Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi all,
Vanilla are planning an update to the site on April 24th (next Wednesday). It is a major PHP8 update which is expected to boost performance across the site. The site will be down from 7pm and it is expected to take about an hour to complete. We appreciate your patience during the update.
Thanks all.

Significant Snow risk - Monday 29th/Tuesday 30th

Options
13567…12

Comments

  • Options
    #62
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    darkman2 wrote: »
    All I will say is that DE and Su Campu are not reading the charts properly in my view. We don't need sub -7 850 temps in a frontal situation for snow. We need sub -4C. Also other factors like evaporative cooling come into play esspecially at this time of year. My forecast is that most places (not all) will see snow at some stage and there is a risk of some very heavy snow for a time on Tuesday in the North and East in particular. Disruption is a real possibility on Tuesday in these areas. The forecast has not changed since the OP. It is still overnight Monday and Tuesday when the risk is.

    yea cant they see that the maxes are very low like 2c... tomorrow.. so most of the time its bound to be snow... i agree with you.


  • Options
    #63
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    What sort of low night tempertures are we looking at for this week? -4 / -5?
    Eagle said it would be very severe frosts.
    Im not too bothered if we get snow or not , cold weather will be nice for a change :P
    By the way there was a hard frost last night here in donegal , I was suprised.


  • Options
    #64
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Main problem is likely to be snow. But don't listen to me whatever you do.
    So ME are wrong aswell? Stop posting the same GFS chart every time....there are other models too you know. GFS has a cold bias in these situations, that chart you posted is utter rubbish IMO, it'll never turn out as it suggests.

    darkman2 wrote: »
    All I will say is that DE and Su Campu are not reading the charts properly in my view. We don't need sub -7 850 temps in a frontal situation for snow. We need sub -4C. Also other factors like evaporative cooling come into play esspecially at this time of year. My forecast is that most places (not all) will see snow at some stage and there is a risk of some very heavy snow for a time on Tuesday in the North and East in particular. Disruption is a real possibility on Tuesday in these areas. The forecast has not changed since the OP. It is still overnight Monday and Tuesday when the risk is.

    I completely disagree. Even in January, -4C 850s couldn't cut it, so there's no chance now. Evaporative cooling won't be much of a factor given the strong winds present.

    I say that if we see snow reports from even one ME station this week then I'll be surprised.


  • Options
    #65
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    owenc wrote: »
    yea cant they see that the maxes are very low like 2c... tomorrow.. so most of the time its bound to be snow... i agree with you.

    Again, the GFS max temps are notoriously underestimated in times of solar heating, I have found adding 2-3°C to them is usually what it turns out to be.


  • Options
    #66
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,322 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    There wont be much solar heating in overcast, heavy precip conditions though.
    I would be surprised if anywhere in the Republic <200 metres sees any snow truth be told.
    I am expecting some sleety stuff here though by the time it starts to clear, might even have some really wet snow settling here.
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #67
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    ummmmm tis an interesting one this.
    In my view as it stands i would say rain turning to wet snow by tuesday morning as dewpoints are then more on the money.
    I see nothing wrong with thread title because there simply is a significant snow risk,and risk being the key word here.
    Im not too excited about this yet though.
    But i do love surprises and we may get one however don't be building your hopes up too much.Alot can change overnight.


  • Options
    #68
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Supercell wrote: »
    There wont be much solar heating in overcast, heavy precip conditions though.
    I would be surprised if anywhere in the Republic <200 metres sees any snow truth be told.
    I am expecting some sleety stuff here though by the time it starts to clear, might even have some really wet snow settling here.

    The coldest air will move in after the front moves away eastwards, leaving a clear showery setup. That's where I meant solar heating.

    For me, the main precip band will be too warm for snow at low levels. Mountains maybe, but not below 200m, as you rightly stated.


  • Options
    #69
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    Su Campu wrote: »
    So ME are wrong aswell? Stop posting the same GFS chart every time....there are other models too you know. GFS has a cold bias in these situations, that chart you posted is utter rubbish IMO, it'll never turn out as it suggests.




    I completely disagree. Even in January, -4C 850s couldn't cut it, so there's no chance now. Evaporative cooling won't be much of a factor given the strong winds present.

    I say that if we see snow reports from even one ME station this week then I'll be surprised.

    err!!! we will just have to wait to tomorrow as you wont listen to me or that other boy (forget name)... in overcast skies the temp dosnt rise much... and itll be raining aswell! and yes the met ie are always wrong they just say hill snow to cover their back... didnt you look at met office they have warning out for hill snow and possible snow down at low levels they also say tomorrows max will be 5c which means the majority of ni will be below that so itll be at least 4c.. and they say snow from tuesday.


  • Options
    #70
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    owenc wrote: »
    err!!! we will just have to wait to tomorrow as you wont listen to me or that other boy (forget name)... in overcast skies the temp dosnt rise much... and itll be raining aswell! and yes the met ie are always wrong they just say hill snow to cover their back... didnt you look at met office they have warning out for hill snow and possible snow down at low levels they also say tomorrows max will be 5c which means the majority of ni will be below that so itll be at least 4c.. and they say snow from tuesday.

    Look, I am listening to you, I just don't agree with you! ;)

    Let's wait and see how things pan out, and we'll readjourn back here Wednesday for a post mortem! :D


  • Options
    #71
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Well here's my attempt at what will happen.
    Monday night heavy rain will turn to snow in many areas esp towards Tuesday morning. Lying snow looks very possible for the North and East on Tuesday, away from city areas where it will just be wet. Disruption is possible on Tuesday as it looks like being very slow to clear from the NorthEast.
    The main downside to snow at this time of year as it will thaw rapidly once it dries up, though it should lie at night


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #72
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    met.ie
    28 March 2010 11:45

    Tomorrow will be a cold, wet day with heavy falls of rain possibly leading to some localised flooding, especially in parts of the east and south. The rain may turn to sleet or even snow in places later. The snow initially confined mainly to high ground, but likely in some low lying areas also during Monday evening and night. Highest temperatures only reaching 3 to 8 degrees.


    Headline : Very cold, unsettled and often wintry for the rest of the week, with some sleet or snow in places, especially so over high ground, but some at lower levels too. Frost and ice expected at night also. Monday night will see some further heavy rain in most parts of the country with some flooding in more southern areas. But with very low temperatures, this rain will turn more and more to sleet and snow, with some significant accumulations of snow on high ground. Some snow cover is also likely at lower levels before the night is over. But Northwestern coastal fringes will have somewhat clearer weather with just scattered wintry showers. Windy with stiff northerly winds, giving a significant wind chill, and with a risk of some drifting on high ground. The eastern half of the country will have further rain, sleet and snow on Tuesday and Tuesday night with further accumulations of snow in places, especially so on mountains. But much of Connacht, Munster and west Ulster will have a brighter day on Tuesday, with sunny spells and occasional showers of rain, hail or sleet, with snow over mountains. Cold overnight with frost and ice. Wednesday and Thursday will be cold days. Some bright or sunny spells, but occasional wintry showers also, some falling as snow, mainly in the west and north of the country. Some thunder also. Strong and gusty northwesterly winds on Wednesday, but these should moderate a little during Thursday. Present indications suggest that it will remain cold and changeable over the Easter weekend.


  • Options
    #73
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Well here's my attempt at what will happen.
    Monday night heavy rain will turn to snow in many areas esp towards Tuesday morning. Lying snow looks very possible for the North and East on Tuesday, away from city areas where it will just be wet. Disruption is possible on Tuesday as it looks like being very slow to clear from the NorthEast.
    The main downside to snow at this time of year as it will thaw rapidly once it dries up, though it should lie at night

    yep agree with you there the met office actually shows all that you have posted... sleet near end of day then snow... its tomorrow so we shall things go... have the showers started to turn wintry in northern scotland yet? colder uppers..


  • Options
    #74
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Su Campu wrote: »
    The coldest air will move in after the front moves away eastwards, leaving a clear showery setup. That's where I meant solar heating.

    For me, the main precip band will be too warm for snow at low levels. Mountains maybe, but not below 200m, as you rightly stated.


    perhaps with the main band, yes.
    however, I remain fairly confident the north and north west will see snow showers at lower levels during midweek - mainly sleet by day, with snow being confined to after dark.


  • Options
    #75
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    nacho libre wrote: »
    met.ie
    28 March 2010 11:45

    Tomorrow will be a cold, wet day with heavy falls of rain possibly leading to some localised flooding, especially in parts of the east and south. The rain may turn to sleet or even snow in places later. The snow initially confined mainly to high ground, but likely in some low lying areas also during Monday evening and night. Highest temperatures only reaching 3 to 8 degrees.


    Headline : Very cold, unsettled and often wintry for the rest of the week, with some sleet or snow in places, especially so over high ground, but some at lower levels too. Frost and ice expected at night also. Monday night will see some further heavy rain in most parts of the country with some flooding in more southern areas. But with very low temperatures, this rain will turn more and more to sleet and snow, with some significant accumulations of snow on high ground. Some snow cover is also likely at lower levels before the night is over. But Northwestern coastal fringes will have somewhat clearer weather with just scattered wintry showers. Windy with stiff northerly winds, giving a significant wind chill, and with a risk of some drifting on high ground. The eastern half of the country will have further rain, sleet and snow on Tuesday and Tuesday night with further accumulations of snow in places, especially so on mountains. But much of Connacht, Munster and west Ulster will have a brighter day on Tuesday, with sunny spells and occasional showers of rain, hail or sleet, with snow over mountains. Cold overnight with frost and ice. Wednesday and Thursday will be cold days. Some bright or sunny spells, but occasional wintry showers also, some falling as snow, mainly in the west and north of the country. Some thunder also. Strong and gusty northwesterly winds on Wednesday, but these should moderate a little during Thursday. Present indications suggest that it will remain cold and changeable over the Easter weekend.

    There you go theyve updated it too.. now they are saying that snow will get to low levels.. and may lay.. and 3c maxes both monday and tuesday! If the temps are this cold and the band is heavy id say itll come down as snow and it wouldnt take too long to lie either.. but the temps need to drop.


  • Options
    #76
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    I will say this much - there's a chance of a polar low forming between us and Iceland over the next two days as sub -40°C pool drifts southwestards. Don't think it would reach us but would be nice to see one form.

    00_UKMet_HT500_PSL_30_42f.gif


    00_UKMet_HW300_PSLTHETAAE850_48_72f.gif


  • Options
    #77
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Im going to go on my own record on this board tbh as much as there is some substance in what has been said against snow over the next couple of days. I am very confident there will be snow Monday night and Tuesday at low levels and I do expect at least some disruption through Tuesday in the North and East in particular with snow also for a time Tuesday in the midlands and parts of the West and South away from windward coasts.


    I know there are some here saying stuff like it won't snow and all the rest of it. Suffice to say I think they are wrong as things stand. Of course we have been in this situation time and time again and it is always the same outcome. I am very confident about this forecast. Will update the forecast with 12z charts later.


  • Options
    #78
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Im going to go on my own record on this board tbh as much as there is some substance in what has been said against snow over the next couple of days. I am very confident there will be snow Monday night and Tuesday at low levels and I do expect at least some disruption through Tuesday in the North and East in particular with snow also for a time Tuesday in the midlands and parts of the West and South away from windward coasts.


    I know there are some here saying stuff like it won't snow and all the rest of it. Suffice to say I think they are wrong as things stand. Of course we have been in this situation time and time again and it is always the same outcome. I am very confident about this forecast. Will update the forecast with 12z charts later.
    You've been vociferous in not just defending your own forecast, but in criticising the forecasts of some other people here in this thread. I actually regard DE's and Su Campu's forecasts (or their reading of them, I should say) as being the ones which have verified most overall over the last 4 months. I think it's fair to express your own opinion and you have attempted to substantiate it, so that's fair enough. But if your forecast turns out to be wrong, you really would want to hold your hands up and apologise for the earlier criticisms you levelled at other respected commentators' forecasts here IMO.

    More specifically, I cannot see how, in a situation which is clearly dependent on tight margins pressure and temperature-wise, you could say that you are very confident in one particular outcome. It is hard to treat such a statement with credibility and in my 2 cent's worth of an opinion, it just serves to risk the respect that future forecasts will be treated with. I know that if I made an almost "outlandish" forecast compared to other posters and I got it wrong, I'd totally expect for my forecasts not to be taken as seriously in the future.


  • Options
    #79
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Im going to go on my own record on this board tbh as much as there is some substance in what has been said against snow over the next couple of days. I am very confident there will be snow Monday night and Tuesday at low levels and I do expect at least some disruption through Tuesday in the North and East in particular with snow also for a time Tuesday in the midlands and parts of the West and South away from windward coasts.


    I know there are some here saying stuff like it won't snow and all the rest of it. Suffice to say I think they are wrong as things stand. Of course we have been in this situation time and time again and it is always the same outcome. I am very confident about this forecast. Will update the forecast with 12z charts later.

    I go back to my own forecast 3 days ago when this potential started showing:

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=65087205&postcount=9

    and I think it still stands. I certainly am not saying that it won't snow, but any snow is likely to be confined to high ground. Yes, it may snow at lower levels (briefly and wettly) as the occlusion pulls away being undercut by cooler air from the north, but I cannot see it causing as much disruption as you claim.

    What I am more concerned about is that the possibility of prolonged rainfall and as a result, possible flooding, is of higher importance to be honest. This is what is likely to be the big feature over the next 48-72 hours, and disruption across the country is more likely from rainfall than snow. I am not sure why you are ignoring this.


  • Options
    #80
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    Sexy Jean Byrne agrees with darkman2

    Met Eireann: Headline : Very cold, unsettled and often wintry for the rest of the week, with some sleet or snow in places, especially so over high ground, but some at lower levels too.


  • Options
    #81
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Min wrote: »
    Sexy Jean Byrne agrees with darkman2

    Met Eireann: Headline : Very cold, unsettled and often wintry for the rest of the week, with some sleet or snow in places, especially so over high ground, but some at lower levels too.

    i've seen this before;)

    well min i hope she is right for your sake:p


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #82
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    nacho libre wrote: »
    i've seen this before;)

    well min i hope she is right for your sake:p

    lol I'm sure you do :P

    especially this bit...."this rain will turn more and more to sleet and snow, with some significant accumulations of snow on high ground. Some snow cover is also likely at lower levels before the night is over.

    Come on Spring, you're just too slow, my daffodils haven't even flowered yet.


  • Options
    #83
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The models show heavy precip as late as Wed 12z over eastern Ireland and this leads me to speculate that there could be some heavy accumulations of snow overnight Tuesday-Wednesday at lower elevations in Ulster and Leinster. By heavy I mean 5-10 cms but I do think it will be hit or miss with some places getting mostly rain in the mix.

    Let's put it this way, I don't think anyone should be surprised to find heavy snow falling and even accumulating in this situation. But I would be surprised if everyone (even in the greater Dublin area to make this more relevant) saw heavy snowfall.

    Naturally it will tend to respond to elevation and urban heat island to some extent.

    In the earlier phases of the event the snow line is going to be up fairly high at first and will be edging down from about 350m to 100m all day Tuesday, so it's going to be a case of more and more reports of snow coming in as we get towards Tuesday evening.

    High tides on Monday night and possibly Tuesday late morning will be running a few feet above normal on the east coast with the combination of wind direction and pressure gradient interacting with the astronomical high tides near full moon. Storm surge might be too strong a term, but it may be an interesting thing to monitor. (full moon is night of 29th-30th, lunar perigee happened earlier today)


  • Options
    #84
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    My wife swears by the BBC five day forecast.

    I know its only computer generated however it does indicate colder conditions for the Dublin area in the coming days........

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/31

    Derek


  • Options
    #85
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,877 ✭✭✭pauldry


    It does seem that our best chance of seeing any snow stick is at night because the days will be less cold so surely it would seem that Tuesday morning is the pivotal moment for snow watchers. Lets watch this space.


  • Options
    #86
    jos28
    Registered Users Posts: 7,189 ✭✭✭jos28


    Could you of you knowledgeable meteorologists please give me some hope for Good Friday. I have a BIG birthday party planned. It looks like there will be a bigger crowd than I expected (nothing else to do on Good Friday, I suppose). Is there any hope we might be able to use the tables and stuff that we set up in the garden yesterday. I'm in Dublin, is the forecast really all doom and gloom?


  • Options
    #87
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    it looks as if the bulk of the shower activity will be in the north and north west by Friday. Dublin should be mostly fine but there might be the odd passing shower.


  • Options
    #88
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Great, now Dublin radar's acting up, with a whole sector missing from west of Wexford.

    108996.jpg


  • Options
    #89
    jos28
    Registered Users Posts: 7,189 ✭✭✭jos28


    nacho libre wrote: »
    it looks as if the bulk of the shower activity will be in the north and north west by Friday. Dublin should be mostly fine but there might be the odd passing shower.

    Thanks Nacho, that's reassuring. I can cope with the odd shower. Just so long as its not pi**ing down all day.


  • Options
    #90
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Have you noticed aswell the regular anaprop now from the Dublin radar against the northern section of the dublin mountains covering most of south sublin actually.

    The maintainence budget has really gone to pot in this recession.
    Highly highly dangerous.

    On topic-Why light on DM 2? he's been wrong before expressing confidence too far out but there is a consistency in model output now so close to the event that is pretty much on his side.
    Nature can change that.
    I think it's wrong to call a thing too early and there have been 3 or 4 recent threads by dm2 illustrating why it's wrong to be doing that.

    Unfortunately,I have to say there is a significant risk of snow into tuesday especially on high ground but not exclusively so.
    The risk is a fact and if mother nature decides to let it fall in an urban area or near a motorway,there may well be disruption.
    Ffs an inch causes chaos in Ireland.
    It doesn't take long for an inch to come down even if the conditions bringing it are marginal.
    What matters is if it falls.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #91
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Nobody is buzzing off DM2. He is, however, calling other members interpretations of what the models are showing 'wrong'. Maybe he is right, but there it still a lot of rain forecast...:cool:

    Even Gerry Murphy highlighted this on the 9.25pm forecast tonight.


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement