Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi all,
Vanilla are planning an update to the site on April 24th (next Wednesday). It is a major PHP8 update which is expected to boost performance across the site. The site will be down from 7pm and it is expected to take about an hour to complete. We appreciate your patience during the update.
Thanks all.

September 2011 Boards forecast contest

13»

Comments

  • #62
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    thetonynator wrote: »
    Will set it up tomorrow if ya want, or if someone else wants to feel free!

    Have started a thread there this evening.


  • #63
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,318 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Report after 28 days ...

    The fourth week has been relatively warm at 14.2 C. This leaves the IMT sitting at an estimated 13.6, likely to edge up after today and finish around 13.8 C. Of our forecasts, Octo came closest but we were all on the cool side no doubt influenced by the trend of the summer months. I'm not sure if the mercy rule will come into play, perhaps marginally. Since the flash contest specified all stations for the max and Phoenix Park reported 25.6 C, I am going to avoid any inconsistency by taking that (if it holds up) regardless of whether it appears in the monthly summary or not. And as far as I recall we have not been below 3.7 C yet, nor likely to go there tonight.

    On the rainfall front, the past week was dry generally (especially the east) with 64% of the normal. This leaves the month sitting at 108% of normal. It could go up slightly again if there are significant downpours Friday, but probably not much, 110% looks about right for the finish.

    Sunshine improved a bit to 86% and some stations were actually well above normal, however, the month will definitely come in "dull" especially compared to the range of our forecasts. The estimated value as of now is 70-72 per cent and should finish around there.

    Two reminders then, the October forecast contest is posted, and scoring for September should appear on Monday 3rd some time when the figures are in after the weekend.


  • #64
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,318 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Approximate scoring for September. You can bank on the IMT, max, min, and bonus here, and the rain/sun should be fairly close to being correct, but watch for a final version in the Annual scoring thread some time around Monday 3rd (evening).

    Forecaster ......... IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... Dub-4th
    ________________________________________________________________

    based on ........... 13.7 ..... 25.6 ..... 3.7 ..... 110 ..... 070 ..... 15.4/5.0

    octo .................. 23 ..... 16* ..... 05*..... 10 ..... 03 ..... 08 ..... 65
    Su Campu ........... 16 ..... 16* ..... 06* .... 12 ..... 02 .... 10 ..... 62
    H2UMrsRobinson ... 21 ..... 02* ..... 18* .... 12 .... 04 ..... 01 ..... 58
    traecy1 ............. 16 ..... 10* ..... 07* .... 13 ..... 02 ..... 08 ..... 56
    John mac ............ 12 ..... 03* .... 12* .... 15 ..... 03 ..... 09 ..... 54
    Deep Easterly ..... 17 ..... 09* ..... 04* .... 10 ..... 04 ..... 10 ..... 54
    DOCARCH ........... 18 ..... 02* ..... 06* .... 14 ..... 05 ..... 08 ..... 53
    kindredspirit ....... 15 ..... 01* ..... 08* .... 15 ..... 05 ..... 09 ..... 53
    MiNdGaM3 .......... 18 ..... 11* ..... 02* .... 05 ..... 06 ..... 09 ..... 51
    Joe Public .......... 17 ..... 18* ..... 00 ...... 08 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 51
    danno**............. 19 ..... 09* ..... 16* .... 05 ..... 00 ..... 01 ..... 50
    Jerry Seinfeld ...... 19 ..... 01* ..... 05* .... 10 ..... 06 ..... 09 ..... 50
    okla ................... 16 ..... 00 ...... 14* .... 08 ..... 06 ..... 03 ..... 47
    rameire .............. 16 ..... 02* ..... 06* .... 15 ..... 06 ..... 01 ..... 46
    nilhg ................. 17 ..... 08* ..... 00 ..... 09 ...... 02 ..... 10 ..... 46

    Con Sensus ........ 14 ..... 01* ..... 00 .... 15 ..... 06 ..... 10 ..... 46

    dacogawa ......... 09 ..... 14* .... 00 ..... 11 ..... 06 ..... 06 ..... 46
    M.T. Cranium ...... 17 ..... 07* .... 00 ..... 07 ..... 09 ..... 05 ..... 45
    Fionagus ............ 14 ..... 01* .... 00 ..... 15 ..... 05 ..... 10 ..... 45
    redsunset .......... 20 ..... 02* .... 02* .... 12 ..... 05 ..... 03 ..... 44
    hellboy99 ........... 14 ..... 07* .... 00 ..... 11 ..... 06 ..... 06 ..... 44
    Rickylovesuall ..... 14 ..... 00 ..... 11* .... 11 ..... 04 ..... 03 ..... 43
    thetonynator ...... 18 ..... 01* ..... 09* ... 07 ..... 00 .... 07 ..... 42
    Strasser ............ 14 ..... 00 ...... 06* .... 10 .... 06 ..... 06 ..... 42
    dasa29 ............. 16 ..... 07* ..... 00 ..... 10 ..... 05 ..... 04 ..... 42
    4Sheets ............ 15 ..... 01* ..... 00 ..... 10 ..... 08 ..... 07 ..... 41
    snowstreams ..... 12 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 13 ..... 05 ..... 10 ...... 40
    Harps ............... 16 ..... 03* ..... 00 .... 12 ..... 06 ..... 02 ..... 39
    homolumo ......... 14 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 12 ..... 07 ..... 06 ..... 39
    NIALL_D ........... 08 ..... 00 ...... 05* ... 15 ..... 06 ..... 05 ..... 39
    Sponge Bob ....... 09 ..... 01* .... 00 ..... 14 ..... 06 ..... 08 ..... 38
    jambofc ........... 07 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 15 ..... 07 ..... 09 ..... 38
    mickger844posts . 15 ..... 00 ..... 02*.... 13 ..... 04 ..... 03 ..... 37
    nacho libre ........ 14 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 08 ..... 07 ..... 07 ..... 36
    waterways ........ 13 ..... 00 ..... 00 ...... 09 ..... 05 ..... 09 ..... 36
    fizzycyst ........... 14 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 10 ..... 06 ..... 05 ..... 35
    talkabout .......... 08 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 15 ..... 05 ..... 07 ..... 35
    Tae laidir ........... 13 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 06 ..... 07 ..... 34
    cherryghost ...... 08 ..... 01* .... 00 ..... 08 ..... 07 ..... 10 ..... 34
    Iancar29 ........... 10 ..... 07* .... 00 ..... 10 ..... 05 ..... 02 ..... 34
    ch750536* ........ 12 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 14 ..... 04 ...... 03 ..... 33
    pauldry ............ 07 ..... 00 ...... 01* ... 10 ..... 06 ..... 08 ..... 32
    jd* .................. 10 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 09 ..... 06 ..... 06 ..... 31
    200motels ......... 12 ..... 00 ..... 02* .... 02 .... 08 ..... 03 ..... 27
    The Inquisitor .... 04 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 07 ..... 07 ..... 27
    SeaFields .......... 01 ..... 00 ..... 01* ... 13 ..... 06 ..... 03 ..... 24
    demakinz .......... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 08 ..... 00 ..... 16

    NOTES: No penalties were assessed (scores not higher than criteria).

    * For max and min, the scores are adjusted from "minimum progression" rule

    Scores may change slightly for some elements when final figures are available.

    Congrats to Octo and Su Campu for leading the way this month, and looking good H2UMrsR ... where have you gone Joe diMaggio?

    (IMT may turn out a bit higher, Octo will stay at 23 with our minimum scoring rule and most other scores will drop 1-2 if this happens ... if there is an absolute deluge today then 110 may be more like 115 for rainfall, scores there could change by 1-2).

    Final scores to be posted around Monday in annual scoring thread.


  • #65
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,870 ✭✭✭pauldry


    there was an absolute deluge MT

    Oak Park had 46.5mm!! :eek:out of a monthly average of 71mm

    Over 20mm at numerous other stations


  • #66
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Final IMT for September finished at 13.7c. around 1.0c above the 61-90 norm.

    Interestingly, September finished 0.03c warmer than August! which makes it the 2nd warmest month of the year (July was warmer at 14.4c)

    IMT mean max for the month finished spot on normal at 16.8c, but the mean min value finished previous at 10.5c, which is 1.8c above the 61-90 average and which seems to be a current trend for September over the last couple of years.

    IMR rainfall % of normal (not used in competition) finished at 131.6%.

    Sir M.T will have all the other essential stats on Monday.


  • Advertisement
  • #67
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    ... if there is an absolute deluge today then 110 may be more like 115 for rainfall, scores there could change by 1-2).

    A two day deluge at this stage with a threat of another half day or so.


  • #68
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 707 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Pity September didn't have 31 Days!


  • #69
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,318 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The provisional estimate I made for rainfall anticipated some of the Friday rainfall although I am expecting to find the actual values a bit higher than I used for scoring. If you predicted more than 110% you'll see a gain in points and if not, well, hope I was off on some other estimate too. :D


  • #70
    H2UMrsRobinson
    Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    Woohoo! Chuffed with that score. More luck than judgement though :-)


  • #71
    octo
    Registered Users Posts: 321 ✭✭octo


    Yes, Fame at last! I always knew my day would one day come.

    The big question is, can I put this on my CV?


  • Advertisement
  • #72
    H2UMrsRobinson
    Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    octo wrote: »
    Yes, Fame at last! I always knew my day would one day come.

    The big question is, can I put this on my CV?

    Not only can you put it on your CV, you can redeem it for free beer/wine/spirits in any pub IN THE WORLD...as long as it's snowing outside ;) (big fat lie)


  • #73
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,870 ✭✭✭pauldry


    and you can go tsssssk when you see Evelyn Cusack on TV


  • #74
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,318 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Okay, remember I did say "approximate scoring" and my estimate on the rainfall turned out about 10% too low, it was actually 119% and change. That is handy in just one way, it allows me to convert the scores by plus or minus three except for those between the two values. So my extra work is minimal, which is how I like it. I would still go ahead and mention it in the C.V. if you beat C.S. who drops a bit now (ha ha).

    (C.S. is not really a person in case you think I'm being nasty, well actually it is all of us together -- group hug).

    Also the sunshine hours turned out to be 72% of normal which is not going to affect the scoring much although I did check the numbers, in every case it helps you by a point here or there.

    The IMT as DE stated was 13.7, and the max 25.6 at Phoenix Park (28th) but my memory of the minimum was slightly defective, it was 3.9 (1st Dublin) which again won't change any scores because of the use of the "mercy rule" which maintains everyone's score there.

    What happens now? As I slowly wake up here after a dreadful all-nighter on a different agenda, I hope to post the adjusted scoring quite soon over in the annual thread and then if I can stay awake I will update the annual, otherwise do that closer to 9 p.m. your time. Sorry about the slight changes, or glad to be of help, depending on which way you go. If anyone has overlooked October, get over there soon before I lock the door.


Advertisement