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Heavy Snow at times next week especially after midweek
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for frig sake didnt anyone see that image it said 2c maxes and -9c mins how is there going to be rain in that!!!!! and most of the time going by that it will probably be below 0c as we are usually alot colder than those temps (if it stays like that!).... why do people always make the south sound like the whole country is getting the same weather as them !
They don't. They always make the east sound like the whole country
. I would be wary of using the temp forecasts on the site you posted Owenc. Based on the GFS and all that.... 0 -
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Deep Easterly wrote: »They don't. They always make the east sound like the whole country. I would be wary of using the temp forecasts on the site you posted Owenc. Based on the GFS and all that....
yes but at least its something to prove to them.. because they seem to think thats it going to be 9c and raining the whole time.. and i do think its possible to get about -11c here as we got -7c last week when -4c was forecasted and that is proof that we get far colder than those forecasts.0 -
yes but at least its something to prove to them.. because they seem to think thats it going to be 9c and raining the whole time.. and i do think its possible to get about -11c here as we got -7c last week when -4c was forecasted and that is proof that we get far colder than those forecasts.
yr.no have cold rain down for Coleraine:
http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/Northern_Ireland/Coleraine~2652586/detailed_long.html
A more trustworthy forecast source Owenc for your area.0 -
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Deep Easterly wrote: »yr.no have cold rain down for Coleraine:
http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/Northern_Ireland/Coleraine~2652586/detailed_long.html
That old site is always wrong! always!0 -
[
http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/Northern_Ireland/Coleraine~2652586/detailed_long.html
That old site is always wrong! always!
Well excuse me!
Owenc, no model forecast will ever be 100% right, but in terms of reliabilty, I would go with that one. Knowledge of local climate of course is essential when using any model output, as computer generated outputs only give a rough guidence to the weather forecast in ones particular area or on a more national/international basis. I would be very surpirsed if you got down to -9c this week. That is more likely to happen here in Galway than up there, and I doubt it will even come close to that here.
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Deep Easterly wrote: »Well excuse me!
Owenc, no model forecast will ever be 100% right, but in terms of reliabilty, I would go with that one. Knowledge of local climate of course is essential when using any model output, as computer generated outputs only give a rough guidence to the weather forecast in ones particular area or on a more national/international basis. I would be very surpirsed if you got down to -9c this week. That is more likely to happen here in Galway than up there, and I doubt it will even come close to that here.
erm well we got -7c the other night.. stop downgrading things because your area dosnt get those temperatures i hate the way people on here wont beleive how much snow we got and how cold it got i just wish someone from nearby was on this forum!0 -
erm well we got -7c the other night.. stop downgrading things because your area dosnt get those temperatures i hate the way people on here wont beleive how much snow we got and how cold it got i just wish someone from nearby was on this forum!
Yes Owenc, we do get those sort of temperatures and lower, and I am certain more frequently than you do. I am not downgrading at all, just trying to be realistic. I am not doubting at all the amount of snow you got, in fact, I would be surprised if you didn't recieve what you say you recieved.
Also, people on here would have a lot more time for you if you tried having a bit of manners and politness. It costs nothing. 0 -
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Deep Easterly wrote: »Yes Owenc, we do get those sort of temperatures and lower, and I am certain more frequently than you do. I am not downgrading at all, just trying to be realistic. I am not doubting at all the amount of snow you got, in fact, I would be surprised if you didn't recieve what you say you recieved.
Also, people on here would have a lot more time for you if you tried having a bit of manners and politness. It costs nothing.
No people from other areas were telling me during the cold spell that i couldnt have got 2 foot on the hill behind me which is 385m at highest and i couldnt have got down to -13c one night..0 -
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Afternoon Everyone
Introduction
As we prepare to enter another week that will contain below average temperatures, it's interesting to take a look at the synoptic evolution & as to what may develop over the coming medium term. Before discussing all of the associated background signals, it is noteworthy that in the next 7 Days, it is quite likely that some exceptionally deep cold pooling, with 850mb temperatures of -15 and below will develop across Scandinavia & to the Northeast. Should cold troughing develop just south of the UK & Ireland, then there is a definite risk of this deep cold being advected towards us quite rapidly. Some of the coldest air of the entire Winter season is about to develop over this region & it's something to watch going forward.
These developments are a direct response to the Major Warming event that has taken place at the 30mb level. Tropospheric developments have manifested in the form of extreme discontinuous High Latitude blocking to the Northwest & Variable North. Going forward, there are increasing signs of even more sustained blocking all across the variable North.
To an extent, developments during the coming week are similar to those which took place during the last week of December 2009. From Day 1 - Day 3, the country will be enveloped in an RPM (Returning Polar Maritime) airmass. From Day 3 onwards, the flow will become more Polar Maritime in nature, increasing the risk of wintry precipitation, with a subsequent fall in 850mb temperatures.
Synoptic Evolution
At 09.30 Hrs this morning, a Polar Trough of 1005mb is forming to the East of Greenland. A largescale blocking High of 1025mb is currently retrograding towards Greenland. An increasingly unstable pattern begins to develop across Ireland much later in the Day, with frontal systems beginning to move down across the country from the North/Northwest.
This Polar Trough will make significant southward progress over the coming 36 Hours & will be centred just north of Scotland at 12 Hrs, Monday. An RPM airflow will cover Ireland, with shower activity developing at times, particularly across more Northern areas.
During Tuesday, this trough will make even further southward progress, becoming centred just off the Northwest coast of the country. Conditions will become increasingly cyclonic at this point, with rain becoming more widespread later in the day. Sleet is possible over high ground in particular, especially overnight on Tuesday.
Conditions will remain unsettled during Wednesday & Thursday as this feature becomes centred just to the South of the country, before transferring gradually Eastwards. As it begins tracks Eastwards, rather colder air will begin to make inroads across the country from the North. Frosts could well become increasingly sharp to severe again at night time, with ice formation after rainfall. There is a low risk of back edge snowfall across Northern areas in particular, later on Wednesday & into Thursday. During both of these days, there is an increasing risk of snowfall across high ground in particular.
Looking further ahead towards the weekend & there are certainly signs towards a continuation of cold conditions, perhaps even colder in nature with a low risk at the moment of Easterly/Northeasterly winds developing as a series of undercutting lows form to the south. Confidence is high in the general pattern up to Friday, at which time the main trough feature will have filled to leave slack, cold conditions across the country. Confidence is generally much lower thereafter.
ECMWF 00Z 14/02 - T+216
ECMWF 00Z 14/02 - T+240
Summary
In summary then, rather cold to at times cold conditions persisting through the coming week. Temperatures generally below average throughout, with an increasing risk of overnight sharp to severe frosts & icy stretches from Day 3/4 onwards, with a risk of precipitation increasingly wintry in nature. Towards the weekend, confidence is much lower, with a general signal for the persistence of cold & a low risk of even colder conditions returning from the East/Northeast. There is also a low risk of conditions turning less cold from the Southwest, however signals generally favour a cold pattern, approximately 60:40, at the present time.
SA 0 -
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Excellent as usual, their could be slight changes as we move through the week but you have being bang on all winter.Snowaddict wrote: »Afternoon Everyone
Introduction
As we prepare to enter another week that will contain below average temperatures, it's interesting to take a look at the synoptic evolution & as to what may develop over the coming medium term. Before discussing all of the associated background signals, it is noteworthy that in the next 7 Days, it is quite likely that some exceptionally deep cold pooling, with 850mb temperatures of -15 and below will develop across Scandinavia & to the Northeast. Should cold troughing develop just south of the UK & Ireland, then there is a definite risk of this deep cold being advected towards us quite rapidly. Some of the coldest air of the entire Winter season is about to develop over this region & it's something to watch going forward.
These developments are a direct response to the Major Warming event that has taken place at the 30mb level. Tropospheric developments have manifested in the form of extreme discontinuous High Latitude blocking to the Northwest & Variable North. Going forward, there are increasing signs of even more sustained blocking all across the variable North.
To an extent, developments during the coming week are similar to those which took place during the last week of December 2009. From Day 1 - Day 3, the country will be enveloped in an RPM (Returning Polar Maritime) airmass. From Day 3 onwards, the flow will become more Polar Maritime in nature, increasing the risk of wintry precipitation, with a subsequent fall in 850mb temperatures.
Synoptic Evolution
At 09.30 Hrs this morning, a Polar Trough of 1005mb is forming to the East of Greenland. A largescale blocking High of 1025mb is currently retrograding towards Greenland. An increasingly unstable pattern begins to develop across Ireland much later in the Day, with frontal systems beginning to move down across the country from the North/Northwest.
This Polar Trough will make significant southward progress over the coming 36 Hours & will be centred just north of Scotland at 12 Hrs, Monday. An RPM airflow will cover Ireland, with shower activity developing at times, particularly across more Northern areas.
During Tuesday, this trough will make even further southward progress, becoming centred just off the Northwest coast of the country. Conditions will become increasingly cyclonic at this point, with rain becoming more widespread later in the day. Sleet is possible over high ground in particular, especially overnight on Tuesday.
Conditions will remain unsettled during Wednesday & Thursday as this feature becomes centred just to the South of the country, before transferring gradually Eastwards. As it begins tracks Eastwards, rather colder air will begin to make inroads across the country from the North. Frosts could well become increasingly sharp to severe again at night time, with ice formation after rainfall. There is a low risk of back edge snowfall across Northern areas in particular, later on Wednesday & into Thursday. During both of these days, there is an increasing risk of snowfall across high ground in particular.
Looking further ahead towards the weekend & there are certainly signs towards a continuation of cold conditions, perhaps even colder in nature with a low risk at the moment of Easterly/Northeasterly winds developing as a series of undercutting lows form to the south. Confidence is high in the general pattern up to Friday, at which time the main trough feature will have filled to leave slack, cold conditions across the country. Confidence is generally much lower thereafter.
ECMWF 00Z 14/02 - T+216
ECMWF 00Z 14/02 - T+240
Summary
In summary then, rather cold to at times cold conditions persisting through the coming week. Temperatures generally below average throughout, with an increasing risk of overnight sharp to severe frosts & icy stretches from Day 3/4 onwards, with a risk of precipitation increasingly wintry in nature. Towards the weekend, confidence is much lower, with a general signal for the persistence of cold & a low risk of even colder conditions returning from the East/Northeast. There is also a low risk of conditions turning less cold from the Southwest, however signals generally favour a cold pattern, approximately 60:40, at the present time.
SA0 -
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This discussion has been closed.
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