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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • #242
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,636 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Very nice northerly shot on the 00z GFS this morning - Would be nice to get some proper winter weather even if only for a few days.

    gfs-1-210.png.e7be12238a8a9202619861aebbf64cea.png

    -12 air. Now that would be a northerly of old! I think you're right the last proper one was 2010. I don't recall having any since then during winter time.


  • #243
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    nacho libre wrote: »
    -12 air. Now that would be a northerly of old! I think you're right the last proper one was 2010. I don't recall having any since then during winter time.

    The beast from the east in 2018 was a returning northerly (like all cold we get it originates north).


  • #244
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,636 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    The beast from the east in 2018 was a returning northerly (like all cold we get it originates north).

    Yes, although i mean one with a direct feed that delivers to the north and north west, as oppose to a returning northerly, which means we miss out, there has not been one of those in a long time for us.


  • #245
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Its a pretty short lived affair even on the gfs and its not really on the ecm at all so its still a long shot even at only 9 days away


  • #246
    Kamili
    Registered Users Posts: 2,479 ✭✭✭Kamili


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    Its a pretty short lived affair even on the gfs and its not really on the ecm at all so its still a long shot even at only 9 days away

    Is GFS overcooking it again with its cold bias? I am left wondering if this will melt by the time we get to it especially if its not on the ECM at all...


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  • #247
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Kamili wrote: »
    Is GFS overcooking it again with its cold bias? I am left wondering if this will melt by the time we get to it especially if its not on the ECM at all...

    ECM is not far off it, though it does not get the cold to Ireland in the same way, wouldn't take much for an upgrade. The 6Z GFS is similar to the 0Z, it is showing a cold outbreak from the North/North East around Feb 5th, and sustaining it for a good few days, not sure about snowfall, certainly some along the east coast, but very low day-time minima would follow as pressure rises a little, with very hard frosts.


  • #248
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    As you say, its still there on the gfs 6z so decent consistency now from the gfs. In fact the 6z gfs shows a generally very cold first half of February


  • #249
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,636 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Kamili wrote: »
    Is GFS overcooking it again with its cold bias? I am left wondering if this will melt by the time we get to it especially if its not on the ECM at all...

    A short lived affair is better than nothing at all, as you say its nine days away, but its good we have seen a couple of runs suggesting it- just need that to continue and the ECM to come on board


  • #250
    NMB
    Registered Users Posts: 314 ✭✭NMB


    nacho libre wrote: »
    A short lived affair is better than nothing at all, as you say its nine days away, but its good we have seen a couple of runs suggesting it- just need that to continue and the ECM to come on board

    ECM and a nacho snow dance


  • #251
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,442 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    ECM is not that far away from evolving in to something better - just need some tweaks

    ECM1-192.GIF?28-12


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  • #252
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,636 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    NMB wrote: »
    ECM and a nacho snow dance

    If that's what it takes for our snow starved comrades in the east to see some snow, then i am happy to oblige :)


  • #253
    Kamili
    Registered Users Posts: 2,479 ✭✭✭Kamili


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    ECM is not that far away from evolving in to something better - just need some tweaks

    yes please!

    please-be-quiet-kermit-is-working.jpg


  • #254
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    high migrates over to Scandi, keeps the cold close to East coast

    gfs-1-258.png?12


  • #255
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Kamili wrote: »
    yes please!

    please-be-quiet-kermit-is-working.jpg

    We said to change the ECM as per the GFS, not the other way around.


  • #256
    jambofc
    Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭jambofc


    all i see is the UK being plastered with snow and we are just on the edge,hopefully things move a bit more in our favour


  • #257
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    12z GFS is cold again but not an upgrade. The downgrade is in its own ensembles though, where it stands as a real notable outlier. The 6z were better ensembles


  • #258
    roosterman71
    Registered Users Posts: 5,356 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    jambofc wrote: »
    all i see is the UK being plastered with snow and we are just on the edge,hopefully things move a bit more in our favour

    Yeah but this is FI, and the UK will be out of the EU by then so the cold will have a free run at us :D


  • #259
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    The beast from the east in 2018 was a returning northerly (like all cold we get it originates north).

    Bit of a stretch to call that one a northerly, came direct from Siberia!

    https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=22&month=2&hour=0&year=2018&map=4&region=&mode=2&type=ncep


  • #260
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    roosterman71 wrote: »
    Yeah but this is FI, and the UK will be out of the EU by then so the cold will have a free run at us :D

    Will there not be checks going over the Irish Sea though?


  • #261
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    the latest GFS runs see's a potent northerly but it's too far east for us here in Ireland to get anything proper from it, the UK looks of course set for a pasting, we would need this notherly to shift about 300km westwards to have any meaningful impact here, but it's still about 10 days away and alot can change in that time, the northerly could also end up several 100km further eastwards leaving Ireland and the UK high and dry. Certainly something to keep watching with every run, fingers crossed we get something out of this and finally deliver a taste of winter.


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  • #262
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    Bit of a stretch to call that one a northerly, came direct from Siberia!

    https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=22&month=2&hour=0&year=2018&map=4&region=&mode=2&type=ncep

    All of that air originated in a sub artic continental climate geographically North of Ireland


  • #263
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Gonzo wrote: »
    the latest GFS runs see's a potent northerly but it's too far east for us here in Ireland to get anything proper from it, the UK looks of course set for a pasting, we would need this notherly to shift about 300km westwards to have any meaningful impact here, but it's still about 10 days away and alot can change in that time, the northerly could also end up several 100km further eastwards leaving Ireland and the UK high and dry. Certainly something to keep watching with every run, fingers crossed we get something out of this and finally deliver a taste of winter.

    No northerly on the 18z output unfortunately. Typical


  • #264
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    KingdomRushed wrote: »
    No northerly on the 18z output unfortunately. Typical

    Unfortunately there is just too much power in the Atlantic to hold anything for our position. The charts really want to bring colder weather for February but the wrath of the Atlantic is just too much this year, so much so that most of Europe away from high ground has barely seen a flake this winter. I still think it might be possible to get something in the second half of February but we really need something to disrupt those relentless long fetch westerlies.


  • #265
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Unfortunately there is just too much power in the Atlantic to hold anything for our position. The charts really want to bring colder weather for February but the wrath of the Atlantic is just too much this year, so much so that most of Europe away from high ground has barely seen a flake this winter. I still think it might be possible to get something in the second half of February but we really need something to disrupt those relentless long fetch westerlies.

    Just need the jet to go for another early summer holiday down to the Azores. Maybe if we all chip for its hotel?


  • #266
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,636 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    So as per the ECM it looks like we are back to relying on brief north westerly incursions for some snow in the first week of February

    With the record strength of the pv, it was a bit of a long shot to hope for a potent northerly. When the pv naturally breaks down it could herald quite a cold spring for us!


  • #267
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    nacho libre wrote: »
    So as per the ECM it looks like we are back to relying on brief north westerly incursions for some snow in the first week of February

    With the record strength of the pv, it was a bit of a long shot to hope for a potent northerly. When the pv naturally breaks down it could herald quite a cold spring for us!

    I don't mind a cold start to spring as long as we're still not getting temperatures in the single digits during June like last year! I can just see the northern blocking forming again into April and holding for many weeks on end. Most of the long range models are pointing towards a continuation of mild and Atlantic driven weather throughout the Spring with maybe a few areas of high pressure moving up from the south at times.


  • #268
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭esposito


    Gonzo wrote: »
    . Most of the long range models are pointing towards a continuation of mild and Atlantic driven weather throughout the Spring with maybe a few areas of high pressure moving up from the south at times.

    That will almost certainly not be the case. We will more than likely get a cold Spring when the PV weakens and cold air spills out. The zonal winds will reverse and we will get our much sought after easterly. Those long range models won’t be right all the time.


  • #269
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,796 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    esposito wrote: »
    That will almost certainly not be the case. We will more than likely get a cold Spring when the PV weakens and cold air spills out. The zonal winds will reverse and we will get our much sought after easterly. Those long range models won’t be right all the time.

    Almost certainly? Based on? Gonzo's prognosis has long term averages on its side.

    I'm feeling a mucky late winter with frosty, but not snowy, interludes blending into milder but still humid conditions in March and a mild April /May overall.


  • #270
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    esposito wrote: »
    That will almost certainly not be the case. We will more than likely get a cold Spring when the PV weakens and cold air spills out. The zonal winds will reverse and we will get our much sought after easterly. Those long range models won’t be right all the time.

    Even when the pv weakens ,there is no guarantee the cold will spill down into eastern Europe /Siberia.
    The cold could just as easy pore into Canada North am America.
    Yes we will get an easterly but it could be a mild even a warm one.


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  • #271
    Naggdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    I don't know what the weather will do beyond 7 days. I know it's not the most profound statement ever made in the FI thread but it offers hope for all of us from 6th February on for whatever we're into :)


This discussion has been closed.
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