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24-04-2019, 14:10   #1
Meteorite58
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Storm Hannah : Fri 26 - Sat 27 April 2019

Time to start a thread for the potentially stormy weather in the SW for Fri /Sat coming. Bit of a spread on the models yet which is to be expected at this stage but it is being well flagged for a number of days now.

Warning levels will probably change upwards as we get closer to the event.

EDIT: Updated Fri 16.11










STATUS RED - WIND WARNING FOR KERRY
Northwesterly winds, associated with Storm Hannah, will reach mean speeds in excess of 80km/h with violent gusts of 130 to 150 km/h in places this evening between 6pm and 8pm.

Issued: Friday 26 April 2019 15:00

Valid from: Friday 26 April 2019 18:00 to Friday 26 April 2019 20:00



Status Red - Wind warning for Clare
Northwesterly winds, associated with Storm Hannah, will reach mean speeds in excess of 80km/h with violent gusts of 130 to 150 km/h for a time this evening.

Valid: Friday 26 April 2019 20:00 to Friday 26 April 2019 23:00

Issued: Friday 26 April 2019 11:00

Updated: Friday 26 April 2019 11:00


Status Orange - Wind warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
Northwesterly winds, associated with Storm Hannah, will reach mean speeds of 65-80 km/h with gusts of 110 to 130 km/h this evening/early tonight.

Valid: Friday 26 April 2019 16:00 to Saturday 27 April 2019 01:00

Issued: Friday 26 April 2019 10:00

Updated: Friday 26 April 2019 10:00

Status: Orange
Wind warning for Galway
Status Orange - Wind warning for Galway
Northwesterly winds, associated with Storm Hannah, will reach mean speeds of 65-80 km/h with gusts of 110 to 130 km/h this evening/early tonight, strongest along the coast.

Valid: Friday 26 April 2019 19:00 to Friday 26 April 2019 23:59

Issued: Friday 26 April 2019 10:00

Updated: Friday 26 April 2019 10:00


Status Red - Wind warning for Clare
Northwesterly winds, associated with Storm Hannah, will reach mean speeds in excess of 80km/h with violent gusts of 130 to 150 km/h for a time this evening.

Valid: Friday 26 April 2019 20:00 to Friday 26 April 2019 23:00

Issued: Friday 26 April 2019 11:00

Updated: Friday 26 April 2019 12.32





Status: Orange
Wind warning for Tipperary and Waterford
Status Orange - Wind warning for Tipperary and Waterford
In addition to the yellow wind alert for these counties: Southwest winds veering northwest will reach mean speed of 65 to 80km/h and gusts of 110 to 120km/h for a time tonight.

Valid: Friday 26 April 2019 22:00 to Saturday 27 April 2019 02:00

Issued: Friday 26 April 2019 04:00

Updated: Friday 26 April 2019 04:00












From met eireann

After an unseasonably warm and settled Easter Weekend, our weather is looking very disturbed and unsettled as we head through the rest of this week, with potentially stormy conditions for the southwest of the country later on Friday, 26th April. With many trees now in leaf, this system has the potential to result in trees down leading to power outages and dangerous driving conditions, so stay up to date with the forecast over the coming days.

Met Éireann forecasters are monitoring a developing low pressure system currently tracking towards Newfoundland just off the northeastern Canadian coast, which is expected to engage with the Jet Stream and travel eastwards across the Atlantic over the next couple of days. Conditions look ripe for rapid deepening of the low to take place as it comes across the North Atlantic, and a storm system is likely to form at sea by Friday morning.

Present indications suggest the storm system will be starting to fill as it comes towards Ireland’s west and southwest coasts on Friday evening, however, the track of the system is still a little uncertain. We’ll obviously be firming up on the details over the coming 24 hours, but, for now, a wind advisory has been issued for counties Cork and Kerry.

Last edited by Meteorite58; 26-04-2019 at 16:11.
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24-04-2019, 14:18   #2
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The ECM showing the LP keeping more or less to the same track and strength for the last two runs. Fairly strong winds for the time of year what with trees coming into leaf .











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24-04-2019, 14:30   #3
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GFS quite similar to the ECM, ICON a bit further N and ARPEGE up further again. A bit far out yet for the ARPEGE's reliable range, although it is holding this track and strength fairly consistent for a number of runs, and ICON prone to overcooking it a bit so ECM would probably be the one to go by atm. Will see if it holds the track on the next run coming out this evening.

So currently looks like winds gusting up to 120 km/h on Kerry / Cork coasts and up to 100 inland in those counties and somewhere between 100 and 110 up along the Western coasts, gusting up to 80 or 90 inland. Just a preliminary guess on my part, interested to hear others opinions.





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24-04-2019, 14:35   #4
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UKMO tracking a bit further N than the ECM on the latest run yet ECM a bit deeper perhaps.





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24-04-2019, 15:56   #5
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GFS has been very consistent in keeping it further South and thus keeping strongest winds well off the South Coast, wonder will it jump North over next few runs.
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24-04-2019, 16:50   #6
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There goes the Cherry Blossoms!
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24-04-2019, 17:30   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Villain View Post
GFS has been very consistent in keeping it further South and thus keeping strongest winds well off the South Coast, wonder will it jump North over next few runs.

Similar track again, maybe a bit less strong in this run. On the other hand ICON also holding its track and looks a bit stronger on it's latest run but much higher than the ECM and UKMO.



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24-04-2019, 17:41   #8
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ARPEGE 12Z looks like a violent storm in this run, very similar to ICON but looks stronger which is saying something. Gusts 130 -140 Km/h winds hitting the coasts and 120 inland, widespread gusts 100Km/h in Munster. But too early to know for certain, wind predictions are usually less than originally shown in the models nearer the event , on rare occasions they increase .Now if the ECM shows something similar in a couple of hours then we could be in for a bad storm.

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24-04-2019, 17:50   #9
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UKMO 12Z Similar to last run , not as steep a gradient as the earlier ECM run but that could be down to map styles.





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24-04-2019, 20:33   #10
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ECM 12Z out now and showing similar track as earlier , showing as strong winds as previous run and stronger offshore gusting 150 km/h and along exposed coastal fringes of W and S Kerry and W Cork gusting to 130 km/h , gusting 120km/ h N Kerry coast and probably around 110 km/ h Cork coast. Gusting around 90 to 100 km/ h inland Kerry and Cork. Not showing winds as strong penetrating inland as the other European models. Currently looks like gusting up to 100km/ h along W and S , SE coasts and up around 80 km/ h inland for a time.
The storm is filling and moving along quickly. On its present track it is pulling the strongest winds away from Ireland relatively quickly.

All subject to change of course, just what it looks like to me atm.
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24-04-2019, 22:00   #11
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This seems very unusual for this time of year??
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24-04-2019, 22:45   #12
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The 18z gfs moving more into line with other models now with the system further North.
Needs watching this one!!
South coast most at risk
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24-04-2019, 23:21   #13
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Originally Posted by JanuarySnowstor View Post
The 18z gfs moving more into line with other models now with the system further North.
Needs watching this one!!
South coast most at risk
Yes tracking further N on 18Z run, probably more N now than ECM , showing wind speeds a bit lower than ECM but still gusting around 120 km/h on Kerry coast , 110 coastal area, 100 inland Kerry , gust around 100 along W and S coasts wide area in Southern half of country gusting around 80 km/ h.

I think all the models upgraded the wind speeds today.
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24-04-2019, 23:28   #14
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Icon would be particularly severe for far southwest.
Models firming up on an orange alert.
Do they continue to name storms this far into Spring??
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24-04-2019, 23:38   #15
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Originally Posted by JanuarySnowstor View Post
Icon would be particularly severe for far southwest.
Models firming up on an orange alert.
Do they continue to name storms this far into Spring??
Yes I believe they let them run on.

Looks very likely Orange for Kerry and close to red on coastal fringes , not sure anout Cork, possible high yellow, maybe get to Orange. Other coastal counties in the W , S , SE probably yellow . Still evolving.
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