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Cold Spell & Snowfall Discussion Part 2 (Eagle says Polar Low) Wednesday/Thursday

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Comments

  • #302
    revr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 52 ✭✭revr


    irish1967 wrote: »
    And some even know where in Donegal !;)

    do you know redcastle hotel - I go every year - always great weather round those parts tho I play on the golf course!


  • #303
    typhooner
    Closed Accounts Posts: 107 ✭✭typhooner


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Have you noticed ever since Copenhagen, the whole world has been freezing its collective arse off?

    I'm declaring unilateral victory over global warming, start the car !!!

    Anyway, update from the 18z GFS (everyone's favourite drunk, so to speak).

    It does show a slight upgrade to snowfall potential in Ireland tomorrow, my earlier forecast is hereby tweaked to suggest 4-6 cm potential in a rather ragged zone that includes basically any county that does not touch salt water (for more than ten miles, you know who you are, even if I don't).

    There could even be some weak sea effect in the southeast again due to a gradual turning of winds from N to E during the day. And when we're dealing with "weak" snowfall in very cold conditions, the snow to water ratio may jump up and surprise us with a deep mantle of very fluffy snow, sometimes, it's not as simple as 2 mm of rain equals 2 cm of snow if the ratio is 20 or 30 to 1, then 2 mm of rain equals 4 or 6 cms of snow.

    There was no upgrade to the Sunday situation from what I could see, perhaps a slight downgrade to it.

    People are bound to notice some very low overnight readings over fresh snow cover that is radiating like mad -- at your latitude in Canada or continental Europe, even central England, with the kind of upper temperature dynamics now in place, it could easily fall well below -20 C on a night with clear sky conditions given 5-10 cms of fresh snow cover, it totally insulates the ground below from affecting the low-level atmosphere, so it's basically a question of how much moderation the surrounding seas might have, because essentially the conditions are there for rapid radiational cooling and a few -12 to -15 readings next few nights would not surprise me at all. They might not show up at official weather stations, but some in NI are already well down there. Calm winds help too, because then slightly milder air from another location can't blow in to replace the very cold air over your snow cover.

    why speak in Riddles or maybe i is fick


  • #304
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    18Z NOGAPS gives what looks like the mother of all snowfests. If snow showers brought Dublin to a hault today, this would be The Day After Tomorrow...

    nogaps-2-90.png?06-23


    But its NOGAPS....;)


  • #305
    jenzz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 986 ✭✭✭jenzz


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Have you noticed ever since Copenhagen, the whole world has been freezing its collective arse off?

    I'm declaring unilateral victory over global warming, start the car !!!

    Anyway, update from the 18z GFS (everyone's favourite drunk, so to speak).

    It does show a slight upgrade to snowfall potential in Ireland tomorrow, my earlier forecast is hereby tweaked to suggest 4-6 cm potential in a rather ragged zone that includes basically any county that does not touch salt water (for more than ten miles, you know who you are, even if I don't).

    There could even be some weak sea effect in the southeast again due to a gradual turning of winds from N to E during the day. And when we're dealing with "weak" snowfall in very cold conditions, the snow to water ratio may jump up and surprise us with a deep mantle of very fluffy snow, sometimes, it's not as simple as 2 mm of rain equals 2 cm of snow if the ratio is 20 or 30 to 1, then 2 mm of rain equals 4 or 6 cms of snow.

    There was no upgrade to the Sunday situation from what I could see, perhaps a slight downgrade to it.

    People are bound to notice some very low overnight readings over fresh snow cover that is radiating like mad -- at your latitude in Canada or continental Europe, even central England, with the kind of upper temperature dynamics now in place, it could easily fall well below -20 C on a night with clear sky conditions given 5-10 cms of fresh snow cover, it totally insulates the ground below from affecting the low-level atmosphere, so it's basically a question of how much moderation the surrounding seas might have, because essentially the conditions are there for rapid radiational cooling and a few -12 to -15 readings next few nights would not surprise me at all. They might not show up at official weather stations, but some in NI are already well down there. Calm winds help too, because then slightly milder air from another location can't blow in to replace the very cold air over your snow cover.

    Hey MT

    Thanks so m,uch for such accurrate forscasts. Quick Q.... My local station is down on the beach. Their snow melted. I still have 10cm about 1mile up the road & 60m ASL. They are reading -.3. DP-4.5. What sort of temp are we looking at ?


  • #306
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    jenzz wrote: »
    Everyone in weather knows Pangea is donegal...............:)

    Does he/she know how to update their profile?


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  • #307
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    irish1967 wrote: »
    And some even know where in Donegal !;)

    Ok i admit 1967 has the dirt , be quiet lol
    :D
    nacho libre wrote: »
    how much exactly has accumulated out of that shower. by the way did you see that picture on the news of the frozen lake near ballybofey? i was up there last week and like an idiot forgot to bring my camera. Benbulben also looked spectacular.
    Yes i seen the pic of the lake ,very nice indeed! Imagine people going on the quads on it lol
    I suppose gave us around an inch of snow , it was nice and not expected at all.


  • #308
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Have you noticed ever since Copenhagen, the whole world has been freezing its collective arse off?

    I'm declaring unilateral victory over global warming, start the car !!!

    Anyway, update from the 18z GFS (everyone's favourite drunk, so to speak).

    It does show a slight upgrade to snowfall potential in Ireland tomorrow, my earlier forecast is hereby tweaked to suggest 4-6 cm potential in a rather ragged zone that includes basically any county that does not touch salt water (for more than ten miles, you know who you are, even if I don't).

    There could even be some weak sea effect in the southeast again due to a gradual turning of winds from N to E during the day. And when we're dealing with "weak" snowfall in very cold conditions, the snow to water ratio may jump up and surprise us with a deep mantle of very fluffy snow, sometimes, it's not as simple as 2 mm of rain equals 2 cm of snow if the ratio is 20 or 30 to 1, then 2 mm of rain equals 4 or 6 cms of snow.

    There was no upgrade to the Sunday situation from what I could see, perhaps a slight downgrade to it.

    People are bound to notice some very low overnight readings over fresh snow cover that is radiating like mad -- at your latitude in Canada or continental Europe, even central England, with the kind of upper temperature dynamics now in place, it could easily fall well below -20 C on a night with clear sky conditions given 5-10 cms of fresh snow cover, it totally insulates the ground below from affecting the low-level atmosphere, so it's basically a question of how much moderation the surrounding seas might have, because essentially the conditions are there for rapid radiational cooling and a few -12 to -15 readings next few nights would not surprise me at all. They might not show up at official weather stations, but some in NI are already well down there. Calm winds help too, because then slightly milder air from another location can't blow in to replace the very cold air over your snow cover.

    no offense intended but it would be great if you were both right and wrong in this forecast


  • #309
    billy the squid
    Registered Users Posts: 12,811 ✭✭✭✭billy the squid


    jenzz wrote: »
    Hey MT

    Thanks so m,uch for such accurrate forscasts. Quick Q.... My local station is down on the beach. Their snow melted. I still have 10cm about 1mile up the road & 60m ASL. They are reading -.3. DP-4.5. What sort of temp are we looking at ?

    Their snow melting might have to do with the presence of salt rather than the tempreture.


  • #310
    poolboy
    Registered Users Posts: 533 ✭✭✭poolboy


    i just played the sky weather forecast video and nearly wet myself when i saw sunday please somebody tell me they are right:eek:


  • #311
    irish1967
    Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    revr wrote: »
    do you know redcastle hotel - I go every year - always great weather round those parts tho I play on the golf course!

    Oh dear God..lmao:o


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  • #312
    revr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 52 ✭✭revr


    maquiladora wrote: »
    18Z NOGAPS gives what looks like the mother of all snowfests. If snow showers brought Dublin to a hault today, this would be The Day After Tomorrow...


    But its NOGAPS....;)

    Thats why a warning is out for N.Ireland from the met office for Sunday. They expecting something


  • #313
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    snaps wrote: »
    Does he/she know how to update their profile?
    Do you know how to read my last posts, Anyone that has a problem with me I suggest them to contact the moderator instead of cluttering the forum.
    Enough is Enough.


  • #314
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Hope you enjoyed all your snow, this cold spell is not leading to much snow for the West of Scotland. It is galling to see we have been sub zero for 3 weeks and then that fantastic band of snow skips over us and goes to England yesterday :( We need more winds from the East so that the North Sea percip can be blown towards Glasgow.

    -9.2c here with some fantastic sparkling on the snow


  • #315
    revr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 52 ✭✭revr


    irish1967 wrote: »
    Oh dear God..lmao:o

    what? goin to a hotel is funny?


  • #316
    jenzz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 986 ✭✭✭jenzz


    snaps wrote: »
    Does he/she know how to update their profile?

    But we all know she be there ...........


  • #317
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Pangea wrote: »
    Ok i admit 1967 has the dirt , be quiet lol
    :D

    Yes i seen the pic of the lake ,very nice indeed! Imagine people going on the quads on it lol
    I suppose gave us around an inch of snow , it was nice and not expected at all.

    i really hope there are no idiots going out walking on it
    anyway, i think the snowfall you don't expect is nearly always the best.


  • #318
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,687 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    poolboy wrote: »
    i just played the sky weather forecast video and nearly wet myself when i saw sunday please somebody tell me they are right:eek:

    Hope it's not quite right, when I looked earlier, I think it was showing 5c in Dublin!


  • #319
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    If i remember correctly, that TV3 news report should be on in a few mins ,They went up in to the Roundwood , Co Wicklow


  • #320
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,115 ✭✭✭pad199207


    down to -11.2c here in Naas co kildare


  • #321
    irish1967
    Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Cork & Kerry ,mentioned for snow tomorrow on Sky News


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  • #322
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    temps leveling out here, not dropping much in the last hour. Currently -8.1c, im hoping for double figures of more than -11.3c.


  • #323
    jenzz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 986 ✭✭✭jenzz


    :eek:
    pad199207 wrote: »
    down to -11.2c here in Naas co kildare


  • #324
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    NOGAPS 18Z is actually kinda scary between 84 and 120 hours. As much as I love snow, that would be too much.

    Lets hope this isnt the 1 in 100 time that it gets it right.


  • #325
    Carroller16
    Registered Users Posts: 1,606 ✭✭✭Carroller16


    flying to Liverpool on Friday morn and coming back Sunday evening....Wats my chances?


  • #326
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    nacho libre wrote: »
    i really hope there are no idiots going out walking on it
    *Puts away blackberry and sneaks off the frozen lake :pac:


  • #327
    revr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 52 ✭✭revr


    Sky news always overdo temps - Plus half the time they more focused on Europe than the UK and Ireland weather!


  • #328
    irish1967
    Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Baltinglass in the lead on the NRA table... -10.7


  • #329
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Just hit -12c in Tullow


  • #330
    irish1967
    Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Carroller16 wrote: »
    flying to Liverpool on Friday morn and coming back Sunday evening....Wats my chances?

    If all goes to plan.. no need to fly.. you can skate over:)


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  • #331
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Get a load of your man, hardcore , out in his housecoat clearing the snow !


This discussion has been closed.
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