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Property Market 2020

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Just buying a new build this month - honestly the rent we are paying out is insane (€1750 for ****ty 3 bed in Naas - landlord is in Australia) vs what we will be paying in a mortgage (<€1200 per month for 4 bed A rated home).

    Even if prices do drop a good bit, it would have to be a serious drop for it to make economic sense for our family to keep renting. Whether it will be a good long term investment- we’ve no idea but we are honestly so glad to have a secure roof over our heads I’m not sure it matters.

    Less than 1200 seems very reasonable for a Gaf. Can you tell us your mortgage term and amount borrowed?


  • Registered Users Posts: 155 ✭✭dowhatyoulove


    odyssey06 wrote: »
    Don't worry about the investment side of things. The main questions are whether you would be happy to still be living there in 10 years time, and think you can afford the repayments.
    The situation you want to avoid is where you have bought a property to get a step on the property ladder in the eventual hope of a trade-up only to see property prices drop and be stuck in negative equity.
    Or, where a recession hits and someone loses jobs \ salary.

    Definitely not a step on the ladder - it’s a family home for us, we won’t be selling until we are old and grey hopefully :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    The Currency reporting that the median homeowner is 46 times wealthier than the median renter. The election results have clearly shown the inequality in Irish society caused by property is no longer sustainable. While the political situation will likely take months to resolve in order to get a government, I wonder will we see a lot more properties coming onto the market soon as homeowners who have been sitting on their price increase with half a view to sell now fearing the election result and the rise of SF?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,001 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    The Currency reporting that the median homeowner is 46 times wealthier than the median renter. The election results have clearly shown the inequality in Irish society caused by property is no longer sustainable. While the political situation will likely take months to resolve in order to get a government, I wonder will we see a lot more properties coming onto the market soon as homeowners who have been sitting on their price increase with half a view to sell now fearing the election result and the rise of SF?


    Likely housing will only get worse. Landlords will sell up even more now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭JamesMason


    I wonder will we see a lot more properties coming onto the market soon as homeowners who have been sitting on their price increase with half a view to sell now fearing the election result and the rise of SF?
    Probably. Also, foreign/investors may leave the market (some were prevented from cashing out last week). Rocky roads ahead both here and abroad in the coming weeks...


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    JamesMason wrote: »
    Probably. Also, foreign/investors may leave the market (some were prevented from cashing out last week). Rocky roads ahead both here and abroad in the coming weeks...

    They have a max 33-34 TDs out of 160- I wouldn't be running scared just yet.
    I still think we'll end up with a hung Dáil and will be back at the ballot box again within 3-4 months- and hopefully people will have thought of some other way of protesting, other than giving SF their vote- thats just me though. You can protest without voting FF, FG or SF.......

    I think the whole rent freeze threat and the prospects of actually taxing the REITs etc- will have some of the institutional investors reassessing their positions- however, that may be wishful thinking.

    One way or the other- whatever is coming down the line is going to be several months in the future, rather than mere weeks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    They have a max 33-34 TDs out of 160- I wouldn't be running scared just yet.
    I still think we'll end up with a hung Dáil and will be back at the ballot box again within 3-4 months- and hopefully people will have thought of some other way of protesting, other than giving SF their vote- thats just me though. You can protest without voting FF, FG or SF.......

    I think the whole rent freeze threat and the prospects of actually taxing the REITs etc- will have some of the institutional investors reassessing their positions- however, that may be wishful thinking.

    One way or the other- whatever is coming down the line is going to be several months in the future, rather than mere weeks.

    If SF had put up enough candidates I think it’s clear they would’ve formed the government and Mary Lou would be Taoiseach elect. FG and FF are incredibly out of touch and aloof. Unsurprisingly since most of them are landlord millionaires. They come across as sneering and arrogant and they have no will to tackle the housing crisis as that would impact their bottom line. People are fed up with their elitism. I think. SF cabinet is now just a matter of time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 613 ✭✭✭J_1980


    pearcider wrote: »
    If SF had put up enough candidates I think it’s clear they would’ve formed the government and Mary Lou would be Taoiseach elect. FG and FF are incredibly out of touch and aloof. Unsurprisingly since most of them are landlord millionaires. They come across as sneering and arrogant and they have no will to tackle the housing crisis as that would impact their bottom line. People are fed up with their elitism. I think. SF cabinet is now just a matter of time.

    The left vote is still only 38%.

    There’s no way a government can be formed without FFG and the non left Independents.
    Still stand by it, there wont be more than 20-25k housing completions pa. no matter who is in government.
    Every left party/government in Europe has failed (Hollande in France, Syriza, fivestar Italy) once in power. People severly underestimate the importance of capital flows. It’s called MONETARISM for a reason.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    I suspect it would be prudent to procure a copy of SF Eoin O'Broin's book 'Home: Why Public Housing is the Answer' to better familiarise ourselves with what might be coming down the tracks.........


  • Registered Users Posts: 237 ✭✭nerrad01


    also might be interesting to see someone with an actual knowledge of housing possibly being the minister responsible for it! Would be an interesting read to see what we could be in store for if a FF/SF coalition comes to pass


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,435 ✭✭✭caviardreams


    I suspect it would be prudent to procure a copy of SF Eoin O'Broin's book 'Home: Why Public Housing is the Answer' to better familiarise ourselves with what might be coming down the tracks.........

    65 copies available through the public libraries - can order in from any branch online and collect in your local library if you're a member:
    https://librariesireland.iii.com/iii/encore/record/C__Rb4983783


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    I suspect it would be prudent to procure a copy of SF Eoin O'Broin's book 'Home: Why Public Housing is the Answer' to better familiarise ourselves with what might be coming down the tracks.........

    IT review;

    "His mindset is of classic social democracy, respectful of markets, insistent on the need for State intervention, and willing to trawl through and weigh up the often uncertain lessons of policy experiment and academic analysis to work out what shape the market-State combination should take in Ireland’s housing system today. The result is a sober, thoughtful and complex read, justifiably so since no simple formula for success jumps out of history or current international experience."

    5.99 on kindle, I just bought it there to give it a read (FG voter 1 and 2 myself but no strong party allegiances).


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    I have a feeling the coronavirus will take its toll on global economy in the middle/long run, the property market may stall if fear start to spread in Europe and Ireland that way it has in Eastern Asia


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    I have a feeling the coronavirus will take its toll on global economy in the middle/long run, the property market may stall if fear start to spread in Europe and Ireland that way it has in Eastern Asia

    Fiat/Chrysler are closing down a factory tomorrow due to lack of parts- and Peugeot (incl. Opel) are going on short hours to preserve supplies of some parts which are beginning to become constrained.

    The defacto shutdown of China- is already affecting European communities- and its effects are only going to be magnified, the longer the shutdown continues.

    We have had 15 negative test results and 3 that the HSE haven't announced, here in Ireland. There is a degree of inevitability that it is going to make an appearance here- its a matter of when, not if. When it makes an appearance- it is far more communicable than SARS or other viruses- even if its pathology is not as dangerous (it has a mortality rate of approx. 3%).

    We're very much in the calm before the storm.


  • Posts: 0 Allie Jolly Cane


    Offering people Grant's or the ability to borrow more is not the answer. More houses need to be built in high demand areas. Whether they are built by private or public sector doesn't really matter to me.

    I would favour compulsory purchase orders of land to get those houses built.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Offering people Grant's or the ability to borrow more is not the answer. More houses need to be built in high demand areas. Whether they are built by private or public sector doesn't really matter to me.

    I would favour compulsory purchase orders of land to get those houses built.

    I'd just rephrase this- its dwellings that are needed not 'houses'.
    In particular we need high density high rise developments in our city centres- and we need to get over the hangups we have about building heights- we are deliberately hamstringing ourselves.

    Yes- the SDZs have a part to play- providing they are equipped with necessary facilities, services and amenities (not least of which should be decent public transport)- but the elephant in the corner is the lack of high density developments in our city centres- the absence of which is inexcusable.


  • Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭JamesMason


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    I have a feeling the coronavirus will take its toll on global economy in the middle/long run, the property market may stall if fear start to spread in Europe and Ireland that way it has in Eastern Asia
    To be fair the property market has already stalled. But I agree with you, the coronavirus health issue will have a major ripple effect on the global economy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 585 ✭✭✭Summer2020


    I think people are clutching at straws here in thinking the Coronavirus is going to have an affect on the Irish property market. The threat of Brexit has been looming for the past 3 years and this has only had a negligible affect. The Coronavirus will be yesterdays news once it stabilizes and a vaccine has been developed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Summer2020 wrote: »
    I think people are clutching at straws here in thinking the Coronavirus is going to have an affect on the Irish property market. The threat of Brexit has been looming for the past 3 years and this has only had a negligible affect. The Coronavirus will be yesterdays news once it stabilizes and a vaccine has been developed.


    You make it sound like a vaccine is on its way any time now. Remember that as of today there is no vaccine for SARS, it was never developed. Eventually the SARS virus burnt its self off by killing people too quickly to spread


  • Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭JamesMason


    Summer2020 wrote: »
    I think people are clutching at straws here in thinking the Coronavirus is going to have an affect on the Irish property market. The threat of Brexit has been looming for the past 3 years and this has only had a negligible affect. The Coronavirus will be yesterdays news once it stabilizes and a vaccine has been developed.
    It is clutching at straws to think Brexit is done and dusted. The effects of GDPR, fishing and cross border trade are yet to take effect here. But they will and it won't be pretty. As for the corona virus...any slowdown in the Chinese economy will have a knock on effect for everyone.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,424 ✭✭✭garhjw


    pearcider wrote: »
    If SF had put up enough candidates I think it’s clear they would’ve formed the government and Mary Lou would be Taoiseach elect. FG and FF are incredibly out of touch and aloof. Unsurprisingly since most of them are landlord millionaires. They come across as sneering and arrogant and they have no will to tackle the housing crisis as that would impact their bottom line. People are fed up with their elitism. I think. SF cabinet is now just a matter of time.

    They didn’t put up more candidates because they couldn’t find more suitable to run within their party. The idea they have the answers to housing and health is laughable. FG policy took too long to come together but it is on the right track. It has nothing to do with landlords or elitism, it is simple economics, supply is impacted by the ability to build house, public or private. There haven’t been enough workers in the past years to ramp up construction at a faster rate. To think the likes of the OPW could build significant volumes of stock......:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    garhjw wrote: »
    They didn’t put up more candidates because they couldn’t find more suitable to run within their party. The idea they have the answers to housing and health is laughable. FG policy took too long to come together but it is on the right track. It has nothing to do with landlords or elitism, it is simple economics, supply is impacted by the ability to build house, public or private. There haven’t been enough workers in the past years to ramp up construction at a faster rate. To think the likes of the OPW could build significant volumes of stock......:D

    Absolute rubbish. Irish property market is a cartel run by the very rich and it has been since the Brits set it up that way. It was not always so see the huge house building in the 1960s when we made huge inroads with Sean Lemas at the helm - another IRA man. Or look what they did in Vienna post world war 2. That’s the model we should be following not crony capitalism. Read up on the Kenny report which was buried for and sidelined for 40 years as there was no billions to be made by the crony capitalists in sensible housing policy for the working family. FFG know only one policy and that is the policy of the banker elite in London ie to strap working families into paying huge rent forever or paying off a 35 year mortgage with associated huge interest. Crony capitalism and nothing else. Finally the Irish are waking up to the scam of tweedle dum and tweedle dee. Tiocfaidh ar la.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,424 ✭✭✭garhjw


    pearcider wrote: »
    Absolute rubbish. Irish property market is a cartel run by the very rich and it has been since the Brits set it up that way. It was not always so see the huge house building in the 1960s when we made huge inroads with Sean Lemas at the helm - another IRA man. Or look what they did in Vienna post world war 2. That’s the model we should be following not crony capitalism. Read up on the Kenny report which was buried for and sidelined for 40 years as there was no billions to be made by the crony capitalists in sensible housing policy for the working family. FFG know only one policy and that is the policy of the banker elite in London ie to strap working families into paying huge rent forever or paying off a 35 year mortgage with associated huge interest. Crony capitalism and nothing else. Finally the Irish are waking up to the scam of tweedle dum and tweedle dee. Tiocfaidh ar la.

    What exactly is your point? Where will they magic up all the workers to build the houses? You really think they can make a difference?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,814 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    garhjw wrote: »
    They didn’t put up more candidates because they couldn’t find more suitable to run within their party. The idea they have the answers to housing and health is laughable. FG policy took too long to come together but it is on the right track. It has nothing to do with landlords or elitism, it is simple economics, supply is impacted by the ability to build house, public or private. There haven’t been enough workers in the past years to ramp up construction at a faster rate. To think the likes of the OPW could build significant volumes of stock......:D

    That's not true. They have plenty of candidates. There's a big risk of splitting the vote if a constituency can't support the number of candidates you run. Plus the cost in cash and manpower to promote a candidate.

    SF never imagined they'd make the gains they made today. If it goes to a second election this Summer, you'll be guaranteed they'll have plenty more candidates on the ballot sheets.
    garhjw wrote: »
    What exactly is your point? Where will they magic up all the workers to build the houses? You really think they can make a difference?

    I do agree with this.
    There's only so much land, material and builders available at any one time. We're pretty much maxxed out building at the moment.

    It's the same situation in the health service. You can't simply hire more doctors and nurses. The HSE has hundreds of open healthcare professional jobs, but they're in competition with every other western country who are all frantically hiring.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    garhjw wrote: »
    What exactly is your point? Where will they magic up all the workers to build the houses? You really think they can make a difference?

    How do you know if you don't try. FG's attempts at increasing building output has been pitiful. Along with the health fiasco the very reason they will find themselves out of Government.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,240 ✭✭✭MayoSalmon


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    How do you know if you don't try. FG's attempts at increasing building output has been pitiful. Along with the health fiasco the very reason they will find themselves out of Government.

    They will try and they will fail and then the harsh realities of expecting the government to provide all or at least highly subsidize your life will soon be revealed to be a Utopian fairytale it always was.


  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,033 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    How do you know if you don't try. FG's attempts at increasing building output has been pitiful. Along with the health fiasco the very reason they will find themselves out of Government.

    Property completions have been increasing at double digit percentage rates over the past couple of years. That's not pitiful.


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭19233974


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    How do you know if you don't try. FG's attempts at increasing building output has been pitiful. Along with the health fiasco the very reason they will find themselves out of Government.

    we had 20k+ completions last year, the problem is that the vast vast majority of these were build to lets by institiuational investors and very few went for sale on the open market despite the worst housing shortage in modern history in ireland.

    FG had no appetite to change this. This is something that could be rectified very fast


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭19233974


    Does anyone know where to find exact figures of how many of the 20k completions last year went directly to let and not sold on the open market?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,920 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    19233974 wrote: »
    we had 20k+ completions last year, the problem is that the vast vast majority of these were build to lets by institiuational investors and very few went for sale on the open market despite the worst housing shortage in modern history in ireland.
    Does anyone know where to find exact figures of how many of the 20k completions last year went directly to let and not sold on the open market?

    1. What difference does that make? It's sill an increase in supply, they're still places for people to live.

    2. Is it even true? It doesn't appear if you know or not.


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