Property Market 2020

ToxicPaddy wrote: »

I've been keeping an eye on the housing market in Dublin more out of curiosity than anything else and to see if Brexit or other factors have an impact in the coming years.

The current cost of second hand units in the area were I live are off in a fantasy land. Either the sellers or the EAs advising them are clueless or deluded. This is not in Dublin city, but a commuter belt town which has 2 x new developments in progress and potentially two more happening in the next 12 months judging by the planning passed for the area.

An example being of one house in the area that is a fair bit smaller than our current new build, in need of a good bit of work, new updated kitchen, insulation and heating upgrade etc and is listed at over €120k more than what we paid 12 months ago.

It's one of a number which are appearing on the market in the area and all appear seriously over priced. I know asking and actual selling price are two very different things but surely they know people do research and can see previous selling prices in the areas from the property price register.

I can understand why people are now preferring new builds, no bidding wars, price is fixed and everything is new with little or no maintenance required for the first few years.

Can anyone explain this type of behaviour for second hand houses as I'm completely confused tbh?

The minimum 10% social housing element would personally have me favoring 2nd hand house in more settled estates any day. That 10% is usually even higher, we bought 5 years ago and viewed showhouses in a new development in D15. Turns out an entire block of houses/apartments was being allocated as social housing adjacent to the private ones. By my calculations this was 25% of that particular phase of development. This is something that is being kept very quiet and conveniently never mentioned by the developers or EAs, as they don't want the folks handing them 400k for a house knowing large numbers of people are getting the same house next door essentially free. Call me snobby or whatever but we based our decision to avoid on the (repeated) history of how antisocial behaviour starts and grows in social housing estates.


Another reason may be, houses that are 20+ years old will have any building faults or fire dangers exposed by then. If they can get away with building defective primary schools (as recently as 2017), it's not a far stretch to believe there could be serious unexposed engineering faults or fire hazards in new home/apartment builds being completed now.


Anyway that's my 2c, in summary people don't just consider insulation and new kitchens when choosing whether to buy a new build or 2nd hand home. I still believe location is the #1 factor.

Most builders went bankrupt between 2008 and 2010 ,or stop working in ireland,imagine building houses, in athlone priced at 200k,
overnight they were only worth 130k.When the crash happened .Nama was set up to manage property and house,s ,building,s ,etc
which the banks now owned .ghost estates were left empty which had to
be managed and finished ,after the builders went out of business .

One of the main reasons 2nd hand house prices are so unrealistic is that anyone looking to sell needs to have a 20% deposit to purchase anything else.

Unless they have a huge chunk of savings they need the equity from the house sale.

The Central Bank rules for the most part are a good idea but 2nd hand house owners generally don’t have 80-100k lying around so will need to get that money from someone if they want to buy.

It is what it is.

D.Wilmott wrote: »

The minimum 10% social housing element would personally have me favoring 2nd hand house in more settled estates any day. That 10% is usually even higher, we bought 5 years ago and viewed showhouses in a new development in D15. Turns out an entire block of houses/apartments was being allocated as social housing adjacent to the private ones. By my calculations this was 25% of that particular phase of development. This is something that is being kept very quiet and conveniently never mentioned by the developers or EAs, as they don't want the folks handing them 400k for a house knowing large numbers of people are getting the same house next door essentially free. Call me snobby or whatever but we based our decision to avoid on the (repeated) history of how antisocial behaviour starts and grows in social housing estates.


Another reason may be, houses that are 20+ years old will have any building faults or fire dangers exposed by then. If they can get away with building defective primary schools (as recently as 2017), it's not a far stretch to believe there could be serious unexposed engineering faults or fire hazards in new home/apartment builds being completed now.


Anyway that's my 2c, in summary people don't just consider insulation and new kitchens when choosing whether to buy a new build or 2nd hand home. I still believe location is the #1 factor.

This was the reason why I didn’t look at new builds to begin along with gardens. It’s different in Cork as new build estates don’t seem to have planning for apartments (well the ones I’ve looked at) and are smaller in nature. I must say the two we look at first question I asked what which houses were social housing which they had no issue with disclosing. And also one or two second hand house estate we looked at - we were very surprised how many have been sold to the Council. One house we were bidding on we were bidding against the Council! So I would say you have to be wary in both regards.

Prices are falling all across Dublin now which is great news.

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-roseneath-villas-military-road-st-lukes-cork-city-cork/4326164

This place has been for sale for longest time, recently dropped 50k in listed price from 310k down to 260k, it has now peaked my interest a little.

Wondering if any Cork folk have experience of this house or the area?

At a very wild guess, it needs works but you'll be hamstrung in that you need planning for absolutely everything, including wallpaper, rooms, floors, doors.

The_Conductor wrote: »

We are building roughly 22k units per annum.
Of this just over 10k units are hitting the open market- the other 12k are being sold to institutional investors of one type or another.
The other 54,000 odd units being sold in the market are the secondhand units.

I was surprised with the numbers, and couldn't find this information myself. But looking at PPR seems like it may be the right figures. I have aggregated data, on number of transactions (separated in New property and Second hand) from PPR. There is no yet full data on PPR for December, and Dwelling completion for 2019 Q4. But based on the Trends, New Dwelling transaction count should be almost identical to last year, at around 11K.

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| Year | New_cnt | Old_cnt | Completion |
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| 2010 | 5,308 | 15,666 | |
| 2011 | 2,950 | 15,463 | 6,994 |
| 2012 | 3,170 | 22,167 | 4,911 |
| 2013 | 3,752 | 26,292 | 4,575 |
| 2014 | 5,412 | 38,183 | 5,518 |
| 2015 | 6,237 | 42,849 | 7,219 |
| 2016 | 6,834 | 42,937 | 9,892 |
| 2017 | 9,340 | 45,517 | 14,368 |
| 2018 | 11,044 | 46,156 | 17,995 |
| 2019 | 10,335 | 44,625 | 21,237* |
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* - estimated 2019 completion based on the trends.

Nika Bolokov wrote: »

However the early 90s 3 bed semi d's in Dublin 16 asking near 600k are not selling. Mortgage rules mean people can't go mad anymore.

3 bed semi d's asking 600k down the road in D14 are selling though, those in OK nick anyway.

Good houses are still making their asking.

I totally agree though, having looked recently, there is a lot of serious "projects" on the market with high asking prices.

I viewed on in Dundrum that was subsequently reduced by €100k. When I went to see it in person, I could see why, it seriously needed a wrecking ball. Sure, it was a bungalow that had been given a dormer extension but it was so badly done (super narrow/steap stairs, awkward rooms etc) that I couldnt see how you'd fix it without spending a bomb. Its no longer on line and I wonder now if its been sold or withdrawn. The photos made it appear like it just needed redecorating and new kitchen/bathroom, but when I saw it the dimensions of the rooms and the quality of the previous extension were fundamentally flawed. You'd have had to have been mad to buy it at their initial asking price. It was an executor sale, so I don't know if there was greed on behalf of the family or just bad advice from the selling agent.

In contrast, a house on my parents road sold in H2 2019 for full asking. 1920s 3 bed red brick terrace, asking €875k but in very nice condition. The previous owners had done some work (sold due to marriage breakdown) and had obviously done it to a standard that they'd intended to live in themselves for years. Checked the PPR over christmas and it made full asking.

I think it just costs so much to get work done these days - the standards are so high, and builders charge a bomb. Properties with good fundamental characteristics, that have been maintained in an ongoing way by their previous owners etc will still sell quite easily. Delapidated wrecks however will need to be very competitively priced and will probably only appeal to those trading up who have equity, unless the govt were to offer more renovation incentives.

SozBbz wrote: »

I think it just costs so much to get work done these days - the standards are so high, and builders charge a bomb. Properties with good fundamental characteristics, that have been maintained in an ongoing way by their previous owners etc will still sell quite easily. Delapidated wrecks however will need to be very competitively priced and will probably only appeal to those trading up who have equity, unless the govt were to offer more renovation incentives.

Yep - hard to get builders. Hard to get builders you trust. Hard to get tradespeople.

Plus, younger people in general are less DIY-competent these days, and are less confident about taking on a job themselves. They also have less time available in general. That's not a criticism, just an observation.

Added to all that, mortgage rates are very low and quite affordable. Why take on the headache of a fixer upper, when you can just add 20 grand to your budget and go for a better maintained property?

If house,s are not selling in general ,they are over priced ,
or people may be waiting a year to see what happens ,how badly will brexit effect the irish economy.
will it cause a steep decline in house,s prices.
it costs nothing to view a house .
do,nt just go by photo,s .
we have a shortage of builder,s in ireland.
many builders left after 2008.

I bought my home in 2013. If I’d bought it purely as an investment I’d sell in 2020. Not because of Brexit, supply concerns or even global warming. I’d sell because anyone who bought in 2012, 2013 and 2014 received an exemption for Capital Gains if the property was held for 7 years.

In a flat, or even a slowly rising market, I’d be losing money as the extra ordinary tax free gains start attracting Capital Gains.