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December 2016 Boards forecast contest

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,108 ✭✭✭John mac


    12:00 report for pheonix park .. 16 deg ..


  • Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    John mac wrote: »
    12:00 report for pheonix park .. 16 deg ..

    Pheonix Park 16.0 confirmed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Wer all bollxd for December

    Bloody global warming


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Report on first week, the cold start was almost obliterated by yesterday's warmer readings ...

    but it managed to come in below average for the week ...

    IMT of 5.6 was 0.6 below the normal for the period.

    PRC was 24% of normal.

    SUN was 63% of normal.


  • Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Models continue to show warm (and dry) southerlies.
    Will Norma beat Con again this month?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    That owl con couldnt predict a raindrop anymore. Lets all be normal.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Data for the second week ...

    IMT now on 7.1 thanks to a very mild second week at 8.6 (which was +2.7 relative to normal). If the rest of the month averages 4 then the final value would be 5.3 C, seems unlikely to be far from that in either direction but just a rough guide at this point.

    PRC is up to 63% of normal as the second week was close to average at 102%, the southeast ran considerably wetter than the north. This appears likely to keep climbing although no guarantee it would reach normal for the month.

    SUN now close to 80% of normal, the week managed 98% with the west doing best; with such small amounts required for normal sunshine, this seems headed towards the above normal category with even modest amounts in view.

    MAX and MIN as reported earlier, I think.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    pauldry wrote: »
    Wer all bollxd for December

    Bloody global warming

    Yeah December has been a disaster for forecasting :cool:. Maybe 2017 will bring us the cold December we've all been waiting for since 2010.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After the third week ...

    IMT now on 6.3 after a relatively cool week (mean 4.7, 0.8 below average).

    PRC is up to 75% with this past week almost right on the average at 101%.

    SUN has made the most of its limited opportunity near the winter solstice, the week averaged 153% of normal and this makes the monthly average 105%.

    Although it was quite cold at a few locations, the MIN reported earlier remains intact. MAX of 16.0 may get a minor challenge on Christmas Day but I think 14 will be about the top value from now on.


  • Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Duck eggs all round for Christmas Day!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Oak Park max. 13.8
    Knock min. 3.6


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The bonus question was answered by a blast of warmth, 13.5 and 5.7 were the extremes for Dublin(A) and despite a slight window of opportunity early on 24th as per the rules, I did not detect any evidence of snow at weather recording sites, so the official answer there is no (may have been a coating on hills after a rather cold and showery night 23rd-24th).

    The scoring for the December bonus adds that extra three points so the scoring for the bonus is really out of 13 and the month 103.

    As nobody came very close to guessing how mild it would be, especially the minimum which itself was only achieved in the last hour (morning minimum was about 10 C), the scoring will pretty much follow the guesses from mildest (using total of max and min) at ten points (Pauldry, who came closest to the min at 4.4, and 200motels, who was closest to the max at 11.0); nine points will go to Bsal and sunflower3, eight will go to Lumi, MrSkinner and DOCARCH, shared with NormaL; then it would be seven points for JoePublic, JPmarn and Tae laidir, six for Rameire and mickger844posts, shared with Con Sensus; then five for MTC, John mac and Kindred Spirit; four points for Waterways and Rikand; three points for JD and Dasa29, two points for Dacogawa and Sryanbruen, and one point for Blizzard7.

    Add to that your three bonus points if you said no snow.

    For your interest this is an early look at the provisional scoring:


    Provisional scoring for December 2016

    The values chosen for this approximation are IMT 6.0 (it may be higher, this value requires no minimum progression adjustments, anything higher would give most people about the same boost anyway), then MAX 16.0, MIN --5.9, PRC 68, SUN 115 and the bonus points as explained above.

    FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Dub25th_Snow _ TOTAL

    Sunflower3 ________ 16 _ 19*_ 20 __08 _ 09 ___ 09 _ 03 _____ 84

    NormaL ___________ 19 _ 18*_ 18*_ 04 _ 07 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 77

    MrSkinner _________ 17 _ 09*_ 18*_ 10 _ 09 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 74
    Tae laidir __________22 _ 16*_ 10*_ 09 _ 06 ___ 07 _ 03 _____ 73
    Pauldry ___________ 18 _ 10*_ 06*_ 08 _ 10 ___ 10 _ 03 _____ 65
    Joe Public __ (-4) ___ 15 _ 16*_ 15*_ 05 _ 07 ___ 07 _ 03 _ 68-4=64
    Lumi _____________ 23 _ 06*_ 17*_ 02 _ 04 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 63
    DOCARCH _________ 08 _ 12*_ 07*_ 15 _ 10 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 63
    M.T. Cranium ______ 14 _ 13*_ 10*_ 11 _ 09 ___ 05 _ 00 _____ 62
    Rameire ___________12 _ 02*_ 14*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 59

    Consensus _________14 _ 09*_ 10*_ 09 _ 08 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 59

    200motels _________21 _ 04*_ 16*_ 01 _ 03 ___ 10 _ 03 _____ 58
    Jpmarn__(-2) ______ 14 _ 12*_ 10*_ 06 _ 08 ___ 07 _ 03 _ 60-2=58
    jd ___ (-2) ________ 14 _ 16*_ 05*_ 10 _ 09 ___ 03 _ 00 _ 57-2=55
    Rikand ____________10 _ 18*_ 04*_ 11 _ 08 ___ 04 _ 00 _____ 55
    Dacogawa _________15 _ 10*_ 02*_ 10 _ 07 ___ 02 _ 00 _____ 46
    Bsal ______________15 _ 02*_ 14*_ 00 _ 03 ___ 09 _ 03 _____ 46
    john mac __________11 _ 04*_ 12*_ 05 _ 09 ___ 05 _ 00 _____ 46
    sryanbruen ________ 07 _ 18*_ 03*_ 09 _ 07 ___ 02 _ 00 _____ 46
    mickger844posts ____05 _ 01*_ 12*_ 12 _ 07 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 46
    Kindred Spirit ______ 05 _ 09*_ 01*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 05 _ 03 _____ 44
    waterways _________12 _ 05*_ 01*_ 09 _ 09 ___ 04 _ 00 _____ 40
    dasa29 ____________15 _ 00 __02*_ 01 _ 07 ___ 03 _ 00 _____ 28
    BLIZZARD7 __ (-6) __00 _ 07*_ 00 __13 _ 08 ___ 01 _ 00 _29-6=23
    __________________________________________________________

    Looks very close at the top of the annual table, I won't even venture a guess there so we'll wait for these provisionals to settle, PRC and SUN are probably most likely to shift a little.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The IMT may finish as high as 6.3 as there was not much frost the past two nights.

    That sets up a rather odd sequence for scoring where top score (Lumi, changes to 24) and the bottom half of the IMT scores (all three lower except the existing zero) are higher than or equal to minimum progression and the scores now sitting from 15 to 22 would stay at that value or would not drop by three for minimum progression. I am looking at whether this has happened before and what it would do to the close annual scoring as I want the outcome to be fair. I may conclude this is a case where minimum progression is not required to get a fair result, but hopefully I can apply it and not change the order of finish.

    The 68% PRC might come in closer to 72% if there is any significant rain on New Years Eve. I think the average will be closer to 5 mm than 10 mm. Right now if it didn't rain again this month the finish would be 67%. Sunshine probably set if it remains mostly cloudy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Report after four weeks ...

    IMT sits at 6.4 C, the past week was a mild 6.8 that ran 1.4 above normal for the period. This will probably finish up on 6.3 or 6.4 as today, tomorrow and New Years Eve all look to run close to 6 on average.

    MAX 16.0 and MIN --5.9 continue from earlier despite some near misses.

    PRC is estimated to be 72% with this week between 65 and 70 depending on what Malin Head recorded (has been missing from data for a few days). The week appears to have been drier in the southeast than the northwest. In the provisional scoring I went with 68% but that may be a bit low, if you said more than 75% you will likely find an extra point or two in the final report.

    SUN has edged up further to 111% with this past week managing 128% of the meagre normal values. Any appearance at all of the sun in the last three days should keep this near 110% which is lower than I estimated too, one point different for all scores depending on which side of 112.5 you went as the scores were based on 115. It may be closer and just bounce a few scores around.


    The January 2017 forecast thread is open. Happy New Year.

    Confirmed (adjusted) scores and the annual scoring report will follow along, the MS won't appear until 3 Jan (I think) but I should be able to work out the numbers ahead of that and then just confirm them from the MS.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Malin Head data back in the system (I guess the operator was away for Christmas and returned to read the automatic data) and the PRC looks a bit lower than I estimated so if today's 5-10 mm doesn't hit too hard in the 11-station grid, I expect the mean to come in around 70 or 71 per cent. That will boost most scores in the provisional table by one unless you were below 68, then you would lose one point.

    The IMT could be as high as 6.5, if that's the case it will revert to minimum progression even for the highest score (6.2, would go from 22 to 23).

    I will at the first moment of sobriety in 2017 estimate more closely and revise the provisional table. I had a look at the annual race, Sunflower3 was already leading that and did a great job of finishing in style. MrSkinner probably has enough points from a solid December to maintain his lead in the total points division. Lumi could move up slightly, others near the top could fall back a peg or two. Some of us "also-rans" will maintain our rankings. Nothing much is likely to change from the November table.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Some confirmed and better estimated numbers now ...

    IMT 6.6 (rounded up from 6.56)

    PRC 74%

    SUN 110%

    These result in the following amendments to the provisional scoring. Final confirmed scoring to be posted on 3rd of January together with the annual scoring report.

    Provisional scoring for December 2016


    FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Dub25th_Snow _ TOTAL

    Sunflower3 ________ 18*_ 19*_ 20 __10 _ 10 ___ 09 _ 03 _____ 89

    NormaL ___________ 20*_ 18*_ 18*_ 06 _ 08 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 81

    MrSkinner _________ 19*_ 09*_ 18*_ 12 _ 10 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 79
    Tae laidir __________22*_ 16*_ 10*_ 11 _ 07 ___ 07 _ 03 _____ 76
    Joe Public __ (-4) ___ 17*_ 16*_ 15*_ 07 _ 08 ___ 07 _ 03 _ 73-4=69
    Pauldry ___________ 20*_ 10*_ 06*_ 10 _ 09 ___ 10 _ 03 _____ 68
    Lumi _____________ 23*_ 06*_ 17*_ 04 _ 05 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 66
    M.T. Cranium ______ 13*_ 13*_ 10*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 05 _ 00 _____ 62
    200motels _________21*_ 04*_ 16*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 10 _ 03 _____ 61

    Consensus _________13*_ 09*_ 10*_ 11 _ 09 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 61

    Jpmarn__(-2) ______ 13*_ 12*_ 10*_ 08 _ 09 ___ 07 _ 03 _ 62-2=60
    DOCARCH _________ 06*_ 12*_ 07*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 58
    Rameire ___________10*_ 02*_ 14*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 56
    jd ___ (-2) ________ 13*_ 16*_ 05*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 00 _ 57-2=55
    Rikand ____________07*_ 18*_ 04*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 04 _ 00 _____ 53
    Dacogawa _________17*_ 10*_ 02*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 02 _ 00 _____ 51
    Bsal ______________17*_ 02*_ 14*_ 01 _ 04 ___ 09 _ 03 _____ 50
    john mac __________08*_ 04*_ 12*_ 07 _ 10 ___ 05 _ 00 _____ 46
    Kindred Spirit ______ 04*_ 09*_ 01*_ 15 _ 07 ___ 05 _ 03 _____ 44
    mickger844posts ____04*_ 01*_ 12*_ 10 _ 06 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 42
    sryanbruen ________ 05*_ 18*_ 03*_ 07 _ 06 ___ 02 _ 00 _____ 41
    waterways _________10*_ 05*_ 01*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 04 _ 00 _____ 41
    dasa29 ___________ 17*_ 00 __02*_ 03 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 00 _____ 33
    BLIZZARD7 __ (-6) __02*_ 07*_ 00 __15 _ 07 ___ 01 _ 00 _32-6=26
    __________________________________________________________

    (to be confirmed on 3rd January)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Some confirmed and better estimated numbers now ...

    IMT 6.6 (rounded up from 6.56)

    PRC 74%

    SUN 110%

    These result in the following amendments to the provisional scoring. Final confirmed scoring to be posted on 3rd of January together with the annual scoring report.

    Provisional scoring for December 2016


    FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Dub25th_Snow _ TOTAL

    Sunflower3 ________ 18*_ 19*_ 20 __10 _ 10 ___ 09 _ 03 _____ 89

    NormaL ___________ 20*_ 18*_ 18*_ 06 _ 08 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 81

    MrSkinner _________ 19*_ 09*_ 18*_ 12 _ 10 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 79
    Tae laidir __________22*_ 16*_ 10*_ 11 _ 07 ___ 07 _ 03 _____ 76
    Joe Public __ (-4) ___ 17*_ 16*_ 15*_ 07 _ 08 ___ 07 _ 03 _ 73-4=69
    Pauldry ___________ 20*_ 10*_ 06*_ 10 _ 09 ___ 10 _ 03 _____ 68
    Lumi _____________ 23*_ 06*_ 17*_ 04 _ 05 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 66
    M.T. Cranium ______ 13*_ 13*_ 10*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 05 _ 00 _____ 62
    200motels _________21*_ 04*_ 16*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 10 _ 03 _____ 61

    Consensus _________13*_ 09*_ 10*_ 11 _ 09 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 61

    Jpmarn__(-2) ______ 13*_ 12*_ 10*_ 08 _ 09 ___ 07 _ 03 _ 62-2=60
    DOCARCH _________ 06*_ 12*_ 07*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 58
    Rameire ___________10*_ 02*_ 14*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 56
    jd ___ (-2) ________ 13*_ 16*_ 05*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 00 _ 57-2=55
    Rikand ____________07*_ 18*_ 04*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 04 _ 00 _____ 53
    Dacogawa _________17*_ 10*_ 02*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 02 _ 00 _____ 51
    Bsal ______________17*_ 02*_ 14*_ 01 _ 04 ___ 09 _ 03 _____ 50
    john mac __________08*_ 04*_ 12*_ 07 _ 10 ___ 05 _ 00 _____ 46
    Kindred Spirit ______ 04*_ 09*_ 01*_ 15 _ 07 ___ 05 _ 03 _____ 44
    mickger844posts ____04*_ 01*_ 12*_ 10 _ 06 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 42
    sryanbruen ________ 05*_ 18*_ 03*_ 07 _ 06 ___ 02 _ 00 _____ 41
    waterways _________10*_ 05*_ 01*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 04 _ 00 _____ 41
    dasa29 ___________ 17*_ 00 __02*_ 03 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 00 _____ 33
    BLIZZARD7 __ (-6) __02*_ 07*_ 00 __15 _ 07 ___ 01 _ 00 _32-6=26
    __________________________________________________________

    (to be confirmed on 3rd January)

    Good riddance to you December 2016, a huge disappointment of a Winter month.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Well, I was expecting to find the December Monthly Summary on line today, but apparently not, I gather Monday was a holiday and this pushes back the publication date to Wed 4th.

    I don't want to do a provisional annual table that will need any significant changes made, so I will hold off on the final report until I can check my December estimates against the official data.

    Later ...


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Having checked the Monthly Summary, I can confirm the scoring for December as per the above table and this is the report on the annual scoring for 2016.


    Annual scoring Jan to Dec 2016


    best 10 of 12 ___________________________________________________________ all months

    rank/score_FORECASTER _ Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct_Nov_Dec __ TOTAL SCORE (rank)


    01 717 sunflower3 _____ 72 _ 71 _ 81 _ 43 _ 61 _ 63 _ 74 _ 73 _ 62 _ 71 _ 42 _ 89 __ 802 (2)
    02 702 MrSkinner______ 83 _ 66 _ 64 _ 58 _ 73 _ 67 _ 71 _ 69 _ 58 _ 65 _ 65 _ 79 __ 818 (1)

    03 698 _ Con Sensus ___ 73 _ 75 _ 77 _ 70 _ 67 _ 57 _ 65 _ 68 _ 65 _ 77 _ 49 _ 61 __ 804 (2)


    03 689 Lumi __________ 71 _ 72 _ 89 _ 59 _ 65 _ 60 _ 57 _ 74 _ 46 _ 76 _ 33 _ 66 __ 768 (4)
    04 672 Dacogawa ______ 52 _ 58 _ 89 _ 50 _ 75 _ 47 _ 66 _ 59 _ 61 _ 74 _ 87 _ 51 __ 769 (3)
    05 667 Tae laidir _______86 _ 76 _ 76 _ 46 _ 47 _ 53 _ 57 _ 72 _ 55 _ 69 _ 38 _ 76 __ 751 (6)
    06 663 waterways______ 75 _ 75 _ 58 _ 66 _ 75 _ 75 _ 72 _ 50 _ 60 _ 57 _ 40 _ 41 __ 744 (8t)
    07 655 Joe Public ______ 28 _ 63 _ 65 _ 72 _ 63 _ 59 _ 62 _ 49 _ 72 _ 70 _ 60 _ 69 __ 732 (10)
    08 653 M.T. Cranium ____46 _ 62 _ 78 _ 66 _ 69 _ 45 _ 58 _ 50 _ 57 _ 63 _ 88 _ 62 __ 744 (8t)
    09 651 Rameire ________69 _ 60 _ 70 _ 72 _ 59 _ 63 _ 55 _ 59 _ 63 _ 80 _ 50 _ 56 __ 756 (5)
    10 649 sryanbruen _____ 27 _ 63 _ 52 _ 76 _ 65 _ 72 _ 70 _ 76 _ 62 _ 72 _ 40 _ 41 __ 716 (12t)

    16 649 Norma L _______ 52 _ 65 _ 70 _ 57 _ 71 _ 61 _ 73 _ 55 _ 46 _ 64 _ 49 _ 81 __ 744 (8t)

    11 647 mickger844posts_ 78 _ 63 _ 89 _ 68 _ 79 _ 59 _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ 68 _ 36 _ 42 __ 683 (16)
    12 646 DOCARCH ______ 53 _ 62 _ 61 _ 71 _ 71 _ 58 _ 75 _ 62 _ 46 _ 71 _ 57 _ 58 __ 745 (7)
    13 640 Pauldry_________53 _ 69 _ 45 _ 80 _ 56 _ 45 _ 55 _ 65 _ 68 _ 60 _ 66 _ 68 __ 730 (11)
    14 630 JD_____________69 _ 77 _ 32 _ 71 _ 61 _ 45 _ 67 _ 47 _ 60 _ 62 _ 61 _ 55 __ 707 (15)
    15 628 Jpmarn ________ 64 _ 60 _ 47 _ 75 _ 73 _ 51 _ 55 _ 37 _ 81 _ 58 _ 51 _ 60 __ 712 (14)
    16 623 Rikand _________67 _ 76 _ 54 _ 54 _ 73 _ 60 _ 52 _ 60 _ 41 _ 71 _ 55 _ 53 __ 716 (12t)
    17 615 Dasa29 ________ 66 _ 58 _ 67 _ 53 _ 56 _ 53 _ 49 _ 75 _ 60 _ 78 _ 27 _ 33 __ 675 (18)
    18 614 Bsal ___________65 _ 66 _ 66 _ 60 _ 53 _ 45 _ 52 _ 68 _ 61 _ 73 _ 23 _ 50 __ 682 (17)
    19 610 200motels ______46 _ 68 _ 74 _ 61 _ 70 _ 22 _ 66 _ 55 _ 68 _ 37 _ 41 _ 61 __ 669 (20)
    20 601 John mac _______72 _ 57 _ 36 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 50 _ 66 _ 60 _ 83 _ 38 _ 46 __ 675 (19)
    21 590 kindredspirit ____ --- _ 35 _ 65 _ 58 _ 61 _ 41 _ 79 _ 79 _ 49 _ 66 _ 48 _ 44 __ 625 (21)

    xx ___ lostinashford ___ 69 _ 66 _ 63 _ 78 _ 77 _ 36 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 389
    xx ___ Schadenfreudia _ 65 _ 72 _ 58 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 260
    xx ___ Carnacalla _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 33 _ --- _ 52 _ --- _ 61 _ --- __ 218
    xx ___ omicron _______ 76 _ 43 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 191
    xx ___ Timmyboy _____ --- _ 53 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 53
    xx ___ Elmer Blooker __ --- _ --- _ 51 _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 51
    xx ___ Blizzard7 _____________________________________________________27 ___ 27
    ________________________________________________________________________________
    ________________________________________________________________________________


    Congratulations Sunflower3 for winning both December and the annual Boards award (best ten scores) and also to MrSkinner for holding on to the lead for the total score (all months), and to both of you for overtaking Con Sensus who had been leading. Lumi (3rd, 4th) and Dacogawa (4th, 3rd) had very good years, in fact it was quite a close competition and anyone in the top ten or even twelve had their moments. Joe Public made the largest move up the table, other than NormaL who managed to beat Con Sensus twice in the past two months.

    Well, it's on to 2017 and a whole new start for everyone, best of luck to you and I hope you enjoy the contest. The pleasure is all mine etc etc.


  • Registered Users Posts: 387 ✭✭mrskinner


    Sunflower3 well done.

    Thanks MT for all your work on the forecast competition.

    Looking forward to 2017!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 188 ✭✭sunflower3


    WOW - I never win anything - and to think I have won such a prestigious competition.. I feel very humbled!

    I came across the weather forum over the memorable period of Nov / Dec 2010 and have been an avid follower since. I am very amateur though and if I was to admit to a strategy when doing my monthly forecasts, I would say I like to stay close to Norma and Con (they seem like a nice couple!). Other than that I am afraid its a bit like picking a horse in the grand national where I look at the name rather than form etc. Apologies to all genuine forecasters who research charts but I guess that shows the unpredictable nature of predicting weather, even in the short term.

    Just to congratulate and thank Mrskinner who actually overall had more points than me....

    And all the posters who regularly contribute - you have all educated me over the past few years. I also love the quirky contributions and those that contribute from abroad (snaps in particular - jealous of that snow!)

    But most of all a massive thank you to MTC who puts so much work into the forum from the other side of the world... I am constantly in awe of the effort he makes - the stats involved in running this over the year, the daily forecasts, the measured alerts, the massive knowledge etc, etc, etc THANK YOU!

    Best of luck to everyone in 2017!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭200motels


    Well done to sunflower3 and a hugh thanks to MT for all the time and effort that he puts into the monthly contests and the daily forecasts, much appreciated by all.


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