 (9/0)
Spain 4 (4/4)
Ireland 5 (5/5)
Norway 5 (17/5)
Egypt 9 (9/ret)
Portugal 13 (13/wd)

Main thing is to qualify for the Top 8 and final. So far that is looking beyond us.
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03-10-2019, 15:50   #141
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Looking a lot better after 3 rounds now. By my calculations Cian O’Connor can afford 2 time faults here and we cant be out of the top 8. Even if he has a disaster we cant be worse than 10 which would probably be good enough to make the final

Italy 4 (0/8/4)
Columbia 4 (9/0/4)
Ireland 5 (5/5/0)
Spain 8 (4/4/13)
Norway 15 (17/5/10)
Egypt 25 (9/ret/16)
Portugal ELIM (13/wd/wd)
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03-10-2019, 15:54   #142
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Looking at it again I think the worst we can be now is joint 8th – and that is if Netherlands, Spain and Japan all go clear. A single rail from any one of those and we are safe.

Not sure what the rule is on a jump off if there’s a tie for 8th.
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03-10-2019, 16:17   #143
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Japan 8 faults.

We live to fight another day!
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03-10-2019, 16:31   #144
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Well Cian had 9 so we did end up on a 10 fault total. But with Japan and also Spain dropping back we cant be worse than 7th.

On the Olympic qualification, Columbia are definitely in to the final with us but Italy aren't quite safe yet. Spain are not gone yet mathematically.

Pray for an Italian cricket score!
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03-10-2019, 16:47   #145
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Only Italy Germany and Belgium to jump and how they go has a big bearing on our position.

Spain are currently in 8th on 12 faults. If Germany go clear they will also be on 12 and it goes down to cumulative time, so that could push Spain down to 9th. Italy jump last. If they have a disaster they will be on 12 also and it could be them or Spain. What you want is for Germany to knock one of them out.

PS just as I'm typing that, the German has done it! Spain out (unless Italy fall behind them which would be even better for us)

Edit 9 faults for the Italian, their cumulative team time is quicker than Spain by less than half a second! Half a second slower and we wouldn't have had to face the Italians on Sunday. As it is the Olympic spot is now between us, them and the Columbians. Cant wait.

Last edited by Pierre de Coubertin; 03-10-2019 at 16:54.
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03-10-2019, 17:01   #146
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Only Italy Germany and Belgium to jump and how they go has a big bearing on our position.

Spain are currently in 8th on 12 faults. If Germany go clear they will also be on 12 and it goes down to cumulative time, so that could push Spain down to 9th. Italy jump last. If they have a disaster they will be on 12 also and it could be them or Spain. What you want is for Germany to knock one of them out.

PS just as I'm typing that, the German has done it! Spain out (unless Italy fall behind them which would be even better for us)

Edit 9 faults for the Italian, their cumulative team time is quicker than Spain by less than half a second! Half a second slower and we wouldn't have had to face the Italians on Sunday. As it is the Olympic spot is now between us, them and the Columbians. Cant wait.

Have to say the Columbians came out of left field. Hadnt counted them as a threat at all. All to play for though.

Are there 1 or two rounds on Sunday?
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03-10-2019, 17:08   #147
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Have to say the Columbians came out of left field. Hadnt counted them as a threat at all. All to play for though.

Are there 1 or two rounds on Sunday?
Wouldn't underestimate them at all for Sunday.

That was so tight, we were 1 rail from going home. The Italians survive by half a miserable second. A little bit sickened by that as it would have made our task so much easier.
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04-10-2019, 20:49   #148
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Qualifications for Irish female gymnasts at the world championships just finished.

This was Ireland's one real shot to qualify a female gymnast to the Olympics, and unfortunately it doesn't look like it's going to happen. Emma Slevin was on her way to a qualifying score until the last rotation, balance beam, where she uncharacteristically fell twice (had she hit, she would have safely qualified).

Really unfortunate, but Emma's just 16 and this was her first year competing as a senior and first time competing at a world championships (same for her two teammates, Kate Molloy and Meg Ryan). I know she struggles with confidence on beam moreso than the other events, and it was bad luck she got drawn to end on that event. The pressure must have been really high. All of the Irish girls fell on beam after strong performances on the first three events. Beam is a killer.

But they're all young and hopefully this will be good motivation for them to come back next quad with more experience under their belts!
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06-10-2019, 12:02   #149
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15.2 for Rhys McClenaghan on pommel today. That’ll easily be enough to qualify for the final. He went with 6.3 difficulty (lower than usual) and had a brilliant 8.9 on execution

Adam Steele did well in the all round but now he waits to see if it’s food enough for one of the last quotas (Edit: his score was 77.431 - anyone who scored 78 was expected to qualify. Fingers crossed)

Final for Rhys is next Saturday

Last edited by Dodge; 06-10-2019 at 12:25.
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06-10-2019, 15:48   #150
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The Show Jumpers have done it!

First team qualification since Athens.
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