What are the chances of a coup in Britain?

realdanbreen · 11-09-2019 2:48pm #1

Serious question. What with all the turmoil uncertainty etc and the fact that most business organisations are fuming and scared sh*****s over Brexit what is the likelihood of a coup? I mean there have been plenty of coups in Europe in relatively recent years, Poland,Spain,Portugal, Greece etc.

ancapailldorcha · 11-09-2019 3:02pm

Serious discussion only please. Posts deleted.

[Deleted User] · 11-09-2019 3:04pm

If the Tories implode it will be constructive for wider society in Britain. Their primary concern is looking out for the tax-averse millionaire elite. Including Boris, Rees-Mogg and other Oxbridge alumni of wealthy inheritance.

[Deleted User] · 11-09-2019 3:08pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Serious question. What with all the turmoil uncertainty etc and the fact that most business organisations are fuming and scared sh*****s over Brexit what is the likelihood of a coup? I mean there have been plenty of coups in Europe in relatively recent years, Poland,Spain,Portugal, Greece etc.

Somewhere zero and **** all is my estimation.

If politicians started to "Disappear" and judges become censored, then maybe, but the UK is a long long way from any of that.

LuckyLloyd · 11-09-2019 3:21pm

He didn’t ask if there would be a ‘revolution’. Asking about a ‘coup’ though is a more interesting question. No doubt the army command, intelligence service and civil service is watching on with interest as a succession of ever less powerful, ever less capable and ever less competent Conservative governments take over.

realdanbreen · 11-09-2019 3:25pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

He didn’t ask if there would be a ‘revolution’. Asking about a ‘coup’ though is a more interesting question. No doubt the army command, intelligence service and civil service is watching on with interest as a succession of ever less powerful, ever less capable and ever less competent Conservative governments take over.

Exactly. I mean the parliament is not working and it was the politicians who created this gigantic own goal of a ballsup to begin with. Mark my words big business and vested interests will not stand idly by and see everything go belly up.

Jim2007 · 11-09-2019 3:33pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Serious question. What with all the turmoil uncertainty etc and the fact that most business organisations are fuming and scared sh*****s over Brexit what is the likelihood of a coup? I mean there have been plenty of coups in Europe in relatively recent years, Poland,Spain,Portugal, Greece etc.

Not a serious question by any stretch of the imagination.

realdanbreen · 11-09-2019 3:39pm

Jim2007 wrote: »

Not a serious question by any stretch of the imagination.

What makes you think Great Britain is any more stable than the many other European countries that have had coups or attempted coups in recent years?

Tabnabs · 11-09-2019 3:42pm

How far would Jeremy Corbyn be willing to take the UK down the path of socialism? His dislike of the British military and friends in dubious regimes would be the most likely threat to peace and stability in Britain today. Viewed as an extremist by people in his own party, Corbyn may well present a problem for the UK state if he is elected as PM.

realdanbreen · 11-09-2019 3:45pm

Tabnabs wrote: »

How far would Jeremy Corbyn be willing to take the UK down the path of socialism? His dislike of the British military and friends in dubious regimes would be the most likely threat to peace and stability in Britain today. Viewed as an extremist by people in his own party, Corbyn may well present a problem for the UK state if he is elected as PM.

I doubt if those organising a coup would have plans to install Jeremy Corbyn as PM.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 11-09-2019 3:46pm

A coup would never happen in Britain without the backing or involvement of MI5. So the UK does have people in the background capable of such a thing. But it would have to be very far down the road for them to get there.

It would have to involve mass unemployment, street riots and order breaking down. If Parliament was to be at standstill at that juncture I could see it happening. So we're at least 5 years away from a coup happening in Britain.

Manic Moran · 11-09-2019 3:48pm

Aegir wrote: »

Somewhere zero and **** all is my estimation.

This.

There is no indication that the rule of law has broken down. There is no indication that the Queen, to whom the military swears their oath, is going to get involved either. There is no reason for the military to consider doing anything.

tdf7187 · 11-09-2019 3:51pm

I don't think there is a high probability of a coup but the possibility should not be ruled out.

It is not widely known that there was talk of a coup against Harold Wilson's government due to a conspiracy theory, apparently shared by certain people in M15, that he was a Soviet agent. The coup plans were allegedly well advanced but called off. There has been at least one BBC documentary about this in which some of the coup plotters were interviewed on camera, so it's not some David Icke type conspiracy theory, it was real.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Wilson_conspiracy_theories

realdanbreen · 11-09-2019 3:54pm

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

A coup would never happen in Britain without the backing or involvement of MI5. So the UK does have people in the background capable of such a thing. But it would have to be very far down the road for them to get there.

It would have to involve mass unemployment, street riots and order breaking down. If Parliament was to be at standstill at that juncture I could see it happening. So we're at least 5 years away from a coup happening in Britain.

Well big business and there are some mega business interests in the UK already pull a lot of the strings in politics there, and most other countries also, and they will bring change to bear if their interests are in danger. I mean Britain as we know it is already fraying at the edges what with Scotland thinking seriously of bailing out and as for N.I. !

BarryD2 · 11-09-2019 4:06pm

Only likely if you subscribe to wishful thinking.

Harry Palmr · 11-09-2019 10:16pm

This was a popular theme of the 70s and early 80s, the Wilson plot, fairly secret army, a very British coup, etc . Plausibly staging one in a country with no history of such occurrences is most unlikely. Big business certainly would not back one, it would much prefer to influence whichever government wins the next GE using the well established strategies. The army would laugh at the idea of being coopeted anyway.

Jim2007 · 12-09-2019 2:50am

realdanbreen wrote: »

What makes you think Great Britain is any more stable than the many other European countries that have had coups or attempted coups in recent years?

You asked the question but so far you have not provided any kind of serious analysis to support it. You bit has well be asking the price of tea in china...

sabat · 12-09-2019 3:59am

A banana republic style coup backed by the military I would price at about 300-1. A more subtle backroom coup in which a moderate Tory is engineered to take over as a sober stabilising presence (maybe Rory "MI6" Stewart) to smooth the path to revoke (possibly via a referendum) is probably happening right now. My dream scenario would be for Mark Francois to appear on the BBC in full military regalia declaring himself generalissimo of the People's Brexit Committee.

Peregrinus · 12-09-2019 4:06am

It depends on what you mean by a "coup".

The UK already has a PM who has never secured an electoral mandate seeking to implement an extremist policy which the people voted against at the last election and which the elected parliament will not support, trying to suspend parliament so that he is not subject to democratic oversight or constraint in doing so, resorting to illegal means to suspend parliament, and threatening simply to flout laws which would restrain him from implementing his chosen policy.

If this happened in, say, Serbia, would you have any hesitation in calling it a coup?

What more would have to happen before you would think that there was at least an attempted coup under way in the UK right now? Serious question.

HalloweenJack · 12-09-2019 6:32am

realdanbreen wrote: »

What makes you think Great Britain is any more stable than the many other European countries that have had coups or attempted coups in recent years?

What coups are you talking about?

Until you specify exactly what you mean by 'coup', your post could be misconstrued as being quite alarmist, frankly. I live in Spain and I'm not sure what 'coup or attempted coups in recent years' you are referring to.

Spain was given as an example in the OP, btw, before anyone says I'm misquoting the poster.

Achasanai · 12-09-2019 6:39am

realdanbreen wrote: »

I doubt if those organising a coup would have plans to install Jeremy Corbyn as PM.

Definitely not, but perhaps they would if he was elected prime minister? There was some interesting reports over the last few years as to the reaction from the army to Corbyn.

realdanbreen · 12-09-2019 8:41am

Jim2007 wrote: »

You asked the question but so far you have not provided any kind of serious analysis to support it. You bit has well be asking the price of tea in china...

I always understood that you provide the serious analysis when you answered the question not when you asked it?

Brian? · 12-09-2019 8:51am

Peregrinus wrote: »

It depends on what you mean by a "coup".

The UK already has a PM who has never secured an electoral mandate seeking to implement an extremist policy which the people voted against at the last election and which the elected parliament will not support, trying to suspend parliament so that he is not subject to democratic oversight or constraint in doing so, resorting to illegal means to suspend parliament, and threatening simply to flout laws which would restrain him from implementing his chosen policy.

If this happened in, say, Serbia, would you have any hesitation in calling it a coup?

What more would have to happen before you would think that there was at least an attempted coup under way in the UK right now? Serious question.

In many ways a coup has already happened. A Prime minister with no electoral mandate just shut down parliament.

It’s normal enough to have a PM who wasn’t the head of the party during the election, but as of the shutdown the government didn’t have a majority in parliament. So essentially a party that represents less than 40% of the electorate just closed the body that’s supposed to enact the will of the electorate.

It may even be legal. The British system is ripe for this kind of nonsense for a few reasons. The main 2 being the lack of a written constitution and the first past the post election system.

So no, there won’t be a military coup. But I’m pretty sure there’s already been a coup by the old Etonians.

realdanbreen · 12-09-2019 8:55am

HalloweenJack wrote: »

What coups are you talking about?

Until you specify exactly what you mean by 'coup', your post could be misconstrued as being quite alarmist, frankly. I live in Spain and I'm not sure what 'coup or attempted coups in recent years' you are referring to.

Spain was given as an example in the OP, btw, before anyone says I'm misquoting the poster.

1981/COLOR][URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_coups_d%27%C3%A9tat_and_coup_attempts&action=edit&section=81"]edit[/URL][COLOR=#54595D

Failed coup in Spain led by Antonio Tejero.
Successful military coup
in Poland led by
Wojciech Jaruzelski
.
- Military coup in Turkey.
Failed military coup
in
Spain
. 1978

1967/COLOR][URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_coups_d%27%C3%A9tat_and_coup_attempts&action=edit&section=65"]edit[/URL][COLOR=#54595D
- Military coup in Greece. Establishment of the Regime of the Colonels.

Military coup

in France. General

Jacques Massu

takes over

Algiers

and threatens to invade Paris unless

Charles de Gaulle

becomes head of state.

There's loads more if you want them.
You say you live in Spain, perhaps it's time you stirred out a bit and learned a bit of the history of the country you live in.

Tabnabs · 12-09-2019 9:05am

Brian? wrote: »

In many ways a coup has already happened. A Prime minister with no electoral mandate just shut down parliament.

It’s normal enough to have a PM who wasn’t the head of the party during the election, but as of the shutdown the government didn’t have a majority in parliament. So essentially a party that represents less than 40% of the electorate just closed the body that’s supposed to enact the will of the electorate.

It may even be legal. The British system is ripe for this kind of nonsense for a few reasons. The main 2 being the lack of a written constitution and the first past the post election system.

So no, there won’t be a military coup. But I’m pretty sure there’s already been a coup by the old Etonians.

I think you have a pretty weak understanding of British politics and their parliamentary system.

It is normal for a session of parliament to last only 12 months and the current session has lasted far longer than that. In fact, it's the longest session of parliament in over 350 years. So it's long overdue for parliament to bring the current session to an end.

The fact that parliament has done everything in its power to ensure a disastrous no-deal brexit cannot be forced onto the country is a sign of a healthy and functioning democracy.

Finally, if Labour and the Lib Dems were so worried about coups and abuse of power, they wouldn't be happily disappearing off for conference week where parliament has to shut anyway to allow the parties to hold their respective conferences (during the same time that the prorogation is happening). A system whereby parliament is shut down for an extended period to let three parties meet with their membership, directly after the long summer recess.

But no, it's Etonian conspiracy as you rightly call it out.

mrbrianj · 12-09-2019 9:17am

Its not an Etonian coup d'etat. Etonian's always had the power and still do.

Has a coup been carried out in the Eton think tank? Maybe so...

Brian? · 12-09-2019 9:22am

Tabnabs wrote: »

I think you have a pretty weak understanding of British politics and their parliamentary system.

If say my understanding is moderate at worst. The British parliamentary system is based on arcane rules and traditions. Traditions which largely amount to nonsense, imo.

It is normal for a session of parliament to last only 12 months and the current session has lasted far longer than that. In fact, it's the longest session of parliament in over 350 years. So it's long overdue for parliament to bring the current session to an end.

Hey, maybe I'm being a bit harsh here. But you don't think the whole system is nonsense? They have to cart a 90 year old woman who is appointed at birth out to restart everything?

Just because something has always been done a certain way, doesn't mean it should be done that way.

The fact that parliament has done everything in its power to ensure a disastrous no-deal brexit cannot be forced onto the country is a sign of a healthy and functioning democracy.

That's a peculiar take on it. The bill to protect against no deal was passed against government wishes, the government aren't even clear they will do anything about it and then parliament is suspended.

Finally, if Labour and the Lib Dems were so worried about coups and abuse of power, they wouldn't be happily disappearing off for conference week where parliament has to shut anyway to allow the parties to hold their respective conferences (during the same time that the prorogation is happening). A system whereby parliament is shut down for an extended period to let three parties meet with their membership, directly after the long summer recess.

But no, it's Etonian conspiracy as you rightly call it out.

Oh that's fine then. They have conferences to go to. More nonsense traditions and loose rules that mean it's almost impossible to get anything done.

Franz Von Peppercorn II · 12-09-2019 9:25am

realdanbreen wrote: »

What makes you think Great Britain is any more stable than the many other European countries that have had coups or attempted coups in recent years?

What European countries are these and what do you mean by recent?

realdanbreen · 12-09-2019 10:02am

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

realdanbreen wrote: »

What makes you think Great Britain is any more stable than the many other European countries that have had coups or attempted coups in recent years?

What European countries are these and what do you mean by recent?

I've listed some above but there's plenty more in the last 50 years or so.

jmayo · 12-09-2019 10:19am

sabat wrote: »

A banana republic style coup backed by the military I would price at about 300-1. A more subtle backroom coup in which a moderate Tory is engineered to take over as a sober stabilising presence (maybe Rory "MI6" Stewart) to smooth the path to revoke (possibly via a referendum) is probably happening right now. My dream scenario would be for Mark Francois to appear on the BBC in full military regalia declaring himself generalissimo of the People's Brexit Committee.

Governments come and go, but there are always the same ones running the show in the background.
And if push came to shove they would dispose, probably in a non lethal way, of troublesome leaders and just install new more benign ones.
The fact that Johnson has gotten there at all is what is quite surprising, as they must have warehouses full of files about his shenanigans.

Then again, putting my cynical hat on, maybe this turmoil is what they want so that they tighten their grip.

The reach of the intelligence services (be they Army, MI5, Police) is quite large.
Also the British military have never really been the mutinous type, the colonials apart, and for a coup to work you need Army.

Franz Von Peppercorn II · 12-09-2019 10:27am

realdanbreen wrote: »

I've listed some above but there's plenty more in the last 50 years or so.

I wouldn’t describe any of those as recent. Spain was coming out of a fascist dictatorship in the 70s

What are the chances of a coup in Britain?

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