FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58 · 08-07-2019 10:19pm

Looks like Hp building the weekend and the weather turning more zonal after that perhaps with a bit more activity from the Atlantic , LPs starting to show up at the end of the ECM 12Z run as the GFS, been trending this now for a few runs.

squarecircles · 09-07-2019 6:05pm

heatwave conditions on the gfs 12z

Gonzo · 09-07-2019 6:24pm

The GFS is on it's own with that very hot run for now. Would need more models to fall in line. Still the latest ensembles are looking progressively warm with the GFS operational (thick Green Line) being a hot run at the end which get temperatures close to 30C (if easterly winds and cool Irish sea winds don't spoil it).

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2019-07-09&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2019-07-09&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

gugsy · 09-07-2019 9:08pm

Gonzo wrote:

The GFS is on it's own with that very hot run for now. Would need more models to fall in line. Still the latest ensembles are looking progressively warm with the GFS operational (thick Green Line) being a hot run at the end which get temperatures close to 30C (if easterly winds and cool Irish sea winds don't spoil it).

If memory serve me right I think the gfs picked up the last heat wave first.

sryanbruen · 09-07-2019 9:14pm

gugsy wrote: »

If memory serve me right I think the gfs picked up the last heat wave first.

That's correct and I found it completely hysterical given how extreme it was (also gave it a 0.00000001% chance of happening). Other models then latched on to the idea although it took a while to catch the signal of an onshore northeasterly wind for a few days first before the winds would go southeasterly.

GEFS have had very warm or hot outliers for several days now in FI.

nacho libre · 10-07-2019 7:43pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

That's correct and I found it completely hysterical given how extreme it was (also gave it a 0.00000001% chance of happening). Other models then latched on to the idea although it took a while to catch the signal of an onshore northeasterly wind for a few days first before the winds would go southeasterly.

GEFS have had very warm or hot outliers for several days now in FI.

It seems to me, while gfs lags behind in the verigication stats, it can be good at picking up a new trend. I hope it's wrong though. Anything above 30c in a concrete jungle, when you are stuck in traffic, is not nice.

Gonzo · 10-07-2019 7:55pm

looks uncertain what the weather will be like in a weeks time. The GFS has backed off from yesterday's hot run with something more average for later next week with cooler and more unsettled conditions towards the north, southern areas may be less unsettled. Hints of very warm weather returning into the last week of July.

The ECM is going for unsettled conditions from next Tuesday.

The GEM keeps us warm but more unsettled further north.

ICON looks unsettled a week from now too.

pauldry · 11-07-2019 9:35pm

Ya was looking at charts and I better go to the beach Sunday and Monday as there wont be any more chances in July in Northern half of Ireland. Rainfall amounts every day possible here after that.

I am hopeful for 1st good August in 16 years here. Law of averages and that. Plus last August was brutal.

Gonzo · 11-07-2019 9:52pm

pauldry wrote: »

Ya was looking at charts and I better go to the beach Sunday and Monday as there wont be any more chances in July in Northern half of Ireland. Rainfall amounts every day possible here after that.

I am hopeful for 1st good August in 16 years here. Law of averages and that. Plus last August was brutal.

right now the long term models are going for another unsettled August, but that's along way away, hopefully August will work out for us this year. May and June were awful this year, July is at least better, but so far this summer has been very uninspiring with most places away from the Shannon area struggling to even reach 23C so far this year.

Gonzo · 11-07-2019 9:58pm

this evenings ensembles still pointing towards a very warm or hot final week of July. I'd love if this continues into August. However this very warm trend is also looking rather unsettled with lots of rainfall spikes.

show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=201&bw=1&geoid=64981

show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=201&bw=1&geoid=64981

compsys · 11-07-2019 10:16pm

Gonzo wrote: »

this evenings ensembles still pointing towards a very warm or hot final week of July. I'd love if this continues into August. However this very warm trend is also looking rather unsettled with lots of rainfall spikes.

I could take the rain as long as it remains warm with a bit of sunshine.

It’s so nice to be able to have the heating off, the windows open and walk around in a t-shirt.

You’d think that’s a given in summer but not so after the miserable June we had!

pauldry · 12-07-2019 12:22am

The end of July hot spell will prob be only a day or 2.

They always dwindle closer to the time.

What Im hoping in August will happen will be a settled but maybe not hot spell. You know the ones. Cool nights and dry days. 18 to 20c.

Surely thats not too much to ask for

But yes the pub run is indeed looking hot

Meteorite58 · 13-07-2019 8:13pm

Unsettled looking next week end with LP's knocking about .

Gonzo · 14-07-2019 2:26pm

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-07-14&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

latest ensembles for Dublin look very unsettled later next week and beyond. Alot of uncertainty in terms of temperature, but looks like a warming trend. Some outlying members pushing for the +20C @850hpa. These unlikely to happen, also as we know from recent experience a very high upper air temperature doesn't mean anything if the winds are coming in from a cool Irish sea.

Meteorite58 · 14-07-2019 11:07pm

ECM showing a deep enough area of LP out towards the end of the run, long way off , just watching for trends atm, does look like the Jet is going more zonal.

sryanbruen · 15-07-2019 9:01pm

Vastly different ECM 12z tonight... it turns up the furnace in FI. Here we go again. Model uncertainties continue.

sryanbruen · 16-07-2019 11:04am

Back to an unsettled scenario again this morning from the ECM 0z... the remnants of Barry must be throwing a wrench into the works. The more unsettled scenario generally holds a higher chance for now.

Meteorite58 · 16-07-2019 8:58pm

ECM keeping that LP for next Monday, more off the coast now but atm looking a bit windy for the time of the year.

Showing it quite wet at times between Sun and Tues. Monday next is standing out as possibly quite warm.

sryanbruen · 17-07-2019 10:51am

Had a very brief look at some model output this morning and to me it looks like there could be some trouble brewing for parts of Ireland as several fronts come up against a moisture layered southwesterly flow of air with very warm conditions over England and Wales. There would be the possibility of some really heavy orographic rain which I think is rather unusual for summer and more typical of late autumn or winter.

Artane2002 · 17-07-2019 11:58am

sryanbruen wrote: »

Had a very brief look at some model output this morning and to me it looks like there could be some trouble brewing for parts of Ireland as several fronts come up against a moisture layered southwesterly flow of air with very warm conditions over England and Wales. There would be the possibility of some really heavy orographic rain which I think is rather unusual for summer and more typical of late autumn or winter.

Sounds kind of like the start of December 2015?

sryanbruen · 17-07-2019 2:16pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

Sounds kind of like the start of December 2015?

A recent comparison I can think of is 23/24 July 2012 (since December 2015 was a very different time of year and is prone to such heavy rainfall events). It started off with a rise in pressure over central Europe and a ridge from the Azores on the weekend of the 21st/22nd. The ridge was positioned to favour southwesterly winds and frontal systems pushed down from the northwest coming up against relatively warm air filtering in from the south Atlantic. There was outbreaks of heavy rain as you'd imagine though not as heavy as it could have been.

Difference this time around is the possibility of record breaking air filtering in from the south into England which will provide a greater contrast than in 2012. Highest 850hPa temp observation in 2012 was around 16c early on the 24th in southeast England (just reached 30c on 25th) whilst we could be talking more than 20c next week and like the end of June, this could be an attack on records there (though for surface temps, a lot of things could make the difference again just like the northeasterly wind did at the end of June).

The air mass over Ireland also looks warmer than in 2012, mainly on the ECM and GEM 0z as the GFS is a cooler option (though somewhat of an outlier in its ensemble). GFS 06z also shows none of the heat, not even a long fetched southerly to southwesterly wind.

archives-2012-7-24-12-0.png?

eon1208 · 18-07-2019 6:59am

sryanbruen wrote: »

A recent comparison I can think of is 23/24 July 2012 (since December 2015 was a very different time of year and is prone to such heavy rainfall events). It started off with a rise in pressure over central Europe and a ridge from the Azores on the weekend of the 21st/22nd. The ridge was positioned to favour southwesterly winds and frontal systems pushed down from the northwest coming up against relatively warm air filtering in from the south Atlantic. There was outbreaks of heavy rain as you'd imagine though not as heavy as it could have been.

Difference this time around is the possibility of record breaking air filtering in from the south into England which will provide a greater contrast than in 2012. Highest 850hPa temp observation in 2012 was around 16c early on the 24th in southeast England (just reached 30c on 25th) whilst we could be talking more than 20c next week and like the end of June, this could be an attack on records there (though for surface temps, a lot of things could make the difference again just like the northeasterly wind did at the end of June).

The air mass over Ireland also looks warmer than in 2012, mainly on the ECM and GEM 0z as the GFS is a cooler option (though somewhat of an outlier in its ensemble). GFS 06z also shows none of the heat, not even a long fetched southerly to southwesterly wind.

How do the two fronts intermingling cause such heavy rainfall physically speaking Sryan....

hatrickpatrick · 18-07-2019 9:42am

Would there be an enhanced potential for thunderstorms in that scenario?

squarecircles · 19-07-2019 11:49am

GFS 06z has briefly spewed the +20 degree isotherm over ireland by the end of next week,

UK being scortched alive, phenomenal night time minima over there.

Could this be the hottest period of the summer coming for them,potentially record breaking.

Could the Atlantic be held back,could we steal some of their heat.

Will kermit the frog appear.

Interesting model watching ahead.

Villain · 19-07-2019 2:01pm

Bit of an outlier, mind you has some support:

gefsens850Dublin0.png?w=800&h=600&mode=stretch&quality=40&colors=128&cb=2019071915

squarecircles · 19-07-2019 9:49pm

Jean Byrne mentioned mid twenties next week possibly high twenties,
pig muck along Atlantic coasts of the southwest west and Northwest however.

sryanbruen · 20-07-2019 12:22pm

ECM looks like holding onto the warm and more settled weather for longer this morning (also looks like the kind of pattern that’s conducive to a prolonged pattern of such) but GFS is not interested at all and I wouldn’t be surprised if the GFS is right.

sryanbruen · 20-07-2019 1:55pm

eon1208 wrote: »

How do the two fronts intermingling cause such heavy rainfall physically speaking Sryan....

Well it's not necessarily the front(s) on their own causing the heavy rainfall to occur, it's the contrast between cooler air filtering in from the North Atlantic and the humid, warm air from the south Atlantic.

Naturally, warm air is able to hold more moisture than cold air and it rises over the cool air. The warm air results in clouds forming from condensation and precipitation falls. Why this is more typical for late autumn and winter time is because by then, the land is cooler than the sea (which is where the southwesterly winds draw the relatively mild air from) compared to in summer where it's the opposite. Long fetched southwesterly winds with front(s) crossing the country tend to deliver our heaviest rainfall events like Nov 2009, Dec 2015 etc (although not really the case in summer as intense rain showers or thunderstorms do that generally). Not impossible to occur, just less likely I found.

pauldry · 20-07-2019 4:51pm

How come ECM is right in Winter when its freezing but GFS is right in Summer when its.....freezing

sryanbruen · 20-07-2019 9:19pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

ECM looks like holding onto the warm and more settled weather for longer this morning (also looks like the kind of pattern that’s conducive to a prolonged pattern of such) but GFS is not interested at all and I wouldn’t be surprised if the GFS is right.

ECM has now sided with the GFS on its 12z run and GFS has not changed. The period after Tuesday looks strikingly similar to the end of April following the warm Easter period (without a Storm Hannah) with a circulation of lows developing over or close to Ireland through the final week of July.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST