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15-12-2018, 19:33   #1
The_Conductor
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Property Market 2019

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.
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01-01-2019, 14:19   #2
GGTrek
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Property Market 2019

It looks like houses are being built in the wrong places for owner occupiers:
https://www.independent.ie/irish-new...-37666390.html


https://www.independent.ie/business/...-37665341.html


So supply is finally coming albeit not close to where the jobs are.


The main problem is that the rental market has diverged from the sale market (probably due to continuous absurd interference from the legislators), Tom Lyons:
However, while there may be hope of relief for buyers, there is no indication that the rental market price rises are set to ease off.
"2018 was the year that sales and rental segments detached."


Conor Skehan:
Mr Skehan predicts the over-supply of the wrong type of housing, the lack of convenient rental properties, and increasing rents will lead to the emergence of what he calls a "new urban politics". "Whether it will be new political parties or new politics by existing parties will depend on how the next 12 months is handled," he says.



There is no hope for renters and landlords in Ireland in my opinion.
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01-01-2019, 15:22   #3
Pussyhands
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Prediction for 2019

- prices to continue to rise before falling in H2 and then will drop due to impending recession in late 2019/20
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01-01-2019, 16:43   #4
hmmm
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The market is like a river with multiple streams feeding into it - I don't think you can talk about a single property market.

One stream is high end property, which seems to be calming down considerably. Buyers here may be waiting until Brexit sorts itself out. Despite several predictions of imminent worldwide recession, there are plenty of mainstream commentators who are saying that economic fundamentals look quite strong - and we may even see a resolution to Trump/Brexit uncertainty in 2019 which would help confidence.

The next stream is property for sale to your typical "middle class". Supply here seems to be increasing, and prices are bouncing off the Central Bank limits. Property is there to be bought if you want it, but you might have to compromise on location or size of property. This market will find a stable equilibrium over the next few years as no builder is going to build unless they can make a profit. Attempts to increase the % of social housing in new build estates could lead unintentionally to a large drop in building activity. I can't see anything other than a catastrophic Brexit as a short term threat, and the changes of that is quite minimal.

Affordable housing for workers on lower wages remains a problem. There is property available, but the government affordability schemes (like all government schemes) are overly bureaucratic and not delivering. There is a bit of an expectation problem with lower paid workers expecting to be able to own a house close to Dublin city centre on a lower wage, which is never going to be realistic. The other problem is the cost of building - if a builder can only build houses for 200k at a minimum, that's the floor for new builds and no amount of protesting will fix it. Something radical needs to change here before this market changes - perhaps lower build standards.

The "homeless"/social housing market. Hard to know with this one, there seems to be a few genuine cases and a lot of people trying to game the system. It generates a lot of noise, but I don't see any celebrities offering to build social housing in their large back gardens. Putting a small amount of social housing into private estates is already testing purchasers patience, and there seems to be considerable opposition to building large social housing estates. Not easy to see an answer to this one.

The rental market appears to be screwed in the near term. Attempts to "fix" rents have largely backfired (as predicted), and small landlords are leaving the market. We have seen corporate landlords come in, and this can only be a good thing in terms of supply (and quality), but only if you can afford it. The demise of the bedsit/small apartment leaves a massive gap for cheaper rental accomodation for the lower paid. I think without some sort of radical change (e.g. allowing micro apartments New York style) there is no quick fix. This will generate a lot of noise from multinationals, as their foreign employees cannot source rental accommodation - maybe we'll see a return to the days when employers built housing for employees.

Last edited by hmmm; 01-01-2019 at 16:48.
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01-01-2019, 19:31   #5
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Brexit brexit and brexit is going to place the market under pressure. The real test will be 2020 on as recession seems to be on the cards from 2020 on as pointed to by some analysts
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01-01-2019, 19:57   #6
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I feel Brexit will cause an immediate short term spike in prices of properties. I know few people planning to move to Ireland from UK as their companies are moving to Ireland. That way many professionals will be living and working in Ireland.

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Brexit brexit and brexit is going to place the market under pressure. The real test will be 2020 on as recession seems to be on the cards from 2020 on as pointed to by some analysts
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01-01-2019, 21:38   #7
airportgirl83
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I feel Brexit will cause an immediate short term spike in prices of properties. I know few people planning to move to Ireland from UK as their companies are moving to Ireland. That way many professionals will be living and working in Ireland.
https://m.independent.ie/business/pe...-37668643.html
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01-01-2019, 22:46   #8
riclad
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Theres the high end market , house,s over 500k, in city area,s ,upper class area,s
the rural market , the lower end of the market , council house,s etc
I think 2 factors that will effect the market in 2019 is brexit and the stock market.
The economy will be effected in 2019,
why should new companys move to ireland when theres a major rental crisis .There will be some pushback from voters due to high rents,s
,people are spending some much on rent from their salarys .
The stock market had a large decline in december .
i think the strict rules on lending simply place limits on how much prices can rise even in dublin .
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02-01-2019, 10:53   #9
beaz2018
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5% increase for 2019 coming according to Davy and myhome. Id imagine this will be mainly outside Dublin as there seems to be scope for people to borrow more as a % of their salary. Dublin is maxed out in that regard, apparently.
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02-01-2019, 11:47   #10
Bob24
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To be honest no one knows for sure what the actual impact of Brexit will be. The only unbiased comment one can make is that there is a lot of uncertainty (what Bexit even means is not clear yet, and might not be for a while - even after the March deadline) . Someone saying that Brexit will push prices one way or another is making a lot of assumptions to deliver actual predictions out of that uncertainty. And given the large number of assumptions, how huge the impact would be if even one of them is wrong, and the relatively low level of certainty for each of them - I personally don’t give too much credit to any Brexit related prediction.
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02-01-2019, 14:42   #11
padd b1975
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5% increase for 2019 coming according to Davy and myhome. Id imagine this will be mainly outside Dublin as there seems to be scope for people to borrow more as a % of their salary. Dublin is maxed out in that regard, apparently.
Average wages are still rising which should translate into single figure growth at the middle/lower end of the market.
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02-01-2019, 14:47   #12
Franz Von Peppercorn
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5% increase for 2019 coming according to Davy and myhome. Id imagine this will be mainly outside Dublin as there seems to be scope for people to borrow more as a % of their salary. Dublin is maxed out in that regard, apparently.
Expect some loosening of credit if that happens.
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02-01-2019, 15:50   #13
beaz2018
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Expect some loosening of credit if that happens.
There will be no loosening of credit, Philip Lane has been adamant about that.
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02-01-2019, 16:07   #14
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There will be no loosening of credit, Philip Lane has been adamant about that.
Have to say, I'm a huge fan of his. A rare voice of reason in an Irish state body.
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02-01-2019, 16:43   #15
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I think the actual process and legal changes involved in implementing Brexit will be long, messy, complicated and drawn out, certainly not something that will happen overnight on March 29th. As a result, any meaningful impact on the Irish property market will probably not be felt for at least 3-5 years.
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