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Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

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13567…58

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    #62
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    tylercollins wrote: »
    When you say a real winter storm, what are we actually
    talking? Blizzards? Thundersnow?

    long way off Tyler. a mixture of everything if it did come off. precip would be
    mixed wintry but winds would be potentially severe.

    either way, i posted the chart as a sample of what the gefs is indicating for the period I
    spoke of in OP. I do not expect this specific scenario to come off on the date in question. Still, we are likely to see colder conditions come 16-18th or so.


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    #63
    tylercollins
    Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    long way off Tyler. a mixture of everything if it did come off. precip would be
    mixed wintry but winds would be potentially severe.

    either way, i posted the chart as a sample of what the gefs is indicating for the period I
    spoke of in OP. I do not expect this specific scenario to come off on the date in question. Still, we are likely to see colder conditions come 16-18th or so.

    Yeah sort of thought that with it being 10 days out. Reason I asked was just to have an explanation of the chart just, trying to learn to reading these things lol

    But thanks for answering my question :)


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    #64
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    I think the OP has the right idea myself. Could be a few days yet before any changes are picked up in a meaningful way among the models. We do need something special to get out of the zonal phase we are in. The ensembles paint a brighter picture with the median temperature falling away from around the middle of the month. The teleconnections (AO/NAO) suggest a change is not that far off despite what looks, on the face of it right now, like a horror situation for those who want to see cold and snow.

    Definately worth while following this in the next week or two. In the short term nothing is changing except it will be turning a bit milder for next week and fairly settled.


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    #65
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Cracking run from the 12z GFS for potential.

    Hinting a total pattern flip. Things in the next few days could get extremely interesting and whatever happens, with extreme strat warming forecast next week, the rest of winter( bar the next 7 days!) will be very different to the first half.


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    #66
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Following a pattern this morning best shown on the GEM. Wonderful potential there this morning. Interesting stuff indeed. If we see the artic high slipping south as early as 192hrs there could be some fun charts in the forecast in the days ahead.


    187502.png


    NOGAPS suggesting height rises over Scandinavia but not going the artic high route. Hint of undercutting.

    nogaps-0-180.png?07-17


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    #67
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Cracking run from the 12z GFS for potential.

    Hinting a total pattern flip. Things in the next few days could get extremely interesting and whatever happens, with extreme strat warming forecast next week, the rest of winter( bar the next 7 days!) will be very different to the first half.

    Have to agree things are going to very intertesting, and im sure we will have some classic runs with the forecast start warming if the zonal winds switch in the start forecast which there is hints of, this might just give us a taste of last year, Still its just one run the models will still flip in the next few days.


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    #68
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    This place just might start to get very busy again in the next couple of weeks... ;)


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    #69
    Trogdor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    Another nice one showing potential but still very far out for the moment
    187505.png

    EDIT: And another one
    187506.png

    Just flicking through the ensembles on the 12z gfs would certainly suggest that things are very uncertain and a big change may be on the way alright. A lot of runs, whether they would bring snow or not, are showing a change from the current pattern anyway.


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    #70
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    Will be fascinating to see if this winter runs the opposite way to last years, with any serious cold happening towards the second half of it... :D


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    #71
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    :)
    187509.png


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    #72
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Better alignment and amplification of the pattern on the ECM at 120hrs. Also note the lack of short waves (depressions) through the Greenland, Iceland, Norway (GIN) corridor. Key indication of a weakening of the Northern arm of the Jet Stream.

    Recm1201.gif

    I think this could be better for coldies then the 00z ECM.



    144hrs - so far, so good. Atlantic blocked and path for link with Artic High pressure as heights build North and Southerly diving Jet Stream.

    Recm1441.gif


    168hrs - there is the link. Now will we get the undercutting?

    Recm1681.gif


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    #73
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Thats quiet a pattern change on the 12Z ECM, regardless of the specifics.


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    #74
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Very significant pattern change. Very close. We just miss out in the end but it's the trend that matters at this range.



    144hrs is the key timeframe. That's when the real change occurs.


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    #75
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,011 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Very promising runs tonight! Hopefully these signals continue too build, and if anything does arise in the coming month, that the situation to our SW is less pesky and the floodgates can be opened properly!


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    #76
    oisingeogho
    Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭oisingeogho


    How are the AO and NAO looking?
    Does it support it?


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    #77
    jirafa
    Registered Users Posts: 2,351 ✭✭✭jirafa


    Saturday's 10-14 day outlook & early Feb thoughts 7/1/2012 From: WeatherSchool .

    Video Link .............. http://youtu.be/49pFaCTTHE0


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    #78
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    How the ECMWF 12z Ensemble mean looks in FI:

    187535.jpg

    Definitely some distortion being picked up in the pattern further east, though ridging also further east than what is shown on the current op run.

    I hope that if any colder weather does happen that it won't be just cold with nothing else. I am all for big winter weather whether it be mild or cold but cold just for the sake of it being cold is nothing to celebrate imo.


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    #79
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Can't agree with that Deep!

    We've had maybe three air frosts here, nothing less than -2C since September. That is some sort of record for this location.

    We badly need some deep frosts to kill of the weeds and bugs and set things up for spring.

    Just checked: we've had two air frosts with the lowest -1C


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    #80
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    If the relentless westerlies keep fohning across the mountains for much longer we'll be getting the most frost-free winter in the history of Sandyford :(

    Not something to look forward to!


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    #81
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    I personally find the ECMWF to be the most reliable model system.

    The 12z today looks very promising in terms of cold with cold air coming in over Ireland from Saturday 14th January (when I say cold, not very cold, just colder than the mild temps we will have next week!)

    Then from Sunday the 15th January, it looks likes some decent cold air will build in from the EAST!! :D

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0


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    #82
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Quite an unbelievable pattern change on the 12z runs today, Surprised there's not more activity here today. Obviously nothing to get excited about yet things can change in the blink of an eye. But the signs are beginning to get very ominous for some serious cold come the third quarter of this month and into february.

    18z will be very interesting.


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    #83
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    18z looks good so far at 102 hrs. Everything again more amplified in the Atlantic. Reckon this should be a good run overall.


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    #84
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Yes looking very interesting at the moment when comparing to the last run
    Edit stronger depression in the Atlantic is pulling heights further nw but will it just barge through because of this and spoil the party

    Edit gap opening up again for a rise


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    #85
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    162 hrs - excellent setup with the artic high meeting the Euro high and the really bitter air into the continent. Seriously cold stuff there.


    Rtavn1621.png

    Could do with a height rise over Greenland though...


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    #86
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Important link up from the Pacific high to create a negative AO
    187561.JPG


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    #87
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    haha model watching has become like watching a football game! .. " GO on... GO ONN.... GGOOOOO OONNNNN!!! "

    Shocked-Student-Guy-Funny-Exam-Fail1-296x300.jpg

    Sadly i cant stay on and hav a closer look at all the variations... up at 5 for work .. :(


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    #88
    aurora 527
    Registered Users Posts: 413 ✭✭aurora 527


    images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRXwa8-eqzowpzIJmaz6M9oy-Tqx-FDf11N_pjnsfEKlgka78rj

    Or... go on, go on , go on, gooo onnn


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    #89
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Very promising run. Very good trend, I'm not looking past the chart I posted above cause that is where things become interesting. Lets get this to happen first, if it does.


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    #90
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    redsunset wrote: »
    Very promising run. Very good trend, I'm not looking past the chart I posted above cause that is where things become interesting. Lets get this to happen first, if it does.

    What do u think the chances are and what dates are we looking at?


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    #91
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Haven't seen any models since the 18z runs last night so quite a surprise to see tonight's offering, still massive uncertainty after the mild spell but cross model agreement is encouraging to see


This discussion has been closed.
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