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View Poll Results: What impact will the sun's deep minima have on the future climate?
Climate getting progressively cooler through next solar cycles 273 43.54%
No impact 138 22.01%
Global warming is here to stay 113 18.02%
Calm before the solar storm of 2012-2013 103 16.43%
Voters: 627. You may not vote on this poll

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18-10-2019, 23:32   #811
SeaBreezes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NK76 View Post
Sorry for being thick but what are the implications of this upon our weather or climate in the immiediette short term ? Basic answer please for a basic brain😊
Valentina Zharkova explains

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JyyuouPSNEA
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22-10-2019, 03:22   #812
BLIZZARD7
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Deeper we go, Solar Radio Flux is now at the lowest I've seen it at 63.5, possibly the lowest ever recorded value ??

https://spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php

NOAA expecting it to slip deeper still and flatline over the coming years -



Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 18 days
2019 total: 217 days (74%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 21 Oct 2019
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22-10-2019, 03:45   #813
BLIZZARD7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NK76 View Post
Sorry for being thick but what are the implications of this upon our weather or climate in the immiediette short term ? Basic answer please for a basic brain��
Hopefully Seabreezes link explains it for you. Basically we aren't sure what the implications are for our climate but in the past ; Deep solar minium has occured at the same time as much colder periods, particularly over north west Europe. It remains to be seen how much of a role solar activity plays in this process but atleast now it looks like we will be able to observe any affects casued by a deep minimum with modern equipment and technology.

These colder periods/solar minimums coincided with heightened volcanic activity too - a factor that muddys the water a bit in terms of climate impact but may infact be a part of the process/impact.
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22-10-2019, 15:57   #814
nacho libre
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Originally Posted by BLIZZARD7 View Post
Hopefully Seabreezes link explains it for you. Basically we aren't sure what the implications are for our climate but in the past ; Deep solar minium has occured at the same time as much colder periods, particularly over north west Europe. It remains to be seen how much of a role solar activity plays in this process but atleast now it looks like we will be able to observe any affects casued by a deep minimum with modern equipment and technology.

These colder periods/solar minimums coincided with heightened volcanic activity too - a factor that muddys the water a bit in terms of climate impact but may infact be a part of the process/impact.
Hopefully it surpasses the 2008 total.

I recall thinking back in 2010 if the low solar activity had somehow a role to play in the Iceland Volcano erupting.
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22-10-2019, 20:14   #815
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BLIZZARD7 View Post
Hopefully Seabreezes link explains it for you. Basically we aren't sure what the implications are for our climate but in the past ; Deep solar minium has occured at the same time as much colder periods, particularly over north west Europe. It remains to be seen how much of a role solar activity plays in this process but atleast now it looks like we will be able to observe any affects casued by a deep minimum with modern equipment and technology.

These colder periods/solar minimums coincided with heightened volcanic activity too - a factor that muddys the water a bit in terms of climate impact but may infact be a part of the process/impact.
Just seen on the RTÉ news that this autumn has been such a washout that the potato harvesting is severely delayed. Probably too early to make the connection, but it will be interesting to see if we get the same cold winters we did a decade or so ago.
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23-10-2019, 17:45   #816
firemansam4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BLIZZARD7 View Post
Deeper we go, Solar Radio Flux is now at the lowest I've seen it at 63.5, possibly the lowest ever recorded value ??

https://spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php

NOAA expecting it to slip deeper still and flatline over the coming years -



Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 18 days
2019 total: 217 days (74%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 21 Oct 2019
If Solar activity drops to the levels shown on those charts beyond 2023 I think we would be looking at a solar minimum of the likes not seen since the Maunder minimum which started back in the 17th century.

I'm just wondering if that chart is only showing the end of cycle 24 and not where cycle 25 is picking up? It seems to completely contradict there previous forecast for cycle 25 earlier in the year.
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23-10-2019, 21:56   #817
BLIZZARD7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by firemansam4 View Post
If Solar activity drops to the levels shown on those charts beyond 2023 I think we would be looking at a solar minimum of the likes not seen since the Maunder minimum which started back in the 17th century.

I'm just wondering if that chart is only showing the end of cycle 24 and not where cycle 25 is picking up? It seems to completely contradict there previous forecast for cycle 25 earlier in the year.
I'm not 100% sure but NOAA atleast seem to be projecting a serious drop off in activity in the coming years if I'm reading this correctly?

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/p...and-radio-flux

Quote:
Predicted_Sunspot_Numbers_and_Radio_Flux: Predict.txt
:Created: 2019 Oct 07 0300 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).
# Please send comments and suggestions to swpc.webmaster@noaa.gov
#
# Sunspot Number: S.I.D.C. Brussels International Sunspot Number.
# 10.7cm Radio Flux value: Penticton, B.C. Canada.
# Predicted values are based on the consensus of the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel.
#
# See the README3 file for further information.
#
# Missing or not applicable data: -1
#
# Predicted Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
# With Expected Ranges
#
# -----Sunspot Number------ ----10.7 cm Radio Flux----
# YR MO PREDICTED HIGH LOW PREDICTED HIGH LOW
#--------------------------------------------------------------
2019 04 2.8 3.8 1.8 69.4 70.4 68.4
2019 05 2.9 4.9 0.9 68.9 69.9 67.9
2019 06 3.1 6.1 0.1 68.3 70.3 66.3
2019 07 3.1 8.1 0.0 67.6 70.6 64.6
2019 08 3.2 8.2 0.0 66.9 70.9 62.9
2019 09 3.2 9.2 0.0 66.1 70.1 62.1
2019 10 3.0 10.0 0.0 65.2 70.2 60.2
2019 11 2.8 9.8 0.0 64.4 70.4 60.0
2019 12 2.8 10.8 0.0 63.7 70.7 60.0
2020 01 2.9 11.9 0.0 63.1 71.1 60.0
2020 02 3.1 12.1 0.0 62.6 70.6 60.0
2020 03 3.2 13.2 0.0 62.0 71.0 60.0
2020 04 3.1 13.1 0.0 61.6 70.6 60.0
2020 05 2.8 12.8 0.0 61.3 70.3 60.0
2020 06 2.6 12.6 0.0 61.1 70.1 60.0
2020 07 2.4 12.4 0.0 60.9 69.9 60.0
2020 08 2.2 12.2 0.0 60.7 69.7 60.0
2020 09 2.0 12.0 0.0 60.6 69.6 60.0
2020 10 1.9 11.9 0.0 60.4 69.4 60.0
2020 11 1.7 11.7 0.0 60.3 69.3 60.0
2020 12 1.6 11.6 0.0 60.2 69.2 60.0
2021 01 1.5 11.5 0.0 60.0 69.0 60.0
2021 02 1.3 11.3 0.0 59.9 68.9 60.0
2021 03 1.2 11.2 0.0 59.8 68.8 60.0
2021 04 1.1 11.1 0.0 59.7 68.7 60.0
2021 05 1.0 11.0 0.0 59.6 68.6 60.0
2021 06 0.9 10.9 0.0 59.6 68.6 60.0
2021 07 0.9 10.9 0.0 59.5 68.5 60.0
2021 08 0.8 10.8 0.0 59.4 68.4 60.0
2021 09 0.7 10.7 0.0 59.4 68.4 60.0
2021 10 0.7 10.7 0.0 59.3 68.3 60.0
2021 11 0.6 10.6 0.0 59.2 68.2 60.0
2021 12 0.5 10.5 0.0 59.2 68.2 60.0
2022 01 0.5 10.5 0.0 59.2 68.2 60.0
2022 02 0.4 10.4 0.0 59.1 68.1 60.0
2022 03 0.4 10.4 0.0 59.1 68.1 60.0
2022 04 0.4 10.4 0.0 59.0 68.0 60.0
2022 05 0.3 10.3 0.0 59.0 68.0 60.0
2022 06 0.3 10.3 0.0 59.0 68.0 60.0
2022 07 0.3 10.3 0.0 59.0 68.0 60.0
2022 08 0.2 10.2 0.0 58.9 67.9 60.0
2022 09 0.2 10.2 0.0 58.9 67.9 60.0
2022 10 0.2 10.2 0.0 58.9 67.9 60.0
2022 11 0.2 10.2 0.0 58.9 67.9 60.0
2022 12 0.2 10.2 0.0 58.9 67.9 60.0


NASA on the other hand not predicting something quite so extreme -

https://www.nasa.gov/msfcsolar




EDIT : Actually I think this is just the SC24 projection , not showing anything from SC25 as per the April forecast - still looks quiet and will be updated before years end but not Maunder style just yet...

https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-...in-solar-cycle

Last edited by BLIZZARD7; 23-10-2019 at 22:00.
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24-10-2019, 10:29   #818
firemansam4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BLIZZARD7 View Post
I'm not 100% sure but NOAA atleast seem to be projecting a serious drop off in activity in the coming years if I'm reading this correctly?

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/p...and-radio-flux





NASA on the other hand not predicting something quite so extreme -

https://www.nasa.gov/msfcsolar




EDIT : Actually I think this is just the SC24 projection , not showing anything from SC25 as per the April forecast - still looks quiet and will be updated before years end but not Maunder style just yet...

https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-...in-solar-cycle
I was wondering when I seen that chart as it did seem a very extreme prediction where levels flatline with no activity at all when it should be well into SC25.
Still it will be interesting to see how things pan out in the coming year or 2, and what predictions come by the end of the year.
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25-10-2019, 08:10   #819
BLIZZARD7
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From Spaceweather.com -

Quote:
DEEP SOLAR MINIMUM: Last year, the sun was blank (without sunspots) for 221 days. That marked 2018 as a year of deep Solar Minimum. This year is shaping up to be even deeper. As of today, the sun in 2019 also has been blank for 221 days--and it's only October. 2019 is blowing past 2018 in the race to the bottom of the solar cycle, and by the end of the year could rank as the deepest Solar Minimum in a century

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 22 days
2019 total: 221 days (74%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)

If we continue blank at the same rate as recently for the rest of the year I reckon we will finish up 75-79% blank.

Last edited by BLIZZARD7; 26-10-2019 at 02:19.
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25-10-2019, 11:02   #820
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I see a few predictions for 270ish days for the year
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26-10-2019, 21:50   #821
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Freezing spring, pretty much none existing summer, bone-chill winter-ish autumn...
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30-10-2019, 16:59   #822
bazlers
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BLIZZARD7 View Post
From Spaceweather.com -




Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 22 days
2019 total: 221 days (74%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)

If we continue blank at the same rate as recently for the rest of the year I reckon we will finish up 75-79% blank.
Hi,
is this theory getting any recognition?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3
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30-10-2019, 20:56   #823
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Hi,
is this theory getting any recognition?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3



From that article
Quote:
The resulting summary curve reveals a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity reported in the past millennia including the significant grand solar minima: Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), Wolf minimum (1200), Oort minimum (1010–1050), Homer minimum (800–900 BC) combined with the grand solar maxima: the medieval warm period (900–1200), the Roman warm period (400–10BC) etc. It also predicts the upcoming grand solar minimum, similar to Maunder Minimum, which starts in 2020 and will last until 2055.


....


The terrestrial temperature is expected to grow during maxima of 11 year solar cycles and to decrease during their minima. Furthermore, the substantial temperature decreases are expected during the two grand minima47 to occur in 2020–2055 and 2370–24156, whose magnitudes cannot be yet predicted and need further investigation. These oscillations of the estimated terrestrial temperature do not include any human-induced factors, which were outside the scope of the current paper.

It looks like we could be entering a period of stagnating temperature rise or even a small drop in (average) global temperatures over the next couple of decades. The scary thing is that the cooling will probably cause significantly cooler temperatures in this part of the world along with the reduced crop production etc.


It will also destroy the credibility of climate change advocates whose claims of "man-made global warming" will become completely discredited, however when the sun moves out of the quiet phase, there could be a rapid and relentless rise in global temperatures as CO2 levels could (probably) be 500+ by then.
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02-11-2019, 07:03   #824
bazlers
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First Sunspot in a while.

SOLAR CYCLE 25 IS SLOWLY COMING TO LIFE: There's a sunspot (AR2750) on the sun today. That doesn't happen often during a deep Solar Minimum like the one we're experiencing now. AR2750 is a sign that Solar Minimum won't last forever. Its magnetic polarity marks it as a member of the next solar cycle. Indeed, Solar Cycle 25 is slowly coming to life, heralding a new Solar Maximum as early as 2023.
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02-11-2019, 10:08   #825
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Well that's a quick turnaround!
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