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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    On the cooler side in general over the coming days with a couple of milder interludes during frontal passages like Saturday.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM showing much stronger winds along Atlantic coastal counties now for early Saturday, timing still shifting a bit so will take more time to pin this down but it certainly has signs of being a strong one if fast moving through. Quite an active front, could produce squally conditions with straight line winds.

    Cold upper pool following, producing blustery convective showers, maybe some of hail later and some possibly thundery.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    GFS looking very windy as is ICON and ARPEGE

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM showing very strong winds coming into Atlantic coastal counties late Fri / early Saturday and very blustery overland, possibly some quite strong winds overland in exposed areas or high ground. A lot of vorticity showing up with loads of shear. Wondering if we will see squally conditions and straight line winds. Could be some very heavy embedded showers.

    Staying windy on the coasts and becoming blustery later that night into Sunday morning.

    Getting mild in the Southerly winds during the day and cooling again that night.

    Would reckon currently showing a high end Yellow warning in coastal counties at the moment, possibly Orange warning level for a time, possibly yellow warnings inland given that there will be strong squally showers as well.

    Other models similar, ECM probably the strongest atm

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    A lot of uncertainty around where the track of the remnant Low will end up and how strong it will be ( Met Eireann mention this tonight but haven't ruled it out mentioning still a possibility of strong winds or stormy conditions ). Models are also showing secondary lows that may have more strength than the remnant low itself. ECM has backed off now for a couple of runs as the GFS brings it closer the last few runs as indicated be indicated by the charts below. A lot of energy in the Atlantic, what will get swept in by the jet ? After +120 hrs models are showing some stormy weather at times.

    Huge seas forecast.



    https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/1319748986052382720?s=20

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


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    Putting this from the NHC in here as tying it in to how it may impact on us around next Tues/Weds . The closest model atm is the GFS, strong atm but noting that we are not used to this time of the year. It is out on it's own for now but has been very consistent for number of runs. Is this going to be a big one over the ECM for the GFS ???

    You would think there would be a bit more model agreement within the 120hr mark.



    WTNT42 KNHC 232051
    TCDAT2

    NHC

    Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 20
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
    500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

    The satellite structure of Epsilon has evolved over the last 6
    hours, with visible imagery suggesting concentric eyewalls, and
    recent 89 GHz GMI and AMSR2 microwave imagery indicating the
    secondary eyewall has nearly closed off around the smaller core. The
    current intensity of Epsilon was kept at 75 kt for this advisory,
    close to the satellite estimates, although the 50-kt wind field has
    expanded significantly in the northern semicircle as indicated by
    recent scatterometer data.

    Epsilon has maintained its northward heading with a bit faster
    forward motion (360/10 kt). The track reasoning remains the same,
    where the cyclone will be steered to the north around the westward
    extent of a deep-layer ridge and then will move quite quickly to
    the northeast as it encounters stronger deep-layer westerly flow
    ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. This same mid-latitude trough
    will interact with Epsilon after 60 h and contribute to the
    formation of a large and powerful baroclinic cyclone by the end of
    the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the track
    forecast.

    Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low over the next two days
    and intensity changes will likely be influenced by inner core
    fluctuations. The intensity guidance does suggest some modest
    intensification is possible in the short-term as Epsilon moves over
    a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, assuming the current secondary
    eyewall consolidates. Based on this reasoning, the official
    intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward for the first 24 h.
    Afterwards, slow weakening is expected but Epsilons 34- and 50-kt
    wind field should continue to expand to the south while it
    undergoes extratropical transition, completing the process by early
    Monday.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 23/2100Z 35.5N 61.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
    12H 24/0600Z 37.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
    24H 24/1800Z 38.9N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
    36H 25/0600Z 41.9N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
    48H 25/1800Z 45.6N 45.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
    60H 26/0600Z 50.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 26/1800Z 54.0N 24.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    NASA Sat Pic taken earlier today of tonight's system off the NW coast and Hurricane Epsilon across the Atlantic. Can see smoke in between the two systems coming from the fires in the US.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Well and truly time to put Epsilon to bed, at best a gale at sea for Ireland Tues and Weds ,windy along the coasts and breezy overland, looking a bit wet along Atlantic coastal counties.

    The GFS eventually followed the ECM and UKMO, took it a few days. Looking back over the last week it was the GFS that was first on it and first to show the remnants impacting on Ireland, when the ECM also came on board then Met Eireann started producing its commentary and forecasts and it looked high probability for a couple of days that we could get stormy conditions. ECM pulled the remnants further away followed by the UKMO and lastly the GFS. Was looking at GEM also but always seemed to be doing it's own thing.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Looking very windy from the European models over the weekend coming. GFS was showing it but backed off a bit.

    ECM showing a cluster of LP's exiting the left side of the Jet from Sat through to Monday ( have put in Monday chart even though not technically within +120 hrs but it is very much part of the wave of LP's showing up over the weekend ).

    The models differ on where they impact but all are showing very strong if not stormy conditions from early Saturday from deepening depressions, 3 so far I make it passing close or over us in quick succession. Could be a very lively weekend if these charts were to verify. With the position of the Jet I reckon there is a fair chance of a strong wind event. These are all forecast to deepen on approach so one to take notice of.

    I see a thread coming.......


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Wetter weather this week coming, a bit windy at times around midweek. Met Eireann talking about possible flooding in places around midweek.

    More under the influence of LP. Blocking high over Europe keeping us in the path of frontal activity from Atlantic LP's, lots of SWly sourced winds

    Mild in general

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Quick moving active front crossing the country tomorrow. Could be blustery and squally for a time. Pulling in colder air behind it.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Quite windy along Atlantic coasts on Weds into Thurs, Marine warnings and possibly warnings in coastal counties especially the W and NW, could be very blustery or possible strong winds overland also for a time. The E coast might get a lick of it also in the early hours. Could be fairly disturbed along the E coast / Irish sea for a time late Weds early Thurs perhaps.

    Cold air following the cold front with some heavy showers possible, more so in the W / NW.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z looing very wet Monday into Tues. Slow moving frontal passage. The triple point looks set to pass over Galway. Shows more rainfall a bit further inland than the other European models at this stage. GFS showing some high accumulated rainfall totals up to Tues afternoon. Would imagine rainfall warnings possible. A bit windy along the coasts on Monday .

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Cool day tomorrow, a few showers about, hopefully some sunshine again.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Latest Rainfall accumulations up to 17.00 Tuesday.

    Strong winds on coasts at times , breezy overland.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,480 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Looks like the weather pattern might be changing into the first week or two of December..with very cold air just north of us..potential for charts to upgrade this alot in the next week..also potential could be completely gone by then also ;)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The GFS is starting to trend milder again with mostly a westerly or south-westerly zonal theme continuing right up to the 10th of December. Cold appears to be locked up in the pole for the next few weeks, of course this may change but I don't think it will. Any time we've seen cold appear in the charts over the past few weeks it very quickly gets put back in it's place by the Atlantic.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    This particular Gfs run is mild into early December. High pressure over Europe low pressure up around Iceland. Urghh.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Becoming progressively colder during the week, Met Eireann saying it will be ''bitterly cold'' by Friday.

    NATIONAL OUTLOOK
    OUTLOOK: A lot of dry and calm weather but turning very cold, with frost, fog and possible icy stretches.

    TUESDAY NIGHT: Becoming dry early in the night, though some scattered showers will move into Atlantic counties overnight. Turning cold with frost and possibly a few icy stretches. Some mist and fog developing in parts too. Lowest temperatures 0 to 5 degrees Celsius, in light southwest to west breezes.

    WEDNESDAY: Frost and any possible icy stretches will clear early on, to give a mostly dry day with long spells of autumn sunshine - just a few stray showers across the north and west. A cool and crisp day with highest temperatures of 7 to 9 degrees Celsius in just light westerly breezes. Very cold and frosty after dark with a widespread frost, along with mist and fog. Lowest temperatures of -3 to +2 degrees Celsius in near calm.

    THURSDAY: A mostly dry and calm day, but a cold day with variable cloud cover. Frost and fog may be slow to clear some areas, whilst other areas will be sunny. Highest temperatures of just 4 to 8 degrees Celsius. A few stray light showers about after dark, but overall dry and calm. Another cold and frosty night, with some dense fog in parts. Lowest temperatures of 0 to -3 degrees Celsius.

    FRIDAY: Frost and fog may persist in some areas. Once again though, most areas will see a dry calm day with a mix of cloud and sunny spells. Bitterly cold though in places with highest temperatures of just 3 to 8 degrees Celsius, best values for southern fringes.

    Current indications suggest temperatures will remain colder than normal this weekend with some further frosts. Some well scattered showers about too, in light east to southeast winds.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Becoming progressively colder during the week, Met Eireann saying it will be ''bitterly cold'' by Friday.

    NATIONAL OUTLOOK
    OUTLOOK: A lot of dry and calm weather but turning very cold, with frost, fog and possible icy stretches.

    TUESDAY NIGHT: Becoming dry early in the night, though some scattered showers will move into Atlantic counties overnight. Turning cold with frost and possibly a few icy stretches. Some mist and fog developing in parts too. Lowest temperatures 0 to 5 degrees Celsius, in light southwest to west breezes.

    WEDNESDAY: Frost and any possible icy stretches will clear early on, to give a mostly dry day with long spells of autumn sunshine - just a few stray showers across the north and west. A cool and crisp day with highest temperatures of 7 to 9 degrees Celsius in just light westerly breezes. Very cold and frosty after dark with a widespread frost, along with mist and fog. Lowest temperatures of -3 to +2 degrees Celsius in near calm.

    THURSDAY: A mostly dry and calm day, but a cold day with variable cloud cover. Frost and fog may be slow to clear some areas, whilst other areas will be sunny. Highest temperatures of just 4 to 8 degrees Celsius. A few stray light showers about after dark, but overall dry and calm. Another cold and frosty night, with some dense fog in parts. Lowest temperatures of 0 to -3 degrees Celsius.

    FRIDAY: Frost and fog may persist in some areas. Once again though, most areas will see a dry calm day with a mix of cloud and sunny spells. Bitterly cold though in places with highest temperatures of just 3 to 8 degrees Celsius, best values for southern fringes.

    Current indications suggest temperatures will remain colder than normal this weekend with some further frosts. Some well scattered showers about too, in light east to southeast winds.

    I bet Jean Byrne was on duty this morning and wrote that. She's fond of that word.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    this mornings GFS operational run is definitely on the milder side compared to the rest of the runs, however there is nothing really cold on the horizon. Temperatures will slide a bit from this weekend to fairly standard late November to early December style temperatures and we lose the very mild temperature anomolies that have dominated the past month.

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    Not looking overly wet either, certainly nowhere as bad as the deluges from last November/early December. There are a few genuine cold outliers here too but the majority of the runs are average in terms of rainfall and temperatures.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Charts trending again towards cooler weather over the next 7 to 10 days and there is a fair chance this could get upgraded. At the same time we should see a fair deal of dry weather and night time frosts.

    High pressure will extend it's influence over us after tomorrow and temperatures will be cooler than what we've been used to. Daytime temperatures in the single digits, gone are the double digits and teens of the past month and a half.

    The high pressure then moves away from us into the Atlantic with a fairly strong mid Atlantic ridge forming later next week. This could send the jet stream diving southwards over Morocco and leaving Ireland in a potentially cold northerly plunge.

    ECM has high pressure in control over the weekend into early next week.

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    We finish on December 4th with winds howling down from the north and winter will begin to bite.

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    If this was to verify we could see daytime temperatures up to 4 or 5 degrees below normal.

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    ECM wants to block off the Atlantic completely with a very strong mid Atlantic ridge extending towards Greenland and another very strong ridge towards the east of Europe and into Russia, this would leave us in a very strong northerly most likely.

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    Interesting model watching ahead for a potentially cold and fairly dry first half to December.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It looks like a cold and dry period is fairly certain, hopefully between the two main models we get something a bit more wintry during the first week of December. The GFS does also show a decent but brief northerly in December too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Back to rain again for the weekend according to ME

    Saturday: A cool start to the day will give way to milder conditions
    extending from the south with outbreaks of rain developing in the south and west
    while remaining mostly dry in the east and north. Highest temperatures of 6 to
    10 degrees coolest in the north in a light to moderate southeasterly breeze.


    Saturday night: Rain, heavy at times, extending across the country on
    Saturday night coolest early in the east and towards dawn in the west as the
    rain and cloud clears with lowest temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees, light
    southerly breezes veering west and increasing light to moderate as the rain
    passes.

    Sunday: A wet start most with drier brighter conditions in the
    west extending east throughout the day. Highest temperatures of 7 to 10 degrees
    coolest in the north in light to moderate westerly breezes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    All change again
    Summary: Quite cold and settled for the end of the week with night frost, before milder and wetter weather spreads from the south over the weekend.

    Thursday night: Another mainly dry but cold and frosty night. It will be cloudier in the west and northwest with the chance of some light rain. Dense fog will develop in places in near calm conditions. Lowest temperatures generally of -1 to +5 degrees, coldest in the southeast.

    Friday: A cold day on Friday with frost and fog lingering in the morning. However, it will remain largely dry apart from showers in the northwest, with occasional sunny spells developing through the day, the best of which will be in the southeast. Highest temperatures just 5 to 9 degrees in light southerly breezes.

    Friday night: Becoming mostly dry on Friday night, with clear spells and just the odd isolated shower. Continuing cold with lowest temperatures dropping to between -2 and +3 degrees, coldest in the east where there will be a widespread frost.

    Saturday: Most places will see a cold, dry and bright day on Saturday with afternoon temperatures of 6 to 8 degrees. It will be milder and cloudier towards the south coast, though, with scattered showers and highest temperatures of 9 to 11 degrees. Easterly winds will be light to moderate.

    Saturday night: Well scattered showers will linger in southern areas on Saturday night but otherwise it will be dry with a mix of cloud and clear spells. Mist and fog will form towards morning. Lowest temperatures will range between -1 and +6 degrees, coldest in Ulster.
    [/QUOTE]


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    After a couple of average temperature days at the start of the week getting cold with what looks like wintry showers as winds veer to the NW. Could be plenty of hail showers , a convective look to it, wondering will we get a few rumbles around the coasts also.

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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Met Office

    “ Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

    Cloudy and mostly dry on Tuesday. Turning much colder on Wednesday and Thursday with wintry showers.”


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Please don’t pay any heed to the discussion on the Netweather Model outlook forum. It is quite confusing and misleading, you have one person saying that it will not produce snow and the next person showing charts of low level snow showers.

    The truth is it does appear for the northern third of our island at a minimum the parameters are just about right for showers to fall as snow to low levels, particularly at night. It does not get cold enough in England.

    The cold air actually enters NW Ulster on Wednesday morning and gradually filters down. It appears the coldest air is not until Thursday, with some -6c 850hPa air. This is marginal.

    The freezing level appears to be 800 metres on Wednesday in Ulster, and <500 metres from Wednesday evening there, which is productive for low level snow in heavy showers.

    By Thursday evening the freezing level is under 400 metres for most of the island, so this is productive for snow in most cases.

    So in reality (at this stage) there is a window of snow from late Wednesday to Friday early hours. It is not a sharp cold spell but it is a start.

    It appears to be quite a showery setup too which should enable evaporative cooling and lower temps during the day.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 202 ✭✭CirrusBusiness


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Please don’t pay any heed to the discussion on the Netweather Model outlook forum. It is quite confusing and misleading, you have one person saying that it will not produce snow and the next person showing charts of low level snow showers.

    The truth is it does appear for the northern third of our island at a minimum the parameters are just about right for showers to fall as snow to low levels, particularly at night. It does not get cold enough in England.

    The cold air actually enters NW Ulster on Wednesday morning and gradually filters down. It appears the coldest air is not until Thursday, with some -6c 850hPa air. This is marginal.

    The freezing level appears to be 800 metres on Wednesday in Ulster, and <500 metres from Wednesday evening there, which is productive for low level snow in heavy showers.

    By Thursday evening the freezing level is under 400 metres for most of the island, so this is productive for snow in most cases.

    So in reality (at this stage) there is a window of snow from late Wednesday to Friday early hours. It is not a sharp cold spell but it is a start.

    It appears to be quite a showery setup too which should enable evaporative cooling and lower temps during the day.

    Will wait for a Kermit thread before getting excited. Looks like marginal stuff so far. West coast might get some slushy white gold at times.


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