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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020

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  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭GolfNut33


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Cell east of Wicklow sparking

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    Its really beefing up on the way in.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,937 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Lightning flashes lighting up the bedroom here. (Wexford).


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Lightning here near Arklow too


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Holy Fook

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,765 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Trough approaching the S /SE tomorrow evening might have a slight chance of producing some weak thunderstorms, maybe off or along the coast. Relatively warm moist air over relatively cold sea with cold uppers.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Yeah it's looking more unstable at the moment in to the weekend but I feel the early days of next week have an even better chance of some storms, imports.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Plumey looking skies this morning

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,765 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The timing of the arrival of the rain bands this afternoon during the warmest part of the day here in the SW along with some coastal convergence and topographical lift might aid convection with the possibility of sporadic lightning from mid /late afternoon, some of the showers could be heavy.

    16.1C atm here near Tralee with higher humidity today giving a Dp of 12C

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,730 ✭✭✭Comhrá




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,765 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Had some heavy rain but no sparks here in Kerry as yet anyway. Got up to 18.4C and big drop in temperature to 12.5C

    All the action in NW France again with chances of some storms crossing the channel this evening / night.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,765 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The cells exploding in NW France.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,765 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


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    From Convective Weather:


    A slightly higher risk is likely to exist over SW Ireland on Friday afternoon / early evening, where better low-level moisture pooling and greater proximity to an upper vortex just offshore, and associated steeper lapse rates, may result in some slightly deeper convection. Here a risk of local flash flooding will be present, given slow storm motion and prolonged heavy downpours. The risk of lightning is still considered very low (<10%).

    ========================================



    Looks like the possibility of some heavy showers tomorrow in the SW with the build up of warmth in the afternoon, looks like a subtle area of convergence around N Kerry, Clare, Limerick showing up on the ECM giving some aid to convection, an outside chance of a rumble or two, will see.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,765 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Not much rain showing up so far, gone very dull here near Tralee, heavy cloud overhead and hazy below it, got up to 17.3C but temp has dropped down now to 12.8C. Satellite showing convection with growing cloud heights but rain staying up there for the most part for now.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,335 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    Not much rain showing up so far, gone very dull here near Tralee, heavy cloud overhead and hazy below it, got up to 17.3C but temp has dropped down now to 12.8C. Satellite showing convection with growing cloud heights but rain staying up there for the most part for now.

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    The air felt damp this evening. If I can have rain on Monday it will do.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Sky was very threatening here this evening but nada


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,765 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    After the front passes through on Weds looks like convection development as the cold uppers spread in over Ireland. Should produce some heavy showers Good preliminary lapse rates and signs of decent CAPE potential .Timing coinciding with peak diurnal heating. Better convection where there are good gaps in the cloud. Could get a few thunderstorms if the convection gets going early enough.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,765 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    A lot of interesting detail in Convective Weathers forecast. Been an age since there has been a modest to decent bit of potential for convection and lightning if somewhat sparse. From a weather watchers perspective an interesting spell of weather over the next few days after the extended calm spell.



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    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 29 Apr 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 30 Apr 2020

    ISSUED 20:26 UTC Tue 28 Apr 2020

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    A broad LOW threat level has been issued to cater for the very low risk of isolated lightning strikes that may occur with various weather features during this 24 hour forecast period. However, for most places the risk is considered very low, and hence the vast majority of the large LOW threat area will remain void of any lightning.

    At least two organised occlusions, and associated bands of rain, will sweep northwards and eastwards across the British Isles during this period, one during Wednesday daytime, and a second primarily during the evening and night. In both cases, these features will initially be quite active given strong forcing aloft, with heavy bursts of rain and embedded deep convection likely as they approach southern Ireland and southwest England, but as the forcing aloft shears away to the northwest, the bands of rain are expected to gradually weaken as they track farther northeast, eventually stalling somewhat over Scotland while decaying. In general, the risk of lightning will be greatest with these features as they approach southern Ireland/southwest Britain (20-25%), the risk then reducing as they push farther north and east (5-10%). CAM guidance suggests meso-vortices may develop along the rear edge, especially located near the most intense convection, and this may aid the potential for damaging gusts of wind (50-60mph possible over open waters and exposed Celtic Sea coasts). Multi-model guidance suggests Pembrokeshire and along the coast of Cardigan Bay could see some strong gusts of wind during Wednesday morning, for example.

    In-between these two occlusions there will likely be a window of cloud clearance coinciding with peak diurnal heating, particularly in a swathe from central Ireland across Wales and central southern England. With the mid-levels having cooled considerably by this stage, this may yield a couple hundred J/kg CAPE - more especially over Ireland, with greater proximity to the upper cold pool. As a result, some convection and a few showers could develop, although the pronounced mid-level dry layer will act as a lid, restricting the depth of convection and hence limiting the overall lightning risk. Nonetheless, a 10-15% risk of lightning may exist over Ireland during the afternoon hours, although the second occlusion will already be arriving in southern Ireland by mid/late afternoon.

    Behind the second occlusion, a pronounced shortwave will approach the Celtic Sea and SW England on Wednesday night, driving deep convection and numerous showers which may evolve into a comma-type feature by the end of the night. Given some reasonable speed and directional shear, strong forcing aloft and 300-500 J/kg CAPE, some sporadic lightning seems possible. A low-end SLGT (30%) has been issued to cater for this risk. Once again, some damaging gusts of wind could occur near exposed coasts and some hail is also likely in the most intense cells. Ironically, this type of setup is more akin to autumn/winter rather than mid/late spring!


  • Registered Users Posts: 669 ✭✭✭eastmayo


    Recent lighting strike showing up in Longford.Any reports from there?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,572 ✭✭✭davehey79


    eastmayo wrote: »
    Recent lighting strike showing up in Longford.Any reports from there?

    Few rumbles, heavy rain and saw one flash from this


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Probably too early in the year for anything severe but a fairly classic Spanish Plume setup on tonights ECMWF, doubt it'll amount to much but nice to be back in convective season again nonetheless :)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Too early for a true plume.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,730 ✭✭✭Comhrá


    Probably too early in the year for anything severe but a fairly classic Spanish Plume setup on tonights ECMWF, doubt it'll amount to much but nice to be back in convective season again nonetheless :)
    Ah....if only it was July or August! We'd be on storm watch. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,024 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Few strikes near Birr and Drogheda


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,765 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Slim pickings but some activity today.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,765 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Big convective showers streaming in from the W/ NW tomorrow . Potential there for thunderstorms and heavy local showers crossing the northern half of the country cold uppers giving good lapse rates and decent CAPE more so in the Northern third of the country. Could get hail showers also. Nice in the sunshine but generally feeling cool in the wind. Showers in the Southern half of the country also buy not as heavy the further S you get.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    Some sparks reported around Cavan in the last while. Fairly small but hefty hail showers being blown through at the mo


  • Registered Users Posts: 540 ✭✭✭Shakey_jake


    Nearly sure heard thunder over d13 about 5 mins ago


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    Nearly sure heard thunder over d13 about 5 mins ago
    You probably did. I heard similar over Malahide estuary and Blitzortung confirms it :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Torrential Hail in Kildare.


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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,620 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    A couple of recent strikes near Enfield (Co. Meath).


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