Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
27-05-2019, 18:39   #46
Joe Public
Registered User
 
Joe Public's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,631
I took the liberty of posting this as it's a bit rare in late May, maybe today will give the highest rainfall of the month.

Celbridge, Co. Kildare

Attached Images
File Type: png Screenshot_2019-05-27-17-25-33-1.png (827.7 KB, 155 views)
Joe Public is offline  
Advertisement
29-05-2019, 07:57   #47
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,377
13.7 mm at Markree was Monday's top amount. Not quite the highest for the month.

Perhaps today or tomorrow will set the mark.

June forecast contest will be posted Thursday morning around 0500h I hope. On the road, need to think up a bonus question.
M.T. Cranium is online now  
Thanks from:
29-05-2019, 13:29   #48
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,800
Bonus

How many dry days with less than 1mm of rain in Markree in June?
pauldry is offline  
29-05-2019, 17:30   #49
Joe Public
Registered User
 
Joe Public's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,631
Bonus question June, what will be the highest temp at Shannon on June 5th which is the day Trump is due to arrive.
Joe Public is offline  
30-05-2019, 11:31   #50
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,800
Newport wettest for month 21.7mm yesterday. Today could match or beat it there.
pauldry is offline  
(2) thanks from:
Advertisement
30-05-2019, 12:28   #51
Tae laidir
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 463
Yes, Rainfall Radar showing a bad day.
Any Newportonians or Belmulletians out there?
Tae laidir is offline  
30-05-2019, 16:57   #52
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,377
Newport closing in on a higher amount today, already over 20 mm if you add the hourly reports on the "current observations" portion of the met.ie website (click on Newport on map to see that).

After the fourth week (with the extra day from earlier this month changing our usual schedule) ...

IMT on 10.7 and likely to finish around 10.9 now. The week of 23rd to 29th averaged 13.1 which was 1.1 above normal.

MAX and MIN unchanged, MAX could get bumped up slightly, MIN is probably set.

PRC now at 46% of normal with the past week at 98% of normal. Some further rainfall will perhaps put this over 50% but not much of that rain is hitting our eleven station grid in total. So PRC scoring seems likely to go off the mercy rule of minimum progression.

SUN took quite a hit from earlier high averages and is now barely above normal at 102% after this past week managed only 46% of normal values (274/600). At this rate we are likely to finish on or about normal (the lowest it could be with two overcast days would be 95%).

I may post some provisional numbers tomorrow when Newport has finished collecting rainfall, as our official numbers won't be confirmed until the 4th of June due to the weekend dates.
M.T. Cranium is online now  
31-05-2019, 09:50   #53
Tae laidir
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 463
Newport shows 26.8mm for yesterday (Thursday)
Tae laidir is offline  
(3) thanks from:
31-05-2019, 10:25   #54
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,800
They are around 26mm today (Friday)

Think Newports rain today is almost the same as yesterday

Last edited by pauldry; 31-05-2019 at 21:19.
pauldry is offline  
Advertisement
01-06-2019, 05:23   #55
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,377
Provisional scoring for May 2019

FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Max precip ____ TOTAL

Estimated values _______ 11.0_21.9_-3.1_060_097___26.8 Thurs


sryanbruen ____________21 _ 18*_ 22^_ 08*_ 09 ___ 6+2 _______ 86


DOCARCH _____________19 _ 10*_ 11*_ 12*_ 07 ___ 5+3 _______ 67

JCXBXC _______________19 _ 08*_ 14*_ 10*_ 07 ___ 7+1 _______ 66

200motels ____________ 19 _ 17*_ 02*_ 11*_ 07 ___ 7+2+1 _____ 66

Artane2002 ___________ 20 _ 12*_ 07*_ 10*_ 07 ___ 7+2+1 _____ 66

mickger844posts _______ 22 _ 17*_ 03*_ 12*_ 07 ___ 3+1 _______ 65

Dasa29 _______________25 _ 14*_ 05*_ 05*_ 09 ___ 3+1 _______ 62

Rameire ______________ 18 _ 15*__00 _ 08*_ 10 ___ 7+2+1 _____61

Sunflower3 ____________17 _ 12*_ 01*_ 13*_ 09 ___ 7+1 _______ 60

Joe Public _____________22 _ 02*_ 17*_ 06*_ 10 ___ 1+2 _______ 60

Adam240610 __________21 _ 13*__00 _ 10*_ 10 ___ 4+1 _______ 59

Tae laidir _____________17 _ 09*_ 01*_ 14*_ 07 ___ 7+2+1 _____ 58

Jpmarn ____ (-2) ______ 19 _ 17*_ 06*_ 05*_ 08 ___ 5+0 __ 60-2=58

YanSno ______________ 10 _ 19*_ 10*_ 02*_ 09 ___ 7+1 ________58


___ NormaL ___________ 24 _ 06*_ 05*_ 10*_ 09 ___ 3+1 _______ 58


M.T. Cranium __________ 23 _ 12*_ 09*__00 _ 09 ___ 1+3 _______ 57


___ Con Sensus ________20 _ 10*_ 04*_ 09*_ 08 ___ 6+0 _______ 57


Bsal _________________ 20 _ 08*_ 02*_ 13*_ 05 ___ 6+2 _______ 56

waterways ____________ 23 _ 01*_ 21^_ 02*_ 09 ___ 0+0 _______ 56

MrSkinner ____ (-1) ____ 16 _ 06*_ 08*_ 11*_ 08 ___ 7+0 __ 56-1= 55

Pauldry _______________20 _ 10*_ 01*_ 08*_ 10 ___ 4+0 _______ 53

Kindred Spirit __________19 _ 06*__00 _ 08*_ 06 ___ 7+2+1 _____ 49

Rikand _______________ 15 _ 06*_ 03*_ 12*_ 05 ___ 7+0 _______ 48

Dacogawa _____________20 _ 02*_ 02*_ 06*_ 08 ___ 1+2 _______ 41

john mac _____________ 14 _ 01*_ 04*_ 09*_ 07 ___ 3+1 _______ 39

BLIZZARD7__ (-10) _____12 _ 06*_ 12*_ 05*_ 06 ___ 1+0 __42-10=32

____________________________________________________________

Notes:

All estimated values may change slightly after review of final data in MS. IMT was 10.94 after 30 days, likely to edge up into 11.0 range.

Complete minimum progression scoring for MAX and PRC

Partial minimum progression for MIN, boosts limited to half by high scores including 20/20 for sryanbruen (half points rounded up). ...
^ ... for scoring fairness, have awarded PRC performance points as 2 superbonus points to sryanbruen and 1 to waterways.

Correct day for max rainfall Thursday 30th (guessed by DOCARCH and MTC), Friday 31st did not quite overtake (subject to review).

... neither of those were close on amounts, so no superbonus of 2 points ... some got 1 extra for a close guess on amount and one day off.

Scoring was relatively subdued other than sryanbruen who had a good handle on the outcome.

____________________________________________________________________________________


actual forecasts below ...


FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max precip (mm), day of week


john mac _____________ 12.1 _ 26.3 _ -0.9 _ 103 _ 110 ___ 42.0 _ Saturday

Rikand _______________ 12.0 _ 25.0 __ 0.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 25.0 _ Sunday

MrSkinner ____ (-1) ____ 11.9 _ 25.0 _ -1.4 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 29.0 _ Monday

Tae laidir _____________ 11.8 _ 24.6 _ -0.3 _ 087 _ 112 ___ 26.5 _ Wednesday

Sunflower3 ____________11.8 _ 24.0 _+0.2 _ 088 _ 102 ___ 25.0 _ Tuesday

Rameire ______________ 11.7 _ 23.4 _+0.5 _ 107 _ 099 ___ 23.0 _ Wednesday

Kindred Spirit __________11.6 _ 25.0 _+0.5 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 30.0 _ Wednesday

JCXBXC _______________11.6 _ 24.9 _ -2.2 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 22.0 _ Saturday

DOCARCH _____________11.6 _ 24.2 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 14.2 _ Thursday

200motels ____________ 11.6 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 092 _ 110 ___ 24.0 _ Friday

Dacogawa ____________ 11.5 _ 25.6 _ -0.5 _ 119 _ 105 ___ 49.0 _ Wednesday

Bsal _________________ 11.5 _ 24.5 _ -0.5 _ 088 _ 120 ___ 32.0 _ Wednesday


___ Con Sensus ________11.5 _ 24.2 _ -0.9 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 32.0 _ (see notes)


Pauldry _______________11.5 _ 24.2 _+0.2 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 39.0 _ Monday

Artane2002 ___________ 11.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.3 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 23.0 _ Friday

Adam240610 __________11.4 _ 23.8 _+1.1 _ 100 _ 097 ___ 38.0 _ Tuesday

Joe Public _____________11.3 _ 25.6 _ -2.7 _ 119 _ 096 ___ 47.2 _ Friday

waterways ____________ 11.2 _ 26.0 _ -3.0 _ 130 _ 088 ___ 50.0 _ Monday


___ NormaL ___________ 11.1 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 _ (scores 1/3)


Dasa29 ______________ 11.0 _ 23.5 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 40.0 _ Tuesday

M.T. Cranium __________10.8 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 45.0 _ Thursday

mickger844posts _______10.7 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 41.0 _ Tuesday

sryanbruen ___________ 10.6 _ 22.8 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 32.0 _ Friday

Jpmarn ____ (-2) ______ 10.4 _ 23.0 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 35.0 _ Sunday

BLIZZARD7__ (-10) _____ 9.7 _ 25.0 _ -4.3 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 47.0 _ Monday

YanSno _______________ 9.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.5 _ 130 _ 090 ___ 22.5 _ Saturday

____________________________________________________________

Con Sensus is median of 24 forecasts.

Choice of day was 5 for Wed (con will score 3/3), 4 for Monday, Tuesday, or Friday (con will score 2/3), 3 for Saturday (con will score 1/3) and 2 for Sunday or Thursday (con will score zero). Normal will score 1/3 for any outcome.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 01-06-2019 at 16:10. Reason: slight changes to PRC and SUN, one score adjusted (Rameire +1 on sun)
M.T. Cranium is online now  
01-06-2019, 10:19   #56
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,800
Well done sryan

Reward for all your indepth analysis and stats

I need a 100 in all the rest of months to catch up now!
pauldry is offline  
(3) thanks from:
01-06-2019, 16:08   #57
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,377
Very slight adjustments to provisional scoring will take place as I found the following final stats ...

IMT was 11.0 as expected.

PRC appears closer to 60% than 50% but that will not change any scores.

SUN was a bit more generous on 30th and 31st than I had estimated, 35% instead of what I was expecting would be close to zero, as the sun managed some play time in the south. That pushes the monthly estimate up to 97%. If your forecast was a multiple of 5 as most are, then your score won't change. One or two others might.

All of the scoring will be revisited on the 5th (I expect) as I notice that the 3rd is a bank holiday. I should have guessed that from the weather.
M.T. Cranium is online now  
03-06-2019, 00:48   #58
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,377
Provisional Annual scoring summary January to May 2019 with updated four seasons points for spring 2019


(rank) _ FORECASTER __________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May ___ 2019 TOTAL (and best 4/5) _____ Spring total (MAM) pts


_ 01 __ Tae laidir ______________ 70 __ 67 __ 83 __ 80 __ 58 ___ 358 ___ (300) _ 1 __________ 221 (10) - 1st

_ 02 __ Sunflower3 _____________77 __ 67 __ 67 __ 52 __ 60 ___ 323 ___ (271) _ 2 __________ 179 (1) -- 8th

_ 03 __ Adam240610 ___________ 63 __ 65 __ 59 __ 66 __ 59 ___ 312 ___ (253) _ 7 __________ 184 (3) -- 6th

_ 04 __ DOCARCH ______________63 __ 68 __ 63 __ 48 __ 67 ___ 309 ___ (261) _ 4 __________ 178 (1) -- t9th

_ 05 __ Rameire _______________ 56 __ 77 __ 64 __ 48 __ 61 ___ 306 ___ (258) _ 5 __________ 173

_ 06 __ 200motels ______________48 __ 68 __ 62 __ 60 __ 66 ___ 304 ___ (256) _ 6 __________ 188 (4) -- 5th


_(07)__ Con Sensus_____________61 __ 57 __ 72 __ 53 __ 57 ___ 300 ___ (247)_(10) _________ 182 (2) -- 7th


_ 07 __ Jpmarn ________________ 69 __ 43 __ 60 __ 62 __ 58 ___ 292 ___ (249) _ 9 __________ 180 (2) -- 7th

_ 08 __ MrSkinner ______________70 __ 52 __ 50 __ 64 __ 55 ___ 291 ___ (241) _12t _________ 169

_ 09 __ Kindred Spirit ___________58 __ 62 __ 77 __ 44 __ 49 ___ 290 ___ (246) _10 __________ 170

_ 10 __ JCX BXC _______________ 65 __ 53 __ 66 __ 38 __ 66 ___ 288 ___ (250) _ 8 __________ 170

_ 11 __ dasa29 ________________ 48 __ 46 __ 85 __ 45 __ 62 ___ 286 ___ (241) _12t _________ 192 (6) -- 3rd

_t12 __ waterways _____________ 75 __ 19 __ 63 __ 70 __ 56 ___ 283 ___ (264) _ 3 __________ 189 (5) -- 4th

_t12 __ Bsal ___________________47 __ 58 __ 77 __ 45 __ 56 ___ 283 ___ (238) _15 __________ 178 (1) --t9th

_ 14 __ pauldry ________________ 55 __ 62 __ 60 __ 51 __ 53 ___ 281 ___ (230) _18 __________ 164

_t15 __ john mac _______________49 __ 61 __ 63 __ 67 __ 39 ___ 279 ___ (240) _14 __________ 169

_t15 __ Rikand _________________62 __ 59 __ 54 __ 56 __ 48 ___ 279 ___ (231) _17 __________ 158

_t17 __ mickger844posts _________65 __ 47 __ 68 __ 33 __ 65 ___ 278 ___ (245) _11 __________ 166

_t17 __ sryanbruen ______________41 __ 42 __ 56 __ 53 __ 86 ___ 278 ___ (237) _16 __________ 195 (7) -- 2nd


_(19)__ NormaL ________________49 __ 60 __ 58 __ 48 __ 58 ___ 273 ___ (225) _(21) _________ 164


_ 19 __ Artane2002 _____________ 46 __ 60 __ 48 __ 52 __ 66 ___ 272 ___ (226) _19 __________ 166

_ 20 __ Dacogawa ______________ 41 __ 49 __ 71 __ 60 __ 41 ___ 262 ___ (221) _20 __________ 172

_ 21 __ M.T. Cranium ____________45 __ 54 __ 59 __ 45 __ 57 ___ 260 ___ (215) _22 __________ 161

_ 22 __ Joe Public _______________62 __ 24 __ 44 __ 52 __ 60 ___ 242 ___ (218) _21 __________ 156

_ 23 __ YanSno _________________62 __ --- __ --- __ 44 __ 58 ___ 164 ___ (164) _23 __________ 102 (2 of 3)

_ 24 __ BLIZZARD7 _____________ 18 __ --- __ 33 __ 55 __ 32 ___ 138 ___ (138) _24 __________ 120

_ 25 __ sdanseo ________________ 45 __ 36 __ --- __ --- __ --- ____ 81

_ 26 __ bazlers _________________ --- __ ---__ 50 __ --- __ --- ____ 50

_ 27 __ Tazio __________________ --- __ 44 __ --- __ --- __ --- ____ 44

_ 28 __ derekon ________________ 39 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- ___ 39
_________________________________________________________________________

low score in italics is subtracted from total to get best 4/5 (some have two months tied for that, only one is subtracted).

This summary will be either confirmed or replaced by adjusted scoring totals around the 5th (May scores are provisional).

============================================

Four seasons points totals for winter and spring (2018-19 contest year)


FORECASTER __________ Winter pts ___ Spring pts ____ TOTAL to date


Tae laidir ______________ 10 ____________ 10 __________ 20

Adam240610 ____________7 ______________3 __________ 10

sryanbruen _____________ 0 ______________7 ____________7

DOCARCH ______________ 6 ______________1 ____________7

dasa29 _________________0 ______________ 6 ___________ 6

pauldry ________________ 5 ______________ 0 ___________ 5

waterways ______________0 ______________ 5 ___________ 5

200motels ______________0 ______________ 4 ___________ 4

Jpmarn ________________ 2 ______________ 2 ___________ 4

MrSkinner ______________ 4 ______________ 0 ___________ 4


___ Con Sensus _________ 2 ______________ 2 ___________ 4


Kindred Spirit ___________ 3 ______________ 0 ___________ 3

Sunflower3 _____________ 1 ______________ 1 ___________ 2

bsal ___________________ 1 ______________ 1 ___________ 2

mickger844posts _________ 1 ______________ 0 ___________ 1

(all others have not scored four seasons points yet)

Congrats to tae laidir for a flawless performance in the four seasons so far.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 03-06-2019 at 01:09.
M.T. Cranium is online now  
05-06-2019, 14:27   #59
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,377
All scoring above is now declared "final" as the MS confirms all estimated values used for May. Sunshine worked out to the same percentage as used, Cork came in most above average and the two Dublin area stations below average, the other three being close to normal values.

May is the month with the highest average amount of sunshine, six hours a day. Until about the 24th it was running at a pace of seven hours a day but fell back considerably with the cloudy spell after that date.

So congrats to sryanbruen who moved up into the large chase pack behind the leaders with a score of 86 in a month where average scoring was rather low (nobody else broke 70). And congrats to tae laidir who has opened up a fairly large lead in the annual contest and is doing very well in the four seasons as well.
M.T. Cranium is online now  
(4) thanks from:
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet