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Pattern change could herald a return to very cold weather

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    #32
    NIALL D
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭NIALL D


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Latest ECM actually toys with a retrogression of the high to Greenland, similar to the December cold snap...dunno what the hell is going to happen in a weeks time!

    will be interesting to say the least :)


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    #33
    thorninmyside
    Registered Users Posts: 5 ✭thorninmyside


    Hi, am new on here but check out Accuweather's 15 day forecast. Indicates some snow coming back end January but too early to tell I suppose! Would be great if it came back. :D:D:D

    http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=EUR;IE;EI006;DUBLIN;&metric=1


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    #34
    Duiske
    Registered Users Posts: 3,087 ✭✭✭Duiske


    thorninmyside wrote: »
    Hi, am new on here but check out Accuweather's 15 day forecast. Indicates some snow coming back end January but too early to tell I suppose! Would be great if it came back. :D:D:D

    http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=EUR;IE;EI006;DUBLIN;&metric=1

    Just to add, the following is from Joe B's accuweather blog. Not much info to go on though.
    SATURDAY EVENING

    HOORAY.. I DO SEE SOME COLD AIR COMING BACK

    Calm down, if the pattern is back and forth, it has to get colder again and it will.

    In any case, look for colder to start showing up again a week or so from now. This will not be as long or strong as the cold we went through in December, but enough to remind you that it is winter and it can snow, in case you have forgotten. I wanted to give you a heads up on all this, okay.

    This is for the northwest, still looks warm further south and east.


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    #35
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    All Bastardi is doing is looking at fi in the models,not much more.
    Currently the cold idea in fi has been dropped in favour of the high sticking around and in the case of one of them eventually moving south west not northwest.

    At this rate it will stay bland to mid february at least,no cold and atlantic domination.
    Could all be a different outlook tomorrow,next week or the week after.
    Who knows,models don't.They present something new every day from 96hrs onwards and what use is that exactly...


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    #36
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    I don't know what this winter is going to do to my exams... I'm going to have to start threads ramping up my chances of passing the year whenever the models suggest wet and mild weather on the way!


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    #37
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Latest ECM actually toys with a retrogression of the high to Greenland, similar to the December cold snap...dunno what the hell is going to happen in a weeks time!

    As feared the ecm ditched it and more or less has fallen in line with the GFS. The ecm has been rather disappointing lately, throwing up tasty charts only to ditch them on the next run.
    The way it's going at the moment, Glacier Point looks to be right about a high located near to Ireland and UK going into February. Unfortunately, unless we see a pattern change up north in the next two or three days, it's really hard to see the high doing anything other than sinking south. The best chance now for anything wintry seems to be if energy is able to ride over the top of the high and we end up with brief cold north westerlies. The idea of sustained cold look even more remote at the moment.
    I hope i'll be eating my words in a few days, though:)


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    #38
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    nacho libre wrote: »
    As feared the ecm ditched it and more or less has fallen in line with the GFS. The ecm has been rather disappointing lately, throwing up tasty charts only to ditch them on the next run.
    The way it's going at the moment, Glacier Point looks to be right about a high located near to Ireland and UK going into February. Unfortunately, unless we see a pattern change up north in the next two or three days, it's really hard to see the high doing anything other than sinking south. The best chance now for anything wintry seems to be if energy is able to ride over the top of the high and we get end up with brief cold north westerlies. The idea of sustained cold look even more remote at the moment.
    I hope i'll be eating my words in a few days, though:)

    Looks like it could be a very boring few weeks:(


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    #39
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Musicman2000 wrote: »
    Looks like it could be a very boring few weeks:(

    Yeah it's very disappointing. The snow withdrawal symptoms are really starting to kick in now:( I'm off to the weather picture section to reminisce!


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    #40
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    The mild air is great. Did anyone see the farming forecast on RTE? Soil temperatures in the south and west are at 6 to 7C, grass starts growing at 6C so this mild weather has been phenomenal given the sheer cold we experienced in December.

    The weather is great at the moment.


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    #41
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    It's unfortunate that the rain is bearing down so much on the west coast. Flooding there while there's been insignificant rain this month along the east coast, barring a handful of days!


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    #42
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users Posts: 6,035 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Yeah it's very disappointing. The snow withdrawal symptoms are really starting to kick in now:( I'm off to the weather picture section to reminisce!
    It's tragic to see such a blocking high going to waste, places like Rome and Madrid should see some wintry weather over the next two weeks or probably throughout Feb.
    I remember one of Joe B's winter forecasts a few months ago when he said the real cold would be over Southern Europe while our part of the world and Scandinavia would have above average temps. Looks like that's the pattern for the rest of the winter.
    These big winter anticyclones hang around for weeks, example: the winter of 1991/2 :(


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    #43
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,508 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    So looks like we have our blocking high. Right over us...... Might as well enjoy the benign weather until the next event.


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    #44
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Elmer Blooker wrote: »
    It's tragic to see such a blocking high going to waste, places like Rome and Madrid should see some wintry weather over the next two weeks or probably throughout Feb.
    I remember one of Joe B's winter forecasts a few months ago when he said the real cold would be over Southern Europe while our part of the world and Scandinavia would have above average temps. Looks like that's the pattern for the rest of the winter.
    These big winter anticyclones hang around for weeks, example: the winter of 1991/2 :(

    Ah yeah:( It would seem if we want to experience a winter in Ireland that stays mostly cold and snowy throughout we need to travel back in time to 1947:(


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    #45
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Yeah it's very disappointing. The snow withdrawal symptoms are really starting to kick in now:( I'm off to the weather picture section to reminisce!
    Theres a pile of it in the corner of the courthouse carpark in Arklow if you want some? It's a man made pile from the clearing of the carpark before Xmas but it's still there solid as a rock...and you know what they say about snow that lies around...


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    #46
    bcmf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,679 ✭✭✭bcmf


    Deleted User wrote: »
    ...and you know what they say about snow that lies around...
    errrrr..No!!!


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    #47
    GSF
    Registered Users Posts: 1,655 ✭✭✭GSF


    Min wrote: »
    The mild air is great. Did anyone see the farming forecast on RTE? Soil temperatures in the south and west are at 6 to 7C, grass starts growing at 6C so this mild weather has been phenomenal given the sheer cold we experienced in December.

    The weather is great at the moment.
    Time to get the lawn mower serviced :D


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    #48
    roryc1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    ECM showing a northeasterly at 168z with low 850h temps http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php


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    #49
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    I know in this day and age 168hrs is still very much FI but hey we need a bit of cheering up!

    143662.GIF


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    #50
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Not too cheery Beasterly when theres still a high pressure sitting bang on top of those uppers.
    To be honest,the ecm and all models beyond 96 look to me like they've the high in all sorts of elongated unusual shapes.
    Thats a sure sign to me that they don't know what to do with it.
    Highs like the one thats coming do have a tendency to meander round a long time though.
    A cóck block to the cold so to speak.


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    #51
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Not too cheery Beasterly when theres still a high pressure sitting bang on top of those uppers.
    To be honest,the ecm and all models beyond 96 look to me like they've the high in all sorts of elongated unusual shapes.
    Thats a sure sign to me that they don't know what to do with it.
    Highs like the one thats coming do have a tendency to meander round a long time though.
    A cóck block to the cold so to speak.
    True enough. The biggest hope I have is that it doesn't take much for such a forecasted HP keeping the snow away to change to a nearby HP advecting lots of very cold air from the northeast.


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    #52
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Agreed.
    But at the same time,it's like waiting for 1 of 20 outcomes where that outcome is very rare.
    The north east is the most orgasmic of all cold directions,it's a g spot very hard found :p


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    #53
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭esposito


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Agreed.
    But at the same time,it's like waiting for 1 of 20 outcomes where that outcome is very rare.
    The north east is the most orgasmic of all cold directions,it's a g spot very hard found :p

    Haha, you took the words right out of my mouth.
    North East winds are epic, especially for snow lovers in Dublin!


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    #54
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I think it's safe to say with low heights to the north and the pv set to strengthen in the longer term, the least likelest outcome is the high retrogressing to the northwest like in December. Perhaps the high might move far enough west to allow a proper northerly? although I think the most likely outcome is the high sinks south and open the doors to the atlantic.


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    #55
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Still dreaming of a white eh lads?


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    #56
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭esposito


    mike65 wrote: »
    Still dreaming of a white eh lads?

    Yeah, February seems most likely for more snow, forget the rest of January. Are the sea temps in the irish sea much colder now? If we get an east/north east wind, the showers will inevitably be of snow if the sea temps are low.


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    #57
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Not too cheery Beasterly when theres still a high pressure sitting bang on top of those uppers.
    To be honest,the ecm and all models beyond 96 look to me like they've the high in all sorts of elongated unusual shapes.
    Thats a sure sign to me that they don't know what to do with it.
    Highs like the one thats coming do have a tendency to meander round a long time though.
    A cóck block to the cold so to speak.

    I know that chart will have no showers to speak of it probably wont verify anyway but i was just trying to lighten the mood:(


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    #58
    Flan_Da_Man125
    Registered Users Posts: 38 ✭Flan_Da_Man125


    its starting to annoy me how much the models keep changing!! there all over the place. there no good outside of 90h so really anything can happen still. february is usually irelands most likely month for snow. i still feel there is one more snow day left. just tryna lighten the mood also haha :D


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    #59
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    We will get more snow.

    After the snow of November and December and to a much lesser extent early January, it is nice to have a break from it.
    Winter is far from being over.


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    #60
    shoes34
    Registered Users Posts: 620 ✭✭✭shoes34


    Min wrote: »
    We will get more snow.

    After the snow of November and December and to a much lesser extent early January, it is nice to have a break from it.
    Winter is far from being over.


    when is this going to occur - I hope its not as bad as December.


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    #61
    Mobhi1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,685 ✭✭✭Mobhi1


    Just because we were spoiled in December probably doesn't mean we'll get any more proper winter weather. At this stage it looks like we're back to normal winter for the rest of the period, unfortunately. It's not like in December where any breeze off the sea or any showers that came gave snow - it seems more like normal where we're constantly looking for any little change that might "possibly" give us something.


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