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Snow/Ice warning: 26 / 27 / 28 Jan 2020
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Come on though lets be honest how many times has kermit started a snow thread and it turns out to be a damp squib espescially when its almost a straight westerly ill eat my words if am wrong but the charts are not mpressive for this 1 look at MTs forecast he even keeps to hills and a small chance of low lying snow
How many times have I started a thread that has turned out to be a damp squib?
Stick with me, you'll be grand :cool:
OP stands as my forecast. Nothing has changed.0 -
Kermit.de.frog wrote: »I don't think the GFS is going over board at all meself. Looks close to spot on to me.
Sunday night needs to be watched though as a trough line crosses the country - this could bring snowfall to low levels particularly to the west, north west and north midlands and maybe further south too.
Its precip indications seem to be very low res. The area it shows as snow is basically the area for potential and even then it's so marginal that the fact GFS always seems to keep us that bit colder than other models in the last few events has always seemed to result in dissapointment.
Not wanting to snow on your parade.. in fact for what it's worth, I'd love you to be correct, since it shows some potential for Dublin also
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The is the latest ECMWF run showing total 'accumulation' between now and late Tues.
As with other charts that show something similar, they are not to be taken literally. They just show forecast depths if every single snowflake were not to melt. Better to use this kind of chart for assessing which areas are more likely to see snow falling at any given stage between now and then rather than where it will shtick.New Moon
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This was the setup at 18Z, with the cold fronts showing the colder and colder air back towards Baffin Bay. The GFS sounding for 53N 30W at the same time, which is roughly the air that will cross Ireland tomorrow night, shows its 850 hPa temperature around -13 C, surface temp 0 C, wbt around -2 C, around 508 dam. The air's going the long way around, heading first southeastwards, then northeastwards towards Ireland, so its sea track is a little longer than a direct northwesterly from Greenland. It has around 1300 km to go, so we'll see how much it modifies in that time. The GFS sounding for just inland NW Mayo midnight tomorrow shows that air has modified to a surface wbt of around +2 C. That would suggest too marginal except in the heaviest showers, but then it is only the GFS...
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Hopefully some will see snow over the next couple of days. I know it's frustrating with people being told different forecasts but that's because it's knife edge between rain and snow.
For the northwest you'll do reasonably well for snow out of this with a few cm by Tuesday night.
Elsewhere as mentioned by others it's a marginal set up but as per the OP if you get snow you'll get at least dusting.
As per Met Eireann it's always the west and midlands with the best chance outside of the northwest and of course on high ground.
It's a nowcast from tomorrow evening.
Fingers crossed 0 -
IMO : ARPEGE and ICON not backing down one bit with the milder 850 hPa temperatures, on the other hand ECM, EURO4 and HIRLAM still maintaining their colder mid level temperatures.
UKMO showing a frontal system passing over the country late afternoon/ early night ,will be interesting to see what this produces early in the night, probably rain and sleety mix low down in areas and a bit more like snow on higher terrain more so in the W, NW and N, air mass should get colder as the night progresses, the Trough that follows close behind tomorrow night and the shower field with it giving best chance of producing snow, more so on higher ground. Might snow lower down but will it stick ? don't think much lasting long at sea level if it makes it down that far but wouldn't be surprised to see reports of some snow lower down early Monday morning in the W and NW and more so snow covered roads on hills in the W, NW, N on Monday morning and the highest roads in the SW perhaps like the county bounds on the Killarney to Cork road.
One thing the models seem to agree on is a bit of potential for some sporadic lightning, more so along the coasts and probably best chance up along the W and NW, tomorrow night with convective clouds in the mix should be getting reports of big hail showers into Monday. Plenty of wintry showers to follow on Monday with longer spells of wintry mix possible, higher ground in the the SW could see some small accumulations Monday evening into Tues.
Should be getting some reports of wintry showers in the NW tomorrow daytime, some of snow.
Windy along the coasts tomorrow evening and blustery overland for a time.
Would love to see EURO4 produce what it is currently predicting but think it is over doing it . Will stick with ECM on this one .
Currently moderate rainfall as the cold fronts pass over, 1.8mm so far, relatively mild at 9.2C. Whatever happens it's a good opportunity to focus on the weather for a couple of days and see how it unfolds and how the various models handle it.
These are just my thoughts be they right or wrong.
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