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Light Snow - Overnight Wed/Thu 6th/7th January 2021

13567…25

Comments

  • #62
    SEPT 23 1989
    Registered Users Posts: 43,024 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    Snowing

    Newcastle Dublin


  • #63
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭[Deleted User]


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Winds are from the SW which is off land for me.

    I didn't state a fact! I just asked a question! And I just stated what the met Éireann forecaster said at 755am
    You are looking for a land breeze and how far inland that is travelling before getting to you


  • #64
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Looking at GF’s run, this run appears to be an upgrade. Temperatures here rise to 0c and are back below 0c by 6am after the event has passed.

    850hPa’s only briefly rise to -4c and are back down to -6c after the front.

    Precipitation type appears to be all snow also, so this is actually looking good so far.
    Could u show the whole country on those charts we don’t all live where u are.


  • #65
    torres9kop
    Registered Users Posts: 384 ✭✭torres9kop


    What are the chances for lying snow in Dublin 4 next few days??


  • #66
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    davidsr20 wrote: »
    Could u show the whole country on those charts we don’t all live where u are.


    The site he is posting images from is: https://meteologix.com/ie

    MOD NOTE: If possible, when quoting other's posts - remove the [ img ] and everything in between [ /img ] to save thread space - particularly if the other's post has multiple imagery.

    Many thanks!


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  • #67
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭[Deleted User]


    torres9kop wrote: »
    What are the chances for lying snow in Dublin 4 next few days??

    06z Icon thinks there will be falling snow at least Friday morning for you anyway


    overview_20210106_06_048.jpg.2b05888d75ede9a69326bc4de1a911e8.jpg


  • #68
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    There isn’t much snow for the rest of the island. The snow intensity fades as soon as the front heads southeast.

    It appears to me that there will be very light snow (that might fizzle away) in the centre portions of the island. Galway etc won’t get snow due to the SW wind coming off the Atlantic.

    There may be small pulses of heavier snow in some places south of Ulster (but not SE).

    QsxXhJD.jpg

    wmLksi1.jpg

    Xf0Rbti.jpg


  • #69
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭[Deleted User]


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    There isn’t much snow for the rest of the island. The snow intensity fades as soon as the front heads southeast.

    It appears to me that there will be very light snow (that might fizzle away) in the centre portions of the island. Galway etc won’t get snow due to the SW wind coming off the Atlantic.

    There may be small pulses of heavier snow in some places south of Ulster (but not SE).

    I think from Athlone,& Ofally North meath to Louth up to cavan monaghan across to Fermanagh,Tyrone and inland sligo (Tubercurry;)) could be the sweet spot for most snow off this


  • #70
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Sounds like there is a decent chance of a small covering in Dublin. Always a bit hit and miss but we had a dusting of snow in Dublin a week or so ago when I expected nothing.
    torres9kop wrote: »
    What are the chances for lying snow in Dublin 4 next few days??


  • #71
    daniel_t1409
    Closed Accounts Posts: 366 ✭✭daniel_t1409


    Is there a chance of snow in wexford? or is this another event that only affects the north of the country?


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  • #72
    begbysback
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,910 ✭✭✭begbysback


    Is this like the bhig schnow of 1982 & 2016?


  • #73
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,132 ✭✭✭highdef


    begbysback wrote: »
    Is this like the bhig schnow of 1982 & 2016?

    No


  • #74
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    begbysback wrote: »
    Is this like the bhig schnow of 1982 & 2016?

    Tomorrow (7th Jan) will be the 39th anniversary of the mother of all snow events, in the east anyway.


  • #75
    begbysback
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,910 ✭✭✭begbysback


    highdef wrote: »
    No

    That’s a shame, given that we are in lockdown anyways, we could have killed two birds with one stone.


  • #76
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Met Office warning, looking good!

    “ A band of rain, sleet and snow is likely to push southeast across Northern Ireland on Wednesday night before clearing during Thursday. Away from some northern and eastern coasts, this will fall mainly as snow with accumulations of 1-2 cm possible. 2-5 cm of snow is possible on hills above about 150 m. Accumulating snow may well affect the Glenshane Pass. Snow should ease, whilst probably turning back to rain, early Thursday. Regardless of snow accumulation, after several cold days, ice is likely to be relatively widespread on untreated surfaces.”

    No altitude mentioned which is a great sign!

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?id=e3f9cfd4-9634-4f04-92c1-6851efff24a7&date=2021-01-07&details


  • #77
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,132 ✭✭✭highdef


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Met Office warning, looking good!

    “ A band of rain, sleet and snow is likely to push southeast across Northern Ireland on Wednesday night before clearing during Thursday. Away from some northern and eastern coasts, this will fall mainly as snow with accumulations of 1-2 cm possible. 2-5 cm of snow is possible on hills above about 150 m. Accumulating snow may well affect the Glenshane Pass. Snow should ease, whilst probably turning back to rain, early Thursday. Regardless of snow accumulation, after several cold days, ice is likely to be relatively widespread on untreated surfaces.”

    No altitude mentioned which is a great sign!

    Altitude is mentioned, the forecast is showing more or less a dusting below 150m with appreciable depths (still not much though) above 150m. It also mentioned that it will be mainly of snow away from the north coast and you are not too far from a northwest coast (Lough Foyle).

    Another thing to note (for your location) is that according to the ECM model, the wind is to switch to a sea based northwesterly aspect around midnight whilst precipitation is still falling, together with a fairly substantial increase of temperatures into the low to middle single digit territory. If the model is correct, you may well wake to a slushy mess at best.


  • #78
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    highdef wrote: »
    Altitude is mentioned, the forecast is showing more or less a dusting below 150m with appreciable depths (still not much though) above 150m. It also mentioned that it will be mainly of snow away from the north coast and you are not too far from a northwest coast (Lough Foyle).

    Another thing to note (for your location) is that according to the ECM model, the wind is to switch to a sea based northwesterly aspect around midnight whilst precipitation is still falling, together with a fairly substantial increase of temperatures into the low to middle single digit territory. If the model is correct, you may well wake to a slushy mess at best.

    No, that’s not true. My coast is the North coast which is about 10 miles away. The warning mentions “mainly snow”. And the charts seem to show that.

    I did look at the wind and it is showing SW until 5am, which the Met office also shows for me.

    The main concern is keeping the precipitation away until after midnight.


  • #79
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,115 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Status Yellow - Snow/Ice warning for Ireland

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Snow and ice will lead to treacherous conditions. Some accumulations possible.

    Valid: 23:00 Wednesday 06/01/2021 to 11:00 Thursday 07/01/2021

    Issued: 11:00 Wednesday 06/01/2021


  • #80
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭[Deleted User]


    I think a lot is dependent on the islands own cooling and mitigating the marine affect which is why I'd also agree with Gaoth Láidir that if Fridays Irish sea precipitation moves in on Friday morning,you'll need lots of height to see snow


  • #81
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Shannon's latest TAF now also includes a slight chance of freezing rain before light snow before freezing fog!
    TAF EINN 061100Z 0612/0712 VRB03KT 9999 FEW030
    PROB40 TEMPO 0618/0624 0300 FZFG BKN001
    TEMPO 0701/0706 2000 RASN BKN005
    PROB30 TEMPO 0701/0705 4000 FZRA
    PROB30 TEMPO 0701/0705 1400 -SN BKN003
    PROB40 TEMPO 0706/0711 0300 FZFG BKN001=


    The others still go with light snow a given. Knock and Belfast Aldergrove both go for moderate snow (visibilities 200 - 400 m).
    DUBLIN TAF AMD EIDW 061116Z 0612/0712 35008KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030
    BECMG 0617/0619 27007KT
    PROB30 TEMPO 0618/0703 0300 FZFG BKN001
    BECMG 0704/0706 24010KT 4000 -RASN BKN008
    TEMPO 0704/0708 1200 -SN BKN003
    BECMG 0707/0709 29010KT 9999 NSW=

    CORK TAF EICK 061100Z 0612/0712 34008KT 9999 FEW010
    PROB40 TEMPO 0622/0704 2000 BR BKN004
    PROB30 TEMPO 0622/0703 0300 FZFG BKN001
    TEMPO 0705/0710 2000 -SN BKN004
    TEMPO 0710/0712 BKN004=

    KNOCK TAF EIKN 061100Z 0612/0712 VRB03KT 9999 FEW020
    BECMG 0620/0622 2000 -RASN BKN005
    TEMPO 0621/0703 0200 SN FG BKN001
    BECMG 0703/0705 9999 NSW BKN015
    PROB30 TEMPO 0703/0706 4000 BR BKN005
    BECMG 0706/0708 32010KT=

    TAF EGAA 061058Z 0612/0712 31003KT 9999 SCT040
    BECMG 0623/0702 SCT003 BKN008
    TEMPO 0700/0706 0400 SN BKN001
    PROB30 TEMPO 0700/0706 FZRA
    PROB40 TEMPO 0706/0712 3000 SHRASN BKN003
    BECMG 0707/0710 FEW012 SCT025=


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  • #82
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    I must say it is very rare for a front coming in off the Atlantic to give snow (maybe temporarily)


  • #83
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,132 ✭✭✭highdef


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    No, that’s not true. My coast is the North coast which is about 10 miles away. The warning mentions “mainly snow”. And the charts seem to show that.

    I did look at the wind and it is showing SW until 5am, which the Met office also shows for me.

    The main concern is keeping the precipitation away until after midnight.

    OK, I was going by direct mathematical output from the European Computer Model. I'm not saying it's correct, I can only interpret the information from it.

    I had a look on metoffice.gov.uk and it doesn't show anything more than sleet for both Coleraine and Limavady for tonight with temperatures in the overnight period between 1 and 3c for those locations. Now, if you are between those towns and have that high ground to your north, it "might" sway you to the correct side of marginal but 50m ASL might not cut it. Location wise, if I were to draw a line from Limavady and Coleraine, would you live somewhere along that line? Would you be somewhere along that line but further inland and if so, how much further? On Google Maps, I see a little townland called Ringsend east of Limavady and south west of Coleraine. If you live near enough to this area, you might have a far enough land fetch for snow to fall and accumulate with a north or northwest wind source.


  • #84
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    I am seeing a SW wind in all of the models. I looked for this immediately as the wind affects marginality here.


  • #85
    YanSno
    Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    I am seeing a SW wind in all of the models. I looked for this immediately as the wind affects marginality here.

    Winds will be onshore in a northerly direction around midnight for the north. Leading edge will be snow but soon after midnight it will be sleet and rain for the north and north west


  • #86
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    You are all determined that I won’t see snow.


  • #87
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    YanSno wrote: »
    Winds will be onshore in a northerly direction around midnight for the north. Leading edge will be snow but soon after midnight it will be sleet and rain for the north and north west

    No. The wind veers from straight South, to SW between midnight and 5am.

    You can see on the charts that the winds are southerly even off the coast.


  • #88
    YanSno
    Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    It's years of experience we have seen it all before especially here in the east coast


  • #89
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Well I am not on the immediate coast. I am about 10 miles from the north coast.

    I do have water to my NW but that only affects me with a WNW or NW wind which it is not going to be.


  • #90
    Humberto Salazar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    You are all determined that I won’t see snow.

    Snowman pics with date visible, that'll be proof. I doubt I'll make a snowball in Offaly but a dusting will be nice to look at I suppose.


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  • #91
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,132 ✭✭✭highdef


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    You are all determined that I won’t see snow.

    Nobody is determined for you to have a certain type of weather that we decide on. As YanSno said, regular posters with years of experience are basing their forecasts on numerical data plus the experiences of similar events in the past.

    Unless there is some sort of wave near my location, I'm expecting very little snow tonight, about 40km from the east coast of Dublin.


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