Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

Blut2 · 20-05-2020 2:30pm

double jobbing wrote: »

Can't even imagine the appeal from a tourism point of view. Who wants to go on holidays to stay in a house? Imagine booking an AirBnB for Paddys weekend and the owner fails to show up for whatever reason. Stuck sleeping in Busaras or the airport with your luggage for the night because you tried saving a few quid.

If you're in a group its generally much more convenient (and sometimes cheaper) to get an airbnb than multiple hotel rooms.

Say theres 5 of you in a family or group of friends traveling - that means you'll need 3 hotel rooms. For well under the price of 3 decent hotel rooms you'll get a 3bedroom house/apartment instead, in most cities. And as a bonus the apartment/house will be far more sociable, with living areas etc to spend time in. And often in a better location in a lot of cities, where there mightn't be many hotels near the nightlife area.

And as other posters have mentioned the whole system is based on reviews, so if you're staying in someone's place who has 100+ previous positive reviews, extensive photos/info etc, you can be fairly certain everything will go smoothly.

JimmyVik · 20-05-2020 2:43pm

I love Airbnb. And its other clones that are rising up the last year or so, which I wont mention lest they become a target of socialists too and I cant get my good value accommodation (whenever I can go again) anymore

Blut2 · 20-05-2020 4:25pm

To go back to the reduction in rents theme, a lot of universities are now announcing they're going to be entirely online for next year:

Cambridge university is planning to cancel all face-to-face lectures for the entire 2020-21 academic year

Manchester university has already announced a switch to online learning for the autumn academic term

In the US, the California State university system, which teaches almost 500,000 students, this week became the largest of a number of institutions announcing that all its courses would be taught online for the autumn semester this year.

https://www.ft.com/content/65a1feb8-2eb6-44c3-815c-e05dfe9e1193

If (or possibly when) the Irish universities do similar that will have an impact on the rental market here. A lot of young people staying at home with their family instead of renting in Dublin/Galway/Cork etc.

Not huge by itself - but in combination with the hundreds of thousands of job losses, foreign workers going home, WFH expanding massively etc... its starting to seem like death by a thousand cuts.

1huge1 · 20-05-2020 4:32pm

Will many foreign workers be going home? Its hard to say given that the unemployment situation in their home countries by be worse than ours once the pandemic is over.

Blut2 · 20-05-2020 5:07pm

1huge1 wrote: »

Will many foreign workers be going home? Its hard to say given that the unemployment situation in their home countries by be worse than ours once the pandemic is over.

It was discussed earlier in the thread. The general consensus was why would they stay in Dublin, paying astronomical rent, while facing long term unemployment?

Some won't even qualify for the dole here, but even if they do it would be near impossible to pay Dublin rents on 800e a month income and have much left over for anything else. And thats only if they're over 25 - trying to do it on the reduced rates dole would be even harder.

Much better to be unemployed at home in the family house in Poland/Brazil/wherever, with much lower living costs. If things pick up here much faster than expected they can always come back.

double jobbing · 20-05-2020 11:26pm

Dav010 wrote: »

Try it. Then write about it. Both Hosts and Guests are reviewed so chances of you being stuck in Busaras are slim indeed.

Blut2 wrote: »

And as other posters have mentioned the whole system is based on reviews, so if you're staying in someone's place who has 100+ previous positive reviews, extensive photos/info etc, you can be fairly certain everything will go smoothly.

Illness?

A family member suddenly falling ill?

Eejit has lost the keys?

A disaster befalls me or one of the group involving us losing a key at 3am?

The things people will do to save 20 quid. You'd have to pay me to use one. But then again I'm funny- I prefer to buy my brand name gear in bricks and mortar shops for cheaper rather than buy it for more online and wait 4 days for a deliveryman to throw it in the neighbours bin without ringing the doorbell.

double jobbing · 20-05-2020 11:31pm

Blut2 wrote: »

It was discussed earlier in the thread. The general consensus was why would they stay in Dublin, paying astronomical rent, while facing long term unemployment?

Some won't even qualify for the dole here, but even if they do it would be near impossible to pay Dublin rents on 800e a month income and have much left over for anything else. And thats only if they're over 25 - trying to do it on the reduced rates dole would be even harder.

Much better to be unemployed at home in the family house in Poland/Brazil/wherever, with much lower living costs. If things pick up here much faster than expected they can always come back.

Most E Europeans and S Americans would

a- be qualified for the payment

b- be living in cramped quarters so paying relatively little rent. 1400 per month isn't too bad if you're paying 300 a month rent.

It's only Germans, Spanish, Italians who pay silly money like 900 for a room. And a great deal of them are on a very mediocre wage not a lot more than 1400.

Assetbacked · 21-05-2020 12:28am

An airbnb utilser company formerly called Airsorted, now called Houst, has an office in Dublin with the bells and whistles of a "we're not a typical company" tech bull****, seems to be MIA. Their model is to take the hassle out of hosting on Airbnb.

https://www.houst.com/dublin/

https://uk.trustpilot.com/review/airsorted.com?utm_medium=trustbox&utm_source=Carousel

They've previously written about the severe hotel room shortage in Dublin under the guide of safeguarding Irish tourism https://blog.houst.com/ireland/dublin/safeguarding-irish-tourism/

LuckyLloyd · 21-05-2020 7:17am

Assetbacked wrote: »

An airbnb utilser company formerly called Airsorted, now called Houst, has an office in Dublin with the bells and whistles of a "we're not a typical company" tech bull****, seems to be MIA. Their model is to take the hassle out of hosting on Airbnb.

https://www.houst.com/dublin/

https://uk.trustpilot.com/review/airsorted.com?utm_medium=trustbox&utm_source=Carousel

They've previously written about the severe hotel room shortage in Dublin under the guide of safeguarding Irish tourism https://blog.houst.com/ireland/dublin/safeguarding-irish-tourism/

Wow, so dodge. Clearly using fake reviews too there to prop up their rating.

No doubt they’ll pop up under a third name when travel returns.

Blut2 · 21-05-2020 12:36pm

double jobbing wrote: »

Illness?

A family member suddenly falling ill?

Eejit has lost the keys?

A disaster befalls me or one of the group involving us losing a key at 3am?

The things people will do to save 20 quid. You'd have to pay me to use one. But then again I'm funny- I prefer to buy my brand name gear in bricks and mortar shops for cheaper rather than buy it for more online and wait 4 days for a deliveryman to throw it in the neighbours bin without ringing the doorbell.

Illness or a family member falling ill would presumably involve going to a doctor or hospital, regardless of where you're staying. And neither happens with any regularity on a holiday. If you can't be trusted to mind your own keys like an adult then thats rather on you, not an inherent flaw of airbnbs. Though lots of airbnbs do have pincodes or combination locks these days, and don't require any keys at all anyway.

double jobbing wrote: »

Most E Europeans and S Americans would

a- be qualified for the payment

b- be living in cramped quarters so paying relatively little rent. 1400 per month isn't too bad if you're paying 300 a month rent.

It's only Germans, Spanish, Italians who pay silly money like 900 for a room. And a great deal of them are on a very mediocre wage not a lot more than 1400.

A large chunk of foreign people here are students - they don't qualify for any dole payment. And yes, some do live 4 to a room and pay lower rent, but if someone is living 4 people to a room here paying 300e a month thats even more reason why they'll break their lease and go back to Brazil (or elsewhere).

Can you imagine living through months long quarantine sharing a room with 3 other people? No work or social life to escape to? And paying still quite substantial rent, and still high other living costs for the privilege? Thats worse than a jail sentence - you wouldn't be 4 to a room in Mountjoy.

Ozark707 · 21-05-2020 12:58pm

Blut2 wrote: »

A large chunk of foreign people here are students - they don't qualify for any dole payment. And yes, some do live 4 to a room and pay lower rent, but if someone is living 4 people to a room here paying 300e a month thats even more reason why they'll break their lease and go back to Brazil (or elsewhere).
.

Quite a number of childminders are paid cash in hand and as a result Will not be eligible for payment either. This will be quite a blow as they would probably be getting approx 500 a week and would have been able to have had a relatively decent standard of accommodation. With so many now cutting their childcare I imagine many have lost their jobs right now.

double jobbing · 21-05-2020 7:26pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Illness or a family member falling ill would presumably involve going to a doctor or hospital, regardless of where you're staying. And neither happens with any regularity on a holiday. I

I'm talking about illness or family death befalling the host. You'd want to be some halfwit to book a place to stay and be gambling on the "host" not happening to have a heart attack, a family member ill, or some other disaster befall them.

Dav010 · 21-05-2020 7:35pm

double jobbing wrote: »

I'm talking about illness or family death befalling the host. You'd want to be some halfwit to book a place to stay and be gambling on the "host" not happening to have a heart attack, a family member ill, or some other disaster befall them.

Statistically I doubt the Host maladies you describe would be much of a gamble. If you think that way, how do you leave your home?

double jobbing · 21-05-2020 8:19pm

Dav010 wrote: »

Statistically I doubt the Host maladies you describe would be much of a gamble. If you think that way, how do you leave your home?

When I leave my home I'm not normally carrying a suitcase.

When I go on holiday I prefer to stay in a hotel rather than some vulture's apartment.

I'm simply amazed that anybody would use it.

Dav010 · 21-05-2020 8:35pm

double jobbing wrote: »

When I leave my home I'm not normally carrying a suitcase.

When I go on holiday I prefer to stay in a hotel rather than some vulture's apartment.

I'm simply amazed that anybody would use it.

The heightened expectation that something will afflict the person who you are booking with suggests that you worry about things that are highly unlikely to happen. Maybe you think all Hosts are prone to ill health. It’s kinda creepy to think all Hosts are sickly.

Most people who book Airbnb do so for reasons already discussed, like price, convenience, location, sharing a property with family or friends, facilities like a kitchen etc. If you haven’t tried it, you should.

Assetbacked · 21-05-2020 11:06pm

Facebook have essentially announced they are cutting salaries. The announcement has been Trojan horse into an announcement by Zuckerberg to staff that they aim to offer remote working to most staff in the next 5-10 years. However, he said salaries can be adjusted in line with cost of living where staff have related to. An indirect announcement about cutting salaries I suppose. If this impacts Dublin then of course it will be a benefit to ease the pressure on the rental market.

Ozark707 · 21-05-2020 11:33pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Facebook have essentially announced they are cutting salaries. The announcement has been Trojan horse into an announcement by Zuckerberg to staff that they aim to offer remote working to most staff in the next 5-10 years. However, he said salaries can be adjusted in line with cost of living where staff have related to. An indirect announcement about cutting salaries I suppose. If this impacts Dublin then of course it will be a benefit to ease the pressure on the rental market.

I wonder where that leaves the site at the old AIB HQ in Ballsbridge?

Claw Hammer · 22-05-2020 9:37am

Ozark707 wrote: »

I wonder where that leaves the site at the old AIB HQ in Ballsbridge?

It is still in the same place. I passed it this morning.

Ozark707 · 22-05-2020 9:58am

Claw Hammer wrote: »

It is still in the same place. I passed it this morning.

Well I mean I understood this was to be the new FB HQ with space for 8k workers or something like that. If they are projecting 50% will not be in an office will gargantuan projects like that remain viable especially if they want to reduce costs.

JimmyVik · 22-05-2020 1:53pm

double jobbing wrote: »

When I leave my home I'm not normally carrying a suitcase.

When I go on holiday I prefer to stay in a hotel rather than some vulture's apartment.

I'm simply amazed that anybody would use it.

I love AirBNB.
One of the best things to come in years as far as im concerned.
And the great thing is that usually you only have to go through the platform once. And if you stay at that persons property again you get even more of a discount.

JimmyVik · 22-05-2020 1:55pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

Well I mean I understood this was to be the new FB HQ with space for 8k workers or something like that. If they are projecting 50% will not be in an office will gargantuan projects like that remain viable especially if they want to reduce costs.

By the time this happens they will probably need 16k workers. 8K in the office and another 8 at home.

EvoEvo · 22-05-2020 2:51pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

Well I mean I understood this was to be the new FB HQ with space for 8k workers or something like that. If they are projecting 50% will not be in an office will gargantuan projects like that remain viable especially if they want to reduce costs.

a lot of company are projecting even 30 % percent...

Assetbacked · 22-05-2020 3:48pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

I love AirBNB.
One of the best things to come in years as far as im concerned.
And the great thing is that usually you only have to go through the platform once. And if you stay at that persons property again you get even more of a discount.

I think Airbnb has its place as well, though I tend towards more professional set ups who advertise on Airbnb to minimise risk. As you say, once you stay somewhere you can bypass airbnb to book the next time by going to direct to the host!

Blut2 · 01-06-2020 7:45pm

June 1st's figures came out today. The biggest jump yet in the number of available apartments:

And rents still declining too:

Zenify · 01-06-2020 7:48pm

Blut2 wrote: »

June 1st's figures came out today. The biggest jump yet in the number of available apartments:

And rents still declining too:

The first one....

That's some graph. Thats shocking

Graham · 01-06-2020 8:13pm

The graph is hardly surprising when you have supply being added to a market that is essentially closed.

I don't think you can read much into it until the market has reopened and been operating for a few weeks.

The_Conductor · 01-06-2020 8:31pm

It'll take more than a few weeks to 'normalise' the market.
Look at how many foreign workers in MNCs left Ireland since the start of March.
Frankly is staggering that the supply of vacant properties isn't almost 10 times higher than it actually is.

There is a small number of Irish nationals who returned here (possibly 12-15% the number of non-nationals who left)- but this doesn't account for how small the rise in vacant property was/is.........

Also- Trinity and UCD both put caps on the number of students allowed defer their 2020 starts on Saturday- as the numbers were soaring. This- alongside active measures to move up to 90% of classrooms online- means all the students who were traditionally hunting for their accommodation in July/August- won't be a factor this time round (or if they are- it'll be far less noticeable than previously).

Honestly- it will probably be September/October 2021- fully 14-16 months time- before we get a good idea of what is happening.

Dav010 · 01-06-2020 9:03pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

It'll take more than a few weeks to 'normalise' the market.
Look at how many foreign workers in MNCs left Ireland since the start of March.
Frankly is staggering that the supply of vacant properties isn't almost 10 times higher than it actually is.

There is a small number of Irish nationals who returned here (possibly 12-15% the number of non-nationals who left)- but this doesn't account for how small the rise in vacant property was/is.........

Also- Trinity and UCD both put caps on the number of students allowed defer their 2020 starts on Saturday- as the numbers were soaring. This- alongside active measures to move up to 90% of classrooms online- means all the students who were traditionally hunting for their accommodation in July/August- won't be a factor this time round (or if they are- it'll be far less noticeable than previously).

Honestly- it will probably be September/October 2021- fully 14-16 months time- before we get a good idea of what is happening.

I caught the end of a segment on The Last Word last week where someone from the students union was advising students not to enter rental agreements until it is confirmed when attendance at lectures is confirmed. It is expected that classes will be online for the first couple of months.

Ozark707 · 01-06-2020 9:04pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

It'll take more than a few weeks to 'normalise' the market.
Look at how many foreign workers in MNCs left Ireland since the start of March.
Frankly is staggering that the supply of vacant properties isn't almost 10 times higher than it actually is.

There is a small number of Irish nationals who returned here (possibly 12-15% the number of non-nationals who left)- but this doesn't account for how small the rise in vacant property was/is.........

Also- Trinity and UCD both put caps on the number of students allowed defer their 2020 starts on Saturday- as the numbers were soaring. This- alongside active measures to move up to 90% of classrooms online- means all the students who were traditionally hunting for their accommodation in July/August- won't be a factor this time round (or if they are- it'll be far less noticeable than previously).

Honestly- it will probably be September/October 2021- fully 14-16 months time- before we get a good idea of what is happening.

What is going to happen with all the purpose built student acc that is now or will shortly be on stream? I wonder will the owners apply for a change of use for them as otherwise they are going to have a huge shortfall in revenue. It is very hard to see who is going to shell out 270pw for a room in one of these places going forward.

Also you have to wonder the REITs can keep empties going? It was probably ok while rents were high but if you were previously paying >2.5k for a 2 bed you will probably start shopping around once restrictions are lifted. That could lead to a few ripples in those developments.

Blut2 · 01-06-2020 9:11pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

What is going to happen with all the purpose built student acc that is now or will shortly be on stream? I wonder will the owners apply for a change of use for them as otherwise they are going to have a huge shortfall in revenue. It is very hard to see who is going to shell out 270pw for a room in one of these places going forward.

Would the English language students qualify for them without a change of use? They would seem to be the obvious market if we don't have traditional UCD/TCD etc students back for another 15 months. Maybe with two single beds per room on top of prices falling pretty substantially.

Though I suppose that does assume we actually have any of them coming to Dublin either... Which theres no guarantee of if all the part time jobs in hospitality/retail/tourism are gone.

Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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