FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58 · 02-09-2017 12:41am #1

Mod Note
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Meteorite58 · 02-09-2017 12:42am

The end of next week and over that weekend has the look of producing a lot of weather. The Jet looks to be well fired up and we seem to be moving into a very active Atlantic regime.

The charts below will go through changes over the next week but they have the makings of producing some fairly wet and windy weather towards next week end and the days after.

8LEVFOY.gif?1

A long way off but as for Hurricane Irma it would seem to me that if it follows something like the path of the run below that it could pump a lot of moisture and energy northwards fueling up Depressions making their way over towards us in a couple of weeks time.

Meteorite58 · 02-09-2017 12:27pm

A long way off but for a few runs now a lively deepening LP showing up on the models for next weekend. First storm of the Autumn ?

jfK0GQf.gif?1

Meteorite58 · 03-09-2017 11:34am

If it forms it looks fast moving, models showing it could easily go South of Ireland, taking the winds towards the S of Engalnd / France, and moving into the N sea where it might deepen to it's lowest pressure, will see, lots of twists and turns no doubt.

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/904227594551402496

Meteorite58 · 04-09-2017 9:12pm

Looking through the charts and looks like moving into a windy weekend with the main models showing a deep area of LP close to Ireland around Sun /Mon, too far out to pinpoint . There has been evidence from the models over the last couple of days of potential for an unsettled period from around next Sun / Mon through to Weds / Thurs with possibly a succession of deep areas of LP passing close to the country. The charts below will change no doubt in timing and tracking but giving an idea of what is showing at the moment .

The Jet charts look very fueled up at times over the next Week or so and passing over us at times.

Donegal Storm · 05-09-2017 7:49pm

Still showing this evening on the ECMWF, could be the first real blast of autumn this weekend

Meteorite58 · 06-09-2017 12:29am

Still showing this evening on the ECMWF, could be the first real blast of autumn this weekend

Yea looking through the models they are all pointing to potentially rough weather over the weekend. The GFS which was a bit all over the place seems to have come back in line with the other models which have been quite consistent highlighting this deepening LP around Sun / Mon.

Fri Sat NW winds and blustery leading into potentially very windy or stormy on Sun into Mon. At this stage most of the winds showing up along the Atlantic seaboard and later the S coasts. Looks cool and showery and possibly quite wet on Sun. Certainly no Indian Summer in sight.

All subject to change of course being 114 - 120 hrs away.

squarecircles · 14-09-2017 3:44pm

strong winds possible next friday on the 00z and 06z GFS

Donegal Storm · 16-09-2017 7:29pm

We can dream :rolleyes:

Some interesting model output at the moment though with Jose coming into the north Atlantic mid week as potentially a very strong storm, hopefully it'll kickstart a pattern change

This chart for Wednesday looks interesting as well with potential for an active front

Meteorite58 · 16-09-2017 7:32pm

The models are a bit all over the place the latter part of next week, probably as a result of trying to figure out where Jose will end up and how it's energy will disperse. The GFS has been showing a very deep vigorous depression ( 963 hPa :eek: ) around next Fri Sat ( very wet too ) although the other models dont show it as deep and holding it well away from Ireland . The run below shows Jose skirting by the E coast of the USA and regaining strength 940 hPa ??? making it's way up towards Iceland . The Jet looks very strong at times .Will be interesting watching the track and strength to see what transpires.

7HyscQm.gif?1

Meteorite58 · 17-09-2017 7:40pm

Next Friday / Saturdays deep depression shown to stay well off the coast in the latest runs by the three main models. Looks like we will be clipped by some frontal rain and winds ( possibly heavy rain I would think ).

WaivEMt.gif?1

Donegal Storm · 18-09-2017 4:56pm

ECMWF still hinting at this, gets into motion around 168z, hopefully its actually on to something

Meteorite58 · 19-09-2017 12:30am

Just going to put up these charts here to see how accurate the ECM might be ( been doing very well lately ). Long long way off but Hurricane Maria is forecast to veer off to the NW around the weekend and then track Northwestwards off the E cost of the US, possibly interacting with the remnants of Jose , the ECM then shows it taking a track towards Ireland around Fri / Sat 30th ( at this stage an extra tropical storm perhaps and if it did come near our shores it would probably contain a mild humid airmass ). Not beyond the bounds of possibility yet so much could change in the mean time.

2j3dCRj.gif?1

Donegal Storm · 20-09-2017 11:11pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

ECMWF still hinting at this, gets into motion around 168z, hopefully its actually on to something

Rather predictably this forecast has now been dropped in favour of a cool, windy wet week instead

Meteorite58 · 21-09-2017 9:00pm

Rather predictably this forecast has now been dropped in favour of a cool, windy wet week instead

So hard to keep track of the models at the moment. They keep chopping and changing more so now as the seasons change and from the energy being released by all the Tropical activity. Saw your post Donegal Storm about Hurricane Maria in the other thread. It seems to take a slow moving track for about 7 days off the E coast of the USA and then the GFS has it as probably an extra tropical storm hurtling across the Atlantic until it arrives at the S of Ireland and gets absorbed into another area of LP and does a a bit of a dance over Ireland, all the time strengthening around Tues 3 -4 Oct , a full 12 days away. Makes for an Interesting chart to look at but yes probably looking completely different in another couple of runs. Will Keep an eye on it to be sure though

Meteorite58 · 21-09-2017 9:30pm

An interesting couple of charts from the ECM has the remnants cross a similar track but a couple of days earlier, and note the last frame on the bottom chart with another area of LP off the N coast.

Note 850 hPa wind Chart

Meteorite58 · 22-09-2017 2:31pm

Models in disaray this afternoon with some complete different scenarios . The gfs keeps ex Maria heading towards Ireland in a weaker state and interacting with other areas of LP around the 2nd. Looks like a wet spell of weather , maybe very wet if this were to happen.

The ECM has Maria heading for Greenland on the latest run with areas of LP near Ireland around the same dates as the GFS but also showing longwave ridging in the Atlantic making a move towards Ireland at the end of the run.

Wouldn't be surprised if this run was an outlier and might come back more in line with the GFS on the next run ??? Will see.

Meteorite58 · 23-09-2017 12:16am

After an earlier outlier the ECM came back to its original track for the remnants of Maria, the GFS just after rolling out shows Maria take a track towards Ireland and end up as a very deep storm and looks mighty powerful in this run ( accompanied by a host of depressions ). Long, long way off, and no way certain, could easily end up in Iceland but interesting nonetheless.

pabgCor.gif?1

Meteorite58 · 23-09-2017 12:24pm

The GFS this morning has no resemblance to the ones posted earlier, has Maria heading towards Greenland . The ECM is keeping more to its previous track of sending the remnants of Maria towards Ireland where it probably gets absorbed by other weather systems, looks like an unsettled period of weather from the 30 - 3 of Oct .

This seems to be the pattern when ex Hurricanes, ex tropical storms are released into our latitudes , the models struggle and have a hard time trying to compute them . Maybe it is asking too much of them to be so accurate in the 6- 10 day time frame.

Meteorite58 · 23-09-2017 6:10pm

Well the latest run from the GFS is back on track and shows not only the hefty remnants of Maria reaching our shores but also having absorbed what I think is the newly formed Tropical Storm Lee, two for the price of one :pac:

No shortage of LP activity it would seem.

W3Kf6Wb.gif?1

Meteorite58 · 23-09-2017 6:15pm

Powerful Jet

Meteorite58 · 23-09-2017 6:49pm

From EUStorm

'The potential for a very strong cyclone to grace NW Europe late next weekend is a reality. GFS is beginning to play this card on a regular basis now for October 2nd. It's a caesium of time away in terms of forecasting with any confidence but having some experience this is possible! The Jet Stream is in a perfect position to guide this system into NW Europe, the SST's are at their warmest this time of year in the North Atlantic. It's a matter of terminology and 7 degrees that does not allow NW Europe "us" to call this a Hurricane, rather a "deep area of low pressure" that is capable of producing Hurricane force winds! make of that what you will.
The Atlantic basin has been very active this season as we have all seen and will have a knock-on effect during this winter.
It's far to early to bring exact details and I hope GFS decides differently on this one! It's October "windy month" a storm of this magnitude will cause major disruption of all kinds, trees are still fully laden! storm surge will be a factor, people will not be prepared and will be out on the roads.
Keep posted with EU Storm Map and expect more details as they become clearer this week and we will begin to look at the track and the areas potentially at risk.

squarecircles · 24-09-2017 12:00am

Flip flopped again on the 18z gfs, storm winding itseft up to Iceland,eventually leading to a build of high pressure over Ireland from a scandi high.

Meteorite58 · 24-09-2017 6:11pm

Big difference between all the models now. First looking at the LP fro next Fri , GFS showing it much further off shore, nearer to Iceland then to Ireland.

The UKMO brings it nearer to Ireland, this would seem to reflect Met Eireanns forecast.

The ECMWF is somewhere in between the two I would think, leaning towards the UKMO.

After that it's anyone's guess. I think from looking across the models it will be an unsettled wet weekend. There after I think the ECMWF has been the better performing model. I t shows ex Maria form a large depression/storm after linking up with an area of LP coming out of Greenland and making it to our shores sometime around the 4th. Not too dissimilar to the chart above from the 21st .

8cNL4VE.gif?1

Meteorite58 · 24-09-2017 8:52pm

The 12z ECMWF has taken the remnants of Maria on a new track after it clears the East coast of the US towards Spain! This is a break from a good few previous runs. An outlier perhaps ? Or else I'm putting too much trust in it

PokeHerKing · 25-09-2017 10:53am

I'm playing golf this wknd in sligo folks, is there any chance I won't be playing in a gale?

squarecircles · 25-09-2017 11:44am

:eek:

[IMG]https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20170925/00/183/ukgust.png[/IMG update; GFS 06z brings it up to Iceland instead[/img]

Donegal Storm · 25-09-2017 5:37pm

Direct hit from Maria on both ECMWF and GFS this afternoon, GFS in particular interesting with nearly 48 hours of likely storm force winds!

pad199207 · 25-09-2017 6:40pm

If it’s still showing the same strength and track by Friday it will certainly have to be watched

Darwin · 25-09-2017 7:56pm

12z ECM model has it further south and more flabby looking. Still a lot of uncertainty of course!

pauldry · 25-09-2017 8:30pm

For some time a stormy end to September/start to October has been mooted.

Will it materialize?

Certainly windy at the least...potentially damaging

FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST