UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING

mailburner · 01-05-2011 12:00pm

so close to a clean sweep

hominick must be made of steel
was sure the ref was stopping that one

barely breaking even after getting the double up and
if shields had somehow won, i'd have needed oxygen

Xlami · 01-05-2011 2:44pm

Very unlucky, shocked Hominick was allowed to continue but he showed great heart. DW praised the doctor in his interview with Ariel Hewaine.

Mellor · 02-05-2011 4:48am

Mellor wrote: »

UFC 129
not all fights cover here, but a decent run down of my thoughts

Predictions:

Lightweight bout: Mark Bocek vs. Ben Henderson
Henderson coming off a lose against Pettis (the former WEC lightweight champ who lost his belt on the merger). But brought us that WTF moment when he ran up and jumped off the cage to deliver a head kick. Bocek had a recent lose to Jim Miller, but gave the younger of the UFC Siblings his toughest bout yet. It's very close, Bocek is a BJJ blackbelt, with a Blackbelt in Karate, Henderson is a BJJ brown belt with a blackbelt in TKD. It's clsoe but I think this one stays standing and Henderson's striking is best.
Henderson by decision

Light Heavyweight bout: Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida
Looking forward to this one the most. Randy is a hero. Lyoto went from being my favourite fighter to one of my most disliked. He initially was excellant, elusive, great strikes and never got hit. Then he won the belt and he became boring. Shogun ripped him apart and he was never the same. He is on a 2 (well really 3) fight losing streak and needs to win this to stay near the top of the division (or even in the UFC). For Randy, he has nothing to win or lose and he'll still leave it all out there.
Randy fights best as a dirty boxer. Clinch, and control against the cage. A polar opposite to the pounce, strike, evade tactics of "The Dragon". Machida has shown he can hold his own agaisnt powerful fighters like Rampage and I expect him to take the win here. I can't see him leaving it in the hands of the Judges seeing as his two most recent decisions (Shogun & Rampage) were questioned by more than a few people.
Machida by TKO in the 3rd

Featherweight Championship bout: José Aldo (c) vs. Mark Hominick
Jose Aldo finally makes his UFC debut. The UFC worlds is about to see what the MMA world has known for a long time. Aldo is top 3 pound for pound in the world. Unbelievably fast. Unreal striking. And, similar to Anderson Silva, a BJJ black belt that rarely chooses to use these skills. He crippled Faber with leg kicks. I except him to do the same to Hominick, who has left them unchecked before. Follow up with a big head kick, or flying knee to drop him, finishing it on the ground.
Aldo by TKO in the 2nd or 3rd

Welterweight Championship bout: Georges St-Pierre (c) vs. Jake Shields
Jake Shields has a much better chance of winning than the odds suggest. He has unreal BJJ. Or rather American JJ as he refers to it as. GSP is also a black belt, but this is a situation where not all black belts are equal. Their wrestling is probably near equal - Shields is better at dominating on the ground. George has better takedown defence. However, GSP is better everywhere else, faster and definitely has better cardio/stamina.
It terms of striking, GSP is clinical. His double jab ripped Koschek apart. And is well able to throw a head kick. Shields is clunky on his feet, not really looking comfortable striking. He throws look kicks at will, due to a lack of fear of being put on his back.
If shields wants to win, he needs a sub in the first two rounds imo.
I expect GSP to push the pace early, but keep his distance and importantly, keep it standing.
Weighing up everything. I expect GSP to win by 4th or 5th round TKO or decision

4/4 in match betting
The good run continues

mailburner · 02-05-2011 12:42pm

it was fairly easy to pick the winners of these bouts especially
machida, gsp and aldo who were long odds on
it was hard to make a case for their opponents with
maybe shields being the exception for a lot of people.
henderson was the value call at 8/11

rory mac donald was one that got away in fairness at 5/6
should have been shorter after his fight with condit

Denners.ie · 27-05-2011 9:51pm

I think Kendall Grove is value tomorrow at 8/13. I don't like betting on guys that have various flaws but I can't see Boetsch troubling him tbh.

SDTimeout · 28-05-2011 9:58pm

McDonald FOTN 12/1

Think it has an outside chance, the dude is one of the most exciting prospects in the UFC at the moment.

mailburner · 28-05-2011 10:12pm

went for brian stann last weekend at 5/6
wished id taken the evens available a few weeks back
could see him knocking out santiago

and stuck him in a double with roy nelson at evens
great price imo for a man who went three round with jds
its possible mir might win a decision but i dont see him
winning by any other method and even if mir stands
with nelson for three i still think nelson will come out tops

also stuck a few euro on
stann, nelson, ramapge by ko at 25s (will hill)
unlikely maybe but its still a generous price imo http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/2063487/UFC-130---KO-Special.html

if rampage cant beat hamill ill be amazed

struve looks a big price at 6/5 to beat travis browne
possible fotn contender imo but thats a market i avoid
like the plague as its impossible to predict imo

might mouse v torres another one i cant wait for
surely a great fight by decision either way
cant call it

SDTimeout · 28-05-2011 10:20pm

Another bed on the McDonald fight. Really think he is going to win here tonight and by a stoppage of some form. ONLY gripe is that he took this fight while prepping for one in August. Might be too much for the 19 year old. Time will tell.

To win in RD 1 2 or 3 spread over odds of 3/1 7/2 and 6/1

mailburner · 04-06-2011 10:52pm

gone for a treble tonight of

grispi 2/9
pettis 4/9
credeur 5/6

grispi only needs to show up to win this one
roop will probably be cut after losing this one

can't see anything but a pettis win v guida

credeur is evens with boyles
that looks like great value to me

mailburner · 05-06-2011 1:34am

mailburner wrote: »

gone for a treble tonight of

grispi 2/9
pettis 4/9
credeur 5/6

grispi only needs to show up to win this one
roop will probably be cut after losing this one

can't see anything but a pettis win v guida

credeur is evens with boyles
that looks like great value to me

talk about underestimating roop or maybe thinking
grispi was better than that :eek:

gone for the pettis credeur double to salvage my night

Mellor · 06-06-2011 1:15am

Not a great result for you there!!!

You can never wrote off Guida, he's an animal

mailburner · 06-06-2011 1:57am

Mellor wrote: »

Not a great result for you there!!!

you could say that mellor :pac:

doubt anyone made money on last nights card.

at least i tried..no doubt if i called all the fights right you
certainly wouldn't be here saying well done

Mellor · 06-06-2011 2:29am

mailburner wrote: »

you could say that mellor :pac:

doubt anyone made money on last nights card.

at least i tried..no doubt if i called all the fights right you
certainly wouldn't be here saying well done

Of course I would, no reason not to.

The first event I haven't bet on in a long time. I was going to do Roop/Kingsbury/Pettis - glad I missed it now

Fall_Guy · 06-06-2011 10:19am

mailburner wrote: »

you could say that mellor :pac:

doubt anyone made money on last nights card.

at least i tried..no doubt if i called all the fights right you
certainly wouldn't be here saying well done

at the risk of sounding like a total douche, i had a double on guida and ferguson at 5/1. I just felt that guida would be able to suffocate pettis and that ferguson's wrestling was being under-rated.

that said, i've probably bet on 6 or seven events over the past couple of years and that's the first time i've collected anything, so i don't think i can afford to be too smug!

fightireland · 07-06-2011 10:20am

Fall_Guy wrote: »

at the risk of sounding like a total douche, i had a double on guida and ferguson at 5/1.

Never apologise for winning - you put your money where your mouth was so enjoy it :-)

SDTimeout · 11-06-2011 6:30pm

Love the UFC for the long odds on things that could happen.

1.50 Trixie on Maia by Sub 3/1, Olav by Sub 4/1 and Nunes by KO 16/1.

FOTN Florian vs Nunes 5/1 or Stout vs Edwards 11/2.

Sub of night Olav 10/1.

fightireland · 11-06-2011 8:01pm

So here's my tip lads and lassies.

€100 on Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha to finish in the first round.

Wins you €300 :-)

ben.schlomo · 11-06-2011 9:15pm

I've got a double on Cerrone by submission and Herman ko. Pays around 6s.

mailburner · 11-06-2011 9:44pm

for the sake of having a bet

did a treble on

rosa 4/7
munoz 8/11
jds by ko or points evens

Denners.ie · 11-06-2011 9:58pm

mailburner wrote: »

for the sake of having a bet

did a treble on

rosa 4/7
munoz 8/11
jds by ko or points evens

Did you do that with PP mailburner?

mailburner · 11-06-2011 10:31pm

Denners.ie wrote: »

Did you do that with PP mailburner?

yep

i had to ring up to get the bet on though
same as ever

ScareGilly · 11-06-2011 10:41pm

ben.schlomo wrote: »

I've got a double on Cerrone by submission and Herman ko. Pays around 6s.

Absolutely no chance of Rocha getting submitted by Cerrone..

Found €50 today so I thought I'd give this a go :P

JDS, Nunes, Einemo, Maia & Sozsynski to win, €1 31/1

Rocha by Submission, €3 4/1
Cerrone by decision, €3 13/8

Einemo fight to go the distance - No, €30 4/9

FoTN - Poirier fight, €2 12/1

KoTN - Nunes, €2 40/1 Yves Edwards, €2 25/1 Sam Stout, €2 20/1

SoTN - Sozsynski, €2 18/1 Rocha, €2 16/1 Einemo, €3 10/1

JDS by Ko/Points, €5 Evens
Carwin by Ko/Points, €5 9/5

Denners.ie · 11-06-2011 11:14pm

mailburner wrote: »

yep

i had to ring up to get the bet on though
same as ever

I wanted to put the double chance in with something but couldn't do it online, offered it to me at 8/13 on the phone if I was putting it in an accumulator. Joke shop.

ScareGilly · 12-06-2011 1:54am

Looks like my Stout bet should come in

:P

fightireland · 13-06-2011 12:05am

fightireland wrote: »

So here's my tip lads and lassies.

€100 on Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha to finish in the first round.

Wins you €300 :-)

FML

mailburner · 06-08-2011 8:04pm

brian ebersole a stand out value bet for me at evens with bet365
backed him thurs at 21/20 and that's my only bet tonight and
first mma bet in ages
i've a decent bet on him by my standards

i do regret not sticking a few quid on hendo at 15/8 purely
because it was a biggish price but its easy say that now
If im being honest i did think fedor might have too much power for dan though

scudzilla · 06-08-2011 8:06pm

Belfort v Akiyama is a very sexy 10/3 for FotN wit PP

ben.schlomo · 06-08-2011 8:43pm

scudzilla wrote: »

Belfort v Akiyama is a very sexy 10/3 for FotN wit PP

Where did you find the fotn or sotn prices?

I've gone for Belfort ko with McDonald points.
And a random longshot of Pyle and Tito by submission pays 55/1!!

scudzilla · 06-08-2011 8:52pm

ben.schlomo wrote: »

Where did you find the fotn or sotn prices?

I've gone for Belfort ko with McDonald points.
And a random longshot of Pyle and Tito by submission pays 55/1!!

Here ya go

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/ufc-mma/ufc-matches

ben.schlomo · 06-08-2011 8:53pm

scudzilla wrote: »

Here ya go

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/ufc-mma/ufc-matches

How the fook did i miss that!!!! :cool:

UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

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UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING