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31-10-2019, 20:30   #1
Meteorite58
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Rainfall / Wind warnings : Fri 1st - Sat 2nd Nov 2019

Thought a thread worthy as could get some high rainfall totals coupled with strong winds Fri 1st into Sat 2nd.

Can amend title if wind warnings are added.




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IMO ECM 12Z is showing about the middle ground for wind speeds early Sat morning into the day. Currently showing the strongest winds on the Kerry / W Cork coasts, gusting up to about 100 or 110 km/h and 70 to 90 km/h overland in the SW for a time , blustery day to follow in the SW and along coasts.

EURO 4 and ICON showing it stronger as does the WRF -NMM surprisingly. ARPEGEE shows it weaker , keeping most of the winds off shore.

So ECM to me has been showing the most consistency and the WRF -NMM I would reckon also, so perhaps somewhere in between the two leaning towards the ECM.










Rainfall wise agreement in the SW getting the most rainfall. Met Eireanns prediction of 30 to 40mm with higher totals in uplands at this stage would look right to me.






Last edited by Meteorite58; 31-10-2019 at 20:39.
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31-10-2019, 20:32   #2
JanuarySnowstor
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Looks a very potent system for the South coast. Pretty strong chance it will be named and if current trends persist rightly so!!
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31-10-2019, 20:41   #3
M.T. Cranium
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What name can we expect if so?
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31-10-2019, 20:52   #4
Meteorite58
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I think it is the first storm name off the list ' Atiyah'.

Certainly looks more potent wind wise for parts of the UK and France.







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31-10-2019, 22:57   #5
refusetolose
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i know this fellas not held in high regard around here but here's his take on it

https://twitter.com/JointCyclone/sta...10053530664973
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01-11-2019, 08:15   #6
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They describe it as a subtropical storm in a later update of theirs. They should probably stick to their interest in storms much further south.
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01-11-2019, 08:17   #7
Meteorite58
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Models in fairly broad agreement now of track showing the strongest winds staying off shore, windy along coasts , Kerry the windiest for a time but not looking too excessive. Rainfall totals back a tad in the SW as the Low tracks a bit further South, have increased a bit for the West.






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01-11-2019, 08:25   #8
dsmythy
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South Coast UK getting a good go there. Definitely getting named. Prepare yourself for the comments about 'what storm'.
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01-11-2019, 11:02   #9
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Wind update from the BBC shipping forecast wonder how it will be near the Coasts

Gale warning
Issued: 09:56 (UTC) on Fri 1 Nov 2019
Westerly severe gale force 9 increasing violent storm force 11 later
Wind Southwest 5 to 7, veering west gale 8 to storm 10.Sea state Rough or very rough, becoming high or very high later.Weather Rain at times.VisibilityModerate or poor.
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01-11-2019, 11:11   #10
Oscar Bravo
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Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

From Friday afternoon to midnight on Saturday night, rainfall amounts of 30 to 60 mm with a risk of spot flooding. Highest amounts will be in Co. Kerry, especially in mountainous areas.

Valid: Friday 01 November 2019 12:00 to Saturday 02 November 2019 23:59



Status: YellowWind warning for Wexford, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

Overnight, West to southwest winds, veering northwesterly, will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65 km/h with gusts of 90 to 110 Km/h, and higher in coastal and mountainous areas of Kerry and Cork

Valid: Friday 01 November 2019 23:00 to Saturday 02 November 2019 06:00

Issued: Friday 01 November 2019 10:00
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01-11-2019, 12:16   #11
Meteorite58
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Mod Note: Please stay on topic this thread is not for debating the validity of yellow warnings or if they should have dedicated threads.
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01-11-2019, 12:37   #12
km79
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Galway no longer on met warning
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01-11-2019, 13:15   #13
The_Outsider
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Glad this one missed us.
SW UK and NW France get it on the chin with 130kmh+ gusts.....

https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/wi...e-tomorrow-mk/
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01-11-2019, 15:09   #14
JanuarySnowstor
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Looks damaging on South coast to me
12zs rolling shortly
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01-11-2019, 15:31   #15
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End of the World in Galway very dark absolutely lashing rain here, really miss the ME rain radar today.

Last edited by Storm 10; 01-11-2019 at 15:36.
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