Cold week ahead, change is on the way ............

MrFrisp · 15-03-2013 3:49pm

RTE weather/M.E. has a chance of snow showers for tomorrow..

Tomorrow
Tomorrow, Saturday, will be a cold day, with sunny spells and showers of rain or hail. The showers will be well-scattered in most areas, but in the south, showers will be heavy and prolonged and they might turn to sleet or snow. Maximum temperatures 5 to 8 Celsius, in a moderate mainly northeast wind.

http://www.rte.ie/weather/
.

Rebelbrowser · 15-03-2013 3:56pm

I'd have thought talk of snow tonight was mad but just looked at the NAE and it shows thickness at 522, dew points ranging to 2 to -3 but uppers only ranging -3 to -5. Most importantly however it shows plenty pink over the country from 6 to 9pm.... See http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=6&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Still v sceptical but over high ground looks to me as though snow is v highly probable this evening.... As for low down, you can't fully rule it out.

Elmer Blooker · 15-03-2013 4:02pm

dopolahpec wrote: »

Fat lady might be singing soon. Looks mild at end of GFS.

I'd be very surprised if the GFS didn't have it turning mild in FI. The UKMO further outlook says it all - "probably turning milder next weekend....... slow to reach northern areas with a continuing risk of snow" - so a lot of uncertainty at the moment.
Belmullet and Malin only 4c now, that must be 5 to 6 degrees below normal for the time of year? I presume afternoon temps should be hitting 10 or thereabouts?

Weathering · 15-03-2013 4:05pm

BbcNIweather twitter mentioned a biting Eastery next Tuesday with Snow showers and a mix of rail/hail/sleet and possible snow showers tomorrow

Nabber · 15-03-2013 4:37pm

In fairness it has to turn mild some day, the sun presence is very noticeable now.

Elmer Blooker · 15-03-2013 5:01pm

down to 2c in Belmullet now.

Larbre34 · 15-03-2013 5:06pm

Trust the mleeeedin Shannon radar to be off the air, probably be gone for the weekend

15-03-2013 5:29pm

had thunder-hail here few mins ago

(maybe that thunder was neighbours, they are moving stuff

wildefalcon · 15-03-2013 5:43pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

Trust the mleeeedin Shannon radar to be off the air, probably be gone for the weekend

It's back. For now.

Gonzo · 15-03-2013 5:55pm

shower of sleet about 30 minutes ago. All these cold spells are too little too late. I am prepared to wait now till next November before getting excited again, in the meanwhile I am dying for a half decent summer that does not consist of low to mid teen temps on a weekly basis with lashings of rain. Im more sick of bad summers than boring winters.

snaps · 15-03-2013 6:23pm

Don't understand bellmullet showing 2c? I'm currently reporting 9c on both car and weather station? I'm not a million miles from bellmullet?

downwiththatsor · 15-03-2013 7:24pm

Ecmwf keeping it cold at 120hrs

decies · 15-03-2013 7:25pm

Getting milder from next Thursday folks we will be grand don't worry

ninebeanrows · 15-03-2013 7:47pm

Can't help myself :P

ECM at 168hrs would give blizzards for many areas of Ireland and the UK. The ECM 12z is very good for cold, with the more intense cold making over Ireland next week.

ECM snow forecasts shows the low approaching from the southwest Thursday giving a period of snow and the 12z run would increase this risk further.

patneve2 · 15-03-2013 7:49pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Can't help myself :P

ECM at 168hrs would give blizzards for many areas of Ireland and the UK. The ECM 12z is very good for cold, with the more intense cold making over Ireland next week.

ECM snow forecasts shows the low approaching from the southwest Thursday giving a period of snow and the 12z run would increase this risk further.

Praying that when that Atlantic LP approaches us it elongates and drags the bitter air over Scandinavia. Need elongated LP pleasseee :rolleyes:

Elmer Blooker · 15-03-2013 7:56pm

a couple of hundred miles further south?
why not with such a powerful block.

ECM0-192.GIF?15-0

ninebeanrows · 15-03-2013 8:01pm

Haha The ECM would give astonishing snow depths in parts of the north which snow lasting for 48hrs or more! Obviously not going to happen but interesting to see the idea of taking the low further south. There is a substantial block to the north.

pauldry · 15-03-2013 8:03pm

Sleet shower in Sligo 3c

JanuarySnowstor · 15-03-2013 8:18pm

Yes certainly an interesting ECM, of course supported by gfs to an extent
It now looks like the mild air will not win out and eventhough it may be marginal for snow at times there is no route back to mild for now.
We aint a million miles away from something special and with such deep cold to our East it's certainly not too late for the white stuff

ninebeanrows · 15-03-2013 10:42pm

ECM Ensemble suite suggesting increased confidence of a more continental easterly flow (with lower dew-points) from Tuesday with increased risk of snow to low levels especially in the east. Thereafter the Ensemble suite struggles to bring the low pressure far north and there is potential for the cold air to row back over Ireland next weekend.

A very wintry outlook which would have the boards weather servers in melt-down if it were January.

ninebeanrows · 15-03-2013 10:45pm

The Japanese model would have us heading for our coldest March on record if it were to occur.

Weathering · 15-03-2013 10:47pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

The Japanese model would have us heading for our coldest March on record if it were to occur.

Crazy Japanese Bast.ards

ninebeanrows · 15-03-2013 11:03pm

Of note, the temperature in the Irish Sea is down to 7.2c at M2. So air modification will be less than earlier in the winter, which could help to top the balance.

ninebeanrows · 15-03-2013 11:04pm

A nice chart at 108hrs from the 18z GFS for your evenings musing.

gfs-2-108.png?18?18

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 15-03-2013 11:04pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

A nice chart at 108hrs from the 18z GFS for your evenings musing.

Oh you :pac:

ninebeanrows · 15-03-2013 11:07pm

The high to the north looks to be very significant, you'd have to say odds on it all shifting another good chunk further south in the future runs is likely.

downwiththatsor · 15-03-2013 11:15pm

Looks cold for the parades, nae will be interesting tomorrow.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/03/15/basis18/ukuk/prty/13031712_2_1518.gif

Intense precipitation blob on the way for the south west

3hr-rain.gif?2218

patneve2 · 15-03-2013 11:20pm

Wow 18z GFS upgrades mid-week potential

Elmer Blooker · 16-03-2013 12:25am

Weathercheck wrote: »

The Japanese model would have us heading for our coldest March on record if it were to occur.

interesting to note that the coldest March of the 20th century was in 1962 and another very cold March was 1916, both of the following winters were severe.

The first ramp for winter 2013/14 I think.

dexter647 · 16-03-2013 12:37am

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

interesting to note that the coldest March of the 20th century was in 1962 and another very cold March was 1916, both of the following winters were severe.
The first ramp for winter 2013/14 I think.

Cold week ahead, change is on the way ............

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