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11-01-2019, 11:54   #166
RobertKK
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Higher pressure than normal over the Arctic, lower than normal over western Europe in particular. It is saying a negative NAO, so northerly to easterly winds would dominate, if I am reading it correctly.
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11-01-2019, 12:03   #167
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Can someone please help me interpret this chart from the GLOSEA?
Very large northern blocking with a deep area of low pressure to the southeast of us making the UK & Ireland a battleground and the mean wind direction would be easterly to northeasterly. The low would provide moisture for some of the white stuff.
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11-01-2019, 12:37   #168
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Proper Northern blocking, that would mean winds east to North Easterly for Ireland

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Can someone please help me interpret this chart from the GLOSEA?

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11-01-2019, 14:16   #169
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Some lovely charts showing up in the FV3 6z from 192 onwards - let's see if the 12z can keep this signal going!
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11-01-2019, 14:17   #170
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I'm still very skeptical about our chances later in Jan and going into Feb but the AO ensemble forecast is definitely looking interesting
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11-01-2019, 14:23   #171
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Why the scepticism?
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11-01-2019, 14:39   #172
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Nothing scientific but after years of let downs I think its wise to be a bit skeptical until we have solid cross model agreement much closer to +0hrs. A shift here and there and we may just end up in no mans land as has happened countless times before. At the same time however I do agree with all that's been said above - the long range signals are all very positive and it looks like tropospheric vortex will be somewhat disturbed as we enter the last third of January.
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11-01-2019, 14:46   #173
 
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Nothing scientific but after years of let downs I think its wise to be a bit skeptical until we have solid cross model agreement much closer to +0hrs. A shift here and there and we may just end up in no mans land as has happened countless times before. At the same time however I do agree with all that's been said above - the long range signals are all very positive and it looks like tropospheric vortex will be somewhat disturbed as we enter the last third of January.
Model agreement at +0 hours isn’t very trusting in any model.

The netweather guys are all excited. Admittedly we are further west again.
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11-01-2019, 14:51   #174
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Why the scepticism?
the possibilities of really cold weather are not showing up reliably in the short term. All the very cold solutions are way out in FI several weeks away, so that would explain why not everyone is confident.

The Latest JMA models looks very promising, with increasing cold from January 18th. To begin with probably not that cold for Ireland, but certainly eastern UK could start to see very cold conditions slowly move westwards.

At the same time it shows a mid Atlantic ridge shifting northwards and settling over Greenland, allowing the freezer to fully make it's way across to Ireland by the 25th of January and lasting till about the 8th of February.

Below average heights over us and western Europe would indicate some precipitation, mostly in the form of snow and hail effecting many parts of the country, especially the east.
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11-01-2019, 14:54   #175
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Model agreement at +0 hours isn’t very trusting in any model.

The netweather guys are all excited. Admittedly we are further west again.
Maybe not +0hr but for me the excitement will only start when I see cross model agreement for snowy charts below the 150 mark. I can't remember how it went last year but if I recall correctly the only time that a cold spell has been modeled correctly and precisely from the depths of FI right down to impact was the November/December 2010 North Easterly. Anyways, interesting model watching ahead that's for sure.
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11-01-2019, 16:28   #176
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You need NAO also to go negative, at the moment mean line is positive to neutral for the next 10 days. Few outliers going strongly negative very early but most members are going for slightly positive to neutral. Trend is downwards anyway. For the next 10 days it will be on and off westerly / North westerly with cold to mild intervals.

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I'm still very skeptical about our chances later in Jan and going into Feb but the AO ensemble forecast is definitely looking interesting
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11-01-2019, 17:08   #177
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Lovely GFS 12z bringing heavy snow showers and strong northeasterly winds to the east (windy everywhere). Too far out to take too seriously and especially trying to find where exactly will get the showers

Last edited by Artane2002; 11-01-2019 at 17:39.
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11-01-2019, 17:12   #178
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Lovely GFS 12z bringing heavy snow showers and strong northeasterly winds to the east (windy everywhere). Too far out to take too seriously and especially trying to find where exactlywill get the showers
Northeasterly? Naas Road corridor so. I’ll wait for a few more runs before possibly taking bookings for snow loving lodgers if last Feb and Dec 2010 is anything to go by!
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11-01-2019, 17:36   #179
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Lovely GFS 12z bringing heavy snow showers and strong northeasterly winds to the east (windy everywhere). Too far out to take too seriously and especially trying to find where exactlywill get the showers
Indeed, it doesn't get much better than this for snow lovers in the east of the country -










Encouraging signs of something significant building for the last week of Jan... UKMO very good at day 6
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11-01-2019, 19:40   #180
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As mentioned in the general chat thread, GFS para showing some unreal scenes in deep FI. Good output for nearer (+240hrs) as well.

264hrs



360hrs

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