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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

1…34689…20

Comments

  • #152
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,804 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Very unsettled next week with more or less each day up to the weekend showing some possibility of being windy or very windy.

    Very wet at times. Cold airmass for the main been consistent now for a number of runs , showing wintry weather at times. Brief milder passages as fronts go through.


    Feeling cold in the wind.

    FxKT8MV.png

    nl5PJCM.png


    lABgS9m.png


    NiX0q7R.png

    WBQ41ri.gif


  • #153
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    severe disturbance winding up on the 12z gfs for next Thursday,scraping past us to the west, dart board low, similar to the ECM which has a very vigourous storm off the south coast.


    airpressure.png


  • #154
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Hopefully that'll be a storm that pulls the jet stream north and gives us a HP breather.


  • #155
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    Hopefully that'll be a storm that pulls the jet stream north and gives us a HP breather.

    I think any HP's that do come our way will be very short lived. The Atlantic is relentless this year and it hasn't really skipped a beat since September, making any complete nationwide settled days few and far between. The second half of January was shaping up to be a dry one with high pressure but now that picture is very different with the Atlantic very much in control over the next few weeks. Hopefully we get a complete change of scene in February and get some proper cold going and a much more wintry feel.


  • #156
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Hints of a pattern change in the medium term on the models at the moment, the PV finally lets its guard down over the Bering Strait with weak heights infiltrating.

    gfsnh-0-144_tlt5.png

    From there the main PV lobe shifts to Siberia leaving a much weaker lobe over North America. If we have any chance of something other than westerlies this winter then that's what we want to see.

    gfsnh-0-288_wpt2.png

    Nothing much of interest at the moment but something to keep an eye on at least :rolleyes:


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  • #157
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    A trend towards something colder towards the end of the month? The next week sees temperatures switching between cool and mild several times and remaining very unsettled. A very mild spell around 19th-21st January. After that the GFS is starting to trend cooler and slightly dryer with some cold signals at the very end of the run. Will the zonal winds weaken towards the end of January? A few of the runs are chilly enough at +384 hours

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2020-01-11&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Hopefully these are the first baby steps towards a genuine change in the pattern for end of January/February.


  • #158
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Gonzo wrote: »

    Hopefully these are the first baby steps towards a genuine change in the pattern for end of January/February.

    Hmmmmm......

    https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1216038952039321609?s=19


  • #159
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,434 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Happy with the trend today - seeing some meaningful changes now in the medium term.

    Nothing to get excited about yet but finally...

    220px-Barack_Obama_Hope_poster.jpg


  • #160
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Happy with the trend today - seeing some meaningful changes now in the medium term.

    Nothing to get excited about yet but finally...

    You're talking cold and possibly snow right? Fingers crossed.


  • #161
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    You're talking cold and possibly snow right? Fingers crossed.

    we are still very far from anything reliable but there are a few hints that things are about to change. We've had a raging relatively mild and very unsettled Atlantic pattern for 5 months already, it's about time a change is ready to happen. My guess is it's going to be another late one, perhaps some wintryness in February, but we could sneak a few cold weeks in March, so I would say flakes could happen into February and on into March. We should at least get a decent dry and frosty week of high pressure at some point and maybe a few days of wintry showers. Considering the muck we've been through the months, i'll take anything that's going at this stage.


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  • #162
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Naggdefy wrote: »
    Can a major depression heading into the Artic have any impact on breaking such a strong vortex or has the change to propagate from higher in the atmosphere like a SSW?

    Yes some warmings are initiated from below in the troposphere. i remember one winter where very warm southerly winds went up into the arctic, which led to the troposhere polar vortex being displaced.


  • #163
    Naggdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Yes some warmings are initiated from below in the troposphere. i remember one winter where very warm southerly winds went up into the arctic, which led to the troposhere polar vortex being displaced.

    Yes temp hovered around 0C at the north pole. I think the 2015-2016 winter.


  • #164
    Neddyusa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,010 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    Yr.no is forecasting 3 ice days in a row next Sunday - Tuesday and no posts about it on here.
    I can't post charts.
    Reading this thread you'd have thought there was very mild weather only due for the forseeable. Or are there changes in FI today?


  • #165
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    it looks like it will settle down around the 17th, what happens to the high after that could be interesting- perhaps a decent polar maritime, or if we are lucky a northerly


  • #166
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,498 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Neddyusa wrote: »
    Yr.no is forecasting 3 ice days in a row next Sunday - Tuesday and no posts about it on here.
    I can't post charts.
    Reading this thread you'd have thought there was very mild weather only due for the forseeable. Or are there changes in FI today?

    Very minimal chance for ice days. As nacho libre says above, the weather expected to settle down through the weekend into next week with cooler and drier conditions. Been multiple changes with this already though so don't take it for gospel.

    The current likely outcome following this more settled interval is for the high to descend back southwards and bring in the westerlies again.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #167
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,804 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Pressure building the weekend and ECM showing it staying nearby until about Thurs. GFS shows it breaking down about Weds.

    GaJk6kG.gif


  • #168
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    looking forward to a few days of dry, settled weather with this area of high pressure and maybe even a frost or two. Hopefully we will get more than 2 or 3 days out of this before the likely scenario of the Atlantic rolling back in soon afterwards. Still absolutely no sign of any blocking or decent cold on the horizon. At least there are signs of a settled few days to escape the Atlantic deluges for a few days.


  • #169
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,872 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yes it was originally supposed to start Thursday for a full week now more likely Saturday and Sunday before 90 days more rain after Monday evening


  • #170
    Logan Roy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    Gonzo wrote: »
    At least there are signs of a settled few days to escape the Atlantic deluges for a few days.

    You'd hardly call the rainfall we've had in the past few weeks "deluges"


  • #171
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    You'd hardly call the rainfall we've had in the past few weeks "deluges"

    It did go dryer over the Christmas for a short while but really there has been very little escape from rain and not enough dry days to dry out the land. Here in Meath we had several very heavy spells of rain over the past week and there is plenty of water logging around once again in the fields. The charts show that we may go 3 or 4 days without rain next week, but at this stage I think we need a few weeks away from it!


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  • #172
    Logan Roy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    Gonzo wrote: »
    It did go dryer over the Christmas for a short while but really there has been very little escape from rain and not enough dry days to dry out the land. Here in Meath we had several very heavy spells of rain over the past week and there is plenty of water logging around once again in the fields. The charts show that we may go 3 or 4 days without rain next week, but at this stage I think we need a few weeks away from it!

    Agreed, looks like it will be mostly dry in Cork for 5+ days starting Friday :D


  • #173
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,342 ✭✭✭esposito


    The weather here is so predictable lately. After this upcoming dry spell with cold, frosty nights (which I welcome with open arms) according to bbc weather it will turn unsettled again with more wind and rain later next week. If only the high could move north of us instead of always dropping south. Us coldies need a nice surprise and we are well overdue it. There’s still hope though. Let’s see what Feb and early March bring. After that I lose interest.


  • #174
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,872 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Wer like the opposite to Australia

    Could we share some of this wet with them

    Every month of these

    August
    September
    October
    November
    December
    January

    Has had over 100mm of rain in Sligo
    Oh sorry January is only on 56mm yet but halfway
    August had 204mm!!


  • #175
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    esposito wrote: »
    The weather here is so predictable lately. After this upcoming dry spell with cold, frosty nights (which I welcome with open arms) according to bbc weather it will turn unsettled again with more wind and rain later next week. If only the high could move north of us instead of always dropping south. Us coldies need a nice surprise and we are well overdue it. There’s still hope though. Let’s see what Feb and early March bring. After that I lose interest.

    The weather is never predictable, as you say if the high can move west and build north, a bit like the 18z which is a glancing blow from the north but could easily shift and become a direct hit...

    GFSOPEU18_201_1.png


  • #176
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    GFS 18z definitely gone full on cold, will it be an outlier or a trend in the next few days...

    GFSOPEU18_231_2.png


  • #177
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    Hopefully that'll be a storm that pulls the jet stream north and gives us a HP breather.

    :)


  • #178
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    :)

    Storms don't pull jet streams, it's the other way round the jet steers the storms, the jet buckling after the storm is what could lead to a very cold and snowy period of weather


  • #179
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,342 ✭✭✭esposito


    typhoony wrote: »
    GFS 18z definitely gone full on cold, will it be an outlier or a trend in the next few days...

    GFSOPEU18_231_2.png

    The former and you know it. It’s the pub run after all


  • #180
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,498 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Very appropriate that this is appearing around a similar time to the failed easterly of January last year.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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  • #181
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Hey I'm taking the credit. No one else was willing to suggest this was coming.


This discussion has been closed.
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