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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

24

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Tonight's runs continue to show generally a big improvement in our weather, particularly eastern areas which have had close to a month's worth of rain since the 1st of July.

    The past 48 hours has brought an end to the deluges and a drying scene. This looks like continuing with only relative small amounts of rain or showers at times over the next 7 to 10 days.

    Latest GFS runs show a fairly dry scene over the next 7 to 10 days. Something we haven't seen in quiet a while.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=18&date=2020-07-11&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Latest GFS rainfall predictions show a very dry scene over the next 10 days with less than 10mm over most of the country and only trace amounts of rain in some areas, particularly the midlands.

    222-777UK.GIF?12-18

    Temperatures lifting up from Thursday into Friday as a ridge builds over the country.

    168-580UK.GIF?12-18

    192-580UK.GIF?12-18

    210-580UK.GIF?12-18

    Temperatures next weekend possibly reaching 23 to 25C in many areas if the lows from the north don't topple in over the ridge.

    GEM going for some very warm temperatures next weekend as well and the higher pressure staying with us for longer but perhaps these are an outlier, while the GFS temperatures are more realistic.

    GEMOPUK12_168_5.png

    GEMOPUK12_192_5.png

    GEMOPUK12_240_5.png

    The GEM ensembles show that the GEM Operational is indeed an outlier with temperatures close to 30C in some areas, but overall most of the members are fairly warm anyway.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64969&var=201&run=12&date=2020-07-11&model=gem&member=ENS&bw=1

    The UKMO looks a bit more knifes edge for us towards next weekend:

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

    The ECM also goes for an interruption next weekend with cooler and more unsettled weather.

    ECMOPEU12_192_1.png

    If the GFS and GEM models verify we could be well on our way to the warmest weather of the year next weekend. I think this will downgrade as we move towards next weekend. We could end up with one or two warm days with temperatures getting into the low twenties but I think by the time the real hot air get's close the Atlantic will break through, maybe only England and perhaps Wales getting proper warmth for a day or so next Sunday and into Monday.

    Fingers crossed the GEM wins out with it's warmer and more prolonged spell of summer weather!.

    My confidence isn't great on this one, particularly with the UKMO and ECM not really on board with it to the same extent. We will need a few more days of model runs similar to this and both the ECM and UKMO to agree with the other two models to start believing!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    UKMO and ECM again high pressure dominated by weekend with pretty much all of the country into the dry conditions. ECM is a warm solution.

    GFS doesn't agree and brings in a northerly. Mainly settled for Ireland up until the deep depths of FI however with high pressure frequently over us. Not warm however. GFS was in the lower end of its ensembles too though not quite an outlier.

    GEM is very settled and tries to bring in a northwesterly but not much is made of it and high pressure is the dominant player.

    Think starting to see more clarity but I'll wait longer for agreement and things to become clear. We've all been made a fool of before.

    All models named at t144:

    XI5CXqh.png

    bO1ol8G.png

    gkEMQrH.png

    mH1HtOi.png

    Things upstream still not conducive to any prolonged warm and dry weather in my opinion with arctic blocking set to increase according to ECM.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    It would appear we are unlikely to see anything more than a day or two of settled weather at a time over the next 2 weeks as the current pattern remains right up to the end of July.

    Charts generally stick with a flat westerly and even some cold northerly shots mixed in. From this Sunday we will have a July cold snap to begin next week with several days of very cool temperatures. However it does look fairly dryish over the next week with only small amounts of rain or showers, so it won't be completely dry.

    Temperatures stage a recovery to near normal values from the 23rd of July but it comes much more unsettled again with plenty of rain or showers with temperatures either normal or a little below. It looks like the azores will have another go at trying to influence our weather from next Wednesday but as has been the way throughout this summer, the Azores is unlikely to get here and will instead be kept to our south with bands of rain or showers from the Atlantic rolling in on top of it.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2020-07-15&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Early next week could have some rather chilly days and nights with night time values getting down to 4 or 5C in places, almost chilly enough for a frost.

    GFSOPUK06_117_5.png

    Day time temperatures early next week will struggle between 12 and 16C generally, particularly if there is very little sunshine on offer.

    GFSOPUK06_129_5.png

    Second half of next week may see temperatures recover to 14 to 17C generally, maybe one or two places could hit 19C or 20C if we get lucky with any sunshine that's going.

    Not much rain over the next week other than drizzly bits of rain or showers but from next Wednesday it does turn generally wetter. Rainfall over the next 10 day period generally giving 20 to 30mm of rain across most parts with up to 50mm in parts of the west and north.

    240-777UK.GIF?15-6

    There is very little sign of a return to warmer and sunnier conditions any time soon. We may have to wait for August or September to get any sort of warm, dry and settled weather for longer than 1 or 2 days. At this stage i'm expecting July to finish up between 1 and 2 degree's below average with very low levels of sunshine overall.

    We've had a very long run of poor Augusts in general but I have to wonder can August be as bad as July has been, will this pattern that has persisted throughout the summer eventually break into something warmer and more settled? Only time will tell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 282 ✭✭eon1208


    Them flat white rainfall lines auger well into the next 8 days. Not ideal temps but not often we get sustained dry weather in Ireland. MTC is giving 20 c plus temps. It will be perfect if it pans out with a bit of a moderate drying wind.


  • Registered Users Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Wine Goddess


    Any forecast for the final week of July? Is it still forecast to be intermittent bouts of LP and some drier days?
    I'm not hopeful for any settled warmth!
    Thanks for any information you can give!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It seems we are stuck in this pattern of a ridge giving us a couple of settled days before fronts move again. I suppose it has to change at some stage, lets hope it happens before September.

    The European long range model does offer some hope after the first week of August


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Any forecast for the final week of July? Is it still forecast to be intermittent bouts of LP and some drier days?
    I'm not hopeful for any settled warmth!
    Thanks for any information you can give!

    the last week of July is looking cool and unsettled and this may persist into the first week of August. No change with the weather pattern for the foreseeable future.

    GFSOPEU06_195_1.png

    GFSOPEU06_312_1.png

    GFSOPEU06_384_1.png

    no shortage of low pressures around Ireland right up to the end of FI.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    It seems we are stuck in this pattern of a ridge giving us a couple of settled days before fronts move again. I suppose it has to change at some stage, lets hope it happens before September.

    The European long range model does offer some hope after the first week of August

    The long range models have performed well for most of the year but they have been well off the mark this July as they were showing a big improvement for July up to very recently and still hinting at a dryer August and Autumn. The short range models have correctly modeled an unsettled scene since the middle of June and there is no sign of any break in this pattern from the shorter range models.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    The truth hurts.

    Weekend doesnt look too bad though and there will be gaps between all these rainy days.

    Even sunshine and showers will beat the mist and dank of July.

    I still think August will be a big improvement on July but last week of July does look horrid doesnt it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Gonzo wrote: »
    The long range models have performed well for most of the year but they have been well off the mark this July as they were showing a big improvement for July up to very recently and still hinting at a dryer August and Autumn. The short range models have correctly modeled an unsettled scene since the middle of June and there is no sign of any break in this pattern from the shorter range models.

    Well, we just have to hope July was a blip. Hopefully the ec46 is on to something for the second week of August, that it's not just a nw/se split regarding settled weather.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 328 ✭✭scouserstation


    Indeed it's not a pretty picture being painted for the end of July but it's still a long way out and the models have been wrong several times already this summer, fingers crossed, there's still a chance we could get some prolonged dry settled weather over the next 3 - 4 weeks


  • Registered Users Posts: 10 BIMMERAG


    Indeed it's not a pretty picture being painted for the end of July but it's still a long way out and the models have been wrong several times already this summer, fingers crossed, there's still a chance we could get some prolonged dry settled weather over the next 3 - 4 weeks

    How is it that when the long term models are signalling poor weather they are rarely wrong and when they are signalling an improvement or "summer weather" they are rarely right? Is it because bad weather is easier to predict?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,631 ✭✭✭Doctor Jimbob


    BIMMERAG wrote: »
    How is it that when the long term models are signalling poor weather they are rarely wrong and when they are signalling an improvement or "summer weather" they are rarely right? Is it because bad weather is easier to predict?

    I'm not an expert by any means but I would assume it's down to the fact that unsettled weather is our default.


  • Registered Users Posts: 328 ✭✭scouserstation


    BIMMERAG wrote: »
    How is it that when the long term models are signalling poor weather they are rarely wrong and when they are signalling an improvement or "summer weather" they are rarely right? Is it because bad weather is easier to predict?

    Not necessarily, I recall on several occasions during summer 2018 when unsettled weather was predicted and it never materialised, I think what happens is the models see a pattern happening across the Pacific and the Atlantic and they try predict how that will effect the jet stream, it just so happens we are located in the wrong location and are wide open to the effects of the jet stream movement ie. an unpredictable pattern


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 837 ✭✭✭John O.Groats


    Going on previous year`s weather patterns August will likely be another write off as far as any prolonged settled spell of weather is concerned. September may possibly bring something better.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,230 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    What's the weather currently looking like for th4 August Bank holiday weekend. We have our staycation planned for then and would like to know if is it looking wet at the moment? Cool and dry suits me fine but constant rain will make me rethink.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Sammy2012 wrote: »
    What's the weather currently looking like for th4 August Bank holiday weekend. We have our staycation planned for then and would like to know if is it looking wet at the moment? Cool and dry suits me fine but constant rain will make me rethink.

    The August bank holiday weekend is looking more of the same, rain or showers with unsettled conditions, but that's a long way off at the very extended range of FI and may change before then.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    After a few dry and bright days big changes are on the way to something much more unsettled. It is looking particularly wet and cool next week and we may end July on a very wet note.

    Start of August looks more of the same, staying on the wet and cool side with no real sign of any warmth or dry spells for the foreseeable future. Temperatures between 1 and 2 degree's below average for the next 7 to 10 days. We may see things drying out a bit as we head into the 1st week of August, but still looks remaining mixed with temperatures remaining below average into the 1st and possibly second week of August.

    Latest GFS ensembles look generally cool and wet with no shortage of rainfall.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2020-07-21&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Charts generally look unsettled most days including the bank holiday weekend.

    GFSOPEU06_276_1.png

    Plenty of rain over the next 7 days with up to 60mm in places with all areas of the country seeing bands of rain at times and frequent showers, looks a bit dryer towards the south with less in the way of rainfall compared to the northern half of the country.

    240-777UK.GIF?21-6

    Temperatures generally between 12 and 20C over the next 14 days with best chance of high teens across the south and east during dry and sunny interludes.

    ECM keeps it cool and unsettled too particularly the final week of July into the first few days of August.

    MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20200720_w2.png

    MonthlyAnomalies_Rain_20200720_w2.png

    It's not just Ireland that will have cool and unsettled weather, this cool and unsettled remains for the UK, northern Germany and much of Scandinavia as well.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The mixed bag and cooler than average theme continues from the 12Z ECM, possibly a few decent enough days in there but rain never far away. The Low pressure at the end of the run if it tracked like that could produce heavy thundery rain coming in from the SW , but of course that is an age away or may never happen being so far out .

    Temperatures look like being in the mid to high teens maybe touching 20 ish range past +120hrs, best in the S, SE and E it would seem at this stage.

    Seems like a long time since we had some notable weather event to follow.

    XtPPWUf.gif


    dDbusVy.gif



    ebTfnQ0.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 328 ✭✭scouserstation


    Looking at the charts we have an unsettled weekend in store before a possible improvement during next week, jet stream forecast showing a weak 2-3 day ridge allowing high pressure across the south of the country before a low system moves in towards the bank holiday weekend


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yeah nothing great but even though its mixed the good thing about mixed is there are also days that are nice. Like last Sunday was lovely and sunny and there will probably some of those days where they forecast isolated showers that will be dry throughout. I can live with that. What I cant live with is what the first 15 days of July gave us. Mist rain darkness wind and 12 to 14c.

    At least temperatures these days are 17 or 18c even in the mucky Northwest.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z on Steroids this evening. Showing some active weather systems and very high rainfall totals coming in from the SW dragging up warm and very moist air from the Tropics and running into colder air mass over Ireland. Showing big fluctuations in colder and warmer air mass with some fairly high potential of Thunderstorms and heavy rain at times I reckon. Bit windy also at times but nothing severe showing up . Some of the systems look slow moving so could drop large amounts of rainfall especially over higher terrain. The Jet staying on the wrong side of us. GFS not as severe as the ECM. Gonzo has mentioned the GEM model as being quite accurate over the last few months, it is quite similar to the ECM Thurs / Fri next week with a big slow moving LP system moving up over us.

    wGvf62P.gif

    3vhUCR2.gif

    nQo8Q66.gif

    yNUiczo.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Perhaps of interest... it is now confirmed, thanks to a recent study, that the pandemic had a major impact on NWP and forecasting.

    https://twitter.com/DrPaulDWilliams/status/1286369739791630337?s=20


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 0Z went on to show a stronger Hp over Ireland around next Thurs / Fri keeping out some of the Atlantic weather and giving less rainfall but this evenings run shows the previous modeled Lp system making more inroads again later Thurs / Fri but with a lot less rainfall those days. Not showing as high rainfall totals as yesterdays run but still quite wet at times more so up until midweek .

    Interesting tweet above, been a frustrating time these last few months trying to get a handle on forecasts , even trying to get a trend at times is difficult, there has been some very big swings in forecasts even in the short term but the observing will go on ! :)

    On a personal level will be watching out for the August Bank Holiday week.

    Currently nothing inspiring from the GFS . ECM just might let the Azores Hp ridge up over us ???




    M73YkEh.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM holding the weather pattern for next week into the weekend with little deviation the last couple of runs, on the cooler side in general with one or two warm days in there maybe. Not looking great at the moment for the Long weekend especially for the Western side of the country. Looks fairly dry mid week

    lJMEaip.gif

    CX9REW3.gif


    773Zmkg.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Serious disagreement between the GFS and ECM for the long weekend now, with the GFS building a lovely ridge over us towards the end of this week and blocking the Atlantic low:

    HUwmD3Q.gif

    The ECM, on the other hand, allows the jet to push the ridge away and the low then dominates the weekend:

    0fHZKcv.gif

    Normally I'd resignedly defer to the ECM, but with all the forecasting uncertainty so far this year I'm still holding out hope for a warm and dry bank holiday :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,885 ✭✭✭OldRio


    I'm a GFS guy myself. Seriously it's the hope that kills.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    12z GFS doesn't bring as much of a ridge but still has the jet further north over next weekend, making settled and warm conditions a lot more likely than this morning's ECM. Will be interesting to see, if the two models remain in disagreement for the next day or two, which one eventually comes out on top.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    July has been another poor summer month, aside from the 4 day dry spell last week it has mostly been unsettled and often on the cool side. How does the final week of July and first week of August look?

    Everything still looks fairly unsettled, however we are starting to see a trend towards warmer and cooler interludes rather than remaining in the mid to upper teens most of the time. Rainfall is beginning to look slightly less than it did, but still mixed. The opening 10 days of July have in my opinion been the worst part of summer so far and it doesn't look like the next 2 weeks will be as bad as that.

    Tomorrow looks like a poor day with an area of low pressure and plenty of heavy rain or showers across the country with some spot flooding likely in places. 20 to 35mm of rain is likely, especially across the west and north but heavy rain in all areas. Heaviest of the rain will be overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning but it should clear off as the day goes on. Temperatures tomorrow only 10 or 11C in the very far north to 17 or 18C across the south and south-east.

    Once we get tomorrow out of the way, the rest of the week is looking much drier particularly for eastern and southern areas. Showers still likely across the west and north at times throughout the week.

    Tuesday and Wednesday see's things drying out however showers still possible in the north-west at times. Temperatures around average or a little below ranging 12 to 19C, warmest across the south. A fair deal of cloud but should be some sunny breaks at times. Wednesday will be the dryer of the two days with most places staying dry throughout Wednesday. However a spell of rain is likely to cross the country Wednesday night.

    Thursday see's a mostly dry and at times sunny day across the eastern and southern areas. Temperatures will begin to lift up between 18 and 21C in many places, especially across the east, south and midlands. Thursday should remain mostly dry but there is the threat of a rain band edging into western areas, how far inland that get's remains to be seen and temperatures will lower in areas affected by the rainfall.

    Friday is likely to be wet across western and northern areas although this could turn rather patchy as it makes it's way eastwards. Staying dry for much of Friday across the east and south and if sunny spells occur it could turn fairly warm with temperatures reaching possibly 23C or 24C across parts of Leinster and the south-east if decent spells of sunshine occur. Temperatures elsewhere mid to high teens with the lower values in the more cloudy and wet areas.

    Outlook:
    Cooler from the weekend but remaining mostly mild and staying rather mixed. Temperatures generally 16 to 21C. There is the possibility that the air may become more unstable with some warm uppers mixing in with unsettled conditions as warmth will try to move in from the south at times during the first 2 weeks of August. This could lead to thunderstorm activity if the right conditions are meet. The beginning of August does look mixed with fairly average temperatures and regular rainfall, however some warm or very warm days are possible but these would be very brief and potentially unstable if they happen.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Just what you need for a Bank Holiday Weekend !!


    Long way off of course, with the way the models have been going lately would want to see this in a number of runs before giving it any notice.

    vQcFuOY.gif


This discussion has been closed.
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