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20-06-2015, 07:34   #3736
M.T. Cranium
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Saturday, 20 June, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Cloudy this morning in most parts, a few light showers, then partly cloudy around mid-day and through the afternoon, still rather humid with highs near 20 C south, 17 C north.

TONIGHT ... A few showers developing in moderate westerly winds, lows about 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers, slightly cooler in west to northwest breezes 30-50 km/hr. Highs 15-18 C.

MONDAY ... Early morning periods of rain across Munster should fade around mid-day, partly cloudy elsewhere with isolated showers, winds becoming more northerly and somewhat on the cool side with lows 8-10 C and highs 14-17 C.

TUESDAY ... Partial clearing, lows 7-9 C and highs 17-20 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, possible showers or periods of light rain across some western regions, lows 6-9 C and highs 17-20 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few showers, lows 7-10 C and highs 16-19 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain or showers, lows 10-12 C and highs 17-20 C, high humidity levels in a southerly to southwesterly breeze.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Near the end of June it may become just a bit warmer and another dry spell may develop. Current charts suggest highs near 22 C with potential for 24 C in a few places.

This rather bland weather outlook will be similar for Britain. Across North America, many places are running warmer than average while the remnants of "Bill" (they track him still) have reached Kentucky and Ohio where 25-50 mm rainfalls are still possible as Bill brought a full load with him, apparently. By contrast, we are having the driest June I can remember around the west coast and even today's passing shower clouds which looked promising managed to drop only a few sprinkles of trace amounts of rain, with highs near 23 C. If you're watching the U.S. Open Golf expect two very sunny and warm days over the weekend with a stronger breeze by Sunday blowing down the hills -- should make for a rather wild finish.
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21-06-2015, 08:02   #3737
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Sunday, 21 June, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


Astronomy note: Summer solstice occurs today at 5:38 p.m. Irish summer time. While this is the start of astronomical summer, most weather agencies regard the first of June as the onset of summer. Who's right? Interestingly, the warmest quarter of the year is probably a near average of the two, 12 June to 11 September.

TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers, slightly cooler in west to northwest breezes 30-50 km/hr. Highs 15-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain will move into parts of Kerry and Cork, bringing 10 mm to southern portions, but most other places will remain dry or just see light drizzly showers with trace to 1 mm amounts. Lows 7-9 C north, 11-13 C south.

MONDAY ... Early morning periods of rain across south coast of Munster should fade before mid-day, partly cloudy to sunny elsewhere with just a few isolated showers mostly in north Connacht and west Ulster, winds becoming more northerly and somewhat on the cool side with highs 14-17 C. It may get a little warmer in the late afternoon and early evening in parts of the southwest.

TUESDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, warm, lows 7-9 C and highs 17-21 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, possible showers or periods of light rain across some western regions, lows 6-9 C and highs 17-21 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few showers, risk of some heavier rain in the northwest, lows 7-10 C and highs 17-21 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain or showers, lows 10-12 C and highs 17-21 C, high humidity levels in a southerly to southwesterly breeze.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The weekend of 27th-28th will probably see similar conditions with further showers, but near the end of June it may become just a bit warmer and another dry spell may develop. Current charts suggest highs near 22 C with potential for 24 C in a few places.

The forecasts for BRITAIN should follow a similar course but the rain brushing the south coast early Monday will then move into southern England and bring some heavy falls to the south coast later Monday.

In NORTH AMERICA, heavy storms will continue and develop further across most of the Great Lakes region and parts of the Midwest and Ohio valley today. Meanwhile, warm and dry in the far west (very hot in the desert southwest). My local weather on Saturday was sunny with a high near 24 C.
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21-06-2015, 08:02   #3738
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Sunday, 21 June, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


Astronomy note: Summer solstice occurs today at 5:38 p.m. Irish summer time. While this is the start of astronomical summer, most weather agencies regard the first of June as the onset of summer. Who's right? Interestingly, the warmest quarter of the year is probably a near average of the two, 12 June to 11 September.

TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers, slightly cooler in west to northwest breezes 30-50 km/hr. Highs 15-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain will move into parts of Kerry and Cork, bringing 10 mm to southern portions, but most other places will remain dry or just see light drizzly showers with trace to 1 mm amounts. Lows 7-9 C north, 11-13 C south.

MONDAY ... Early morning periods of rain across south coast of Munster should fade before mid-day, partly cloudy to sunny elsewhere with just a few isolated showers mostly in north Connacht and west Ulster, winds becoming more northerly and somewhat on the cool side with highs 14-17 C. It may get a little warmer in the late afternoon and early evening in parts of the southwest.

TUESDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, warm, lows 7-9 C and highs 17-21 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, possible showers or periods of light rain across some western regions, lows 6-9 C and highs 17-21 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few showers, risk of some heavier rain in the northwest, lows 7-10 C and highs 17-21 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain or showers, lows 10-12 C and highs 17-21 C, high humidity levels in a southerly to southwesterly breeze.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The weekend of 27th-28th will probably see similar conditions with further showers, but near the end of June it may become just a bit warmer and another dry spell may develop. Current charts suggest highs near 22 C with potential for 24 C in a few places.

The forecasts for BRITAIN should follow a similar course but the rain brushing the south coast early Monday will then move into southern England and bring some heavy falls to the south coast later Monday.

In NORTH AMERICA, heavy storms will continue and develop further across most of the Great Lakes region and parts of the Midwest and Ohio valley today. Meanwhile, warm and dry in the far west (very hot in the desert southwest). My local weather on Saturday was sunny with a high near 24 C.
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22-06-2015, 07:54   #3739
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Monday, 22 June, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Becoming partly cloudy with sunny breaks more frequent in the south central counties as a few showers or intervals of light rain develop further north, more frequent in north Connacht and west Ulster (2-4 mm potential there), and winds becoming more northerly so rather cool wth highs generally 14-16 C. It may get a little warmer in the late afternoon and early evening in parts of the southwest.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing for most, a few remnant showers in the northwest, lows 5-9 C coolest inland central and south.

TUESDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, warming to highs of 17-21 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, possible showers or periods of light rain across some western regions, lows 6-9 C and highs 17-21 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few showers, risk of some heavier rain in the northwest, lows 7-10 C and highs 17-21 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain or showers, lows 10-12 C and highs 17-21 C, high humidity levels in a southerly to southwesterly breeze.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The weekend of 27th-28th will probably see similar conditions with further showers, and there are now signs of a more active rain-producing disturbance from the southwest around the last day of June, but into early July it may become just a bit warmer and another dry spell may develop. Current charts suggest highs near 22 C with potential for 24 C in a few places.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and warm with sea breezes and highs in the 22-25 C range.
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23-06-2015, 07:56   #3740
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Tuesday, 23 June, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Sunny intervals will develop despite some higher cloud but parts of west Munster will remain mostly cloudy. It should be a mainly dry day with very light winds that will allow various sea breezes to develop. Highs 17-21 C.

TONIGHT ... Becoming overcast with drizzle or light rain at times in western counties, not much accumulation, lows 8-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few intervals of light rain (2-5 mm on average), somewhat heavier near Donegal Bay. Highs 15-18 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 18 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, warm and humid, a few showers or periods of rain, lows near 13 C and highs near 19 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Breezy, rather warm, with heavier rain possible around Saturday night or early Sunday. At least with that timing the daytime hours could be reasonably dry. Highs both days 18-20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are still indications of quite an active frontal system with heavy rainfall potential around 30 June or 1 July. Beyond that it may turn a bit warmer and less humid.

A similar forecast for most parts of Britain, although quite a bit warmer at times in southern England by this weekend and early next week (24-26 C).

Heavy storms will continue in parts of eastern North America, and very hot and humid conditions in parts of the southeast to mid-Atlantic states. Warm and dry further west. My local weather on Monday was sunny with a few cloudy intervals, with a high near 22 C. Had a look this evening for any sign of the aurora borealis, but had to settle for great views of the stars and planets (and the city as we tried to get a view from a nearby hilltop).

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 23-06-2015 at 08:00.
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24-06-2015, 07:45   #3741
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Wednesday, 24 June, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few afternoon sunny breaks developing, light rain this morning may bring 2-5 mm in parts of north, trace to 2 mm in southeast. Warm and humid by afternoon with some coastal fog near south coast. Highs 17-20 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with mist or fog patches, mild, lows 9-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, warm and humid, rain likely holding off in most areas but could brush parts of northwest coast with somewhat heavier amounts there. Highs 17-21 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with a few showers, once again somewhat heavier in northwest than other regions, but average amounts 3-5 mm. Morning lows near 12 C and afternoon highs near 18 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud with a few showers or outbreaks of light rain. Heavier rain is likely by evening. Lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.

SUNDAY ... The overnight rains should begin to ease off during the morning after 10-20 mm amounts, then warm and humid with a few isolated but possibly heavy showers in the afternoon, lows 13-15 C and highs 19-21 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rain seems rather likely at times from Tuesday 30th to the weekend of 4-5 July. The flow will become more southerly with embedded weak fronts and the chance of a more organized heavy rainfall event but timing for this will be vague until next week arrives, would say Friday 3rd most likely at this point.

These projections all apply to BRITAIN except that some of the warmer days will feature highs into the mid 20s and there could also be the occasional outbreak of locally heavy thunderstorms.

Heat wave conditions began to break down over the eastern U.S. on Tuesday with gusty winds in thunderstorms, and while it will remain quite warm, readings will be considerably lower in New England and parts of the Great Lakes region later this week. It will remain rather warm in the west leading to another hot spell there by this coming weekend. Tuesday in my location was sunny and the high was about 23 C.
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25-06-2015, 08:09   #3742
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Thursday, 25 June, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Warm and humid with outbreaks of heavy, possibly thundery rain brushing northwest coastal regions and moving into north Ulster later. These areas could see 15-20 mm in total. Many other locations could remain largely dry with a few brighter intervals developing, but there is potential for isolated showers or thundershowers dropping 2-3 mm or so. Highs 19-22 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with occasional light rain, except more moderate rainfalls may continue to pulse across parts of the northwest. Lows 12-14 C.

FRIDAY ... Warm and humid with a few showers, highs 19-21 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy, outbreaks of light rain in west by mid-day or afternoon, becoming heavier in northwest counties by evening. Not as unsettled for Leinster or east Munster, rather warm again with lows 11-13 C and highs in the 18-21 C range.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rainfalls of 5-10 mm moving across most regions, but a heavier band of possibly thundery rainfall near the south coast by daybreak, then gradual clearing, warm and humid. Lows 13-15 C and highs 19-22 C.

MONDAY to early WEDNESDAY now appear less likely to bring rain than earlier, as systems are slowing down and being held back by rapidly swelling high pressure over the North Sea region. This will promote a warm, southeasterly flow into Ireland that could end with an outbreak of heavy thunderstorms (anywhere from 10 to 40 mm possible with this) especially in the eastern counties by Wednesday or Thursday (1-2 July). Highs will be at least 22-25 C away from cooler coasts during this spell but if the thunderstorm complex proves very active then Thursday could see temperatures held down by widespread low cloud. Eventually another frontal wave will push in from the south around Friday bringing cooler maritime air back in and dropping a further 10-15 mm rain, with temperatures back down to about 18 C.

Meanwhile, the first half of this forecast period will bring similar conditions to BRITAIN but during the warmer interval, hot and humid conditions will probably push into southern regions from France and bring temperatures as high as 29-32 C to parts of inland southern England, 24-27 C Wales and central England. However, details may change closer to the time, about all we can say for certain now is that an interesting situation is likely to develop mid-week and all will depend on how far west the hot, humid air mass can push before being lifted off the surface to form thunderstorms. At the moment, the models seem to favour Wicklow and nearby counties for this.

Over NORTH AMERICA, somewhat cooler, more seasonable conditions will develop as hot and humid air is pushed back into the southeast states. Heavy storms are likely along the slow-moving boundary in Kentucky, West Virginia and southern Virginia into eastern North Carolina. The west is warming up again and heat wave conditions will spread further north over the next few days. My local weather on Wednesday was mostly cloudy but dry with highs near 21 C. Expecting 32 C here by Saturday (25 today, 28 Friday).

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 25-06-2015 at 08:15.
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26-06-2015, 07:44   #3743
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Friday, 26 June, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Morning showers will gradually clear eastward and some warm and sunny intervals are likely by mid-day and afternoon, although with isolated showers or thunderstorms developing over some inland regions. Highs will reach 21-23 C in fresh southwesterly winds.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few breaks and isolated showers, lows 13-15 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, warm and humid, increasing risk of showers by afternoon, heavier rain developing by evening, in moderate southerly winds. Highs 19-22 C.

SUNDAY ... Morning showers or thunderstorms may be heavy at times during the early morning hours, then variable cloud with a few more isolated showers developing. Lows 13-15 C and highs 18-21 C.

MONDAY ... Hazy sunshine east, cloudy west, quite warm and humid. Rain is likely to stay off the west coast but could brush a few outer coastal districts by later in the day. Moderate southeast to south winds, lows 14-17 C and highs around 22 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy for most, some hazy sunshine at times in east, rain edging further into western coastal districts in a moderate southerly flow, lows 14-17 C and highs 22-25 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY remain at risk for heavy thunderstorms as a frontal system slowly develops between hot and humid air over Britain and cooler, fresher Atlantic air trying to push into Ireland from the southwest. Details will not be clear for a few days yet but would not be surprised if some locally heavy rainfalls develop in Leinster or east Munster. Temperatures could be as high as 24 C but the more rain or thunderstorms that develop, the closer to 18 C temperatures might settle.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for more of these battleground scenarios to develop as the upper level steering flow remains similar in general, so it could be a case of "rinse and repeat" towards the weekend of 4-5 July and into the following week. There are also some signs of a few warm, dry days in the mix.

Looking at BRITAIN, the period to Tuesday 29th will be broadly similar to the above but after that, hot and humid air will flood into most parts of England and parts of Wales, allowing temperatures to soar to 28-32 C. At this point I don't think temperatures quite that high will reach Ireland but there is some possibility of it, if the frontal systems are either weak or slower moving than most guidance suggests. Eventually some severe thunderstorms could develop either in eastern Ireland or over the Irish Sea into Wales and southwest England. That would be most likely around 1-2 July at this point and again around 4-5 July.

My local weather is turning warmer again, Thursday was sunny and near 27 C and the forecast is calling for 32 C on the weekend here, and 40 C in parts of the southern interior valleys of B.C., with 43 C possible in central Washington state. The risk of forest fires will grow as thunderstorms with limited rainfall develop over mountains.
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27-06-2015, 07:44   #3744
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Saturday, 27 June, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals developing, warm and humid, after some scattered light showers this morning, there will be an increasing risk of more organized showers by afternoon, with heavier rain developing by evening, in moderate southerly winds. Highs 19-22 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain may be heavy for a few hours and will be most persistent after midnight and in the southeast and central counties. Amounts will range from 10 to 20 mm, and this may be welcome in some dry areas. Lows will be mild, 13-15 C. Winds S to SW 40-60 km/hr at times.

SUNDAY ... Morning showers or thunderstorms may be heavy at times during the early morning hours, then variable cloud with a few more isolated showers developing. Winds southwest 40-60 km/hr and highs 18-21 C. Rather humid but slightly fresher by afternoon and evening.

MONDAY ... Hazy sunshine east, partly to mostly cloudy west, quite warm and humid. Rain is likely to stay off the west coast but could brush a few outer coastal districts by later in the day. Moderate southeast to south winds, 40 to 60 km/hr, with lows 14-17 C and highs around 22 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy for most, some hazy sunshine at times in east, rain edging further into western coastal districts in a moderate southerly flow, lows 14-17 C and highs 22-25 C. About 3-5 mm rain potential in western counties only. Parts of Britain may begin to warm into the high 20s.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY remain at risk for heavy thunderstorms as a frontal system slowly develops between hot and humid air over Britain and cooler, fresher Atlantic air trying to push into Ireland from the southwest. Details will not be clear for a few days yet but would not be surprised if some locally heavy rainfalls develop in Leinster or east Munster. Temperatures could be as high as 24 C but the more rain or thunderstorms that develop, the closer to 18 C temperatures might settle, at least during the heavier rain. There will probably be a dry slot between one frontal system over the east and an advancing second front over western counties. That's where temperatures might reach the mid-20s in this scenario. Meanwhile it could easily top 30 degrees in parts of England and 24-27 C in Wales into north-central England. By FRIDAY it could become rather showery in general with temperatures falling back to about 18-20 C in Ireland and 22-24 C in Britain. However, the hot and humid air mass won't retreat very far to the east or south at that point and could make one more run at the region.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for another battleground scenario to develop around the weekend of 4-5 July and into the early part of the following week. Low confidence in this outcome at this distance, but the charts we are seeing would suggest occasional heavy rainfalls and temperatures near 20 C.

The latest guidance for the first half of July suggests rather frequent rainfall and temperatures generally near normal, as the core of the hot and humid air mass is pushed off into central Europe. Spain and southern France would remain hot, but northern France, Holland and Belgium would return to more of a seasonable Atlantic driven pattern. Once again, confidence is not high as these outlooks continue to shift around from run to run.

What is very easy to predict is that I will be sweating up a storm here as the highs reach the low to mid 30s under mostly sunny skies. Friday was hot enough at 29 C. Isolated thunderstorms are possible here by Sunday. Friday was probably the first day in about two weeks that the highs in parts of the eastern U.S. (especially mid-Atlantic states) failed to reach 30 C. This cooler air is filtering a bit further south before it stalls and loses its contrast with the hot, humid air mass in place over the south central states. While it's hot in most of the desert southwest, it was equally hot in central Washington state on Friday, with highs into the low 40s in places.
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28-06-2015, 07:27   #3745
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Sunday, 28 June, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Showers will now become confined to a few northern counties except for some isolated outbreaks elsewhere, and clouds should begin to break to partly cloudy skies, winds southwest 40-60 km/hr and highs 18-21 C. Rather humid but slightly fresher by afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy to overcast, lows 13-16 C.

MONDAY ... Hazy sunshine east, partly to mostly cloudy west, quite warm and humid. Rain is likely to stay off the west coast until afternoon but now seems quite likely to cover western Connacht at times by afternoon before spreading into northwest Ulster by evening. Other regions will likely stay dry. Moderate southeast to south winds developing, 40 to 60 km/hr, with highs around 22 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy for most, some hazy sunshine at times in east, patchy light rain edging further into western coastal districts but tending to die out by afternoon, in a moderate southerly flow, lows 14-17 C and highs 22-25 C. About 3-5 mm rain potential from mid-day Monday to late Tuesday in western counties only. Parts of Britain may begin to warm into the high 20s or near 30.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY remain at risk for heavy thunderstorms as a frontal system slowly develops between hot and humid air over Britain and cooler, fresher Atlantic air trying to push into Ireland from the southwest. Details continue to look a bit "weak" compared to potential and don't be surprised if some locally heavy rainfalls develop in Leinster or east Munster. Temperatures could be as high as 24 C but the more rain or thunderstorms that develop, the closer to 18 C temperatures might settle, at least during the heavier rain. There will probably be a dry slot between one frontal system over the east and an advancing second front over western counties. That's where temperatures might reach the mid-20s in this scenario. Meanwhile it could easily top 30 degrees in parts of England and 24-27 C in Wales into north-central England although temperatures will start to drop back to more average values through the day on Thursday. By FRIDAY it could become rather showery in general with temperatures falling back to about 18-20 C in Ireland and 22-24 C in Britain. However, the hot and humid air mass won't retreat very far to the east or south at that point and could make one more run at the region.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for another battleground or frontal wave scenario to develop around the weekend of 4-5 July and into the early part of the following week. Growing confidence in this outcome now, but the charts we are seeing would suggest occasional heavy rainfalls and high temperatures near 20 C.

Later in July the pattern begins to look somewhat cooler than average by about the middle of the month, as the jet stream sinks into southern or central France, so despite a warm start there is no strong signal of a hot summer developing.

The same cannot be said for western North America, in this el Nino summer it is no surprise that we are having a very hot season. Under blazing sunshine it was about 32 C here on Saturday (normal values here are 22-24 C), and 44 C in some parts of central Washington state (normal values there are about 29-30). This extreme heat spread into south central B.C. where it reached 40 at several hot spots. Despite all that I was out golfing and I can only say if this had hit last weekend for the U.S. Open, it would have been a lot more than just poor Jason Day passing out.
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29-06-2015, 07:17   #3746
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Monday, 29 June, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Mostly cloudy but with some hazy sunshine at times, warm and humid, with outbreaks of light rain mainly confined to west coast. Even there, amounts only 2-5 mm in most cases. Highs 19-22 C with warmer readings inland due to sea breezes that might bring some fog to coastlines or slightly inland, in a moderate southerly flow.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some mist or fog, remaining quite warm and humid with lows 13-17 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy and very warm, with coastal fog or low cloud likely but some sunny spells for most central and eastern counties, more overcast in the west with occasional drizzle or light rain. Highs will vary from near 20 C in the west to 25 C inland central and east, 22 C more likely near east coast and 18 C on the south coast.

WEDNESDAY ... Warm and humid with scattered outbreaks of thundery showers, possibly heavy by afternoon and evening in some parts of Leinster. Lows near 17 C and highs near 23 C on average, any prolonged sunshine could produce highs to about 26 C but if heavy rain develops temperatures can be expected to fall to 18-20 C at that time.

THURSDAY ... Continued partly cloudy with scattered showers and risk of a thunderstorm, warm and humid, lows 15-17 C and highs 22-24 C.

FRIDAY ... Frequent showers developing, lows near 16 C and highs 21-23 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The weekend of 4-5 July could be quite unsettled with more outbreaks of heavy showers or thunderstorms but there could also be some sunny intervals, with temperatures generally in the low 20s. The following week looks quite unsettled at times too, with temperatures remaining either near or a bit above average, in the 20-23 C range. Longer range guidance, with rather low confidence, shows a cooler spell developing around mid-July.

Most of the above will apply to BRITAIN also, but on Tuesday and Wednesday even warmer temperatures will develop there, peaking around 31 C in some places on Wednesday. There will be some heavy or even severe thunderstorms in some places when the cooler maritime air pushes east and covers Britain later in the week, but then the hot and humid air will try to push back to the west around Friday night or Saturday morning (3-4 July) leading to a possible severe storm outbreak in parts of southern England.

Across much of eastern North America, the weather has turned cooler with widespread cloud and outbreaks of rain, temperatures only around 20 C, but further west it becomes extremely hot. Some locations in the inland portions of the Pacific Northwest region including southern B.C. had highs above 40 C on Sunday and this will continue for much of the week despite somewhat cooler air pushing inland from the Pacific, which has set off some showers although much of the activity has remained dry apart from a few raindrops reaching the surface. Our local weather was cloudy with that sporadic light shower activity and humid highs near 26 C on Sunday.

A reminder -- if you find that you have clear skies during any evenings this week, Venus and Jupiter will be making their closest approach in the western sky after sunset each evening. The actual timing for the conjunction is about 1500h on 1st of July but both Tuesday and Wednesday evening will feature a very close pairing for European observers.
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30-06-2015, 07:30   #3747
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Tuesday, 30 June, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland



TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy and very warm, with coastal fog or low cloud likely but some sunny spells for most central and eastern counties, more overcast in the west with occasional drizzle or light rain. Highs will vary from near 20 C in the west to 25 C inland central and east, 22 C more likely near east coast and 18 C on the south coast.

TONIGHT ... Warm and humid with slight risk of thunderstorms developing in parts of the southeast and east after midnight (this activity could be mostly off the east coast, moving north, stay tuned for updates). Lows 13-17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm and humid with scattered outbreaks of thundery showers, possibly heavy by afternoon and evening in some parts of the midlands and north Leinster. Lows near 17 C and highs near 23 C on average, any prolonged sunshine could produce highs to about 26 C but if heavy rain develops temperatures can be expected to fall to 18-20 C at that time.

THURSDAY ... Continued partly cloudy with scattered showers and risk of a thunderstorm, warm and still somewhat on the humid side although fresher in most western counties, lows 15-17 C and highs 19-21 C west to 22-24 C east.

FRIDAY ... Frequent showers developing although mostly confined to west coast counties until evening when they may begin to spread further east, lows 14 to 16 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The weekend of 4-5 July could be quite unsettled with more outbreaks of heavy showers or thunderstorms, probably more widespread on Saturday than Sunday, with potential for 15-30 mm rain, but there could also be some sunny intervals, more prolonged on Sunday, with temperatures both days generally in the range of 18 to 21 C. The following week looks quite unsettled at times too, with temperatures remaining either near or a bit above average, in the 20-23 C range. Longer range guidance, with rather low confidence, shows a cooler spell developing around mid-July.

Most of the above will apply to BRITAIN also, but today and Wednesday even warmer temperatures will develop there, peaking around 31 C in some places around London to Cambridge on Wednesday. There will be some heavy or even severe thunderstorms in some places when the cooler maritime air pushes east and covers Britain later in the week, but then the hot and humid air will try to push back to the west around Friday night or Saturday morning, leading to a possible severe storm outbreak in parts of southern England.

The very hot weather continues in western regions of NORTH AMERICA although fewer records were set on Monday, and my local conditions were sunny with a high near 30 C. This heat wave is expected to re-intensify during the week. Severe wildfires have been set off by thunderstorms and human carelessness in parts of Washington state and B.C., with some heavy damage in the town of Wenatchee in central WA state.

(with any clear skies this evening, check out the close conjunction of Jupiter and Venus in the western sky -- full moon occurs early on 2nd of July at 3:20 a.m. summer time, but the moon already looks full here tonight).
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30-06-2015, 18:27   #3748
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UPDATE _ Tues 30 June 6 p.m.
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Extreme heat has developed over France and will continue to spread into southern England overnight and tomorrow. The current temperatures are 37 C at Nantes and 38 or 39 C in many parts of the southwest of France, about 34 in Paris, and 32 even in normally temperate Brittany where a few isolated thunderstorms have developed. Remnants of those are expected to arrive over Wales later tonight. We will track them carefully but at this point most of the guidance suggests that they will stay just east of Ireland with the possible exception of county Down towards sunrise. The more potent source for any thunderstorms in Ireland tomorrow would be an advancing cold front located out to the west of the Bay of Biscay at this point. Those storms could develop over west central counties by late afternoon and head northeast. However, there is a risk of isolated heavy storms further east.

The main core of the heat is aimed at Britain where highs today were generally about 27 to 30 C in southern regions, and today's considerable warmth in Ireland, for example 25 C at Casement and Phoenix Park currently, one report of 26 in Dublin from a boards weather forum regular, is probably the peak temperature to be expected in Ireland. It may hit similar values in one or two locations tomorrow given enough sunshine.

However, it will be uncomfortably warm tonight especially in Dublin, temperatures may not drop much below 20 C in the city and not until after midnight. Lows of 14-18 C can be expected in general.

If you are travelling later today or early tomorrow to either Britain or France, expect to encounter another day of extreme heat, we're thinking that overnight lows in southern England may be as high as 21 C and daytime highs 30-33 C, while in France it could stay above 24 all night and rise back to the mid to high 30s, except for a more active sea breeze zone near the Atlantic coast which should keep places like Nantes closer to 29 C, Brittany about 24 C. This heat will be pushing slowly away from Ireland all day tomorrow, but leaving Ireland in a residual warm air mass between two frontal zones -- the extreme heat eventually will leave all of Britain and the northwest half of France too. But it will try to return to those regions on Friday, at which time, it will start to interact with an Atlantic frontal system approaching Ireland. This may make Saturday quite an active day, and I don't expect to see all issues resolved on that until a bit closer to "show time."

Meanwhile, I am not being left out of the heat sweepstakes, as it is sunny and heading for 33 C at my location.

Don't forget, for those who have any breaks in the cloud at about 11 p.m., take a look to your west to see a very close conjunction of Jupiter and Venus. Same deal tomorrow evening, the actual timing of this means both nights are about equally close for viewers in Europe. I saw them last night here and they were already about as close as one lunar diameter. Stay cool and hydrated (especially the latter) .
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01-07-2015, 07:53   #3749
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Wednesday, 1 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland



ALERT for possible development of heavy thunderstorms from mid-day to evening hours, watch for updates as the guidance available is not very conclusive and we will have to track this more or less in real time -- I have the feeling that central to north Leinster may be more at risk as the combination of available heat energy and instability looks best there towards afternoon. However, other regions are at some risk as well. Having said that, it may be rather hit and miss.


TODAY ... Warm and humid for most, especially the eastern half of the country, with outbreaks of showery rain in the west, and possible isolated clusters of heavy thunderstorms both there and in the eastern counties by mid-day or afternoon. Rainfall amounts may prove to be quite variable with some places remaining dry, others at risk of seeing over 20 mm. Highs of about 24 C will be possible in central and eastern counties where the sun makes any prolonged appearances, but temperatures are likely to fall off to near 18 C in any steady rainfall. Sea fog is likely to roll in from south coast at times and it may be rather misty at times near the west coast, probably clearing somewhat by afternoon as humidity levels may drop a little there.

TONIGHT ... A few heavy showers or thunderstorms may continue in north Leinster and Ulster, otherwise, gradual clearing is likely with fog patches and a somewhat fresher low of about 13 or 14 C, with 9 or 10 C possible in some inland western valleys.

THURSDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine with isolated showers and locally heavy thundery showers possible, highs 19-22 C.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, quite humid with outbreaks of rain spreading into some western counties, heavy at times in Kerry and west Cork, and a gusty southeast to south wind developing, 40-70 km/hr. Lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY are likely to produce breezy, unsettled weather with some intervals of heavy showers but also some dry interludes with a bit of sunshine each day. It will be around 12 C at night and 19 C in the daytime hours, perhaps reaching 20 or 21 in parts of Leinster.

MONDAY also looks quite unsettled with the risk of some heavy rainfalls and highs near 19 C.

The further outlook is generally somewhat improved as higher pressure returns to the south, and temperatures may edge back above normal values at times into the low 20s.

Take note if travelling today to Britain or France that some heavier showers or thunderstorms could develop in places and are already underway in some parts of west-central France. The extreme heat recorded yesterday is slowly being pushed further east so highs will be less extreme in western France but similar in other regions, in fact a bit hotter today than yesterday in some parts of eastern France, and much of southeast England (near 33 C). While Ireland cools under the Atlantic influence at the end of the week, some of this hot and humid air will try to mount a comeback into southeast England and eastern France, and that may bring temperatures up to about 27 C with an outbreak of heavy storms again.

In North America, hot and humid weather is slowly returning to the eastern states after a few cooler days, but extreme heat is rebuilding over the west. My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and hot with a high near 30 C, but there were intense thunderstorms inland with considerable damage in some places in southern British Columbia. Fires have eased somewhat in Washington state but with the heat rebuilding, the fire risk is extreme.

Astronomy notes -- full moon tonight at 0320h Irish summer time, and closest approach of Venus and Jupiter occurs today at about 3 p.m. but they won't be visible at that time (although they will be in the sky to the left of the afternoon sun). You'll perhaps get a glimpse of this after sunset in a few places, I was just out admiring the view here, the two planets are now easily closer than one lunar diameter.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 01-07-2015 at 07:58.
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02-07-2015, 07:06   #3750
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Thursday, 2 July, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, these more likely in east-central counties. Warm and still rather humid, highs 19-22 C higher in parts of inland north-central and eastern counties. Risk of some heavy showers or thunderstorms developing by afternoon in parts of Munster, remnants of these spreading further north later. It may become quite foggy along the south coast at times.

TONIGHT ... Showers dying out, foggy at times, lows 8-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Some sunshine at first, then increasing cloud, becoming rather breezy (southeast 40-70 km/hr) with heavy showers or periods of rain developing in Munster by late in the day. Foggy near some coasts with highs 18-23 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy, frequent showers but some brief sunny breaks by afternoon, moderate south winds veering southwest 30-50 km/hr. Lows about 11 C and highs about 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, further showers likely, possibly some heavy bursts in parts of the west. Lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY ... Rain or showers, heavy at times, lows near 8 C and highs 15-18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and rather cool compared to this week, but some slight improvements later in the week.

Over in BRITAIN, each day is likely to be slightly warmer but Friday could be considerably warmer in eastern England with highs 24-27 C. This brief return of the very warm and humid air will likely set off widespread heavy showers and some thunderstorms.

My local weather on Wednesday (our national holiday) was sunny and hot with highs near 34 C where I was, although closer to 30 C at my home base which is closer to the ocean. Weak sea breezes continue to make it somewhat tolerable around here.
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