Autumn 2011

A drier than average autumn can be expected with virtually all districts below average rainfall levels, with the exception of the areas around Dublin and Killarney.
The northern counties may be driest making a welcome change. Autumn may also be sunnier than average, especially in the east, southeast and south and also the northwest. The dry and sunny conditions should result in average temperatures overall.

September - Overall, September will bring a drier start to autumn. Very little rainfall can be expected this month. Only the far eastern parts of Ulster, Leinster and the southern Munster can expect a wetter than average month.
Cork can expect to be wetter, mostly as a result of a couple of very wet days around 17 to 19 September and 29 to 30 September, with the chance of local flooding.
The first two weeks should be mostly fine and dry with only isolated showers from the 1 to 4 Sept and 8 to 9 September. It is not until 16 September that the first of two major wet phrases arrives. From 18 to 21 September, a widespread rainy period sweeps across the country. A mainly fine period follows from 22 to 28 September, except for isolated overnight showers in Ulster, Leinster and Munster.
September sees slightly warmer that average temperature overall - warmer in the west and northwest. Slightly cooler conditions can be expected in Northern Ulster and the far southwest of Munster. The warmest spell is possibly during the second week. Daily maximum temperatures for the month will range between 12C and 24C, with minimums ranging between 1C and 14C.

October - October may also be drier overall in Ulster, Connacht and Munster, with Leinster fairly close to average, but much of the east may get above average rainfall.
Dublin could get up to 50% additional rainfall, while inland western counties can expect to be drier than average. The wettest area may still be Killarney, while the north and northeast of Ulster and southwest of Munster may be driest.
Precipitation may be daily through most of the first three weeks, broken only by a fine day around 7 October. Expect heavy rain on 10 and 11 October and 16 to 17 October. From 21 to 29 October it may be mainly fine and dry, apart from showers in north and west during 25 to 27 October. This spell brings chances of early snow flurries in Ulster and light to moderate sleet or snowfall, mostly overnight, for Dublin. More light rainfall is expected on 30 and 31 October.

Sunshine - Considerably more sunshine can be expected this month but overcast days are likely from 9 to 11, 13 to 14, 16 to 18 and 23 October, as well as 30 October in Ulster and Connacht. Frost can be expected around 4 to 8 October, particularly in Ulster and southwest Munster.
Overall, most can expect slightly below average daily maximums, but southwest Munster may be considerably colder, while some western counties may be slightly above average. Daily highs may steadily drop from about 18C or 19C at the start of the month to as low as 6C or 7C by the end of the month. Daily minimums may range between -7C and 13C.
Widespread frost could occur on 8 October but this will be more constant from 24 to 29 October. Record minimum temperatures as low as -7C, could occur in inland areas on 28 to 29 October.

Harps wrote: »

Storm next week?